The Week 17 NFL Dashboard
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Week 17 Running Backs
“Same jacket.”
— General Organa
RB Pricing
Pricing is all over the place because it’s Week 17. Some teams have no incentive to play. Other teams have every incentive. For a global perspective on this week’s league dynamics, consult my piece on the current playoff picture.
Even with the randomness Week 17 provides, some trends hold true. As I’ve highlighted previously in the RB Breakdown, RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
The average Bargain Rating for the three DK RBs with the highest salaries is literally zero percent — as was the case last week. On FD, not one RB has a Bargain Rating less than 17 percent.
For the entire slate on both DK and FD, three of the four most expensive players are RBs. They collectively cost $29,100 on DK. On FD, they’re collectively $700 cheaper — even though FD has $10,000 more cap space.
Fortunately, this week it’s much easier than usual to find value (on both sites) . . . because it’s Week 17.
The Big Three Two
This would’ve been the Big Three, but Le’Veon Bell ($10,400 DK, $10,000 FD) is expected to rest (per our NFL News feed) since the Steelers are locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC. As a result, we’re left with the Big Two, who (out of the RBs expected not to rest) are the guys with the most points per game (PPG) on the season. The Big Two is a formidable duo. Per our Trends tool:
Note the higher Plus/Minus and Consistency on FD as well as the lower ownership. That’s not a coincidence. Remember that RBs are cheaper on FD than DK, and we see it in the Big Two’s production.
You know who these guys are:
• David Johnson: $9,800 DK, $9,300 FD
• LeSean McCoy: $8,900 DK, $9,100 FD
Here are a few points about these guys:
- Note that DK is placing a massive premium on DJ’s receiving ability. With Bell out, DJ is in a DK tier unto himself. At the same time, the gap between DJ and McCoy is somehow not as large as the $1,200 gap between McCoy and the next RB, Melvin Gordon ($7,700 DK, $7,900 FD), who is still dealing with hip and knee issues and might not play. On FD, the gap between McCoy and the next RB is $1,100 if we discount Ezekiel Elliott ($7,400 DK, $8,800 FD), who seems unlikely to play more than a couple of quarters, since the Cowboys are locked in as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Bottom line: Based on salary and positional scarcity, these two are easily in their own tier as the slate’s premium RBs.
- Both are workhorses who in any game have a good chance of getting 20 touches even though their teams are out of the playoffs. They’re valuable because of their high expected volume.
- They both have good pass-catching skills.
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
The Big Johnson
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Adam Levitan mentioned Johnson as his ‘chalk lock’ RB. We’re expecting DJ to receive a lot of ownership that otherwise would’ve gone to Bell. As a result, DJ easily leads the slate with FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31-40 percent. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
Given Johnson’s production, salary, and projected ownership, one of the biggest decisions of the week is whether to roster him.
Johnson is easily the slate’s RB1 in PPG and Plus/Minus:
With the 6-8-1 Cardinals out of the playoff race, Johnson might seem like a risky play, but the Cardinals have had no concrete incentive for the last three games, and Johnson’s still seen his regular usage. Per RotoViz:
The Cardinals are six-point road favorites with an implied Vegas total of 23.25 points. They’re facing the Rams, who are sixth against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), so DJ doesn’t have a great matchup. At the same time, it’s been almost a year since he hasn’t gotten 100 scrimmage yards in a game.
It’s hard to overstate just how dominant Johnson has been this season. He’s getting all the production on the Cardinals. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, over the last four games Johnson leads the slate’s RBs with 82.11 and 22.38 percent of his team’s rushes and targets. That receiving workload in particular is unbelievable.
On top of that, he’s dominated opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games:
Of course, that makes sense: We’re talking about a guy who has 33 career touchdowns in 31 games, even though he’s started only 20 contests.
Per Player Profiler, Johnson leads the slate with 98 evaded tackles, which isn’t surprising given that he leads the NFL with 2,074 scrimmage yards and 20 TDs.
