The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Week 9: Running Backs
Let’s do a quick recap of last week’s RB action:
Moving on . . .
As was the case last week, we have six teams on bye. Here are the RBs we won’t see in Week 9:
• David Johnson
• Lamar Miller
• Jeremy Hill
• Giovani Bernard
• LeGarrette Blount
• James White
• Jordan Howard
• Robert Kelley
A couple of thoughts:
- That’s a strong list of RBs unavailable to us.
- Did I actually just mention Kelley?
Last week, that guy was DraftKings RB17 and FanDuel RB12 with 14.7 fantasy points. That doesn’t seem great — and in the big picture it’s not — but in terms of Plus/Minus the uninspiring Kelley was a downright Week 8 WTF GOAT:
Is Kelley a talented RB? Someone we should actually miss this week?
Not at all.
In college, the undrafted rookie was a backup to Orleans Darkwa — if that means anything to you. The best that can be said about him is that in his second year he had 46 receptions for 340 yards and four touchdowns. That’s actually really good receiving production for a RB, but he absolutely sucked as a runner and, per Player Profiler, he’s basically a Matt Asiata-esque physical ‘talent’ with an 86.5 SPARQ-x that puts him literally in the bottom one percentile at his position.
At the same time, he’s a young-ish 5’11” and 226 lb. RB who can catch the ball. By the time Week 8 comes along, you take what you can get. When a guy like that gets 21 carries in a game, you don’t ask questions.
All of which is to say that the RB position is both immensely random and predictable. There’s so much attrition that each week new contributors emerge. That they are the ones who emerge is largely random. That they produce when given opportunities is fairly predictable. Their production might not be efficient, but if guys are given enough carries and targets — especially if some of them are near the goal line — then they’ll probably be productive enough.
Volume is everything. Each week, there will RB blood. Focus on the volume.
RB Pricing
As I highlighted in the RB Breakdown last week and several weeks before that, RB salaries are inflated on DK and deflated on FD (per our Bargain Rating metric).
You can still find some value on DK, but the RBs at the top of the salary scale tend to have the worst Bargain Ratings, so if you’re looking for discounted production on DK you’ll probably want to pay down. Or, phrased differently, if you pay up on DK, you’re not just getting an expensive RB. You’re getting an expensive RB priced at a premium. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
On FD, the relative value is everywhere. If you look at the FD Player Models, you’re basically swimming in green. If you like RBs — if they are crucial to your lineups and central to your strategies — it makes sense to get your exposure to some of the stud RBs on FD, where many of them have Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent.
The Big Four
The constitution of this week’s Big Four is symbolically perfect: The three guys with the highest PPG averages in the slate and then one big-bodied RB who is likely to get a lot of touches this week . . . if he’s healthy enough to play. Per our Trends tool:
Here they are, coincidentally priced in the same order by both sites:
• Ezekiel Elliott: $7,900 DK, $9,200 FD
• Le’Veon Bell: $7,700 DK, $8,700 FD
• DeMarco Murray: $7,600 DK, $8,100 FD
• Spencer Ware: $7,200 DK, $8,000 FD
A couple of things about these guys:
- On DK, these guys are available within a fairly tight salary range. On FD, there’s a sizable gap between Zeke and Bell and then Bell and the bottom half of the cohort.
- They are all three-down workhorses with good pass-catching skills. There aren’t many guys like them in the NFL.
Let’s go!
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
The Cowboys rookie leads the NFL with 799 yards rushing. The four backs who immediate trail him — DeMarco, Johnson, Miller, and Blount — have all played in eight games. Zeke has played in only seven.
I still think that it doesn’t make sense to draft a RB with a top-five pick — Derrick Henry, available with a second-round pick, probably could’ve been a stud on the Cowboys — but that’s separate from whether he’s a great DFS asset now that the Cowboys have him.
Basically, he’s Helen of Troy. He’s hot, but that doesn’t mean that we should’ve risked everything on him. And, yet, now that we have him — since we have him — since we’ve irresponsibly claimed him as ours — we might as well get as much enjoyment out of him as possible.
With 114.1 rushing yards per game (YPG), he’s easily the only RB in the league with a mark above 100. And he’s proven himself to be a competent receiver, with a catch rate of 83.3 percent. As a point of comparison: Le’Veon’s catch rate is 81.1 percent.
