The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 9: Wide Receivers
There’s no good way to put this, so I’m just going to put it.
I’m of the opinion that, if you’ve already had sex with a person two times in one night, foreplay is unnecessary if you’re going back for thirds. In this instance, I think that the third act of intercourse should last as short of a time as possible, because you need to save your strength and make sure that you have enough time for the inevitable fourth sexual act of the evening.
I guess that’s my way of saying that I’ve done two long-ish intros for this week’s QB Breakdown and RB Breakdown — which you should read, by the way — and I still have the TE Breakdown to do after this.
So instead of writing a proper introduction . . . I just wrote an introduction about fast sex and my desire not to write an introduction. What can I say? Sometimes foreplay just happens.
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s WR Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers a ton of straight-up stone dopeness in only 12:39.
Moving on . . .
WR Pricing
You know the drill. As I pointed out in the WR Breakdown last week — and have pointed out for several weeks now — our Bargain Rating metric indicates that DraftKings WRs are more expensive than all the Coors Lite that a variety of people in the daily fantasy sports industry owe me.
#SkillGamePropLife4Ever
For instance, not till $5,600 DK do we find a WR with a Bargain Rating higher than 50 percent. The most expensive DK WR has a zero percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-salaried player on the whole slate. That same player at FD has only the third-highest salary among all players — behind a running back and quarterback.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that eight of the 12-highest salaries in the slate belong to WRs. DK is really valuing its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, five of the 12-highest salaries belong to WRs.
There’s a disparity in WR pricing between DK and FD, and it’s significant.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big Five
This week, the same five guys have the highest DK and FD WR salaries:
• Julio Jones: $9,600 DK (WR1), $9,000 FD (WR1)
• Antonio Brown: $8,900 DK (WR2), $8,700 FD (WR3)
• Odell Beckham: $8,800 DK (WR3), $8,900 FD (WR2)
• Mike Evans: $8,500 DK (WR4), $8,300 FD (WR4)
• Jordy Nelson: $7,800 DK (WR5), $8,200 FD (WR5)
To quote myself . . .
To quote T-Rex: “Get it on / Bang a gong / Get it on.”
You heard the man!
Supreme Being
It was fine while it lasted. Up to Week 8, Julio seemed like the master of the universe. He led the league with 118.6 receiving yards per game (YPG) and could conceivably do no wrong as the highest-priced player on both sites.
And then he did wrong in Week 8, turning five targets into a 3-29-0 stat line.
Here’s the truth about Julio: For a guy who last year led the league in receptions and yards and who gets a high percentage of his production not from touchdowns, Julio is an incredibly TD-dependent producer. Per RotoViz:
When Julio has scored a TD this year, he’s been a DFS hammer. When he hasn’t scored a TD, he’s been a nail. Per our Trends tool:
It’s obvious that when WRs don’t score TDs they won’t do as well as when they do score — but Julio’s splits are extreme. When Julio fails to score, he doesn’t just have a negative Plus/Minus. He basically hits the FantasyLabs definition of “Dud,” which leads to two thoughts:
- At his price, Julio is unrosterable in cash. He carries too much risk.
- At his ownership, Julio is unrosterable in guaranteed prize pools. If you want to be underweight on him in GPPs, that’s fine. That’s even ideal. But you can’t be with the rest of the field in ownership, because when Julio hits a quarter to a third of the field gets the same benefit and when he doesn’t hit he’s destroyed a quarter to a third of your lineups.
Also, why the f*ck am I even talking about Julio anyway? He plays in the Thursday night game.
The Falcons are four-point road favorites with an implied Vegas total of 27.25 points. Per our Matchups tool, Julio is likely to run the majority of his routes against Buccaneers cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III and Jude Adjei-Barimah, who have extremely poor Pro Football Focus coverage grades of 45.3 and 49.7.
On top of that, the Bucs are 20th in pass defense against No. 1 WRs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Per John Proctor’s WR/CB Matchups piece for the week, “This should be considered a major upgrade for Julio.”
The Bucs defensively are 20th and 26th with 2.13 points and 0.048 INTs per drive.
I don’t think that this is going to be a game in which Julio destroys lineups, but I’m not about to risk it on a Thursday night.
He Survived
In Week 7 without QB Ben Roethlisberger, AB survived, turning 11 targets into seven receptions for 106 scoreless yards. He even ran the ball once for 13 yards.
In the slate, Brown is the WR1 and WR2 with 21.16 DK and 16.46 FD points per game (PPG).
