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Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota: $7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Marcus Mariota (hamstring) has been limited in practice all week, but the Titans are optimistic that he will play. If that’s the case, he has one of the best matchups on the board against a Colts defense that ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Mariota is currently the highest-rated primetime quarterback in the Levitan Model. Over the last 12 months, the Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks to score 5.3 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations. Mariota is the slate’s only quarterback with a positive Projected Plus/Minus.
Jacoby Brissett: $6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett draws an exceptional matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA. They’ve also allowed the second-highest touchdown rate and 21.20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season — also a bottom-two mark. If Mariota is active Monday night, it’ll be interesting to see which way ownership plays out between these two quarterbacks. Brissett ranks in the middle of the pack in efficiency (13th), averaging 0.46 fantasy points per dropback (Pro Football Focus), but the Titans are allowing quarterbacks to average 0.61 fantasy points per dropback — the fourth-highest mark in the league. It’s an intriguing spot for Brissett, as the Titans have allowed quarterbacks to score 4.3 points above salary-based expectations on DraftKings over the last 12 months.
Running Backs
C.J. Anderson: $7,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
As an +11.5 home favorite, C.J. Anderson is in a great spot against a Giants defense that has been gashed by opposing running backs and ranks 28th in rush DVOA, allowing 4.47 yards per carry (YPC) and 119 rushing yards per game. Jamaal Charles isn’t eating into Anderson’s workload, as Anderson is averaging 20.8 touches per game compared to Charles’ nine. CJA and the Broncos defense make for an attractive correlation play, as defenses facing offenses implied for fewer than 15 points have historically averaged a +4.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 92.3 percent Consistency Rating.
DeMarco Murray: $5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
The Colts defense is slightly stronger against the run (21st rush DVOA) than the pass (28th pass DVOA), and they’re holding opponents to just 3.9 YPC, but they’ve allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns on the season (six). Behind Anderson, Murray seems to be the safest bet for volume on a two-game slate. Murray out-touched Derrick Henry 18 to four in Week 5 and played 83 percent of the snaps compared to just 19 percent for Henry. Overall, Murray has played 67 percent of the snaps this season. He currently boasts the highest median projection on the primetime slate.
Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton: $7,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The Titans have been torched through the air this year, ranking 25th in pass DVOA, and are tied with the Chiefs with a league-high 1.80 receiving touchdowns allowed per game to opposing receivers. They’s also top-five in targets per game (21.4) and fantasy points per game (39.2). T.Y. Hilton is a safe bet for volume, as he owns 24 percent of the Colts’ target share and 37 percent of their air yards since Week 2, when Brissett became the starter. He currently has the highest ceiling projection among all DraftKings receivers on the slate.
Rishard Matthews: $5,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Provided Mariota starts, Rishard Matthews is in a good spot against a Colts defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA. In Weeks 2-4 (when Mariota started with Corey Davis out), Matthews had 31 percent of the target share for the Titans along with 60 percent of their red zone targets. Matthews has the highest median projection among receivers on FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Tight Ends
Delanie Walker: $5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
This goes without saying, but the main skill position players on the Titans are all in favorable spots if Mariota is active. The Colts rank 29th in pass DVOA against tight ends, allowing 7.9 targets and 74 receiving yards per game to the position. Delanie Walker was second on the Titans in targets in Weeks 2-4, and the Colts are allowing 2.09 DraftKings points per target to tight ends — the sixth-highest mark in the league. Walker boasts seven Pro Trends on FanDuel where he sports an 88 percent Bargain Rating.
Evan Engram: $4,200 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
The Giants have lost Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall for the season, and Sterling Shephard (ankle) won’t suit up. With the absence of those three receivers, the Giants are missing 55 percent of their overall target share and 72 percent of their red zone target share. Evan Engram luckily will avoid Denver’s stout boundary corners. While the Broncos rank 13th in pass DVOA overall, they rank 26th in pass DVOA against the tight end position. Tight ends are being targeted against the Broncos at the eighth-highest rate this season, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. The Broncos have been exploited by tight ends over the last 12 months, allowing them to score 4.3 points above salary-based expectations on DraftKings.
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News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
