The Defenses and Kickers Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
The Big Three Defenses
The following defenses have the three-highest salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Pittsburgh and Seattle are priced within the top-three on FanDuel but not on DraftKings.
- New England ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
- Miami ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
- Denver ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
The Rookie vs. The Hoodie
The most-expensive defense on DraftKings’ main slate, the New England Patriots welcome the Houston Texans into Foxboro as gigantic 14.5-point favorites. According to the Trends tool, in seven games since 2014 in which the Patriots have been favored by at least 13 points, the defense has averaged 11.86 points per game on both DraftKings and FanDuel. They have been less owned on average (17.5 percent) on DraftKings, but they have produced a higher Plus/Minus (+4.21) on FanDuel, where they have an enticing 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Per our NFL Models, Houston’s +4.8 Plus/Minus allowed to opposing defenses is the highest on the slate, and New England is tied for fifth with their 3.0 projected sacks. Additionally, rookie quarterbacks playing in New England against the Bill Belichick-coached Patriots are 0-8 with five touchdowns and 16 interceptions since 2000. All things considered, paying up for the Patriots is likely to be worth the investment this week.
Anybody Playing the Jets
The Miami Dolphins are currently six-point (tied for fourth-highest) road favorites against the 0-2 New York Jets, who have scored just 32 points in two games this season. Miami currently has the highest projected ceiling (15.9) on the slate, they’re tied for seventh with their 1.66 takeaway percentage, and they’re tied for second with their 3.1 projected sacks. Jets QB Josh McCown has been picked off twice and sacked five times in two games this season. The Jets have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game (37.6) and second-most FanDuel points per game (32.8) to RBs this season, so pairing Jay Ajayi with the Dolphins defense could be a sharp move this week according to our NFL Correlations page. Fins up.
Orange Crush
Per Pro Football Reference, through the first two games of the season, just 25 percent of opponent drives have resulted in a score (sixth-lowest) against the Denver Broncos, while 13 percent of drives have ended in an offensive turnover (11th-highest). According to Football Outsiders, Denver’s 32.2 percent pressure rate led the league in 2016. Denver’s 3.01 percent of touchdowns allowed in our Models leads the slate. Like Miami, Denver is a road favorite, but they are favored by just three points at Buffalo currently. Per the Trends tool, defenses favored by one to five points on the road have averaged 8.41 points with a +0.71 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 8.36 points with a +0.93 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. These road favorites have averaged under six percent ownership, however, which potentially makes the Denver D/ST a good play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) this week.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Cleveland Browns ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel): The Browns — 1.5-point favorites on the road in Indianapolis — currently have the fourth-highest ceiling projection (14.8) on FanDuel and sixth-highest projected ceiling (13.4) on DraftKings. They have an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where they are projected for just two to four percent ownership. If you’re into trying to win GPPs as a contrarian, stacking the Cleveland D/ST with Isaiah Crowell — a Model RB in this week’s Breakdown — would be sneaky sharp.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Pittsburgh’s 3.6 projected sacks in our Models is the highest projection in the slate this week. Their 8.8 sack percentage in the last calendar year is also the best in the slate. They travel to Chicago as rather large 7.5-point road favorites to take on Mike Glennon and the Bears, who have managed just 24 points in their first two games. We currently have Pittsburgh projected for less than five percent ownership on DraftKings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Tampa’s four percent defensive interception rate leads the slate, and their 7.37 sack percentage ranks seventh in our Models this week. The Buccaneers are currently two-point underdogs on the road in Minnesota, but if Sam Bradford is unable to play or unable to move in the pocket because of his knee injury, Tampa Bay could pile up takeaways in this one.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
The most-expensive kicker on FanDuel, Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200) is playing for a team with the highest-implied point total (29.3) in the slate. His 11.4 projected points is the third-highest projection this week, and his 9.1 fantasy points per game (PPG) over the past 12 months is the fifth-highest total among kickers. Per the Trends tool, kickers playing as huge favorites at home with high-implied team totals have generated 10.97 FanDuel points and a +2.78 Plus/Minus with 64.7 percent Consistency. Gostkowski has averaged 13.14 PPG and a +4.80 Plus/Minus with perfect Consistency in seven similar situations since 2014. Stacking Gostkowski and the Patriots D/ST is likely to be both popular and profitable.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Giorgio Tavecchio ($4,800): The No. 1 rated kicker in Adam Levitan’s Model, Tavecchio can be had for $400 less than Gostkowski this week. The Raiders are implied to score the second-most points (29) in the slate, and Tavecchio checks in with a top-six point projection this week. The slate-high 55 point over/under and modest three-point spread could lead to a big day from the kicker.
Mason Crosby ($5,000): Crosby’s 11.5 projected points are tied atop our Models this week, where we have Mason projected for five to eight percent ownership currently — making him a possible pivot off of some chalkier kickers. The Packers are implied to score 27.3 points at home, where they are favored by eight points. Crosby’s +3.22 Projected Plus/Minus ranks second this week. Playing in similar spots previously, Crosby has produced an average of 8.59 PPG and a +0.48 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).
Matt Bryant ($4,900): Nobody on the slate has come close to Bryant’s 11.3 fantasy PPG over the past calendar year. The 51-point over/under in the Falcons game is the second-highest total on the slate, and Bryant is tied for third with his 11.2 projected points. He’s likely to be one of the highest-owned kickers this week.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