The Cowboys are 7.5-point road favorites implied to score 28 points against the Browns, who defensively are 30th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 31st in rush DVOA. They’re also 20th in pass DVOA against RBs.
Seriously, let’s just talk about how bad the Browns are. They are 27th and 28th with 35.53 yards and 2.51 points allowed per drive. They allow the NFL’s second-most rushing yards (124.6 YPG) to RBs. To big-bodied lead backs like Zeke they’re allowing an average of a TD per game.
Only once all year has Zeke not had at least 20 carries in a game. The Browns have allowed lead backs to accumulate 20 carries in 50 percent of their games, and in those games . . .
. . . the RBs have done well.
What are the odds that Zeke doesn’t hit 20 carries? — or that he doesn’t destroy the Browns with the voluminous carries he does get?
On the season Zeke is getting a healthy 25.29 opportunities per game, and over the last four games he has seven carries inside the 10-yard line (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report):
The Cowboys are the only team in the league to run more often than they pass, and Zeke is doing a lot with his opportunities, ranking second in the league in evaded tackles and runs of at least 15 yards.
Unsurprisingly, Zeke leads the slate with the highest RB projections and with eight DK and 13 FD Pro Trends. He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 21-25 percent on DK and 26-30 percent on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Zeke was the first Week 9 player we mentioned, with Davis Mattek saying, “He’s just going to completely smash this terrible run defense.”
This is the week of Zeke.
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
He’s played in only four games, but Bell is still the only RB in the entire slate with 100 percent Consistency Ratings. He’s the DK RB1 and FD RB2 in PPG for the slate:
He’s basically Le’Veon Balls.
We have no way of knowing if his usage to date is what we should expect to see going forward, especially since quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out in Week 7 and (per the FantasyLabs News feed) is expected back this week, but Bell’s averaging 17.25 rushes and 9.25 targets across four games with 78.41 percent of the Steelers’ carries and 23.87 percent of the targets — both of which are team-high marks. Per Player Profiler, Bell’s 91.4 percent Opportunity Share is first in the NFL (as is his 40.4 percent Juke Rate, by the way).
If there are two (minor) issues with Le’Veon, it’s these:
- Le’Veon doesn’t get touches near the goal line.
- The Steelers are on the road playing against the Ravens.
It’s true that Le’Veon doesn’t get the volume of goal-line opportunities that other workhorse backs get. This year he’s gotten only two opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Some workhorse RBs get that many opportunities per game. At the same time, Le’Veon is a top-three RB in PPG without scoring a TD yet.
For his first three years, Bell averaged one TD for every 189.4 scrimmage yards. At some point, Bell is going to experience some positive (and probably massive) TD reversion.
As far as Bell being on the road against the Ravens, it’s true that the Steelers find themselves as one-point underdogs with an implied Vegas total of only 21 points in a tough divisional contest, but Bell has basically always been himself against the AFC North. Per RotoViz:
In fact, Bell has done well on the road against the Ravens previously:
The sample is small, but there’s little reason to believe that Bell can’t replicate his past success.
The Ravens (of course) are good. They’re sixth in defensive DVOA and first against the run. On top of that, they are second, seventh, fifth, and first with 23.75 yards, 1.60 points, 1.55 turnovers, and 5.02 plays per defensive drive. In theory, they present Bell with a tough matchup.
In practice, however, Bell has done remarkably well against top-10 run defenses over the past two years:
Throughout his career he’s been better on the road than at home . . .
. . . and he has neutral Roethlisberger splits:
With the slate’s second-highest RB projections, Bell is very chalky with 21-25 and 17-20 percent FantasyLabs ownership projections on DK and FD.
In almost any scenario, Bell is a strong play.
The Murracle
DeMarco injured his toe and has been limited in practice this week but is expected to play. The Titans are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.25 points against the Chargers, whose funnel defense is 20th in rush DVOA and looks something like . . .
DeMarco rivals Le’Veon with 22.79 DK and 19.41 FD PPG on the season, accumulating 65.73 percent of the Titans’ rushes and 13.64 percent of the targets. He leads his team in rushes (10) and targets (two) inside the 10-yard line over the last four games.
While the Titans aren’t implied to score many points, Murray has done well to this point on a team that averages only 22.8 PPG, capturing 30.7 percent of the team’s scrimmage yardage and 36.4 percent of its TDs. Murray doesn’t seem likely to struggle against a Chargers team allowing 31.5 DK and 26.9 FD PPG to RBs — the fourth-highest marks in the league.
