The Week 9 NFL Dashboard
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Week 9: Quarterbacks
For the second week in a row, there are six teams on bye: 18.75 percent of the NFL is unavailable. And then of course the Thursday and Monday games aren’t included in the main slate. So on Sunday we’re going to be looking at an 11-game slate containing five divisional games, which might make for ‘great football’ but tend not to make for great DFS, a.k.a. football that anyone would want to watch.
And the NFL wonders why its ratings suck.
One week after . . .
. . . we might see . . .
It’s not as if I’m going to miss feeling as if I might need to write blurbs about Brock Osweiler and Jay Cutler. But there’s strength in numbers. These bye weeks really aren’t fun.
No, Kirk, I don’t. When a slate comes along and makes me think, “What this weekend really needs is some Kirk Cousins on TV,” something’s wrong.
One more thought: By the time we reach Week 10, Tom Brady will have missed more weeks than he’s played — and he’ll still be the front runner for the 2016 MVP.
This might be the worst year in the history of Roger Goodell‘s family.
Other than the year of his birth.
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
Anyway, this piece is usually significantly longer than the other positional pieces. And that’s OK because . . .
[INSERT HERE LADY GAGA GIF]QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and several pieces before that, QB salaries on FanDuel are elevated (per our Salary Change metric) and depressed on DraftKings.
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
This week, the guy priced as the QB1 has the slate’s sixth-highest DK salary. On FD, he has the second-highest salary. On DK, only one player with a top-15 salary is a QB. That’s nowhere near the six QBs priced in the top 15 at FD.
On DK, three QBs have Bargain Ratings above 95 percent. On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is a ridiculous 61 percent. On a relative basis, it’s harder to acquire QB Plus/Minus on FD than DK. Be aware of that. Arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big Three
With Brady out, this week’s inter-platform top tier consists of only three QBs. These are the guys with the three highest salaries at the position:
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,800 DK (QB1), $9,100 FD (QB1)
• Drew Brees: $7,200 DK (QB2), $8,600 FD (QB2/3)
• Matt Ryan: $7,100 DK (QB3), $8,600 FD (QB2/3)
Note that, within this trio of triumph, Rodgers is the clear alpha. He’s at least $500 more expensive than Brees and Ryan on both sites. Also, Brees and Ryan have comparable (if not identical) salaries, and they are also fairly close in cost to a few of the QBs priced directly beneath them.
If you want to, you should easily be able to . . .
Yes, I used that GIF last week: GIF used to it.
If you didn’t like that horrible pun, you should probably stop reading now.
“The Cheese is Old and Moldy; Where is the Bathroom?”
The last couple of weeks — while acknowledging that Rodgers is a good QB with good matchups — I’ve basically undermined him in every way imaginable other than calling him “no worse than a league-average lover” — which might be the case. I don’t know. If I made that assertion, probably not many people could disprove it.
On last week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, guest (and winner of the 2014 Week 15 Millionaire Maker) Drew Dinkmeyer gave a strong anti-Rodgers take:
Rodgers isn’t good anymore . . . he’s basically Joe Flacco. . . . Rodgers had a great career, but I think he’s kind of washed now.
Rodgers — doubtlessly incensed at Drew’s disrespect — proceeded to punish the Falcons, accumulating four touchdowns on his way to a QB2 finish with 33.8 fantasy points.
In fact, over his last two games — ever since the Packers realized that guys who actually play running back are so 1950s — Rodgers has completed 71.3 percent of his passes for 572 yards, seven TDs, and no interceptions, adding 67 yards rushing and a two-point conversion.
He’s been packing that cheese.
And I don’t even know exactly what I mean by that, but it sounds strong.
Except . . . and I say stuff like this every week . . . it’s a little problematic that Rodgers has thrown an obscene 94 passes in two games and has ‘only’ 572 yards. I mean . . .
Seriously, is Rodgers playing on a football field for insects? He’s 29th in the NFL with 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA). He’s ahead of only Joe Flacco (6.0), Blaine Gabbert (5.9), and Brock Osweiler (5.8).
