The Week 17 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 17 Tight Ends
“Listen to the words he used: ‘Who’s going to take over the world when I die?’ It feels like that to some of us sometimes, doesn’t it?”
— Therapist, Austin Powers
Zeus at Mount Olympus
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan mentioned Travis Kelce ($5,000 DK, $6,800 FD) as the ‘chalk lock’ TE for cash games. The extent to which Kelce is dominating the position right now can’t be overstated. He leads the slate with eight DraftKings and nine FanDuel Pro Trends. He’s the highest-rated FD TE in the Levitan Model.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kelce is sixth in the NFL (and the No. 1 TE) with 28.95 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games:
In the Chiefs’ Week 9 matchup with the Jaguars, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a groin injury and left the game. In the seven weeks since then, Kelce has been the team’s primary receiver. Per our Trends tool:
Over that period of time, Kelce has easily been the TE1 in points per game (PPG), and his Consistency has been excellent for the position.
Additionally, unlike many other TEs, Kelce still has something to play for this week. (For a global perspective on the Week 17 league dynamics, consult my piece on the current playoff picture.) The Chiefs are four-point road favorites implied to score 24.25 points against the Chargers, who are a mediocre 16th in pass defense against TEs per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
With a victory and a Raiders loss, the Chiefs can win the AFC West and clinch the No. 2 seed. They’re incentivized, and nothing about the matchup suggests that Kelce should struggle. Rather, we’re expecting him to thrive. Kelce not only has the position’s highest median projection and Projected Plus/Minus values — for both DK and FD — but he also has the highest ceiling and floor projections.
He leads all TEs with FantasyLabs ownership projections in excess of 25 percent.
Given Kelce’s production and projected ownership, one of the biggest decisions of the week is whether to roster him.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Jordan Reed ($5,100 DK, $7,000 FD) and Vernon Davis ($3,300 DK, $4,800 FD): Reed (shoulder) missed Week 13, garnered only two targets total in Weeks 14-15, and missed Week 16. He’s officially questionable, but even if he’s active this weekend — monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed — he’s unrosterable as anything other than a speculative play in guaranteed prize pools.
Davis is theoretically intriguing against the Giants, who are 25th in pass DVOA against TEs, but he’s done relatively little over the past four weeks even with Reed limited. Per RotoViz:
Nevertheless, the Redskins are at least one of the few teams with a reason to play. They’re 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points. The Redskins have a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs with a win, and the Giants are locked in as the No. 5 seed and likely to play at less than full strength.
Brandon Myers ($2,700 DK, $4,500 FD): Starting TE Cameron Brate (back) suffered an injury in last week’s game and is now on Injured Reserve. In Brate’s stead, Myers had a season-high six targets in Week 16. This week he’s facing the Panthers, who this season have allowed TEs to score 16.5 DK and 13.9 FD PPG — the third- and second-highest totals in the league. They’re second with 12 TDs allowed to the position.
Myers is projected for almost no ownership.
Martellus Bennett ($3,900 DK, $5,800 FD): Bennett (ankle, shoulder) is officially questionable for Week 17, but he’s yet to miss a game this season with an injury. He may play limited snaps, but he’ll almost certainly play.
The Patriots are 10-point road favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Dolphins, who are 22nd in pass DVOA against TEs and have allowed them this season to score 15.2 DK and 12.2 FD PPG — the sixth-highest marks in the league. Only three teams have allowed more than their nine TDs to TEs.
Bennett has actually done worse this season without Rob Gronkowski (back) . . .
. . . but Bennett is still first on the team with six touchdowns, second with 668 yards, and third with 68 targets and 52 receptions.
The Patriots can clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory, and the Dolphins have little incentive to compete, as they are locked in as an AFC wildcard.
Bennett’s ownership projection is almost nonexistent.
Jared Cook ($3,100 DK, $4,800 FD) and Richard Rodgers ($2,500 DK, $4,600 FD): The Packers are three-point road favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Lions, who are 29th in pass DVOA against TEs and have allowed them to score 22 TDs over the last 31 games. The winner of this game will be the NFC North champ. The loser will risk missing the playoffs.
Charles Clay ($3,500 DK, $5,600 FD): Clay (knee) is questionable for Week 17 but expected to play. Clay has 6.1 targets per game over his last 10 contests, and since missing Week 13 for the birth of his child he’s been the No. 1 fantasy TE:
It doesn’t get any more #NarrativeStreet than that, folks.
Kids gotta eat.
Of course, during his three-game reign as emperor of the TE universe, Clay has been blessed with a couple of soft matchups, and this week he has another one against the Jets, who have allowed 14.7 DK and 12.0 FD PPG to TEs this season.
