The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 15 Wide Receivers
“See now, to me, that button is in the worst possible spot.”
— Jerry Seinfeld
WR Pricing
As I’ve pointed out in the WR Breakdown previously, our Bargain Rating metric indicates that WRs are ridiculously expensive on DraftKings and historically cheap on FanDuel.
For instance, if you look in the Player Models, you’ll see that only two of the 12 highest DK WR salaries belong to a player with a Bargain Rating of at least 10 percent. On FD, only two WRs in the entire slate have Bargain Ratings lower than 10 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that seven of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs. DK really values its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only four of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs.
The top WR costs $8,400 on DK and $8,600 on FD — even though FD’s salary cap is $10,000 higher than DK’s. There’s a disparity in WR pricing, and it’s significant. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big 10 Six Five Three
I thought about giving you the Big 10, but I could tell that you weren’t ready for it. Instead, I’m going to underwhelm you with the Big Three.
This week, we have a clear tier of three WRs at the top of the salary scale on both sites. It’s (almost) the same group we had last week. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values might not look all that impressive, but at a position as volatile as WR those numbers are good, especially when you take into account the raw points per game (PPG) and also the Consistency.
Here they are:
• Antonio Brown: $8,400 DK (WR1), $8,500 FD (WR2)
• Mike Evans: $8,300 DK (WR2), $8,200 FD (WR3)
• Odell Beckham: $8,000 DK (WR3), $8,600 FD (WR1)
Here are a few points about these guys:
- They are within a fairly tight salary range. In many cases you should be able to pivot from one WR to another if you want to do so.
- They collectively are separated from the WRs beneath them by at least $500. Moving up to this tier from a cheaper WR isn’t easy.
- They are the three WRs with the most PPG on the season — with the exception of Julio Jones ($8,100 DK, $8,400 FD) and A.J. Green ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD). Julio (toes) is already out. AJG is doubtful but will go through a pre-game workout. Monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed, and exercise extreme caution in using him this weekend. He’s risky at his salary.
Let’s shred this secondary.
Antonio Is Only as Good as His Road Favorite QB
I’m basically going to say what I said last week, because . . .
- I’m lazy;
- I’m on a deadline;
- I was right.
Brown might be the best WR in the NFL, but when the Steelers are road favorites QB Ben Roethlisberger turns into a liability:
What this means is that, when the Steelers are favored, Antonio is also much worse on the road than at home:
As you may have surmised, the Steelers are road favorites this week. They’re giving three points to the Bengals, and they have an implied Vegas total of 23.5 points.
In no way do Antonio’s home/road splits mean that he should automatically be faded, but the Bengals — despite ranking 17th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — are holding WRs units to 30.7 DK and 24.3 FD PPG — the third-lowest totals in the league.
Per our Matchups tool, Brown is expected to run most of routes against cornerback Adam Jones, Pro Football Focus’ No. 54 CB with a coverage grade of 75.5. That matchup isn’t insurmountable — Antonio is one of the best WRs in the NFL and Jones is an average veteran — but this year (per PFF) Jones has been targeted on a low 15 percent of his routes defended, and his 0.21 fantasy points allowed per route is a near-elite number.
On top of that, there’s the fact that Roethlisberger has been a subpar version of himself against Marvin Lewis’ Bengals ever since he entered the league:
Antonio always has the potential to go off for a big game, but ask yourself this question: Is it wise to pay up for a WR when he doesn’t even have a top-four ceiling projection?
Antonio has FantasyLabs ownership projections of no more than 20 percent, so at least that’s something in his favor. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
231 Pounds of 6’5″ Bad-Assery
Evans has now had two horribly disappointing weeks in a row. The production’s a little concerning, but what’s much more concerning is his target data. Per RotoViz:
Evans has never been efficient at catching the ball — for his career he has a 53.2 percent catch rate — so he needs high volume to be a consistent producer. That he had only a 4-42-0 stat line against the Saints is problematic, especially since last week the Saints defense was 26th in pass DVOA. That he had only eight targets in a game that wasn’t a blowout is horrifying.
The Buccaneers are seven-point road underdogs implied to score only 19.75 points. But it’s not all bad. As an underdog, Evans has essentially nonexistent home/road splits, and he’s playing against the Cowboys, who have a pass-friendly funnel defense allowing WR units to score 38.0 DK and 30.0 FD PPG.
Evans is expected to run most of his routes against CB Brandon Carr, who has an average PFF coverage grade of 76.3 but is still drastically outmatched. As John Proctor put it in this week’s WR/CB Matchups, “Carr is no concern for Evans.”