Johnson easily — easily — has the slate’s highest ceiling and floor projections as well as median projections.
If he were a Doors song, he’d be “The Crystal Ship.” He’s the highest-rated RB in the Levitan Model on FD, where he’s second at the position with 12 Pro Trends. On DK he leads the slate with eight Pro Trends.
May I Have Your Attention Please?
It’s been a while since McCoy sabotaged us with hamstring and thumb injuries. When healthy, McCoy has been a total workhorse, averaging 22.5 opportunities per game:
The Bills are 3.5-point road favorites implied to score 22.75 points against the Jets. In the words of Gimli, “You could’ve picked a better spot.”
It’s nice that the Bills are favored, but the implied total isn’t attractive, and the Jets have a pass-flowing funnel defense that is third in rush DVOA. Plus, Mike Gillislee ($4,500 DK, $5,200 FD) and the quarterbacks have stolen a lot of opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games:
Still, McCoy has averaged a TD per game this year, and the Jets have been exploited by the pricier RBs to face them:
McCoy is one of the slate’s few RBs whom we can reasonably expect to touch the ball 20 times. He’s first in the league with 1.4 runs of 15-plus yards per game. He’s second at the position in median, ceiling, and floor projections. He’s third with seven DK and 11 FD Pro Trends. He’s scored multiple TDs in four games this season and has seven TDs in his last six. If you’re looking to get away from DJ . . .
. . . McCoy is a strong option. He’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Also, if you think that McCoy’s not going to get much run, consider Gillislee, who might be the best backup RB in the league. He has seven TDs in the last 10 games played and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on the season. He has at least eight carries in six of the last seven games. In those six games . . .
. . . he’s been more than competent.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
By the way, did I remind you that it’s Week 17?
Jordan Howard ($6,800 DK, $7,400 FD): Over the last four games, Howard leads the Bears with 79.21 percent of the team’s total carries and also with six opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Whenever Howard has gotten double-digit carries . . .
. . . he’s been good, and he’s maintained his production with Matt Barkley as the starting QB over the last five weeks:
The Bears are 6.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 18 points against the Vikings, who are 15th in rush DVOA.
- It’s not great that the Bears are underdogs — but they’ve been underdogs each of the last five games and still managed to produce.
- Howard’s one of the few RBs in the slate with a high probability of getting at least 18 opportunities in Week 17.
In case you hadn’t noticed, this week is basically about chasing touches, which I believe was the working title for the 1997 Kevin Smith film.
Rex Burkhead ($3,500 DK, $4,500 FD): Cheaper than dirt, Burkhead has been an uber-competent injury fill-in for Giovani Bernard (knee) over the last five weeks, turning 8.2 rushes and 3.2 targets into 56.4 yards per game:
Jeremy Hill (knee) has been playing through an injury for the last few weeks and is expected to miss a Week 17 game that is meaningless for both participants. With Hill out, Burkhead will ‘compete’ for touches with the 30-year-old Cedric Peerman ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD), who hasn’t touched the ball as a RB in over two years. In other words, Burkhead’s the man.
Unfortunately, the spot is pretty much garbage. The Bengals are one-point home favorites implied to score only 21.25 points against the Ravens, who are first in rush DVOA. The game’s 41.5-point over/under is sadly low.
Nevertheless, Burkhead has top-eight Projected Plus/Minus values and could do some damage through the air: He’s an underrated athlete and receiver, and the Ravens are 24th in pass DVOA against RBs.
This year, the Bengals RBs have collectively averaged 24 carries and 6.4 targets per game.
Spencer Ware ($5,500 DK, $7,200 FD): The Chiefs are 5.5-point road favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Chargers, who have nothing to play for — not even city pride — and have allowed RBs to score 26.9 DK and 23.3 FD PPG, the sixth- and seventh-highest totals in the league.
Do the Chiefs really plan to win the No. 2 seed by letting quarterback Alex Smith throw the ball?