Will Tye ($2,800 DK, $4,600 FD), Jerrell Adams ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD), and Larry Donnell ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): The Giants are locked in as the No. 5 seed and will likely give a number of snaps to off-the-radar players. They’re facing the Redskins, who are 26th in pass DVOA against TEs and this season have allowed TEs to score 17.4 DK and 13.1 FD PPG — the second- and third-highest marks in the league. The Redskins easily lead the NFL with their 149 targets, 110 receptions, and 1,131 yards allowed to the position.
Antonio Gates ($3,800 DK, $5,800 FD) and Hunter Henry ($2,700 DK, $5,300 FD): Gates is one score away from tying Tony Gonzalez with a record 111 TDs for a TE. Gates has spent his entire career with the Chargers, who are playing (presumably) their last game in San Diego. They’re hosting the Chiefs, with whom Gonzalez played for 12 years and for whom he scored 76 of those 111 TDs. Gonzo is one of the most beloved players in franchise history. This season, the Chiefs have allowed a league-low two TDs to TEs (as well as bottom-four marks of 8.7 DK and 6.9 FD PPG).
In a game that should mean something to the Chargers but probably means little, expect to see Chiefs safety Eric Berry glued to Gates in the red zone. Berry is a top-three cover safety per Pro Football Focus with a coverage grade of 88.8.
This game matters for the Chiefs, who can claim the AFC West with a win and a Raiders loss. If Gates scores a TD in this game, it will be through the sheer divine will of the fantasy gawds.
With Berry on Gates, don’t be surprised if Henry actually has a decent game and even scores a TD. Henry leads the Chargers with seven TDs. (Gates has six.) Quarterback Philip Rivers loves throwing to TEs in the red zone.
Coby Fleener ($3,100 DK, $4,800 FD): The Saints are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points against the Falcons in a game with a slate-high 56.5-point over/under. Fleener’s disappointed this season, but out of the pass catchers he’s still fourth on the team in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. This season the Falcons have allowed to TEs 15.9 DK and 12.7 FD PPG — the fifth-highest totals in the league.
Fleener is the highest-rated FD TE in the Sports Geek Model, and his projected ownership is low. Shh!
Greg Olsen ($5,500 DK, $6,900 FD): There’s nothing special about Olsen this week other than the fact that he’s Greg F*cking Olsen. He leads the Panthers with 125 targets, 77 receptions, and 1,051 yards receiving.
Delanie Walker ($4,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Walker’s basically the co-WR1 for the Titans — but he’s in a bad spot. QB Marcus Mariota (ankle) is out, pretend backup QB Matt Cassel is in, and the Titans are playing against the Texans, who are locked in as the No. 4 seed but still expected to “play to win,” per head coach Bill O’Brien.
The Texans are first in pass DVOA against TEs and have held them to bottom-four marks of 8.9 DK and 6.8 FD PPG.
Zach Ertz ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD): Ertz leads the Eagles with 22.22 percent of the team’s targets over the last month, and he’s facing a Dallas defense that has nothing to play for and is 30th in pass DVOA against TEs. This season, the Cowboys have allowed 15.0 DK and 11.8 FD PPG to TEs.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,600 DK, $5,900 FD): Rudolph leads the Vikings with 22.54 percent of the team’s targets over the last month, and he’s facing a Bears defense that is 28th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Jimmy Graham ($4,500 DK, $6,400 FD): Graham has only 12.41 percent of the Seahawks’ targets over the last month and now seems no more important to the team than WR Jermaine Kearse, whose best attribute is his ability to block. Nevertheless, the Seahawks are 10-point road favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the 49ers, who are 27th in pass DVOA.
With a win and a Falcons loss, the Seahawks can claim the No. 2 seed. They’d be wise to give targets to perhaps the best receiver on their team.
Dennis Pitta ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD): Pitta is second on the Ravens with 16.76 percent of their targets over the last four games, and he’s facing a Bengals defense that this season has allowed 16.2 DK and 13.0 FD PPG to TEs. He’s the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Jesse James ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) and Xavier Grimble ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): Starting TE Ladarius Green (concussion) is out. The Steelers are locked in as the No. 3 seed and likely to give playing time to second- and third-stringers. James and Grimble could both see significant snaps.
The Steelers are 5.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.25 points against the Browns, who are dead last in DVOA against TEs and this season have allowed league-high totals of 19.1 DK and 15.3 FD PPG to the position. The Browns have also allowed a league-high 13 TDs to TEs.
We’re projecting zero to one percent ownership for James and Grimble — who sound like the partners of a law practice in a novel by Charles Dickens.
The Coda
The Lions are three-point home underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against the Packers. With a win, the Lions will be the NFC North champs and maybe even the No. 2 seed. With a loss, they could miss the playoffs entirely. They’re motivated . . .
. . . but that doesn’t mean that Eric Ebron ($3,600 DK, $5,800 FD) is in a good spot. He’s cheap considering that he’s second on the team with 18.99 percent of the targets over the last four weeks — and his price is partially why he ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models — but the Packers are sixth in pass DVOA against TEs.
Would it be unlike Ebron to fail when his team needs him most?
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