DeMarco is expected to be chalky, with FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17-20 percent.
Beware of Ware
Entering Week 8, Ware was RB6 with 18.95 DK and 16.20 FD PPG to go along with +7.03 DK and +8.09 FD Plus/Minus values. Nine touches into a game against the team with the league’s worst run DVOA, Ware suffered a concussion. And he’s officially been declared out for Week 9.
With Jamaal Charles placed on the injured reserve a few days ago, Charcandrick West is the starting RB for the Chiefs this weekend.
You remember West? When JC tore his ACL last year, West was the guy who replaced him capably before being replaced by Ware. That Ware now is likely to be replaced for this game by West, who just replaced JC as the team’s No. 2 RB earlier in the week, seems appropriate.
On the carousel of RB randomness, we are bound to see the same horses circle back around every once in a while.
With Ware out, #AllTheWest is in full effect. Last year, West was a pretty competent injury fill-in for Charles when he was the lead back:
This week, he’s essentially the only established RB on the team, and he has a clear path to 20 touches in a game in which the Chiefs are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Jaguars — or the JAGs (#NailedIt) — who defensively are 27th in rush DVOA and have allowed literally every RB with at least 15 carries against them this year to score a TD:
With QB Alex Smith (concussion) already ruled out, the Chiefs might rely more on the running game than usual, in which case West has a good chance of dominating the production for the team.
Right now, West ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD) is the chalk. He has projected ownership of 41-plus and 31-40 percent on DK and FD.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Melvin Gordon ($6,300 DK, $7,800 FD): It’s not easy to find discounted but somewhat expensive RBs on DK, but MG3 is as close as it gets. He’s the only DK RB with a top-12 salary who has a Bargain Rating above 40 percent, and he leads the slate with eight DK Pro Trends.
That said . . . Gordon isn’t good at football. He’s a volume-bloated, inefficient, TD-reliant back . . . but volume is everything, and he’s gotten an obscene 88 percent of his team’s carries and nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last month. He leads the league with 10 TDs from scrimmage and has scored against every team he’s played except for the Broncos.
It almost doesn’t matter the circumstances in which MG3 plays. He leads the NFL in carries. He also leads the league in TDs rushing inside the 10- and five-yard lines. The Chargers are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Titans.
Todd Gurley ($5,800 DK, $7,600 FD): He’s the first RB who is relatively cheaper on DK than FD with a 67 percent Bargain Rating. The Rams are three-point home underdogs implied to score 20.75 points against the Panthers, who are fifth in rush DVOA.
On the one hand, it’s not as good a matchup for Gurley. On the other hand, it’s hard to ignore a guy who’s gotten six carries inside the 10-yard line over the last four games and a minimum of 18 opportunities each game this season. It’s especially notable that Gurley is averaging 5.25 targets per game over the last month.
Jonathan Stewart ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD): For the first time in maybe the last seven years, J-Stew is the Panthers’ goal-line back, with nine carries inside the 10-yard line through the team’s last four games.
He’s the lead back on a team scoring the fourth-most points in the league (27.3 PPG), and in his two games since returning from injury he’s averaged 22 rushes and 1.5 targets for 102.5 yards and two TDs per game.
Devontae Booker ($6,400 DK, $7,000 FD): In Booker’s two games as the lead back, he’s averaged 17.05 DK and 15.05 FD PPG, even though he missed some snaps due to a shoulder injury last week. The Broncos are implied to score 21.75 points on the road in a pick’em against the Raiders, who this year have given up six TDs to the six RBs who have rushed against them at least 15 times:
With an average of 18 carries and four targets for 85.5 yards, three receptions, and one TD per game, Booker is likely to stay involved and productive in this game.
Theo Riddick ($4,900 DK, $6,600 FD): One of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL is ‘cheap’ at DK with a Bargain Rating of 60 percent. He’s averaging 10.2 rushes and 7.2 targets for 82.3 yards and 0.83 TDs per game. The Lions are six-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 17.5 points against the Vikings, who are 11th in rush DVOA.
This situation might seem horrible for Riddick, but the Vikings have something of a funnel defense (they’re fourth in pass DVOA), and they’re actually 23rd in pass DVOA against RBs. Riddick is projected for five to eight and two to four percent ownership on DK and FD.