This season, Flacco has helped his offensive coordinator get fired, Gabbert has been benched, and Osweiler — a fifth-year pro ‘pro’ — has been described as “still basically a rookie” by his team’s owner.
What’s A-Rod’s excuse? Is the return of his best wide receiver throwing off the sh*tty ‘rhythm’ he developed last season?
It’s incredibly problematic that Rodgers is currently playing the best we’ve seen him play all season and still averaging fewer than 300 yards passing in that span.
I don’t want to overstate the case against Rodgers. With his Week 7 performance, he has vaulted up the leaderboard and is now DK QB5 and FD QB4 in points per game (PPG):
But Rodgers’ 248.9 passing yards per game (YPG) is the second-lowest mark of his career. He’s better than he was last year — but he’s better in degree, not kind.
In the last 16 games, he has passed for 300 yards just twice and three TDs thrice. In that span, he’s surpassed 30 fantasy points just once — last game.
But — as I say every week — there’s reason to be optimistic about Rodgers. The Packers are 7.5-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 30.75 points — and they’re playing against the Colts, whose defense is 31st in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 29th in pass DVOA. The Colts are 30th, 27th, and 32nd with 38.69 yards, 2.50 points, and 0.24 INTs per defensive drive.
They might even be able to help Rodgers with his yardage problem, as they’re allowing 298.4 passing YPG to QBs — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Last week, the Colts (at home) allowed Chiefs QBs to combine for 350 yards and three TDs on 41 pass attempts. I probably don’t need to say this, but the Chiefs are #notgood at passing the ball.
And the Packers (once again) are likely to feature a pass-heavy offense. Starting running back Eddie Lacy is on the injured reserve, backup James Starks is still recovering from a mid-October knee surgery, former Chiefs RB Knile Davis has already been waived by the team that claimed him when he was waived by the Packers, wide receiver-turned-temporary RB Ty Montgomery is dealing with a kidney issue related to his sickle cell trait, and undrafted rookie practice squad call-up Don Jackson accumulated 16 yards rushing on six attempts over the last two games.
It’s not a surprise that in Weeks 7-8 the Packers had the highest pass/run ratios they’ve had all season. Per StatMuse:
The Packers are going to throw the ball. And when they don’t it will be Rodgers who runs it.
Rodgers currently has the slate’s highest QB projection, and he’s been significantly better at home than on the road for his entire career, especially since 2014. Per RotoViz:
Rodgers has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13-16 and 21-25 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
On DK, previous QBs with comparable salaries and ownership projections have been strong:
On FD . . . we’ve never seen before a QB comparable to Rodgers on the basis of salary and projected ownership — but he is currently the highest-rated FD QB in the CSURAM88 Models.
I’m not going to be the *sshole who goes broke short selling Rodgers every week — but for the love of the fantasy gawds don’t be blindly enthusiastic about this guy.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, FantasyLabs Co-founder and GOAT practitioner of gut-based evaluation Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) said this:
He’s a great play. . . . He had that look, like he had the swagger back. Are you guys buying that eye-test swagger?
People don’t laugh at Pete often, but Davis Mattek, Adam Levitan, and I laughed at him. Even the millionaire laughed at himself.
Davis said: “That sounds like a CSU theory that I don’t . . .”
Yeah, I don’t either. I make it a habit not to bet against Pete when anything more than Coors Lite is at stake, but in an era in which passing is at an all-time high Rodgers hasn’t thrown 400 yards in a game in over two years.
In Week 8, Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins had 513 and 458 yards passing. They’re not Rodgers.
And neither is Rodgers.
Bad and Badder
The prudent move typically is to avoid Brees when he’s not playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football.
Here’s what Brees has done on the road since joining the Saints over a decade ago:
That’s not horrible, but it’s significantly worse than what he does at home.
And here are Brees’ home/road splits since Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead emerged as his top wide receivers last year:
Fewer fantasy points, fewer pass attempts, fewer completions, more interceptions, way fewer TDs and yards passing, and even fewer rushing yards: He’s never been great on the road, but since last year Brees away from the Superdome has basically been Philip Rivers — and the boys don’t come to the yard for that milkshake.
