The DraftKings NFL Pick‘Em format allows owners to create lineups with no salary cap. Players are assigned to eight different tiers. Owners pick one player from each tier to create their rosters. Below we break down the tiers and some of the players in each group for the 13-game main slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Tier 1: Elite Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Aaron Rodgers is the chalk Tier 1 pick. Rodgers has the highest median and floor projections in our Models and has passed for over 300 yards in each of the last two games. While Rodgers is safe for cash games against a struggling Bengals team, his upside might be capped: The Packers are 8.0-point home favorites and could choose to rely on the running game. The love for Rodgers this week could result in high ownership, making him a potential fade in Pick’Em guaranteed prize pools. For more on Rodgers, see our Week 3 quarterback breakdown.
Matt Ryan, Falcons
Matt Ryan is in an intriguing spot. He has upside as the Falcons are implied for 27.0 points against the Lions in a game with the slate’s second-highest over/under at 51.0 points. Additionally, the Lions allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks last year with 20.9 DraftKings points per game (PPG). This year, however, the Lions have held quarterbacks to 12.3 PPG, and Ryan’s touchdown rate has dropped from 7.1 percent last year to 3.4 percent. With Rodgers in his tier, Ryan could have reduced ownership.
Tier 2: Elite Running Backs and Wide Receivers
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
This pick has to work eventually, right? Le’Veon Bell has disappointed so far with just 10.40 DraftKings PPG, and in Week 1 he played only 71.7 percent of the snaps, but Bell was a Week 2 workhorse with 27 carries and four targets. The Steelers are 7.5-point road favorites over the Bears and seem likely to enjoy positive game script for most of the contest. Bell played on 91.9 percent of the snaps in Week 2. This looks like a breakout spot.
Julio Jones, Falcons
Within this tier, Bell will be popular because of his expected volume and Antonio Brown could also be popular because of his 11 targets per game so far and 21.7 PPG. As a result, Julio Jones could have diminished ownership. He makes for a high-upside, low-ownership stacking partner with Ryan.
Tier 3: Near-Elite Running Backs
Ty Montgomery, Packers
Although Kareem Hunt will likely be the chalk play in Tier 3, Ty Montgomery is a viable pivot play as a strong pass-catching back with double-digit carry capability. While Montgomery is playable on his own, he also stacks well with Rodgers, as they collectively lock in a high percentage of Green Bay’s 27.25-point implied total.
Jay Ajayi, Dolphins
The Jets are a fantasy factory: This year they’ve allowed the most PPG (33.0) to opposing teams and third-most DraftKings PPG (37.6) to opposing running backs, who’ve averaged 29 carries per game against them. In Week 2, Jay Ajayi was on the field for 64 snaps and got 28 carries while all other Dolphins running backs saw four snaps and one carry. This week Ajayi will get the ball too often against too bad of a defense to fail. For more on Ajayi, see our Week 3 running back breakdown.
Tier 4: Near-Elite Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Keenan Allen has a top-five median projection for wide receivers this week. Last week he registered 27.78 percent of his team’s targets and 25 percent of the air yards. Here’s the catch (note: I’m sorry): His average depth of target is just 6.6 yards. Allen is safe for cash games but has limited upside for GPPs, evidenced by a ceiling projection outside of the top 20.
A.J. Green, Bengals
The Bengals have been trying to get A.J. Green the ball. He’s had over 25 percent of the team’s targets and 100 air yards in consecutive games. He is getting the volume he needs to produce, and this week Green has a great matchup against Packers cornerback Damarious Randall. Riskier than Allen, Green is the GPP play of Tier 4. For more on Green, see our Week 3 wide receiver breakdown.
Tier 5: High-End Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree, Raiders
Through two weeks, Michael Crabtree leads all wide receivers with 23.15 DraftKings PPG. The Raiders are implied for a smoking 29.0 points as -3 favorites on the road against the Redskins in a game with a slate-high 55.0-point over/under. Crabtree leads the tier in median and ceiling projections and is fine for cash games but might be too chalky for GPPs given his three-touchdown performance last week.
Golden Tate, Lions
Unlike Crabtree, Golden Tate is not coming off of a stellar game, but despite his 4-25-0 outing last week his ceiling projection is comparable to Crabtree’s this week. With the Falcons-Lions game expected to shoot out — it’s second on the slate with a 51.0-point over/under — Tate has plenty of upside at what’s likely to be low ownership.
Tier 6: High-End Running Backs and Wide Receivers
Devonta Freeman, Falcons
A top-three ceiling projection and top-six floor projection make Devonta Freeman attractive for both cash games and GPPs. A Ryan-Freeman stack is likely to capture much of Atlanta’s 27.0-point implied total.
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
The discrepancy between Tyreek Hill’s ceiling and floor projections are telling. The spread is more than 20 DraftKings points. He was born for use in GPPs. For what it’s worth, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) is back on Tyreek this week.
Tier 7: Mid-Level Flexes
Terrelle Pryor, Redskins
With only 8.9 PPG, Terrelle Pryor has the lowest average in Tier 7 and will likely have low ownership. Still, in Week 1 he had 166 air yards before the Redskins experienced a run-heavy game script in Week 2. The Redskins are implied for 26.0 points at home, and their game with the Raiders is expected be a shootout. Pryor has a potential as a high-upside lineup differentiator in tournaments.
Davante Adams, Packers
Jordy Nelson (quad) and Randall Cobb (chest) are both dealing with injuries, making Davante Adams the only fully healthy starting wide receiver for the Packers. While Nelson seems likely to play this week, Cobb’s status is uncertain. If Cobb is inactive, Adams will have elevated upside as a stacking partner with Rodgers.
Tier 8: Low-Tier Flexes
Mike Gillislee, Patriots
With four touchdowns in two games, Mike Gillislee has assumed ‘The Blount Role’in New England. The Patriots are amazingly -14.5 favorites at home and implied for a slate-high 29.25 points. Gillislee might have the highest touchdown equity of any non-quarterback in the slate.
Tarik Cohen, Bears
Not once this season have the Bears led in a game. As a result, Tarik Cohen has been used a lot as a pass-catching and change-of-pace back, turning his 21 targets and 12 rushes into 181 yards, 16 receptions, and a touchdown. The Bears are 7.5-point underdogs and likely to experience negative game script again this week.
Good luck this week, and be sure to use our Tools to research the Pick’Em players yourself.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
