This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Marty Mornhinweg is running the Ravens offense, and for the last decade he has emphasized his quarterbacks with top-10 pass/run ratios. That said, it seems Greg Roman was indeed brought on to help add some balance. The team has transformed from the most pass-happy team in the league last year to 22nd in pass play percentage in 2017. Baltimore has also drastically slowed down their pace of play from the 10th-fastest in 2016 to the fourth-slowest this year. Joe Flacco may be sucking any resemblance of fantasy goodness from the passing game, but the Ravens have also been playing extremely slow and significantly more run-heavy this year.
For the second straight season, Adam Gase is calling plays for the Dolphins. The team was very successful down the stretch last year after allotting Jay Ajayi an average of 20.8 carries per game for their last 11 contests, in which the Dolphins closed the season on a 9-2 run. This year, they again play at a very slow pace (31st) but have relied more heavily on the passing game (11th-highest pass play percentage) than many expected. That said, the Dolphins are 4-2 and could lean on the running game more now with Jay Cutler injured. Their strength is on defense, where they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest points this season.
The over/under is predictably gross at 37 points — the lowest mark of the entire 15-game full slate — and the Ravens have a pathetic implied total of 20.0 as home favorites. Per our Week 8 Vegas Report, entering Week 7, Miami was one of two teams to not hit the over in any game this season. They finally hit it last week, but it’s hard to get excited about these offenses doing so again: Baltimore and Miami rank 26th and 29th, respectively, in offensive DVOA.
Both offenses sit in the bottom-four in neutral pace, bottom-five in offensive points scored, and top-half of defensive line adjusted sack rate. Players in the TNF game sometimes go over-owned in tournaments, but it’s hard to imagine this game hits the high end of that spectrum. In a contrarian universe in which you decide to stack up this game, users usually undervalue game stacks. Here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Flacco (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Flacco, Javorius Allen, Mike Wallace, and Ajayi could be lower than expected, despite the fact all of those players have very correlated outcomes.
Joe Flacco, QB
The last time Flacco finished in the top-15 in adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) was in 2014. DeShone Kizer (3.0 yards) is the only quarterback lower than Flacco (4.1) in that category this year. Flacco is 34th in fantasy points per drop back, 22nd in total quarterback rating, and 29th in air yards on the 10th-most passing attempts through seven games (Player Profiler). That said, this is a prime funnel situation to the pass, as the Dolphins are 27th in pass DVOA and third in run DVOA.
Javorius Allen, RB
He saw 11 targets last week and has averaged 6.4 over his last five games. The Dolphins rank 28th at defending running backs in the passing game this season. Over 26 percent of Flacco’s passes have gone to running backs over the last year — the fifth-highest among QBs in Week 8. Allen owns a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings at just $4,800.
Jeremy Maclin, WR
His 19 percent target share over the past five games leads the team, and his matchup against Bobby McCain in the slot is the largest advantage of any wide receiver on this team (Pro Football Focus).
Mike Wallace, WR
His 15.5 yards per target is the 28th-highest mark in the NFL, and his 26 percent market share of air yards over the last five games is 37th. Miami is the worst team in the league at defending a team’s WR2, but keep in mind Wallace has been out-targeted by Chris Moore 6-15 over the past two games.
Matt Moore, QB
He’s thrown for 300 yards once in 26 career games with at least 20 pass attempts, and Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year.
Jay Ajayi, RB
His 125 rush attempts are the sixth-most in the league, but he currently has zero rushing touchdowns on the year. Ian Hartitz just wrote a piece on Workhorses and Backfield Committees and had this gem on Ajayi:
Jay Ajayi . . . technically has zero percent of the Dolphins’ rushes inside the five-yard line due to their punt-first offense failing to record a rush attempt from that distance this season.
In theory, you attack Baltimore on the ground, as they are much better against the pass (fourth) than the run (19th), per DVOA. Ajayi owns a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is quite cheap for a player averaging 26.3 touches over his last three games.
Jarvis Landry, WR
His 33 percent target share trails only Antonio Brown‘s (34 percent) and DeAndre Hopkins‘ (35 percent), but his 3.4 air yards per target ranks 88th in the NFL. That said, Landry has shown more upside this year with a 31.6 percent target share in the red zone — the ninth-highest mark in the league. Unfortunately, Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest touchdowns (three) to the position in 2017.
Kenny Stills, WR
He saw nine targets last week, and his two-touchdown game may not exactly be a fluke. In five games with Moore under center, Stills has averaged 6.8 targets, 4.0 receptions, 62.0 receiving yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 17.4 PPR points. That said, it’s a tough matchup against the Ravens, who rank sixth-best at defending an opposing team’s WR2 this year (Football Outsiders).
Julius Thomas, TE
The best way to attack the Ravens in the passing game this year has been at the tight end spot; they have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel PPG to the position. However, Thomas has averaged just 4.2 targets per game this season and has eclipsed 30 yards only once; he has yet to score a touchdown. Moore has also thrown to the position on just 11.1 percent of his throws over the past year — the third-lowest mark among QBs on the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