Of course, it’s hard to ignore Brees. With Brady out, he’s the slate’s QB1 in PPG:
Even though he’s on the road, he’s in a pretty ideal spot. The Saints are 3.5-point favorites implied to score 27.75 points against the 49ers, who defensively are 20th in pass DVOA and 26th with 2.37 points allowed per drive. The Saints should have plenty of opportunities to score, as they (fifth) and the 49ers (first) both use top-five situation neutral rates of play.
There’s no getting around the fact that this year Brees has disgusting -1.26 DK and -1.59 FD Plus/Minus values with 33.3 percent Consistency on the road. That’s the kind of thing that makes you say . . .
. . . but Brees is especially blessed in that the 49ers — despite allowing only 229.7 passing YPG to opposing QBs — have outright sucked this year when playing outside of their division:
I guess there’s something about playing against QBs who don’t suck and aren’t injured that can make a defense seem worse.
Brees leads the slate with eight DK Pro Trends and has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent. If there were ever a week to play him away from the Superdome, it’s probably this one.
The 49ers allow the most points in the NFL with 31.3 PPG.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
Ryan is the QB3 this season in PPG, and his 75 percent Consistency matches Brady’s:
Ryan plays on Thursday night, so I can understand the desire not to roster him, but 1) this slate is thinner than an Olsen twin and 2) he currently has the slate’s second-highest projection.
If you roster him, you probably want him on DK, where (despite his performance this year) he’s exactly the same price he was in Week 1 . . .
. . . whereas he’s now $1,000 more expensive on FD . . .
. . . and actually priced in accordance with his year-to-date production.
Ryan’s in a theoretically bad spot in that he’s on the road against a division opponent, but in our database Ryan actually has positive division/non-division splits. Additionally, ever since he’s had Julio Jones he’s been slightly better on the road against division rivals than in all other situations in the aggregate:
Plus, it probably doesn’t hurt that Ryan scored 27.4 DK and 24.4 FD points against the Buccaneers in Week 1 on 334 yards and two TDs passing.
The Falcons are 3.5-point favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Bucs, who defensively are 20th and 26th with 2.13 points and 0.048 INTs per drive. Per our Matchups tool, Jones and Mohamed Sanu are expected to run many of their routes against cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III and Jude Adjei-Barimah, who have extremely poor Pro Football Focus coverage grades of 45.3 and 49.7. Ryan should be all over those two like Leonardo DiCaprio on models.
There’s a lot more that could be said about the Falcons. They’re first in the NFL with 32.8 PPG, 3,402 total offensive yards, and 6.8 yards per play, and this season they’ve exceeded their implied Vegas totals by a league-high average of 8.6 PPG, surpassing the Vegas mark in seven of eight games.
Per Player Profiler, Ryan has been perhaps the best DFS QB of 2016:
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, No. 2 RB Tevin Coleman is out for Week 9, and No. 1 RB Devonta Freeman is dealing with a hip injury that limited his snaps in Week 8. It’s possible that a Falcons team that is second and first in the NFL with 313.75 passing YPG and 9.0 YPA will be throwing the ball more than usual in Week 9.
Ryan currently has the slate’s third-highest Projected Plus/Minus among DK QBs.
To quote Britney Spears . . .
And, yes, I basically used the same writeup I used last week. You know who doesn’t GAF?
And, no, I didn’t just spend an hour looking at “Oops!… I Did It Again” GIFs. Definitely not.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Case Keenum ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): The Rams are three-point home underdogs going against a Panthers defense that is 27th in pass DVOA and allowing the league’s most passing yards (306 YPG ) and third-most fantasy points (23.4 DK and 21.9 FD PPG) to QBs. Gabbert put up 22.7 fantasy points against the Panthers, and less than a month ago Keenum passed for 321 yards and scored four TDs total against a Lions defense that is comparably bad. Speaking of which . . .