There is lots to like about Evans. Despite his recent dip in targets, he leads the NFL with 11.2 targets per game. He is third with 0.77 touchdowns per game and is sixth with 84.6 yards per game (YPG). Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Evans easily leads the Bucs with 226 offensive snaps and an elite 30.89 percent of the team targets over the last four weeks:
Like Brown, Evans is projected for no more than 20 percent ownership, which is ostensibly low for a guy who leads the league in targets, has double-digit TDs, and isn’t priced as the slate’s WR1.
This fact might say everything about Evans right now: He’s a distant third in DK and FD median projections — but he handily has the position’s highest ceiling projections.
Nine Games Going on 10
The first month of the season, people were flipping out about OBJ because of his TD drought. For the nine games since then, OBJ has been the fantasy WR1:
Phrased differently:
There’s some debate about the degree to which OBJ will be challenged in this game. The Giants are four-point home favorites implied to score 22.25 points against the Lions, whose defense is 30th in pass DVOA. OBJ has done fairly well in his career as a home favorite against non-divisional opponents, averaging 23.97 DK and 19.05 FD PPG and meeting salary-based expectations with 66.7 percent Consistency.
At the same time, Beckham is expected to run most of his routes against CB Darius Slay, who has a very good 87.4 PFF coverage grade. As noted by Proctor, Slay has allowed only 71 total receiving yards since returning from injury four games ago. Additionally . . .
The projected pace of this game is a concern as well: The Lions are playing at the third-slowest pace in the NFL. Beckham faces a very difficult matchup and projects for volume concerns against the slow-paced Lions.
Even with these concerns — which are legitimate — OBJ has top-three median and ceiling DK and FD projections in our Models.
Adam Levitan really doesn’t like Beckham. Every week on the NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast he talks about how he can’t stand OBJ. On this week’s show, Levitanimal said something about how it seems like Beckham is bailed out a lot by long TDs.
Let’s say that’s true. What’s wrong with that? When Randy Moss back in the day had a mediocre game that was saved by a long TD, did people complain about it? When Antonio gets a TD on only a handful of receptions, do people talk about how he’s unreliable?
OBJ is one TD away from opening his career with three straight 1,000-10 campaigns.
When a top-three fantasy WR is third in the NFL in targets and capable of torching secondaries like this . . .
. . . we should expect him to ‘save’ some games with TDs.
That said . . . we’re expecting OBJ to be popular with 21-25 percent projected ownership. Being underweight on him isn’t a bad idea.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go . . .
. . . by the way, I’m going to kick this section old school: Short and sweet.
Jordy Nelson ($7,000 DK, $8,600 FD) and Davante Adams ($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD): Nelson leads the NFL with 14 targets inside the 10-yard line and 12 TDs receiving. Adams is in a four-way tie for ninth with eight targets inside the 10 and a two-way for fifth (with OBJ) with nine receiving TDs. The yardage is nice, but those high-leverage targets matter more.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD) and J.J. Nelson ($3,900 DK, $5,000 FD): Since Week 6, Fitz has 10.38 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 66.5 yards per game — but no TDs. On the season, he’s tied for third in the league with 11 targets inside the 10. We’re projecting J.J. to be owned above 20 percent in GPPs. That’s what happens when a guy scores five TDs in six games and the guy ahead of him on the depth chart gets cut.
Taylor Gabriel ($5,600 DK, $5,800 FD) and Aldrick Robinson ($3,400 DK, $4,500 FD): With Julio out, one of these guys has a good chance of scoring a TD.
Tyreek Hill ($5,700 DK, $6,400 FD): Nine TDs in 14 games isn’t ‘variance.’ The Titans have allowed WR units to score league-high marks of 45.3 DK and 35.3 FD PPG this year.
Rishard Matthews ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD): It’s great that outside linebacker Justin Houston is expected to play this weekend for the Chiefs, but they’ve still allowed 42.6 DK and 33.3 FD PPG to WR units this year.
Emmanuel Sanders ($6,600 DK, $6,600 FD) and Demaryius Thomas ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD): Sanders leads the Broncos with 128 targets, and he’s tied for third in the NFL with 11 targets inside the 10-yard line. Thomas is tied for 11th in the NFL with 119 targets. The Patriots are second in rush DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.
The Super Models
Here are the WRs currently at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Stefon Diggs: $6,200 DK, $6,300 FD
• Jamison Crowder: $5,400 DK, $6,100 FD
• Pierre Garcon: $4,700 DK, $5,400 FD
• Kenny Britt: $4,600 DK, $6,300 FD
• Allen Robinson: $4,400 DK, $6,300 FD
Bang a gong.