Latavius Murray ($5,200 DK, $6,900 FD): Do the Raiders really plan to win the No. 2 seed by letting quarterback Matt McGloin throw the ball?
The Raiders are one-point road underdogs implied to score 19.75 points against the Broncos, so it’s not a great situation — but the Broncos have a run-flowing funnel defense that’s 26th in rush DVOA.
The Raiders figure to run the ball a lot, and only four RBs have more carries inside the five-yard line than Murray with 16, which he’s converted into nine TDs. Even if DeAndre Washington ($3,800 DK, $4,500 FD) and Jalen Richard ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD) continue to steal carries and targets, Latavius should get his touches too.
They’re all projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Alfred Morris ($3,800 DK, $4,500 FD): The Cowboys might want to rest Zeke and Darren McFadden ($4,300 DK, $4,500 FD), and Lance Dunbar ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) is more of a receiver than a runner. Enter ALF, who’s built to handle 15-plus trash carries for the team that leads the league with its 49.95 percent run rate.
Chris Ivory ($4,100 DK, $5,300 FD): In last week’s game, which T.J. Yeldon (ankle) exited early due to injury, Ivory carried the ball 14 times. Yeldon is now on Injured Reserve, and Ivory is expected to serve as the workhorse in this meaningless game.
In his three games this year with at least 14 carries . . .
. . . Ivory has done well.
The Jaguars are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.25 points. That seems bad, but the Jags are always dogs on the road, and they’re playing the Colts, who are 30th in rush DVOA.
Ivory has top-five Projected Plus/Minus values and ownership projections of less than nine percent.
Bobby Rainey ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): The Giants are locked into the No. 5 seed. They have no incentive to compete and are expected to rest most of their core players as 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.75 points against the Redskins, who are almost certain to make the playoffs with a victory.
So it’s a bad spot for whoever gets carries for the Giants. At the same time, it’s possible that Rainey could get most of the carries with Rashad Jennings ($4,200 DK, $5,600 FD) and Paul Perkins ($3,400 DK, $4,500 FD) playing almost no snaps, and the Redskins defense has allowed RBs to score 28.0 DK and 24.4 FD PPG — the third-highest totals in the league.
Rainey’s a good receiver, and in his five-year career he’s been productive whenever he’s had eight-plus carries in a game:
He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,900 DK, $5,200 FD): Doug Martin averaged 2.9 yards per carry this year. He needed performance-enhancing drugs. Anyway, with Martin suspended and Charles Sims (pectoral) on IR, Quizz once again is the lead back for the Buccaneers.
In his 12 career games with at least 12 carries, Rodgers has been competent at worst:
The Bucs have less than a one percent chance to make the playoffs — but they still have a chance and will play to win this weekend. The Bucs are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Panthers.
In his four games this year as the team’s lead back, Quizz has averaged 22.5 carries and 2.5 targets per game.
Quizz is small — small enough to be a piece of chalk — but that’s appropriate.
Thomas Rawls ($5,800 DK, $7,400 FD): Rawls (shoulder) is reportedly practicing fully and expected to play this weekend. Rawls seems to have the backfield almost all to himself, and that’s great, but it’s possible that . . .
. . . Rawls’ Week 13 performance was an outlier. He’s been amazingly disappointing this season.
That said, the Seahawks are 10-point road favorites implied to score 26.75 points against the 49ers, who this season have allowed RBs to score league-high marks of 34.5 DK and 30.1 FD PPG.
Take a look at this:
Those are the 18 RBs who have accumulated double-digit rushes against the 49ers this season. They’ve balled the f*ck out.
You’ll notice the presence of some No. 2 RBs on the list. In some weeks, two RBs on a team have doubled up on the 49ers. In other weeks, the lead RBs suffered injuries during the game, and the backups benefited. Alex Collins ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD) might be in play.
The Seahawks can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and a Falcons loss.