Sam Bradford ($5,000 DK, $7,400 FD): I’m contractually obligated to mention anyone playing against the Lions, who are dead last in pass DVOA and allowing the second-most fantasy points (24.0 DK and 22.4 FD PPG) to QBs. This week, the Vikings are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.75 points against the Kittens. Bradford has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and FantasyLabs ownership projections of zero to one percent.
Also, Norv Turner has resigned and is now no longer his offensive coordinator. Maybe that’s a good development?
Russell Wilson ($6,400 DK, $7,800 FD): From a salary-based perspective, Wilson is now no longer better than even Jay Cutler. Wilson has officially been the worst DFS QB to this point of the season:
Playing on Monday night, he could be a sneaky contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools in the prime time slate, but remember this: Contrarianism isn’t a license to be a f*cking moron.
Ryan Tannehill ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD): The Dolphins are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.75 points against the Jets, whose funnel defense is 31st in pass DVOA. For his career, Tannehill hasn’t been at his best against divisional opponents . . .
. . . but the Jets are allowing the NFL’s second-most yards passing (302.1 YPG) to QBs, and Tanny has had positive DK and FD division/non-division splits ever since Jarvis Landry emerged as his No. 1 WR:
Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 DK, $7,200 FD): The Bills are seven-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Seahawks, who defensively are third, fifth, and second in overall, pass, and rush DVOA. So Taylor doesn’t have an easy matchup. At the same time, he has a 98 percent DK Bargain Rating and 18.87 PPG with a 100 percent Consistency Rating since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
To start TyGod against the Seahawks in Seattle, you’d have to have — to use two of Levitan’s favorite words — “stone nuts,” but he’s likely to have low ownership in even the prime time slate and could provide some profitable differentiation for a few GPP lineups.
Trevor Siemian ($5,100 DK, $7,200 FD): The Broncos are implied to score 21.75 points in Oakland for what is currently a pick’em. On the one hand, Siemian has a 96 percent DK Bargain Rating, and the Raiders are 25th in pass DVOA, allowing the fifth-most passing yards (292.5 YPG) to QBs. On the other hand, Siemian is the worst f*cking QB of all time.
His 32-point performance on 0.1 percent ownership in Week 3 wasn’t just an outlier. It was a big green middle finger flanked by three red knuckles and an exposed thumb:
I really hope that you see it. That’s what a DFS ‘f*ck you’ looks like.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,600 DK, $7,200 FD): In his two starts, he’s been ‘passable’ — that’s a little QB humor for you — and that joke is funny because he hasn’t been passable at all. He sucks as a thrower, but his production has been buoyed by his Konami Code-esque 75 rushing YPG:
That rushing production is almost certainly unsustainable, but Kaep is in a good spot. The 49ers are 3.5-point home underdogs implied to score 24.25 points against the Saints.
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
You probably already know this, but last year the ‘Aint’s defense allowed an NFL-record 45 TDs passing and was dead last in DVOA. This year, the defense is 28th in pass DVOA, allowing 20.4 DK and 18.6 FD PPG to QBs. Defensively the Saints are 31st, 29th, and 27th with 38.77 yards, 2.55 points, and 0.041 INTS per drive.
Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed slate-high +6.6 DK and +4.9 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs, as well as a 56.73 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 27.15 percent TD rate in the red zone, which are the highest and second-highest marks in the slate. In every game but one they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing.
They allow the second-most points in the league with 30.7 PPG.
But here’s the real question: Does a guy completing 46.0 percent of his passes and averaging 165 passing YPG deserve nine to 12 and five to eight percent ownership on DK and FD?
Kaepernick leads the slate with eight DK Pro Trends.
Derek Carr ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD): The Raiders are currently implied to score 21.75 points at home against the Broncos in a pick’em. The bad news is that Carr has had reverse home/away splits as long as Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have been his WRs . . .
. . . and that the Broncos are second in total and pass DVOA and allow an NFL-low 13.3 DK and 13.0 FD PPG to QBs.
That’s the bad news.
There isn’t really any good news.
