The Defenses and Kickers Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
The Big Three Defenses
Seattle is the highest-priced defense on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but DraftKings has eliminated the Sunday night game from their main slate. That leaves us with the following defenses that are priced within the top-three salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Jacksonville ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
- Tampa Bay ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
- New England ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
If You’re Not Five Minutes Early, You’re Late
Tom Coughlin’s return to the Jacksonville Jaguars has the defense playing some pretty good football: They’ve allowed just seven points in two of three games. That, combined with a tasty matchup against the fuel-deprived Jets, has earned the Jaguars the highest salary among teams not named Seattle on both sites this week. Jacksonville travels to New York as modest 3.5-point road favorites against the Jets, who have the lowest implied point total (18) on DraftKings’ main slate this week. The Jaguars currently have the second-highest projected sack total (3.3) and point projection (8.1) in our NFL Models.
Per Pro Football Reference, through the first three games of the season, just 25 percent of opponent drives have resulted in a score (tied for first) against the Jaguars, while 22.2 percent of drives have ended in an offensive turnover (tied for second). Jacksonville currently leads the league in sacks (13), and their 4.4 percent interception rate ranks third this season.
The Jets have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings (27.6) and FanDuel points per game (23.8) to RBs this season, so pairing Leonard Fournette with the Jags defense could be a sharp move this week according to our NFL Correlations page.
Fire The Cannons!
Per our Models, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the second-highest takeaway percentage (1.97 percent) and interception percentage (3.42 percent) in the main slate. Tampa is currently a three-point favorite at home against the Giants and Eli Manning, who has thrown four interceptions and has been sacked eight times through three games this season. Per the Trends tool, defenses favored by one to five points at home have averaged 7.75 points with a +0.47 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 7.66 points with a +0.46 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That said, these small favorites at home have historically averaged less than five percent ownership in large guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), which potentially makes the Bucs D/ST a sneaky tournament play this week.
Not Too Razor Sharp
At home in a money spot last week, the New England Patriots made Deshaun Watson look like Deshaun GOATson on their way to generating a paltry 6.0 points as a D/ST. In three games this season, the Patriots have failed to meet their salary-based expectations each time, scoring an average of three points per game. They are playing at home in one of our Games of the Week as nine-point favorites (largest on the slate), which has historically been a spot in which defenses excel: In 140 games since 2014, defenses playing at home as seven to 11 point favorites have averaged 9.14 points with a +1.13 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 9.09 points with a +1.51 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The No. 1 rated defense in the Bales Model, the Bengals currently have the highest projected ceiling (15.9) on the slate. They’re tied for sixth with their 1.58 takeaway percentage, and they also rank fourth with their 3.27 percent touchdowns allowed. They are currently favored by 3.5 points at home against Cleveland, who has allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to opposing defenses (+4.4) on the slate.
Tennessee Titans ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): Currently projected for zero to one percent ownership on FanDuel, where they have an 80 percent Bargain Rating, the Titans are rating well in several of our Pro Models this week. Tennessee is favored by 1.5 points at home against Houston, whose +5.4 Plus/Minus allowed to opposing defenses is second on the slate. The Titans are tied for ninth with their 2.6 projected sacks, and their 15.0-point projected ceiling is tied for fourth on FanDuel’s slate.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Dallas is currently favored by six points at home against the suddenly-explosive Los Angeles Rams and Jared Goff. The Cowboys have the highest projected sack total (3.7) on the slate, and their 7.23 percent sack rate over the past year ranks seventh overall. Additionally, 26.5 percent of opponent drives have resulted in a score, which is the third-best mark this year. The Rams have allowed the third-most DraftKings (31.6) and FanDuel points per game (29.0) to RBs this season, and stacking the likely chalky Ezekiel Elliott with the Dallas D/ST could help differentiate your roster in GPPs.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Once again the most-expensive kicker on FanDuel, Stephen Gostkowski ($5,100) is playing for a team with the highest-implied point total (28.5) on the slate. His 11.4-point projection is tied for third-highest this week, but his 8.8 fantasy points per game (PPG) over the past 12 months has dropped to the ninth-highest total among kickers on the main slate. Per the Trends tool, kickers priced at $5,000 or higher and playing at home with implied team totals greater than 25 points have produced 9.48 FanDuel points and a +1.10 Plus/Minus with 56.0 percent Consistency. Gostkowski has been very reliable in similar situations: He’s exceeded his salary-based expectations in 12 of 17 comparable games (70.6 percent).
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Matt Bryant ($5,000): Not far behind Gostkowski in salary is Bryant, who has impressively perfect Consistency in 18 games over the past calendar year. The 48.5-point over/under in the Falcons game is currently the highest total on the slate, and Bryant is tied for third with his 11.6 projected points. In his last 11 home games for Atlanta, Bryant has averaged 11.09 FanDuel points and a +2.86 Plus/Minus.
Phil Dawson ($4,500): The No. 1 rated kicker in the Bales Model, Dawson is priced $600 less than Gostkowski this week. The Cardinals are implied to score the fifth-most points (25.8) on the slate, and Dawson currently checks in with the second-highest point projection (11.7) and best Projected Plus/Minus (+3.87) this week. Importantly, Dawson is projected for less than five percent ownership in GPPs.
Younghoe Koo ($4,500): Among kickers currently projected for zero to one percent ownership, Koo has the pleasure of playing for the Chargers, who are implied to score the seventh-most points (24.3) on the slate. That said, Koo has yet to score more than six points in a game and has missed three of five field-goal attempts this season. Use Younghoe with caution.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
