This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
With Ron Rivera and Mike Shula at the helm, the Panthers tend to lead a run-heavy offense. Over the last six years, not once have they been outside the top-12 in rushing yardage or inside the top-12 in passing yardage. Further, they have never been outside the top-10 in run/pass ratio or inside the top-10 in neutral pace over that same period. Only once has Shula coordinated an offense in the top-12 in yardage and scoring — 2015, which looks like an outlier year within the context of the last six years. The Panthers have predictably run the eighth-fewest passing plays (53.53 percent) and are currently 28th in neutral pace (Football Outsiders) through the first five games of the 2017 season.
With the ninth-lowest percentage of passing plays this year (55.07 percent), the Eagles also play slow and skew more toward the run. Over the last three years, head coach Doug Pederson has managed an offense that has finished bottom-six in neutral pace each year. This year, the team has run an offensive play every 32.14 seconds — eighth-slowest in the NFL.
The over/under sits at 45.5 points — the eighth-highest mark on the 14-game full slate — and the Panthers have an implied total of 24.5 as home favorites. This line opened at Carolina -3, meaning that oddsmakers essentially see these teams as equals if you take away home-field advantage. However, money on the Panthers has moved the line from -3 to -3.5 since opening. Per our Week 6 Vegas Report, no team has hit its implied total in every game, but the Eagles (implied for 21.0 points) are one of three teams to go 4-1.
This game is likely to be played at a slow pace, and both teams are top-10 in run play percentage this year, which should keep the clock running. Neither defense is especially poor — both have slightly above-average pass and run DVOA marks — so that lack of play volume could be especially troublesome for the skill positions if both teams struggle to move the ball. Players in the TNF game sometimes go over-owned in tournaments, but DFS users usually undervalue game stacks. Here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Cam Newton (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess, and Alshon Jeffery could be lower than expected, despite the fact all of those players have very correlated outcomes. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of this game.
Cam Newton, QB
His 3.7 percent touchdown rate and 6.4 AY/A mark last year were career-lows, but perhaps the injuries to his offensive line, as well as his own shoulder and concussion issues, had a lot more to do with his regression than initially thought. Newton looks to have rebounded with a 5.5 percent touchdown rate and 8.1 AY/A in 2017; those marks are well above even his career-averages of 4.7 percent and 7.2 yards. He has 300-plus passing yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games against the Patriots and Lions, respectively, and will face an Eagles defense this week allowing the third-most passing yards in the league.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
His 7.2 targets per game trails only Andre Ellington‘s (8.0), and his 24.0 percent target share is tied with Funchess’ for the team lead. The Eagles have the 10th-best run DVOA in the league but are slightly below-average against running backs in the passing game (Football Outsiders).
Devin Funchess, WR
In the three games without Greg Olsen, Funchess has owned a massive 28 percent target share and 38.0 percent market share of air yards. His 31.1 percent target share in the red zone leads the team, and the Eagles have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to the position in 2017.
Ed Dickson, TE
His 5-175-0 stat line on five targets last week was probably closer to an outlier than a sign of things to come. In his eight-year career, Dickson has seen five or more targets 16 other times and has an average stat line of 3.8-35-0.3 in those games.
Carson Wentz, QB
Wentz displayed limited upside last season, but so far in 2017 his AY/A has increased from 5.7 to 8.1 — the sixth-highest mark in the league. Through five games, he’s produced 22.46 DraftKings PPG for a +4.89 Plus/Minus in comparison to 15.19 and -0.51 in his rookie year (per our Trends tool). That said, it’s a tough matchup this week, as the Panthers have allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards and eighth-fewest DraftKings PPG this year.
LeGarrette Blount, RB
He had a touchdown called back last week and finished with just 7.4 DraftKings points. That said, he quietly has the fifth-most rushing attempts inside the five-yard line this year. He’s reasonably priced at $4,700 on DraftKings, but his upside is limited unless game script breaks his way since he has zero passing game role.
Alshon Jeffery, WR
He’s expected to be shadowed by James Bradberry (Pro Football Focus’ 55th-ranked cornerback) this week, so we may finally be able to target Jeffery after a slew of brutal matchups against the Redskins, Chiefs, Giants, Chargers, and Cardinals to start the year. He still owns a top-25 market share of air yards this year despite his subpar 11.7 DraftKings PPG.
Nelson Agholor/Torrey Smith, WR
The correct answer to which Eagles punt wide receiver to play last week turned out to be both, as Agholor and Smith scored 17.3 and 14.2 DraftKings points, respectively, with Patrick Peterson locked on Jeffery. With a 13 percent target share over the past three weeks, going back to the well could be tough, as Carolina has ranked 10th-best against the pass so far this season (per DVOA).
Zach Ertz, TE
Per our Week 6 Market Share Report, Ertz leads the tight end position with a 29.41 percent target share, 9.6 targets per game, 6.4 receptions per game, and 6.0 air yards per target through the first five weeks. He’s in cash-game consideration with the highest projected floor at the position in Models for Week 6.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
News Updates
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