The Steelers are implied to score 21.5 points on the road in a pick’em against Baltimore, who have a funnel defense that is 24th in pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Peter, Adam Levitan, and Davis Mattek talked about Brown as one of this week’s chalkiest receivers. Within our Player Models, he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 and 31-40 percent on DK and FD. Unsurprisingly, he’s the highest-rated FD WR in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models.
He’s the chalk du jour.
Is He Not Really a Giant?
Given OBJ’s history of NFL production, it might be a little surprising that he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of only five to eight and nine to 12 percent on DK and FD.
I think that there are two main causes:
- The Giants are hosting the Eagles, who are first in defensive DVOA and pass DVOA. They are second in pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs. OBJ doesn’t have a particularly easy matchup.
- OBJ’s 2016 production has left a lot to be desired. To wit:
That graphic looks just as bad for DK. But not everything is bad for OBJ. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Beckham over the last four games leads the Giants with 24.54 percent of their targets . . .
. . . and 39.00 percent of the Air Yards:
Air Yards is a metric created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer, and it helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The large difference between OBJ’s market share of targets and Air Yards is important. OBJ’s not just getting random targets. He’s getting the ball down the field. He’s getting premium targets that could result in the rapid accumulation of fantasy points.
And in terms of raw production, OBJ’s really not doing that poorly. Here’s what he did last year through seven games . . .
. . . and here’s what he’s done this year through seven games:
That’s pretty comparable. It’s OK for you not to like OBJ’s matchup, but he’s still a stud whom we’re projecting to have fairly low ownership — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
Another TNFer
Evans leads the NFL with 12.3 targets and 0.86 TDs per game. He’s the slate’s DK WR2 and FD WR1 in PPG:
Of course there are two things not to like about Evans this week:
- Like Julio, he plays on TNF and as a result might see inflated ownership . . . although there’s the possibility that his lackluster performance last week on massive ownership could result in his going underowned this week.
- Per our Matchups tool, Evans is expected to run many of his routes against Falcons CB Desmond Trufant, who has an above-average PFF coverage grade of 81.0. It’s probable that Trufant will even shadow him, as he has done with other No. 1 WRs this season.
I’m not saying that you can’t roster Evans. He has a top-six projection in our Models and could have a strong week. But the Thursday game and shadow coverage might be enough to make a lot of sharp DFS players want to pivot.
More Shadow Coverage
I don’t really want to throw shade at Jordy, because he’s one of my favorite NFL players, and he’s tied with Evans for the NFL lead in TDs per game at 0.86. He’s getting a respectable 8.57 targets per game. He leads the Packers with 35.27 percent of the team’s Air Yards over the last four games.
But he hasn’t been a profitable DFS asset this season:
If you look at the numbers, it may seem as if Jordy hasn’t cost you a lot. His season-long PPG is close to his average salary-based expectation, and he’s hit his expectations in three out of seven weeks. That’s not bad.
But you don’t pay up for someone who is merely ‘not bad.’ You pay up for someone who has the potential to contribute to a GPP-winning effort or a powerhouse cash lineup. Jordy has an underappreciated opportunity cost. He’s gone over 20 fantasy points in only one game this season. As he’s been used right now, he just doesn’t have the upside you probably want him to have given what you need to invest to roster him.
He does lead the team with five targets inside the 10-yard line over the last four games, but . . .
. . . lots of other WRs also get targets near the goal line, including guys you hadn’t heard of till last week.
Look — Jordy has a serious chance to tear sh*t up this game. The Packers are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 30.75 points against the Colts, whose defense is 31st in DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. The Colts are 30th, 27th, and 32nd with 38.69 yards, 2.50 points, and 0.24 INTs per defensive drive.
Per our Matchups tool, Jordy is likely to run a lot of his routes against CB Vontae Davis, who might even shadow Nelson. Davis is supposed to be decent. I guess? He has an average PFF coverage grade of 72.6, which isn’t horrible, but that makes him PFF’s 63rd-ranked cover corner. Are we seriously assuming that Jordy can’t beat Davis in single coverage?
We’re projecting Nelson for five to eight and 13-16 percent ownership on DK and FD. If you decide to go underweight on Nelson, you probably shouldn’t do it out of fear of his matchup with Davis. You should do it because, to this point in the season, he hasn’t been getting the targets and production necessary to give him the upside that justifies his salary.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Donte Moncrief ($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD): He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 and 31-40 percent at DK and FD. In his two complete games, he has 16.2 DK and 13.70 FD PPG with 100 percent Consistency. Over the last two years, he’s scored seven TDs in his 10 games with QB Andrew Luck:
That ownership is aggressive, but it makes sense if Indy’s No. 1 WR doesn’t play.
