The Primetime Slate Breakdown offers data-driven analysis each week. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
With the lack of quarterback options on the Primetime slate, Deshaun Watson will likely be the highest-owned signal caller. Fresh off a five-touchdown game against the Titans, Watson has a much tougher matchup this week. His last two starts came against defenses ranked 31st (Titans) in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 32nd (Patriots). The Chiefs rank 11th overall in defensive DVOA. This will be his toughest test since his first start against the Bengals in Week 2 when he look lost and threw for 125 yards with 5.20 yards per attempt. That said, with 5.6 rushing attempts per game in his first three starts, Watson has the highest ceiling and floor projections among all primetime quarterbacks. He’s the only quarterback with a positive Projected Plus/Minus. Given that the Texans have experienced positive reverse line movement, there’s some sharp money on Houston.
Alex Smith: $5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Alex Smith has been the league’s most efficient fantasy quarterback this season, averaging 0.62 fantasy points per dropback (Pro Football Focus). He has strung together at least 15.10 fantasy points in each game this season and is yet to throw an interception. Smith and the Chiefs are traveling to Houston as +1.0 underdogs. Since 2014, Smith has averaged a +1.70 Plus/Minus on DraftKings on the road. He will be tested against a Texans defense that ranks fourth in DVOA, allowing 196 passing yards per game. Smith makes for a better price-sensitive play on DraftKings, where he has an 80 percent Bargain Rating.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt: $8,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Kareem Hunt has been on a tear this season, averaging 164.75 scrimmage yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. That said, the matchup isn’t ideal, as the Texans defense ranks seventh in rush DVOA and has held running backs to a -5.2 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s the safest bet for volume among running backs on this slate, as he is handling 48.8 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive touches. Hunt will be helped by his offensive line, which ranks first in the league with 5.15 adjusted line yards (Football Outsiders), and he boasts an exceptional 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Lamar Miller: $5,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
The Chiefs have something of a funnel defense as they rank ninth against the pass and 25th against the rush in DVOA. Lamar Miller is averaging 19.5 touches per game, which is the 11th-highest mark in the league. Houston’s line has struggled in pass protection this season, ranking 31st in adjusted sack rate, but it’s been serviceable on the ground, ranking 13th with 4.32 adjusted line yards. As -1 home favorites, the Texans could be in a position to give Miller touches throughout the game. Miller and Watson are highly correlated, so a Houston quarterback-running back stack is intriguing.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: $7,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
It’s tough to ignore a receiver garnering the type of volume that DeAndre Hopkins is. He has 39 percent of the Texans’ targets and 40 percent of their air yards with at least seven receptions in every game this season. Hopkins’ 7.8 touches per game is the second-highest mark among receivers. Although the Chiefs are good in pass defense, Hopkins is expected to avoid cornerback Marcus Peters for much of the game. Hopkins this year has averaged a +2.72 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he boasts a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
Adam Thielen: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,6600 FanDuel
As of writing we still don’t know if Sam Bradford (knee) or Case Keenum will start for the Vikings, which makes it difficult to evaluate Minnesota’s receivers. However, as Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have accounted for 47 percent of the Vikings’ target share it’s likely their volume will remain safe no matter who is starting. Thielen saw 10 targets with Bradford in his first start and six or more targets with at least five receptions in Keenum’s three starts. Also, with the absence of Dalvin Cook (knee, injured reserve), who had received 50 percent of the team’s offensive touches, it’s possible the Vikings could air it out more. Diggs is also in an exploitable spot against Kyle Fuller, as the Bears rank 31st in pass DVOA against No. 1 receivers. Thielen and Diggs both sport a Bargain Rating above 82 percent on FanDuel.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Travis Kelce trails only Tyreek Hill among Chiefs pass catchers with his 21 percent target share, and he leads the Chiefs with 33 percent of their red-zone targets. He’ll be tested in this matchup, though, as the Texans rank third in pass DVOA against tight ends and have held tight ends to a -1.2 Plus/Minus over the last 12 months. Nevertheless, Kelce easily boasts the position’s highest ceiling projections.
Zach Miller: $2,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Miller is an intriguing leverage play on Kyle Rudolph since Rudolph is blocking at a 10 percent higher rate this year than he did last year, and the Bears tight end is second on the team with 20 targets. With targets likely funneling away from whomever cornerback Xavier Rhodes is defending, Miller could see more targets thrown his way. The Vikings have been beaten up by tight ends this season as they rank 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends. Miller makes sense on DraftKings, where he has +1.63 Projected Plus/Minus and an 88 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