Todd Gurley ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD): Gurley has sucked with Jared Goff just about as much as he sucked with Case Keenum:
Consistency isn’t always a virtue.
Rob Kelley ($4,400 DK, $5,900 FD): Ignore that the Giants defense is fourth in rush DVOA. Instead focus on the fact that the Redskins are highly likely to make the playoffs if they win and are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against a team that plans to rest its core players.
Kelley has six TDs in his eight games as a starter, and he’s done especially well as a favorite:
Kelley has top-10 Projected Plus/Minus values and ownership projections lower than nine percent.
Darren Sproles ($4,000 DK, $5,500 FD) and Byron Marshall ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): On the one hand, the Eagles are four-point favorites implied to score 23.5 points against a Cowboys team that is unmotivated to compete fully. On the other hand, neither Sproles nor Marshall is a true lead back, and the Cowboys this season have held RBs to 19.4 DK and 16.8 FD PPG — bottom-three marks in the league.
Alfred Blue ($4,300 DK, $5,600 FD): When a backup RB is expected to start and his team in Week 17 is locked into the No. 4 seed and implied to score only 18.75 points as three-point road underdogs against a team that’s allowed RBs to score only 19.3 DK and 16.9 FD PPG — the second- and fourth-lowest totals in the league — am I supposed to be excited about that?
I’m asking for a friend.
Bilal Powell ($6,500 DK, $6,600 FD) and Shaun Draughn ($3,200 DK, $4,600 FD): Both backup pass-catching RBs expected to start for teams that are dead, Powell and Draughn are similar, except that Draughn is much cheaper and has high Projected Plus/Minus values. Powell has the higher ceiling, but it’s not that much higher. Arbitrage.
Ty Montgomery ($5,700 DK, $6,700 FD): In Ty’s five games without James Starks ($3,000 DK, $4,800 FD), he’s been inconsistent but productive:
Starks (concussion) has neither played nor practiced for the last two weeks and is expected not to play this week. The Packers are 3.5-point road favorites implied to score 26.5 points against the Lions, who are 22nd in rush DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA against RBs.
Whichever team wins this game will be the NFC North champ.
Zach Zenner ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD): One top-12 performance does not a lead back make — but last week Zenner did turn 12 carries and three targets into 92 yards and two TDs against the Cowboys, who are holding RBs to 19.4 DK and 16.8 FD PPG — the third-lowest and absolutely lowest totals in the league.
The Lions are home underdogs implied to score 23 points against the Packers, who are 12th in rush DVOA. The spot isn’t great for Zenner, but it looks like he’ll once again operate as the team’s lead back with Theo Riddick (wrist) still yet to practice.
Devonta Freeman ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD) and Tevin Coleman ($5,100 DK, $6,400 FD): The Falcons are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 32 points against the Saints, who this season have allowed RBs to score 27.2 DK and 24.2 FD PPG — the fifth- and fourth-highest marks in the league. The Saints are also 31st in pass DVOA against RBs, and both Devonta and Tevin are strong receivers.
Freeman and Coleman have 18 of the team’s 19 TDs rushing and a combined 22 TDs on the year. With a win, the Falcons will clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Coleman is best for guaranteed prize pools because of his uncertain usage. Freeman is an option for both cash games and GPPs. Even with Coleman stealing touches, Freeman has produced this year as a home favorite:
We’re projecting Freeman to be one of the slate’s five chalkiest RBs.
The Super Models
We currently have four non-DJ RBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Mark Ingram: $5,600 DK, $6,100 FD
• Fitzgerald Toussaint: $4,300 DK, $4,500 FD
• James White: $3,800 DK, $4,500 FD
• Matt Asiata: $3,000 DK, $5,000 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
Angry Ingram
Mad Mark has been the lead back in the Saints’ base formation over the last month . . .
. . . and he’s out-snapped Tim Hightower ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD) 89-42 over the last two weeks, during which time — despite having some goal-line touches stolen — Ingram has been a top-10 fantasy RB:
But the problem with Ingram is that Hightower has still managed to steal high-leverage opportunities from him over the last month . . .
