The Defenses and Kickers Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, so far this season defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (42 teams) have averaged 10.74 points with a +2.60 Plus/Minus and 7.8 percent average ownership, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (51 teams) have averaged 9.80 points with a +2.41 Plus/Minus and 6.8 percent average ownership. Halfway through the regular season, paying up for defenses continues to be more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big 2 Defenses
- Jacksonville ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
- Houston ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
Fresh off a bye week, the Jacksonville Jaguars have scored at least 12 points as a defense in five of seven games this season. This week, the cats welcome a Cincinnati Bengals offensive line that has allowed the third-highest adjusted sack rate (9.8 percent) in the NFL this season. That bodes well for a group that has registered the highest sack percentage (12.3 percent) and most total sacks (33) this season. Two weeks ago, the Jaguars lit up a similarly-leaky Indianapolis offensive line for 10 sacks (that’s a lot). Moreover, the Jaguars are one of just four teams with double-digit interceptions (10) this season and lay claim to the second-highest interception percentage (4.3 percent) in the league. Unsurprisingly, Jacksonville has the second-highest projected sack total (3.6) in our NFL Models this week. The Bengals are currently implied to score a slate-low 17.5 points in Jacksonville as 4.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars’ averages of 15.29 points per game, a +7.67 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and a +8.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel lead all defenses this season.
Deshaun on Defense
Matthew Freedman argues that Deshaun Watson might be the greatest first-month rookie in the history of the universe, but he doesn’t play defense. Even without Watson, the Houston Texans still own the highest projected sack total (3.8) in our Models and have a top-three ceiling projection on both sites. Houston pass rushers are likely very excited to get their shot at an Indianapolis offensive line — especially with the Texans favored by a slate-high 13 points — that has allowed the highest adjusted sack rate (11.1 percent) in the NFL this season and has given up a massive 14 sacks in their past two games. In 67 games since 2014, teams favored by 10-16 points at home have averaged 9.97 points with a +1.47 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 9.81 points with a +1.97 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Houston is the second-highest rated defense in the Bales Model for both sites, and their +3.03 Projected Plus/Minus leads all teams on FanDuel.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Arizona Cardinals ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): The Cardinals have a top-five ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, thanks in part to their 3.4 projected sacks (third-highest on the slate). Arizona travels to San Francisco as 2.5-point road favorites against a 49ers team implied to score the fourth-fewest points on the slate (18.3). The Cardinals have a top-10 interception rate (2.8 percent), as does opposing quarterback C.J. Beathard (2.7 percent).
Philadelphia Eagles ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): The highest-rated defense in Adam Levitan’s Model for DraftKings, the Eagles have the pleasure of playing a Denver team currently allowing the highest Plus/Minus (+5.3) to opposing defenses. In fact, in three games outside of Denver this season, the Broncos have allowed opposing defenses to rack up 18.33 points per game (PPG) and a +11.77 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +11.73 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. It doesn’t hurt that Denver’s offensive line has allowed the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate (9.3 percent) this season. We currently have Philadelphia projected as the chalk defense of the week on both sites.
Carolina Panthers ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): The Panthers’ 10.0 sack percentage and 27 total sacks trail only the Jaguars’ marks this season, and they have the fourth-highest projected sack total (3.3) in our Models this week. We currently have the Panthers projected for zero to one percent ownership on both sites as one-point home favorites. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most PPG to running backs on DraftKings (26.9) and sixth-most on FanDuel (22.9), so a contrarian stack with Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Stewart could be a sharp move. After all, stacking a defense and running back recently won a FantasyLabs subscriber a million bucks.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
No Patriots means no Gostkowski, so Greg Zuerlein occupies this space typically reserved for New England’s kicker. Greg “The Leg” and the Rams are favored by 3.5 points on the road and implied to score 22.5 points against the New York Giants. Zuerlein is tied for eighth on the slate with his 11.2-point projection, and his +2.65 Projected Plus/Minus ranks 14th. In general, kickers on the road playing for teams implied to score 20-25 points have averaged 8.28 PPG with a +0.21 Plus/Minus. Zuerlein has performed slightly better than that in these situations, producing 8.80 PPG and a +0.72 Plus/Minus with 50.0 percent Consistency in 10 games. With several cheaper kickers playing for teams implied to score more points, paying up for Zuerlein seems like a risky proposition at best this week.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Jake Elliott ($5,000): His team is implied to score the fifth-most points on the slate (25.8), and he has our second-highest median projection (12.5). Elliott has yet to score less than 10 points in a game this season and has connected on a field goal of 50 yards or longer in five of seven games. FanDuel finally bumped him up to $5,000, but he’s definitely still in play.
Ka’imi Fairbairn ($5,000): Why not stack Fairbairn with the Houston D/ST against a Colts team allowing league-high marks of 11.57 PPG and +3.68 Plus/Minus to kickers this season? Fairbairn’s Texans are implied to score the most points on the slate (31.0). Per the Trends tool, kickers with salaries of $5,000 or higher playing for teams implied to score at least 30 points have averaged 11.47 PPG with a +3.11 Plus/Minus and 63.2 percent Consistency.
