This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
This game features a middling over/under of 45.5 points in Green Bay. The Packers are implied for 26.5 points, which is the sixth-highest implied total on the Thursday-Monday slate. On the other side, the Bears are implied for 19 points — the fifth-lowest total on the slate.
As Matthew Freedman noted in his NFL Week 4 Vegas Data article, the Bears are one of three teams yet to participate in a game that hit the over. While the Packers are implied for 26.5 points, they have yet to hit their over on their implied total through the first three weeks; they’ve scored between 17-24 points in regulation each game this season. Given that these two teams are squaring off on a short week, it wouldn’t be shocking to see these teams hit the under once again. Also, the weather could be a factor in this one: Per Bet Labs, favorites in Thursday night games that have been 60 degrees or cooler are 50-32 (61.0 percent) ATS.
With the dynamics of the Thursday-Monday slate, this game might not garner a lot of ownership, as DFS players will be looking to pay up for some of the top-tier running backs that are in exceptional spots. That said, users still might seek exposure to some of the Packers’ offensive pieces, such as Ty Montgomery as a 7.5-point home favorite; his massive workload comes with a slight discount to the other top-tier running backs. Through three weeks, no running back has played more snaps than Montgomery.
With Randall Cobb practicing in full, Geronimo Allison is out as a potential salary-saver or GPP dart. If you are looking to stack in this game, Aaron Rodgers with Jordy Nelson is always in play: The stud WR owns 33.3 percent of the Packers’ receiving TDs. In games with a Vegas total between 44 and 48 points, QBs and their WR1s have a strong correlation value of 0.49.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
The Packers are implied for 26.5 points at home, and the Bears rank 22nd in defensive DVOA through three games. Since 2014, Rodgers has averaged a +4.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 25.07 fantasy points per game at home (per our Trends tool). That said, he ranks just 21st in efficiency this season, averaging 0.42 fantasy points per dropback (PFF).
Mike Glennon, QB
Some people might look at Glennon priced at $4,500 on DraftKings with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and think, “he’s a cheap quarterback who will have to throw a lot.” However, historically quarterbacks on the road implied for 21 points or less have averaged a -1.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Glennon currently ranks 32nd among all QBs in efficiency.
Ty Montgomery, RB
As I mentioned above, people will likely want to roster Montgomery as a 7.5-point home favorite because of his solidified role within this offense. Although the Bears have allowed 3.4 yards per attempt this season — the 10th-best mark in the league — Montgomery’s floor is bolstered with his receiving ability; he’s averaging 7.6 targets per game. His price has jumped $1,100 on DraftKings and $600 on FanDuel since the start of the season, although he does have a nice Bargain Rating of 98 percent on the latter site.
Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen, RB
Howard is no longer listed on the Bears’ injury report, and he played a season-high 63 percent of the snaps in Week 3 while carrying the ball 23 times for 138 yards and two touchdowns. That said, he makes for a shaky play on the road, given that the Bears are 7.5-point underdogs and he is used sparingly in the passing game. He has run 47 pass routes this season, but he’s averaging just 0.85 yards per route run and has been targeted on only 23 percent of his pass routes (PFF).
Meanwhile, Cohen leads the Bears in targets, receiving yards, and receptions. He owns 23 percent of their target share with a catch rate of 80 percent. Cohen has spent 61 of his 96 snaps on a pass route, averaging the fifth-highest yards per route run at 2.07 yards.
Jordy Nelson, WR
Nelson is always a good bet to get in the end zone, but the Bears have done a good job of limiting passing touchdowns this season. They’ve allowed just three through three games, and that is despite facing quality quarterbacks in Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. Nelson could have somewhat reduced ownership with Cobb potentially coming back and DFS players looking for exposure to the top-tier running backs in Week 4.
Davante Adams, WR
Last season, the Bears struggled to defend No. 1 receivers, ranking 29th in DVOA against them. That said, they were slightly better against No. 2 receivers, ranking 14th in pass DVOA. Adams currently leads the Packers with 23 targets, but that was with Nelson missing most of Week 2’s game against the Falcons. Over the last 12 months, the Bears have allowed receivers to score 2.8 points below salary-based expectations on DraftKings.
Randall Cobb, WR
After missing Week 3 with a shoulder injury, Cobb is practicing in full this week. He has a tough matchup against Chicago’s slot corner, Bryce Callahan, who has allowed the second-lowest wide receiver rating in the league on balls thrown in his direction (PFF). Be sure to monitor our NFL News feed on the status of Cobb leading up to the game.
Kendall Wright, WR
Wright had been a serviceable option for a few weeks this season, but with Markus Wheaton back in the lineup, Wright’s snaps dropped from 86 percent in Week 2 to 54 percent in Week 3. Wheaton played 62 percent of the snaps in his first game back last week. Wright was targeted zero times in that game and is nothing more than a very contrarian GPP dart throw.
Zach Miller, TE
Miller is second in Chicago with 16.98 percent of the targets this season. While the Packers have allowed 1.77 fantasy points per game to tight ends — the lowest mark in the league — they haven’t faced teams that feature their tight end. Miller has run the 12th-most routes among tight ends (PFF), and none of the Packers linebackers have a positive pass grade in coverage this season.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned, as well as keep you up to date with our NFL Week 4 Injury Dashboard. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