Darren Sproles ($3,900 DK, $4,800 FD): In his five games this year with at least eight opportunities, Sproles has been productive:
What’s bizarre to consider is that, regardless of whether Sproles becomes the ‘lead back,’ he’s due for some positive TD reversion. Up to this season, he’s averaged one TD for every 146.3 yards — and that’s not counting his nine TDs as a return man. This year, he has only one scrimmage TD on 46 rush attempts, 28 targets, and 455 yards.
If Sproles continues to get his touches and yards, the TDs should come.
Matt Asiata ($4,300 DK, $6,000 FD): With a ‘strong’ 60 percent DK Bargain Rating, the least inspiring RB on the planet has been bearable over the last three weeks:
I mean . . .
. . . let’s not pretend as if this guy didn’t score 10 TDs two years ago. Also, with the resignation of former offensive coordinator Norv Turner, it’s possible that Asiata might benefit from the shakeup, even with Jerick McKinnon (ankle) likely to return to action in Week 9.
We have Asiata projected for two to four and zero to one percent ownership on DK and FD.
LeSean McCoy ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD) and Mike Gillislee ($4,100 DK, $5,900 FD): If McCoy (hamstring) ‘plays,’ neither guy is desirable. If McCoy is out, then Gillislee might be desirable. The Bills are seven-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Seahawks, who are second in rush DVOA and allowing only 18.1 DK and 14.5 FD PPG to RBs — the lowest and second-lowest marks in the NFL.
At the same time, if McCoy is out then Gillislee will have a clear path to 15 touches, and the Seahawks are allowing 106.6 scrimmage YPG to RBs. Last week Gillislee turned his 15 touches into 18.4 DK and 16.9 FD points against the Patriots, who at the time were fifth in rush DVOA.
With news breaking that McCoy seems likely to play, rostering either of these guys might be hard to do.
Terrance West ($4,700 DK, $6,400 FD): West was held to only eight carries against the Jets in Week 7 before the Ravens’ Week 8 bye, but he still easily led the team in carries and has an elite 75.90 percent of the team’s rushes over the last four games:
He also has a team-high eight opportunities inside the 10-yard line over that time span.
The Ravens are one-point home favorites implied to score 22 points against the Steelers, who are 22nd in rush DVOA and allowing 32.6 DK and 27.7 FD PPG to RBs — the second- and third-highest marks in the NFL.
Ty Montgomery ($5,800 DK WR, $6,600 FD RB) and Don Jackson ($3,100 DK, $5,500 FD): These guys are currently the only healthy non-fullback RBs on the Packers — and Montgomery really isn’t a RB, but whatever. Both of these guys have the opportunity to produce. The Packers are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 30.75 points against the Colts, who are 29th in rush DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA against RBs.
Honestly, don’t sleep on Jackson. He’s an undrafted rookie practice squad call-up, but he was a hard-nosed runner at Nevada who averaged 1,135 scrimmage yards over his final two seasons. Per Player Profiler, the NFL RB to whom he is most comparable is Charcandrick.
Jay Ajayi ($6,000 DK, $7,100 FD): D*mn right, I kissed your mother with these typing fingers. Ajayi’s situation is something of a mixed bag. The Dolphins are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.75 points. That’s all OK. But they’re playing against the Jets, who defensively are third in rush DVOA and allowing an NFL-low 68.5 rushing YPG to RBs.
Here’s how I’m looking at this: Because of the tough matchup (and the bye week that followed Ajayi’s two 200-yard games), we have the opportunity to get him at projected ownership of five to eight and nine to 12 percent on DK and FD. That’s low for a guy who has done this since the Arian Foster vacuum was created in Week 3:
Ajayi is now clearly the team’s workhorse, with 67.59 percent of the carries and seven opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games. Ajayi’s also a better receiver than people realize, catching 80 percent of his targets this year.
He shouldn’t be rostered in cash games, but Ajayi should be considered for GPPs, given his likely ownership discount.
The Super Models
This week, we have five runners (as I write this) at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Carlos Hyde: $6,100 DK, $7,000 FD
• Devonta Freeman: $6,700 DK, $7,600 FD
• Isaiah Crowell: $3,900 DK, $6,000 FD
• Mark Ingram: $4,800 DK, $6,700 FD
• Antone Smith: $3,000 DK, $5,400 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hyde
There’s really not much to say about this. Hyde (shoulder), who missed the last game but might play in this one, is the centerpiece of a run-first fast-paced offense. Even on a team that is just 22nd in the NFL with 20.6 PPG, Hyde’s averaging 82.5 scrimmage yards, 2.2 receptions, and a TD per game.
