The Week 16 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 16 Running Backs
2016 has been a bounceback year for the RB position. After an entire offseason filled with rhetoric about the devaluation of the position, Ezekiel Elliott was selected fourth overall in the 2016 NFL Draft (regardless of whether that was a good decision), DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy have proved that RBs older than 27 can still be good, and nine RBs have already surpassed 1,000 rushing yards after only seven reached that threshold last season.
So does this mean that there’s a new outlook on what we should look for in a DFS RB? Not really. Volume is still everything. Now let’s talk RB pricing.
RB Pricing
RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel. Out of the top-15 most expensive RBs this week, 14 are better bargains on FD. Only four RBs priced over $5,000 DK are better bargains on that site: LeGarrette Blount, DeAngelo Williams, Doug Martin, and Jeremy Hill. Williams has been priced up for weeks to prevent the inevitable free-for-all that would ensue if Le’Veon Bell were to suffer a mid-week injury. The other guys are all non-receiving threats.
Basically, it’s hard to find value on DK at RB.
The Big Four
Two of this week’s four most expensive RBs have matchups against the top run defenses in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Melvin Gordon would likely be more expensive for his matchup against the Browns if not for his uncertain status.
The four most expensive backs this week are all studs who get fed the ball on a weekly basis. Per our Trends tool, the four most expensive RBs on DK and FD have absolutely dominated through 15 weeks:
Without further ado, Week 16’s Big Four:
• Le’Veon Bell: $9,400 DK (RB1), $9,500 FD (RB1)
• David Johnson: $9,200 DK (RB2), $8,700 FD (RB4)
• LeSean McCoy: $9,000 DK (RB3), $9,100 FD (RB2)
• Ezekiel Elliott: $7,900 DK (RB4), $8,900 FD (RB3)
A quick glance at this group tells us a few things:
- Bell is the clear leader. He’s the most-expensive back on both sites by a good amount.
- Johnson drops from DK RB2 to FD RB4. He has a tough matchup against the Seahawks, and it makes sense that he would be cheaper on FD, where his receiving upside is diminished.
- Elliott’s price tag has dropped $300 DK but risen $400 FD since last week. Lance Dunbar and Darren McFadden combined for three targets last week, but Zeke was targeted three times himself. His receiving upside may not be as high as it was when Alfred Morris was the clear No. 2 back, but Zeke is still getting plenty of touches.
Let’s get to the beasts.
Le’Veon Bell
The Ravens run defense is very good. It’s first in rush DVOA and is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. Even Bell has historically had some trouble making his way through the bear trap that is the Ravens’ front seven. Per RotoViz:
Against the Ravens, Bell has averaged fewer carries, yards, touchdowns, and targets, which translates into more than 3.5 fewer PPR points per game (PPG) against the Ravens.
So Bell has a tough matchup this week, but he’s still the most expensive back on the slate. Why? Because he’s too special as a receiver, and the Ravens are 25th in pass DVOA against RBs.
Since Week 4, Bell and Johnson are the only RBs to have more than 60 targets and 500 receiving yards. Bell has been targeted 85 times this season, converting them into 72 receptions for 601 yards. Those are literally wide receiver numbers: Antonio Brown also has 72 receptions since Week 4. Bell clearly isn’t at Brown’s level as a receiver — his touchdowns and yards are lacking for that comparison — but that Bell has as many receptions as perhaps the best WR in the NFL shows the extent to which Bell is a valuable fantasy asset.
Bell has also been a beast as a home favorite:
Bell has posted a +6.31 DK Plus/Minus with 75 percent Consistency and has averaged 24.01 points as a home favorite over the past three seasons.
He’s a better bargain on FD this week, where he has a +4.47 Projected Plus/Minus and position-high 13 Pro Trends.
David Johnson
Everything great I just wrote about Bell as a receiver also apply to Johnson . . . except he’s even better. Johnson has 200-plus yards more than any other RB this season. His 98 targets are at least 20 more than the total for any RB with just one capital letter in his first name.
Johnson’s also similar to Bell in his matchup. He too is facing a division rival with an elite run defense. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs and are third in rush DVOA. Be sure to monitor the status of Michael Bennett, as the Seahawks defense suffers without its do-everything defensive lineman.
Bennett reportedly tweaked his neck during the Seahawks’ Week 15 win over the Rams, but coach Pete Carroll believes Bennett will be fine for Sunday. Overall, the Seahawks have allowed an average of 119.4 rushing yards per game without Bennett but just 81.55 rushing yards per game with him.