Jameis Winston ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD): Last week, Winston technically reached his salary-based expectations, but he was one of the two highest-owned QBs in GPPs and his 18.80 fantasy points were a disappointment. As a result, he might be under-owned this week even though he is playing in the Thursday game in a good spot. The Bucs are 3.5-point home underdogs implied to score 23.75 points against the Falcons. That might not seem great, but the Falcons are allowing the third-most passing yards (300.4 YPG) to QBs, and their RB situation is very unsettled. Winston might throw a lot in this game. In Week 1 against the Falcons he finished with 26.5 fantasy points on 281 yards and four TDs.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600 DK, $7,500 FD): On the one hand, Roethlisberger’s not at home in Week 9 . . .
On the other hand, the Ravens have a funnel defense that flows toward the passing game like . . .
Roethlisberger’s 6.9-point floor and 34.7-point ceiling projections gesture toward the polarity of his circumstances. He’s likely to be fairly chalky with nine to 12 and 17-20 percent FantasyLabs ownership projections. He has a slate-high 75 percent FD Bargain Rating.
The Super Models
Some weeks, there are only a few guys at the top of our Pro Models, and they hold their positions all week. This week, no such luck.
As I’ve been researching for and writing this article, there have been several changes at the top of our Models. That fact highlights two points:
- Our Models, ratings, and projections are strong because they are responsive. As news breaks, we update our projections in real time. Seriously, when Adam Schefter breaks news at 1:00 AM ET on a Sunday morning, we incorporate that news into our Player Models as soon as possible.
- This week, after salaries are taken into account, not much separates a lot of the QBs near the top of the Models. Some slight adjustments in the projections of just a few players could have a larger impact than you expect. That means that we’ll need to be especially vigilant of the news that breaks later in the week.
As of writing (Wednesday night) here are the guys at the top of the Pro Models (in addition to A-Rod, a.k.a. ‘His Swagness’):
• Cam Newton: $7,800 DK, $8,100 FD
• Andrew Luck: $6,700 DK, $8,000 FD
• Philip Rivers: $6,500 DK, $8,300 FD
• Dak Prescott: $6,100 DK, $7,600 FD
Giddy up.
The Godfather
One of my favorite lines from Francis Ford Coppola’s cinematic masterpiece goes something like this:
A Cam who doesn’t steal touchdowns from his running back can never be a real Cam.
In Week 8, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart had two goal-line TDs in Cam’s return to action after missing a game with a concussion. Unsurprisingly, Week 8 marked Newton’s worst performance of the season.
If Newton is more cautious and the team refuses to use him as it has previously, then Newton’s upside is limited. Last year, Newton was used extensively as a runner, accumulating 636 yards and 10 TDs on 132 attempts. The result was an MVP campaign in which he was QB1 overall with 25.94 DK and 24.94 FD PPG.
Ever since he entered the league, Cam has been at his best when he’s scored TDs as a runner:
It’s great that Newton is currently the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. And it’s great that Newton has the slate’s third-best FD Bargain Rating at 61 percent. But the Panthers are implied to score only 23.75 points against the Rams as three-point road favorites.
If Newton isn’t supplementing his game with some rushing attempts, there’s not a lot of room in that phone booth to change into his Superman suit.
There’s No Such Thing as Luck
You can love Colts WR Donte Moncrief as much as you want. He’s an exciting, talented, and athletic developing player.
But he’s not T.Y. Hilton. He didn’t do in college what Hilton did. He hasn’t done in the NFL what Hilton has. And Luck doesn’t depend on Moncrief the way he does on Hilton.
Ever since Moncrief entered the league in 2014, Luck has basically performed the same without him as with him:
But let’s throw out his rookie season, since he (as the rumor goes) became a mythological beast of a red-zone scorer only in his 2015 second-year campaign:
Since last season, Luck has actually been a more prolific producer without Moncrief in the lineup.
I’m not saying that Moncrief is worthless to Luck and the Colts offense. I’m saying that he’s not as important as Hilton, because Hilton is the more productive of the two, he’s been with Luck for much longer, and the couple of times that Hilton hasn’t been available for Luck . . .
. . . the entire world has f*cking died.
Small sample? Sure. But with Hilton and without Moncrief, Luck had 23.46 DK and 21.46 PPG in Weeks 3-7.