The 49ers are 3.5-point home underdogs implied to score 24.25 points against the Saints, who are 28th in rush DVOA and allowing a league-high 1.86 TDs per game to RBs. They’re also allowing 32.1 DK and 28.7 FD PPG to RBs — the third- and second-highest marks in the NFL.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13-16 percent and is the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models.
If Hyde can’t play, then DuJuan Harris ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) would become a very intriguing option.
One Letter Shy of Greatness
Tevin Coleman will once again miss a game, leaving Devonta with the vast majority of the Falcons’ backfield opportunities. Devonta has been somewhat inconsistent this year because of Coleman’s emergence, but he’s still pacing for 1,470 scrimmage yards as the lead RB on the highest-scoring team in the league.
Last week without Coleman, Devonta played through a hip issue and ground out 21.8 DK and 19.8 FD points. No mention has been made of his hip this week, so he should be ready to go at full strength. The Falcons are four-point road favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Buccaneers, who are allowing 27.0 DK and 24.5 FD PPG to RBs.
Devonta plays on Thursday night, so it’s possible that he’ll have elevated ownership. Even still, getting exposure to a non-timeshare Freeman is something to consider. He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the Levitan Model.
Cros Before Something Else That Rhymes With “Cros”
For a big-bodied two-down back who isn’t especially great at catching the ball and is losing significant snaps to another RB while being on an 0-8 team that has given real quarterback snaps to five QBs and a wide receiver who used to pretend to play QB, Crowell is actually doing pretty well this season. You can’t expect much more from a guy in that situation than the 83.1 scrimmage YPG and 0.63 TDs per game that he’s offering.
From a salary-based perspective, Crowell might not seem sexy, but he tends to get the job done:
He’s not in a great situation this week: The Browns are 7.5-point home underdogs implied to score 20.5 points against the Cowboys, who are seventh in rush DVOA and allowing the third-fewest fantasy points (18.2 DK and 15.8 FD PPG) to RBs. So this could turn out to be a ‘Duke Johnson game,’ and there might not be a lot of production to go around in the first place.
What Cro has going for him is that he’s one of the few discounted DK RBs with an 87 percent Bargain Rating, and he leads the team with five opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games.
Just as he was last week, he’s the highest-rated RB in the Bales Model on DK, where he has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent.
“It’s Hard to Hold a Candle / In the Cold November Rain”
For the last three years, Ingram has been the lead back for the Saints whenever he’s been healthy . . . until last week, when a fumble of his caused head coach Sean Payton to bench him for Tim Hightower.
The Saints are reportedly going to use something of a timeshare from now on, because Payton apparently liked how Hightower looked while he was averaging 3.92 yards per carry for 26 attempts and turning three targets into one reception and zero yards. (Cough, #SoTilting, cough.)
This week the Saints are 3.5-point road favorites implied to score 27.75 points against the 49ers, who defensively are 30th in rush DVOA and allowing NFL-high marks of 33.3 DK and 28.8 FD PPG to RBs.
Ingram is the highest-rated DK RB in the Sports Geek Model. On the one hand, Ingram could go over 100 yards and score two TDs. On the other hand, he just touched the ball three times last week. He currently has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent. On the chance that Ingram goes off against the worst fantasy run defense in the league, you probably want some exposure to him — but I won’t blame you if you want to be underweight.
The NFL’s Owen Meany
I f*cking love Antone. The dude is Mighty Mouse: 5’8″ and 191 lbs. with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. People act like this guy came from nowhere a few years ago. No. He scored 16 TDs in his senior year at Florida State. He has it: Peripheral upside. He’s a big-play machine who can score on any given touch as a runner or a receiver. Over his career, he is averaging 10.0 yards per opportunity and one TD for every 85.9 yards.
The Buccaneers are four-point home underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against the Falcons, who are 21st in rush DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA against RBs. That’s the type of defense against which Antone could do some damage.
Plus . . . #RevengeGame . . . for the people who care about narratives. I don’t.
Smith is the highest-rated DK RB in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models. With Doug Martin, Charles Sims, and Jacquizz Rodgers all out, here Smith comes to save the day.
The Coda
Hightower, by the way, over his career fumbles on average every 55.3 carries. Ingram, 93. But, sure, give the ball some more to Hightower.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