. . . and in Weeks 13-14 he was seriously one of the least-productive RBs in the league:
There’s an underappreciated chance that Ingram’s Week 17 usage will not be as advantageous as his Weeks 15-16 usage.
Nevertheless, Ingram is in a good spot. The Saints are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points against the Falcons. The ‘road underdog’ part of that sucks — but the game has a slate-high 56.5-point over/under and the Falcons defense is 28th in rush DVOA.
On top of that, Ingram’s a good receiving back who gets targeted near the goal line (he’s turned 50 targets into a 40/290/4 stat line), and the Falcons lead the NFL with 128 targets, 100 receptions, and 823 yards receiving allowed to RBs. Only the Colts have allowed RBs more than their five TDs receiving.
We’re projecting Ingram to be one of the five highest-owned RBs in the slate. He’s the highest-rated DK and FD RB in the Sports Geek Model, and he grabs the highest FD rating in the Bales Model as well.
Fitzy T’aint
There’s (probably) nothing special about Toot Sweet. In 2014, he entered the NFL as an old undrafted free agent with subpar college production, ‘meh’ athleticism, a serious leg injury in his medical history, and a suspension in his personnel file.
In his three NFL seasons, he has turned 35 carries into 98 yards, no TDs, and infinite sadness. Over the last seven games, he’s served as Le’Veon’s backup as DeAngelo Williams ($5,500 DK, $4,500 FD) has recovered from knee surgery. In those games, Toussaint has carried the ball a total of seven times. He’s been so invisible that if he were ever represented in a movie he’d be played by John C. Reilly.
So why do we like T’aint? Le’Veon’s expected to rest, and Williams might not get much (if any) playing time with his knee issue. Toussaint has a chance to get substantial carries, especially since the Steelers are six-point home favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Browns, who defensively are 31st in rush DVOA and have allowed RB units to score 28.8 DK and 25.6 FD PPG — the second-highest totals in the league.
He’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Levitan Model.
Short and Sweet
White is the highest-rated FD RB in the CSURAM88 Model not because he’s a great player but because he’s the stone minimum. That said, his +4.89 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and zero to one percent projected ownership on FD are enticing.
It’s very possible that LeGarrette Blount ($5,700 DK, $7,600 FD) and Dion Lewis ($4,000 DK, $5,200 FD) could earn most of the RB touches in this game, but even with Lewis back White has managed to be reasonably productive on his limited touches over the last six weeks:
The Patriots are 10-point road favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the Dolphins, who are 9-1 in their last 10 games but largely unmotivated to compete in Week 17 as they are locked in to the playoffs as a wild card. The Pats, meanwhile, can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win.
White should get some touches against a team primarily concerned with exiting Week 17 healthy.
LOL LMAO ROFL WTF
As has happened too many times often this year, Asiata is the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models. Asiata is more-or-less the least impressive fullback ever to pretend to be a running back — but this week he has some factors in his favor.
- He’s not Adrian Peterson.
- The Vikings are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Bears, who are 27th in rush DVOA.
- He’s tied for fourth in the NFL with 17 rush attempts inside the five-yard line.
- He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
I’m stopping here for fear that if I write more you’ll believe that I think you should roster him.
The Coda
His Week 16 outburst notwithstanding, he’s had a tough go of it recently, primarily because his offensive line has melted away like Voldemort’s face . . .
. . . but Jay Ajayi ($5,900 DK, $7,300 FD) is still a guy with GPP-winning, multi-TD upside every week. Since becoming the lead RB in Week 5, Ajayi in the aggregate has been a stud:
His potential absolutely must be respected, regardless of his matchup.
Now then, let’s take a look at whom the Dolphins are playing . . .
. . . Patriots, fifth in rush DVOA, fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs . . .
. . . never mind.
Kill the spare.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
