This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Last season was the first time in 10 seasons that a Todd Downing-coached offense didn’t finish in the top-14 in pass/run ratio. So far this season the Raiders are the 10th-most pass-heavy team. They would probably prefer to run a conservative and balanced West Coast offense; they’ve ranked 17th and 22nd in neutral pace over the past two seasons and rank 26th this year through six games.
Andy Reid’s offense has played at a bottom-five pace in three of his four years in Kansas City. Their 35.05 seconds per play in neutral situations this season is the slowest mark in the league (Football Outsiders). The Chiefs have yet to rank higher than 20th in pass attempts in any season and rank 17th so far in 2017. They will likely continue to rely on the running game — the Chiefs have been in the top-half of the league in rushing attempts each of the last four years — and Alex Smith will be counted on to make short and efficient throws that put his athletic wide receivers and tight ends in position to make plays.
The over/under sits at 46.5 points — the fifth-highest mark on the 15-game full slate — and the Chiefs have an implied total of 24.75 as road favorites. Per our Week 7 Vegas Report, the 5-1 Chiefs have the league’s best ATS record at 5-1.
Both offenses sit in the bottom-third in neutral pace and bottom-half in total offensive plays. On defense, neither Kansas City nor Oakland have played well, ranking 22nd and 29th, respectively, in DVOA. The Chiefs are second in scoring partly due to the efficiency of their quarterback. Smith’s 119.2 quarterback rating leads the league, and astonishingly he is squarely in the MVP discussion with +200 odds despite taking his first loss of the season last week against the Steelers.
Players in the TNF game sometimes go over-owned in tournaments, but DFS users usually undervalue game stacks. Here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Smith (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Smith, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Michael Crabtree could be lower than expected, despite the fact all of those players have very correlated outcomes.
Derek Carr, QB
He played last week after missing one game due to a transverse process fracture in his back. Although he adamantly denies his poor performance was health-related, he posted just 3.37 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) against the Chargers instead of challenging downfield. His career average is 6.6 AY/A, so perhaps that number comes up with better health. He has a good matchup against a Chiefs defense ranked 30th in pass DVOA and allowing the 12th-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year.
Michael Crabtree, WR
Undeniably the best wide receiver for the Raiders this year, Crabtree is top-15 in market share of air yards, but he also has just one red zone target since Week 2. That said, his matchup against Marcus Peters is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 WR/CB advantage of the week. Crabtree has touchdowns in back-to-back games.
Jared Cook, TE
He’s cracked 50 yards receiving only once this year. Cook also has just three red zone targets and a pathetic 12.5 percent target share inside the 10-yard line. Unsurprisingly, he falls outside the top-15 at the position in regards to projected ceiling, as the Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to tight ends this year.
Marshawn Lynch, RB
Kansas City has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this year, but Lynch is a poor bet to hit value unless he scores a touchdown due to a lack of volume in this offense. He has fewer than 15 rush attempts in every game except one this season and has just four receptions total on the year.
Amari Cooper, WR
Sorry, Pete. It’s been a tough go for Amari truthers this year, as he’s currently ranked 105th overall by PFF at the position. Of 48 wide receivers with 30 or more targets this year, Cooper is dead last in DraftKings points (29), receiving yards (110), yards per target (3.55), and catch rate (38.7 percent). That said, he’s $5,500.
Alex Smith, QB
His league-leading 9.8 AY/A this season is a career-high; in fact, it’s 3.1 yards higher than his career-average. His quarterback rating on deep passes also leads the NFL, and Oakland ranks 29th at defending passes traveling 16 or more yards through the air (Football Outsiders).
Kareem Hunt, RB
Hunt was given only nine carries last week, but his 21.2 touches per game this season is still tied with Melvin Gordon‘s for ninth-most in the league. He has been incredibly efficient with 5.9 yards per attempt (Y/A) and 12.1 yards per reception (Y/R) — both marks are second-highest this year at the position — but he has just two touches inside the five-yard line and hasn’t scored a red zone touchdown since Week 2 against Philadelphia. That said, the matchup this week sets up well for his dual-threat skill set, as the Raiders are 29th in DVOA to running backs in the passing game.
Travis Kelce, TE
Over his last three games, Kelce’s 30 percent market share of air yards leads the position and is also top-25 overall. Only Zach Ertz (26.0 percent) has a higher market share than Kelce (23.0 percent) at tight end over the entire season. He contributed just 37 actual yards on seven targets last week, but he should get back on track against Oakland, who ranks 25th in TE DVOA.
Tyreek Hill, WR
His 15.25 DraftKings PPG is 11th-most at the position this year, and he currently has the highest projected ceiling of any wide receiver from this game in our Models. Per our Trends tool, wide receivers with comparable monthly PPG averages and salaries have historically provided a +2.10 Plus/Minus and 48.3 percent Consistency Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