Johnson has ‘struggled’ somewhat against the Seahawks in his two games as a starter, averaging 22 carries for 69 yards and 5.5 receptions for 46 yards and scoring no TDs. Still, unlike Bell, Johnson has experienced a salary decline in accordance with his tough matchup: DJ hasn’t been this cheap since the last week of November.
While the matchup is an obvious issue, an underappreciated factor standing in Johnson’s way could be his workload. The Cardinals are out of the playoff race, and Johnson had just 16 touches last week — his fewest since Week 2. The Cardinals have talked about helping players meet milestones, and they could feed Johnson to get him his 15th straight game with 100 scrimmage yards. Still, if the Seahawks pull ahead quickly (they’re currently favored by 7.5 points), Johnson could have a curtailed workload.
Johnson has 100 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where his 25.6-point ceiling projection is the fourth highest in the slate. Even with a few factors working against him, Johnson is more than capable of having a massive game.
LeSean McCoy
Shady’s three-down workhorse status was put in jeopardy two weeks ago when offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn said that Mike Gillislee was the team’s goal-line back. Since then Shady has five carries for three TDs inside the red zone; Gillislee, two for one. More often than not, even when they get close to the goal line the Bills are keeping their No. 1 back on the field.
And how can you blame them? Shady’s average of 5.5 yards per carry is the highest mark among all RBs with 100-plus carries, and he’s ripped off 1.5 runs of 15-plus yards per game — the best mark among all RBs, per playerprofiler.com. Shady has also done well as a receiver lately, as QB Tyrod Taylor has targeted him seven times in two of his last three games.
McCoy’s ability as a receiver is especially significant, as Miami has struggled to slow down receiving backs this season:
The Dolphins have been very kind to RBs out of the backfield during their past six games. Only Todd Gurley as a receiver has failed to make them pay, and is that really surprising?
Shady’s 13 FD Pro Trends lead the slate, and he has a strong +4.47 Projected Plus/Minus as well. We’re projecting him to have a position-high 31-40 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
Ezekiel Elliott
The Cowboys won’t have anything to play for on Monday if the Eagles manage to upset the Giants on Thursday, but Elliott’s workload might be the same in any event. He’s had 22-plus touches in six straight games, and recent history tells us that the Cowboys won’t rest their workhorse even in a meaningless game. The Cowboys were 12-3 in 2014 with the division title already secured, but they still fed DeMarco Murray 23 touches during a blowout win.
Zeke has been among the league’s best RBs all season long. Player Profiler’s No. 1 run-blocking offensive line deserves plenty of credit, but Zeke has repeatedly made defenders miss and created big plays for himself. His 6.1 evaded tackles per game are third among all RBs, and his average of 1.1 runs of 15-plus yards per game is the second-highest mark.
Although Elliott is facing a Lions defense that’s 30th in rush DVOA, it’s actually been much better against the run lately. The Lions allowed 107 rushing yards per game during the first nine weeks of the season but have allowed just 84.2 rushing yards per game since. A big reason for their new-found success is stud linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has appeared in only three games but has played well enough to earn PFF’s 11th-highest grade against the run among all linebackers.
Elliott has been a consistent RB, and there’s little reason to believe that won’t be the case at home in a game the Cowboys are currently favored to win by 7.5 points. Keep in mind that the presence of Dunbar and McFadden lowers Elliott’s floor and ceiling just a bit. His 7.6-point projected floor on DK is the lowest among the Big Four.
Best of the Rest
Devonta Freeman ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD) and Tevin Coleman ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD): Since the Falcons’ Week 11 bye, Coleman has averaged 12 touches per game compared to 16.75 for Freeman. Linebacker Luke Kuechly didn’t play last week due to coach Ron Rivera not wanting to put him at risk in a meaningless game, but the Panthers run defense has still been solid during his absence, allowing fewer than 60 rushing yards in three of the last four games.
It’s a tough matchup, as the Panthers have been very stingy against receiving backs this season:
Coleman is the cheaper back, but Freeman’s $7,800 price tag on FD comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends.
DeMarco Murray ($7,000 DK, $8,400 FD): The Titans said they wanted Derrick Henry more involved in the offense after their Week 13 bye, and they weren’t kidding. Henry has 21 rushes over the past two games and has been especially utilized in the red zone. He has seven red-zone carries compared to three for Murray over the past two weeks.
Still, Murray has averaged 22 touches per game since Week 13 and now faces a Jaguars defense that he rushed for 123 yards and a touchdown against earlier in the season. He has a great matchup against a Jaguars front seven that has regularly allowed big runs right where Murray has excelled this season:
Per sharpfootballstats.com, the Jaguars defense has allowed over 35 percent of opponent explosive runs around left end, which is where Murray has killed defenses all season:
Murray is the fourth-highest rated FD RB in our Levitan Model and has 12 Pro Trends.
Todd Gurley ($6,500 DK, $7,900 FD): Gurley faces a 49ers defense that has allowed by far the most fantasy points to RBs this season and is 31st in rush DVOA. The 49ers have allowed three more rushing TDs than any other defense this season.
But when Gurley played against the 49ers in Week 1 — when NaVorro Bowman and other important starters were healthy — he converted his 18 carries into just 42 yards. Gurley hasn’t gained 100 rushing yards in a game this season, and he’s scored just five touchdowns through 15 weeks.
Gurley’s DK salary is the highest it’s been since mid-October. He’s $2,000 more expensive than he was just last week. He has a great matchup, but his salary-based expectation of 15.6 DK points is a mark he’s surpassed in just three of 14 games this season.
Jordan Howard ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD): Howard has averaged 22.25 touches per game since Matt Barkley took over under center in Week 12. He’s made good use of his touches all season, as his average of 3.0 yards after contact per rush is the third-best mark among all RBs with 100-plus carries this season. Howard is a rare three-down back with no competition for goal-line or receiving work. He has a great matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs and ranks sixth worst in rush DVOA. Overall, RBs who average at least 10 carries per game have balled out against the Redskins this season:
Howard has eight DK Pro Trends and a 24.2-point projected ceiling.
Latavius Murray ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD): Since the Raiders’ Week 10 bye Murray has averaged 19.6 touches per game. He now faces a Colts defense that has been gashed by almost every starting RB not named Adrian Peterson:
That 26.4 percent ownership is onerous, but we’re projecting Murray for just nine to 12 percent ownership:
Ty Montgomery ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): In Montgomery’s first game as a featured RB he converted 16 carries into 162 yards and two TDs. He also averaged 10.0 yards after contact per rush and avoided seven tackles, per Pro Football Focus. It’s not surprising that Montgomery, a former WR, has succeeded as a RB:
- Montgomery was a part-time RB at Stanford, racking up 36 carries during his final two seasons, most of which came as a true RB in the I-formation.
- He’s 6’0″ and weighs 221 pounds. That’s bigger than most RBs.
He’s facing the Vikings as a 6.5-point home favorite in potentially freezing temperatures. A RB on FD for weeks, Montgomery is now also a RB on DK, where his salary jumped $1,100 in one week. The Vikings have allowed 125-plus rushing yards in five of their last eight games.
LeGarrette Blount ($5,600 DK, $7,200 FD): Blount’s usage since the return of Dion Lewis hasn’t been an issue. Overall, he’s had fewer than 17 carries just once during his five games with Lewis in the lineup. The one game with fewer than 17 carries came against the Jets, but now Blount will face them as a massive home favorite. He’s balled out this season under those circumstances:
Even if the Patriots attack the Jets through the air, Blount’s average of 0.79 opportunities inside the opponent’s five-yard line per game gives him a good chance to find the end zone in a game in which the Patriots are currently implied to score a slate-high 30 points.
Just the Facts
Jay Ajayi ($5,600 DK, $6,700 FD): Ajayi hasn’t rushed for more than 80 yards since Week 9. He’s facing a Bills defense against which he rushed for 214 yards earlier this year. He has a zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on DK.
Doug Martin ($5,400 DK, $7,000 FD): The Saints have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs this season, and Martin has 16-plus touches in all six games he’s played since returning from injury. Martin is yet to average over 3.8 yards per carry in a single game and has averaged fewer than two targets per game with Charles Sims in the lineup.
Carlos Hyde ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD): Hyde has averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in five straight games and has averaged 18.6 carries over that span. The Rams have allowed fewer than 75 rushing yards in consecutive games against the Falcons and Seahawks.
Kenneth Farrow ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD): Gordon is officially out for Week 16. Farrow has rushed for 3.2 yards per carry this season. The Browns have allowed over 210 rushing yards in back-to-back games and over 100 rushing yards in nine straight games.
Mark Ingram ($4,400 DK, $6,300 FD) and Tim Hightower ($4,000 DK, $5,500): Since the Saints’ backfield became a committee in Week 9 . . .
Total touches: Ingram = 94, Hightower = 95
Fantasy points per opportunity: Ingram = 0.63, Hightower = 0.62 (sixth and seventh-highest marks among all RBs)
Ingram’s salary is the lowest it’s been all season, Hightower’s is the lowest since Week 9. The Buccaneers have allowed 115-plus rushing yards in seven of their last nine games.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks: By Matthew Freedman
• Wide Receivers: By Bryan Mears
• Tight Ends: By Kelly McCann
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