Efficiency in Action
Diggs is 21st in the NFL with 101 targets, but he’s tied with T.Y. Hilton for eighth with 78 receptions. That’s impressive. Diggs doesn’t get much out of these receptions — he has only 861 yards and two TDs whereas Hilton has 1,203 yards and six TDs — but that Diggs has essentially turned himself into Jarvis Landry (79-923-2) in two fewer games is notable.
The problem is that Diggs (knee) is dealing with an injury that caused him to miss Week 12, and he had only 12 targets total in Weeks 13-14. Diggs is rosterable at a value — he’s the highest-rated FD WR in the Bales Model — and he’s in a good situation, as the Vikings are four-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Colts, who are 26th in pass DVOA, but he’s a risky option because of his uncertain health and status for Week 15.
Two’s Company
DeSean Jackson ($5,500 DK, $6,000 FD) gets the attention and is the ostensible No. 1 WR, but his fellow WRs have actually been the superior DK and FD assets since QB Kirk Cousins became the starter last year:
The Redskins are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.5 points against the Panthers, who are allowing WR units to score 40.3 DK and 32.6 FD PPG — the fifth-highest totals in the league.
Of the three WRs, Crowder and Garcon have the best matchups. In fact, Crowder has one of the best matchups in the entire slate, as he’s expected to run most of his routes in the slot against CB Leonard Johnson, who has an awful PFF coverage grade of 42.4 and gets abused more than crystal meth.
With the matchup, Crowder is the highest-rated FD WR in the CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. For good measure, he’s also the highest-rated DK WR in the Sports Geek Model.
Not to be outdone, Garcon is the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model. Garcon has a favorable matchup against Daryl Worley, whose 70.6 PFF coverage grade is on the lower end of average.
If you’re looking for a reason to play in the prime time slate, these guys are giving it to you.
“Goff” Rhymes With “Cough”
Despite playing the last four games with the rookie QB who killed Jeff Fisher’s quest for loss No. 166, Britt has still basically been his 2016 self:
Over the last four games, Britt leads the Rams with 26.32 percent of the team’s targets and has more opportunities inside the 10-yard line than RB Todd Gurley:
The Rams are 15-point underdogs implied to score only 12 points against the Seahawks, who are 10th in pass DVOA. It’s not a good matchup for Britt — but he’s done well as a road dog this year . . .
. . . and in Week 2 Britt managed to turn 10 targets into a 6-94-0 stat line against the Seattle secondary — before safety Earl Thomas‘ injury.
Britt is the highest-rated DK WR in the CSURAM88 Model.
Willie Nelson
Robinson is the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales Model, primarily because he’s $500 cheaper than he’s been at any other point since last season:
So he’s discounted (he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating) — and he’s on the road again, where last year he was an underdog DK GOAT:
This year, though, he’s been horrendous as a road dog:
Also, he’s expected to run most of his routes against Texans CB A.J. Bouye, who’s PFF’s No. 3 cover CB . . .
. . . so it could be a decent situation for A-Rob if he reverts back to his 2015 ways — but right now it looks pretty sh*tty.
Of course, A-Rob needs to score only 9.19 DK points to reach his salary-based expectations. This year, he’s averaging 12.45 DK points . . . and he’s tied for fifth with nine targets inside the 10-yard line.
That’s not sexy, but that’s an edge.
The Coda
Even though he’s had to put up with Donte Moncrief intermittently stealing TDs, T.Y. Hilton ($7,200 DK, $7,300 FD) is a top-six fantasy WR on the season. We’re fully aware of his upside, as he has top-three ceiling projections for the position. With Moncrief (hamstring) out, Hilton should be heavily targeted.
At the same time, Hilton could struggle in this game. The Colts are four-point road underdogs implied to score only 20.75 points against the Vikings, who are second in pass DVOA and holding WR units to 29.5 DK and 23.3 FD PPG — the second-lowest totals in the league.
Hilton’s averaging 9.8 targets per game, and he is expected to avoid stud CBs Terence Newman and Xavier Rhodes by running most of his routes in the slot against the Vikings’ weakest starting CB, Captain Munnerlyn — so it’s not as if Hilton is in a hopeless situation. But Munnerlyn, with a 77.9 PFF coverage grade, isn’t actually a bad CB. He’s just not as good as the Vikings’ outside CBs.
But here’s the real issue: Hilton has negative home/road, favorite/dog, and division/non-division splits. When all of those exploding stars have aligned, Hilton’s been the worst version of himself:
No, thank you.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