Ty Montgomery ($5,800 DK WR, $6,600 FD RB): The Colts are 31st in pass DVOA against RBs, and Montgomery was the GOAT in his two games this season at the position:
To quote Peter Frampton: “Do you feel like I do?”
Davante Adams ($5,900 DK, $7,100 FD): Adams is second on the Packers with 57 targets and five TDs and first with 424 yards receiving. To this point in the season, he’s been a much better DFS play than Jordy or Randall Cobb:
Per our Matchups tool, he’s slated to run most of his routes against Colts CB Patrick Robinson, who ranks as PFF’s 86th cover man with a poor 50.6 grade in coverage. Adams has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17-20 percent.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,800 DK, $7,400 FD): We’re projecting Benjamin to have ownership no higher than six percent, and we’re also expecting him to run most of his routes against Rams CB Troy Hill, who is 5’11” and 182 lbs. He ranks 114th (out of 118) with an abysmal 38.7 PFF grade in coverage. Just to make this clear: K-Benjy is 6’5″ and 245 lbs. He’s the No. 1 WR for the reigning NFL MVP.
“Um, I’ll take ‘Unfair Mismatches’ for $800, Alex.”
Dez Bryant ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD): When else are you going to be able to get an elite TD producer at five to eight percent ownership playing against a team that is 30th in pass DVOA and 31st against No. 1 WRs?
Where was I?
Tyreek Hill ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD): The Chiefs are at home against the Jaguars, who have an implied total of only 18.25 points and defensively are 28th in pass DVOA against WRs other than a team’s No. 1 or No. 2 WR. Tyreek has speed, consistent touches, and four TDs in seven games. When I say, “Double,” you say, “Dipsh*t.”
Stefon Diggs ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD): He’s playing against the Lions this week. You either know what that means or you don’t.
Sammie Coates ($4,300 DK, $5,500 FD): Shhhhh!!!
Johnny Holton ($3,000 DK, $0 FD): Rostering Holton might be the chalkiest contrarian DFS tactic ever.
The Super Models
Here are the non-Antonio WRs at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Jarvis Landry: $7,100 DK, $7,600 FD
• T.Y. Hilton: $7,600 DK, $7,600 FD
• Jordan Matthews: $5,700 DK, $5,800 FD
• Dorial Green-Beckham: $3,000 DK, $5,000 FD
• Dontrelle Inman: $3,100 DK, $5,500 FD
Let’s slay.
The Miami Slot Machine
The Dolphins are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.75 points against the Jets, who are third in rush DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.
It’s amazing that I never get tired of that GIF.
We’re currently projecting Landry for 17-20 percent ownership. He’s the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model.
Thank You, Thank You, Thank You
When Hilton was healthy in Weeks 1-7, he was a WR1:
But he’s dealing with a hamstring injury that destroyed his Week 8, and Donte has returned to the lineup.
I’ll admit that there’s some noise in what I’m about to show you, but since Moncrief emerged last year he has been Hilton’s Fantasy Voldemort:
Neither can live while the other survives.
All of this is just to say that Hilton carries a ton of risk, even if he is the highest-rated FD WR in the Levitan Model. He’s been taken off the injury list and reportedly is ready to play this weekend. Still . . . rostering a speedster who sucked the previous week because of a hamstring injury isn’t the type of risk-seeking tactic I’d advise for cash games.
Sometimes the Simplest Things
Matthews is the highest-rated FD WR in the Bales Model. DGB, the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales Model.
What’s so special about these guys? They’re cheap, and they’re facing a Giants team that allows the most targets (26 per game) and the fourth-most receiving yards (193.7 YPG) to WRs.
That’s basically it. Pretty simple.
Never Did I Think . . .
That I would be writing a half-*ssed blurb about Inman or that he would be the highest-rated DK WR in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models.
Inman and also Tyrell Williams ($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD) and Travis Benjamin ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD) offer good value and have a nice matchup. Inman has a 99 percent DK Bargain Rating, and Tyrell and Benjamin have 90 and 94 percent Bargain Ratings on FD.
The Chargers are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Titans, whose funnel defense is 24th in pass DVOA.
If RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t steal all the TDs, and tight end Antonio Gates doesn’t accidentally catch a scoring reception, one of these three is likely to reward DFS investors.
The Coda
I wouldn’t say that was fast, but it was faster than the first two times, right?
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