Hilton has proven that on his own he’s capable of supporting Luck’s DFS value. He’s also shown (in limited opportunities) that his absence is detrimental to Luck.
Moncrief, though, hasn’t been terribly missed when he’s been out, and he’s never served as Luck’s primary receiver. In the last game that Hilton missed (12/21/14), Moncrief caught two of three targets for five yards. He was out-targeted by Hakeem Nicks (11), Reggie Wayne (five), Dan Herron (four), and Zurlon Tipton (four).
That last sentence might be the saddest in the world.
All of this is to say that Luck — currently the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales Model — is buried in uncertainty at the moment. Hilton (hamstring) suffered an injury last week. He finished the week not on the injury report and is set to play this week.
But there’s still a chance that he could be limited or re-aggravate his hamstring in this game.
Without Hilton, everything might turn out OK for the Colts, who are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 23.25 points against the Packers, who defensively are 16th in pass DVOA and without their best CBs. Everything might be great for Luck: He and Moncrief could connect for multiple TDs.
But Luck carries a lot of underappreciated risk, especially for a guy who has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD.
“The River of Dreams”
Last year, Rivers targeted RB Danny Woodhead and WR Keenan Allen more than any other receivers. This year, they were both on IR by the end of Week 2. It’s not a surprise that Rivers’ season has been a nightmare of mediocrity:
I know that his Plus/Minus values are positive, but in our database the average QB projected with at least five points has +1.96 DK and +1.39 FD Plus/Minus values — with Consistency Ratings just above 57 percent.
Rivers has without question been an average QB this season.
Of course, right now he’s priced as the DK QB7 and FD QB5. On DK especially we seem to like him. He leads the slate with eight DK Pro Trends, has an 88 percent Bargain Rating, and is the highest-rated QB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Why do we like him? The Chargers are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Titans, whose funnel defense is 24th in pass DVOA and has allowed QBs to do this to them (at home) over the last three weeks:
Over the last 16 games the Titans have allowed +4.5 DK and +3.7 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs — the second-highest marks of the slate. Rivers has the potential for a big game.
At the same time, RB Melvin Gordon leads the NFL in TDs rushing inside the 10- and five-yard lines, and he’s averaged two rushing attempts per game inside the 10 over the last four games (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). In two games this season, Rivers has four TDs each. In the other six games, he’s averaged 1.17 TDs.
When Rivers isn’t having a dream of a performance, he’s basically Carson Wentz minus the future.
On DK, where Rivers has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent, he has floor and ceiling projections of 6.6 and 36.8 points. Of all QBs within a $500 range, Rivers has the lowest floor and highest ceiling.
That seems appropriate.
My Mother’s New Favorite Player Besides Jason Witten and Everyone Else Who Isn’t Tony Romo
Dak is the highest-rated DK QB in the CSURAM88 Model. It’s not hard to see why.
Prescott has Consistency Ratings of 85.7 and 100 percent on DK and FD this season, and the Cowboys are 7.5-point road favorites implied to score 28 points against the Browns, who defensively are 30th in pass DVOA and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points in the league (22.8 DK and 21.2 FD PPG) to QBs. The Browns have been horrible against QBs this season:
The only QB not to reach his salary-based expectations against the Browns has a surname that rhymes with “Sh*tzTragic.”
If you wanted to roll with Dak, I wouldn’t blame you. He’s reached his salary-based DK expectations in every game except for his NFL debut:
The Cowboys are slow, playing at the league’s 27th situation neutral pace, and they’re the only team to run more than they throw, so there’s definitely the possibility that all of the fantasy goodness will go to RB Ezekiel Elliott, not Dak.
At the same time, Dak is averaging 15 rushing YPG as well as 0.57 TDs per game. Even if the Cowboys keep the ball on the ground, Dak could get his, just as he has all year.
Per ESPN, he’s third among qualified QBs with an 81.3 Total QBR. That’s pretty good for a rookie about to make his eighth start.
The Coda
By the way . . . A-Rod is fourth with a 76.8 Total QBR, so I guess that he’s not horrible.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs
