The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Week 15 Running Backs
“This is a rebellion, isn’t it? I rebel.”
— Jyn Erso
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s RB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 11:03.
Moving on . . .
RB Pricing
As I’ve highlighted previously in the RB Breakdown, RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
The average Bargain Rating for the four DK RBs with the highest salaries is literally zero percent — just as it was last week. On FD, only one RB has a Bargain Rating less than 10 percent.
For the entire slate on both DK and FD, the three players who are most expensive are RBs. They collectively cost $28,800 on DK. On FD, they’re collectively $600 cheaper — even though FD has $10,000 more cap space.
The pricing disparity between the two sites is ridiculous, and it’s getting harder to find DK values: In Week 4, Carlos Hyde had a 98 percent Bargain Rating; this week, 10 percent — which is the highest mark among the top-10 RBs in salary.
You can still find some comparative value on DK, but it’s not easy.
The Big Seven
This week, the seven RBs with the most expensive salaries in the slate are unsurprisingly also the guys with the most points per game (PPG) on the season plus one more top-12 fantasy RB who happens to be facing the 49ers. The Big Seven is a formidable bunch. Per our Trends tool:
Note the higher Plus/Minus and Consistency on FD as well as the lower ownership. That’s not a coincidence. Remember that RBs are cheaper on FD than DK, and we see it in the Big Seven’s production.
We’re at that part of the season where hierarchies and salaries are crystallizing. Not only do we have a clear top tier of seven RBs, but they’re priced in the same order on both sites (with one exception):
• David Johnson: $10,100 DK, $9,800 FD
• Le’Veon Bell: $9,800 DK, $9,400 FD
• LeSean McCoy: $8,900 DK, $9,000 FD
• Ezekiel Elliott: $8,200 DK, $8,500 FD
• DeMarco Murray: $6,900 DK (RB5), $7,400 FD (RB7)
• Devonta Freeman: $6,700 DK, $7,700 FD
• Melvin Gordon: $6,500 DK (RB7), $8,000 FD (RB7)
Here are a few points about these guys:
- The salary range covered by these guys is enormous. This isn’t just one tier. Johnson’s a tier unto himself. The same is true of Bell. The pricing difference between McCoy at RB3 and Murray/Gordon at RB5 is massive.
- With the exception of Freeman, they are all workhorses who in any game have a good chance of getting 20 touches. They’re valuable because of their high expected volume.
- They all have good pass-catching skills.
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
The Big Johnson
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Johnson was the first RB mentioned as a ‘chalk lock.’ The biggest decision of the week is whether to roster DJ in cash games.
After Bell’s massive Week 14 performance, Johnson is ‘merely’ the RB2 in PPG and Plus/Minus:
Even after his relatively disappointing game last week — in which he had 20 carries and eight targets (just to put that ‘disappointment’ in perspective) — Johnson is now tied with the RB salary records in our database, which are $10,100 DK and $9,800 FD:
As you can see, as players have approached the salary range in which Johnson now finds himself, they’ve tended to underperform their salary-based expectations. Given where he’s priced, Johnson carries a lot of risk: He’s playing on a 5-7-1 team that has nine other NFC franchises ahead of it in the playoff race. He has almost nothing left to play for at this point.
The Cardinals are 2.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26.5 points, so Johnson’s in a good spot. The Cardinals are hosting the Saints, who are allowing RB units to score 26.4 DK and 23.3 FD PPG — the seventh- and sixth-highest marks in the league.
It’s hard to overstate just how dominant Johnson has been this season. He’s getting all the production on the Cardinals. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, over the last four games Johnson leads the team with 78.49 percent of the rushes . . .
. . . and 26.75 percent of the targets:
That receiving workload is unbelievable and should especially come in handy in this game: The Saints are dead last against RBs in the passing game, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Johnson easily leads the team with seven rushes and four targets inside the 10-yard line over the last four games. All of his teammates have combined for 11 such opportunities in the same time span — eight if we remove wide receiver Michael Floyd, who’s no longer with the Cardinals. Of course, that makes sense: We’re talking about a guy who has 28 career touchdowns in 29 games, even though he’s started only 18 contests.
Per Player Profiler, Johnson leads the league with 88 evaded tackles, which isn’t surprising given that he leads the NFL with 1,850 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.
Despite his elevated salary, we’re expecting Johnson to be chalky. He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 25-30 percent. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
One more note: Johnson doesn’t have the slate’s highest median projections at the position — those belong to Bell — but he does have the highest floor projections.
If he were a Doors song, he’d be “The Crystal Ship.” He’s the highest-rated RB in the Levitan Model on FD, where he’s third at the position with 14 Pro Trends.
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
Here’s what I said last week about Bell:
It’s hard to imagine a world in which over the last four weeks Le’Veon could . . .
- Have 31.23 DK and 25.35 FD PPG on 100 percent Consistency
- Touch the ball 31 times per game
- Accumulate 164.75 scrimmage yards per game
- Accrue a league-high 91.51 percent of team rushes as well as 22.3 percent of team targets
- See nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line and average one TD per game
. . . and not be the RB1 in that span.
It’s DJ’s world in which Le’Veon lives.
Not anymore. After balling out with a 298-yard, three-TD performance last week, Le’Veon is now the RB1 with 28.66 DK and 23.71 FD PPG on 90 percent Consistency.
Scoreless in his first five games of the season, Le’Veon’s been a beast since then. Per RotoViz:
And it’s not as if he was trash in the first five games, either.
This week, Bell leads the position with nine DK Pro Trends. Like Johnson, he’s projected for 26-30 percent DK and FD ownership. Unlike DJ, Le’Veon doesn’t have the most expensive RB salaries in the entirety of our database.
The Steelers are three-point road favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Bengals, who are 23rd in rush DVOA. Unlike quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and wide receiver Antonio Brown, Bell doesn’t have horrendous home/road splits. In fact, since emerging as one of the league’s best backs three years ago . . .
. . . Bell has been at his absolute best as a road favorite: See 2016, Week 14.
If you want an elite RB but don’t want to pay all the way up for DJ, Le’Veown him. (Hopefully readers paid attention to that same piece of guidance last week.)
May I Have Your Attention Please?
When McCoy isn’t sabotaging us with hamstring and thumb injuries, he’s doing pretty well:
In this 10-game sample, McCoy has been a total workhorse, averaging 22.1 opportunities per game. Per RotoViz:
The Bills are 10.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Browns, who are dead last in rush DVOA and allowing RB units to score 28.5 DK and 25.5 FD PPG — the third- and second-highest marks in the league.
Even if frakking Mike Gillislee ($4,600 DK, $5,000 FD) manages to steal some TD opportunities inside the 10-yard line, which he’s done way too often over the last four games . . .
. . . McCoy should still do well. His ceiling projections aren’t elite — but they’re still in the top five, and he’s scored multiple TDs in three games this season. If you’re looking to get away from DJ and Bell . . .
. . . McCoy is a strong option. He leads the slate with 15 Pro Trends on FD, where he’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership.
And if you wanted to roster Gillislee as some sort of cheap goal-line Hail Mary . . . I guess. He has seven TDs in 12 games played and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. If the Bills have a big lead against the 0-13 Browns, it’s possible that they could ride Gillislee, who has four TDs in the last five games.
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
This week . . .
. . . I actually do love Helen of Troy.
Zeke was something of a disappointment last week, with ‘only’ 107 scrimmage yards — and no TDs or receptions — but Zeke should find redemption in Week 15.
The Cowboys are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26.75 points against the Buccaneers, who have an RB-friendly funnel defense that’s sixth in pass DVOA and 21st in rush DVOA. Additionally, the Bucs are 25th in pass DVOA against RBs.
In his young career, Zeke’s easily been at his best when not playing against division opponents . . .
. . . and he’s done well as a favorite when he hasn’t been facing a defense with a top-five rush DVOA:
Because of the pricing dynamics at RB, we’re projecting Zeke for only nine to 12 percent ownership — but he has the slate’s third-highest RB ceiling projection.
He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the CSURAM88 Model.
The Murracle
After rocking out for the first 10 weeks of the season . . .
. . . DeMarco has been less than his best self over the last month:
We’re expecting that the DFS population as a whole will hold that against DeMarco and roster him at only two to four percent in guaranteed prize pools. That’s a mistake.
In Weeks 11-12, DeMarco was playing through a foot injury, in Week 13 his foot healed over the bye, and in Week 14 he faced the league’s No. 1 defense, against which he still managed to turn 21 carries into 92 yards and a touchdown. None of that suggests that Murray isn’t still the player he was in Weeks 1-10. In fact, that he managed 85 scrimmage yards, 2.67 receptions, and 0.67 TDs per game under those circumstances suggests that he is the same player.
On top of that, Murray is significantly discounted. He’s now $1,300 DK and $1,100 FD cheaper than he was in Week 11. One word: Arbitrage.
The Titans are five-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Chiefs, who are 19th in rush DVOA. It’s not a great situation for Murray, but he’s still the RB4 in PPG this season. He’s averaging 111.1 scrimmage YPG on the strength of 19.2 carries and 4.3 targets per game. He has 12 scrimmage TDs (as well as a throwing score) in 13 games.
Murray is the highest-rated RB in the Bales Model on FD, where he has the position’s fourth-highest ceiling projection priced as the RB7.
It’s Not You, It’s Them — But It’s Also You
Some fantasy players act as if Freeman has been monstrously disappointing this year. Here are a couple of points to keep in mind:
- He’s still pacing to finish the year with over 1,375 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs. In today’s NFL, that’s about as much as anyone can ask of a RB.
- Freeman’s offensive coordinator is Kyle son of Michael. Anytime a Shanahan is in charge of an offense and has multiple healthy and talented RBs at his disposal, the odds are not insignificant that multiple RBs will be used.
- None of that matters this week, because the Falcons are 14-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 32.75 points against the 49ers, who are allowing RB units to score absurd league-high totals of 34.4 DK and 30.0 FD PPG.
Take a look at this:
Those are the 15 RBs who have accumulated double-digit rushes against the 49ers this season. They’ve balled the f*ck out.
You’ll notice the presence of some No. 2 RBs on the list. In some weeks, two RBs on a team doubled up on the 49ers. In other weeks, the lead RBs suffered injuries during the game, and the backups benefited. That means that Tevin Coleman ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD) is in play. Given that he’s averaging 68.1 scrimmage yards and 0.9 TDs on 8.7 carries and 3.1 targets per game, he’s a legit option for GPPs.
Coleman will steal touches from Freeman, which limits Freeman’s upside — but Freeman still has a top-six ceiling projection on both sites, and Coleman’s ceiling is in the top 15. Freeman and Coleman are projected for 17-20 and 13-16 percent ownership. If they were rostered together . . . they could probably provide some unique GPP lineups without sacrificing too much upside at RB — especially in a game in which WR Julio Jones (toe) seems highly unlikely to play a large role.
Freeman is first and second at the position with 15 DK and eight FD Pro Trends. He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the Sports Geek Model.
“Con te partirò”
Sorry, MG3. It’s time to say goodbye:
Gordon (hip, knee) is out this week, and he could miss the rest of the season, as the 5-8 soon-to-be Los Angeles Chargers really have no reason to play out these final few games.
With Gordon out, undrafted rookie RB Kenneth Farrow ($4,400 DK, $6,000 FD) is expected to lead the backfield. Who is Farrow?
- He’s the highest-rated RB in the Levitan Model on DK, where he has the 10th-highest ceiling projection.
- He’s the poor man’s Carlos Hyde, whose offensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2012-13 was Tom Herman, who was Farrow’s head coach at Houston in 2015. How Herman used him is very similar to how he used Hyde. At the 2014 combine, Hyde ran a 4.66-second 40-yard dash at 6’0″ and 230 lbs. At his pro day, Farrow ran a 4.59-second 40-yard dash at 5’10” and 219 lbs. He’s basically a smaller Hyde who’s almost certainly not as good at football but is probably more athletic: He was more explosive in his jumps, and he displayed near-elite agility in his shuttles for his size. Hyde’s not a great player. He’s just a competent RB with great size. That’s basically what Farrow is — except with less competence and size.
- Phrased differently: He’s Fat Rob -$4oo DK/+$100 FD.
- He’s almost certainly not Matt Asiata, who was never a lead back at a Division I college. In his final two years at Houston, Farrow had over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs in each season. At the 2011 combine, Asiata ran (literally) a 4.87-second 40-yard dash at 5’10” and 229 lbs., and he embarrassed the universe in his other drills. Per Player Profiler, Asiata has a 17th percentile SPARQ-x score. Farrow’s in the 83rd percentile. Asiata’s a weightlifter pretending to be a fullback pretending to be a backup/goal-line RB. Farrow’s an actual RB. On the Flex pod, Peter Jennings and I disagreed on Farrow. I compared him to Hyde. Pete compared him to Asiata. On the one hand, it’s a d*ck move to lay out my case here without giving the GOAT CSURAM the chance to respond. On the other hand, I wasn’t going to bog down the pod by talking about the subtleties of the Farrow-Hyde-Asiata comparisons. By the way, this is the first time I’ve ever disagreed with Pete publicly. If I’m not writing this piece next week, we’ll all know why.
The Chargers are three-point home underdogs implied to score 23 points against the Raiders, who are allowing RBs to score 25.7 DK and 22.6 FD PPG — the ninth-highest totals in the league.
Farrow is backed up by Ronnie Hillman ($3,000 DK, $4,600 FD), who is small and yet to play a snap for the Chargers and whom the RB-needy Broncos decided they could do without shortly before the season started.
To quote Levitanimal: “LETS GOGOGOGOGO.”
Farrow’s projected for 13-16 percent DK ownership.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Kenneth Dixon ($3,800 DK, $5,100 FD): He’s cheap, and he’s coming off an 11-carry, 11-target game. He leads the Ravens with 45.57 percent of the team’s carries over the last four weeks, and he’s fourth on the team with 12.05 percent of the targets. Dixon’s in a good spot, as the Ravens are 5.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Eagles, who are 21st against RBs in pass DVOA.
We’re projecting him to be inordinately chalky with 26-30 percent DK ownership. If you’re going to roster only one Kenneth . . . it’s OK if he’s Dixon.
Frank Gore ($4,400 DK, $5,900 FD): The Colts are four-point road underdogs implied to score 20.5 points against the Vikings, who have something of a funnel defense that’s ranked second in pass DVOA and 14th in rush DVOA.
I pretty much despise the vampire-like DFS existence of Gore, but he’s been playable as a road underdog since joining the Colts two years ago:
It helps that Gore is still competent as a receiver.
Jordan Howard ($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD): Over the last four games, Howard leads the Bears with 76.92 percent of the team’s total carries and also with six opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Whenever Howard has gotten double-digit carries . . .
. . . he’s been good.
The Bears are 5.5-point home underdogs implied to score only 17.5 points against the Packers, who are ninth in rush DVOA — but Howard’s still going to get his touches.
Rob Kelley ($4,700 DK, $5,900 FD): Fat Rob has done admirably as the Redskins’ lead back, earning 75.56 percent of the team’s rush attempts over the last four games.
The Redskins are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.5 points against the Panthers, who are eighth in rush DVOA — but Fat Rob has five TDs in his six games as the starter. If the Redskins score at least three TDs, there’s a good chance that at least one of them will belong to him.
Jeremy Hill ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): The last three weeks without Giovani Bernard . . .
. . . Hill has taken on significantly more of the Bengals’ RB workload: He’s seeing 6.5 more carries and 3.03 more targets per game.
The Bengals are three-point home underdogs implied to score only 20.5 points against the divisional rival Steelers, who are 10th in rush DVOA. On the one hand, all of that sucks for Hill.
On the other hand, he’s a big-bodied mid-tier lead back getting over 20 opportunities per game — and he’s the only RB on the roster with an opportunity inside the 10-yard line over the last four weeks:
We’re projecting him for five to eight percent ownership.
Spencer Ware ($5,700 DK, $6,700 FD): The Chiefs are five-point home favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Titans. Ware hasn’t been horrible as a home favorite this year:
At the same time, the Titans are allowing RB units to score only 19.3 DK and 16.9 FD PPG — the second- and fifth-lowest totals in the league.
T.J. Yeldon ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD): RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) is expected to be active for Week 15 after sitting out Weeks 13-14. (Monitor his status via the FantasyLabs News feed.) In the four games Ivory has missed this season, Yeldon has been horrible yet playable:
We’re projecting Yeldon to have less than five percent ownership. Even if Ivory is active, he might not be a large part of the game plan.
Thomas Rawls ($5,900 DK, $6,400 FD): Rawls has the Seattle job all to himself, and that’s great, but he should be super chalky in Thursday contests, as the Seahawks are 15.5-point home favorites implied to score 27.25 points against the hapless Jeff Fisher-less Rams. Rawls will probably ball out in this game, but it’s possible . . .
. . . that Rawls’ Week 13 performance was an outlier.
Some caution is warranted.
Latavius Murray ($5,800 DK, $6,800 FD): The Raiders are three-point road favorites implied to score 26 points against the division rival Chargers. Latavius has 12 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games:
Do you think there’s a chance that the Raiders get inside the 10-yard line in this game?
Jonathan Stewart ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD): The Panthers are 6.5-point road underdogs implied to score 22 points against the Redskins, who are allowing RB units to score 27.6 DK and 24.2 FD PPG — the league’s fourth-highest marks. Stewie is the only Panther besides QB Cam Newton with a carry inside the 10-yard line over the last four games:
J-Stew’s not a bad option for the prime time slate.
Dwayne Washington ($3,500 DK, $5,000 FD) and Bilal Powell ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Theo Riddick (wrist) was out last week and might miss this week. Zach Zenner (concussion) is still in the league’s protocol. Matt Forte (knee) is expected to be a game-time decision for Week 14. Both Washington and Powell are on the cusp of being the only active functional RBs on their teams.
Carlos Hyde ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD) and Shaun Draughn ($3,000 DK, $4,700 FD): The 49ers are 14-point road underdogs implied to score 18.75 points against the Falcons, who are 28th in rush DVOA and allowing RB units to score 29.3 DK and 24.9 FD PPG — the second- and third-highest marks in the league.
Note that the Falcons easily lead the NFL with 122 targets, 97 receptions, 801 yards, and five TDs allowed to RBs in the passing game. Draughn is a real option.
LeGarrette Blount ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD), Dion Lewis ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD), and James White ($3,600 DK, $4,500 FD): The Patriots are three-point road favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Broncos, whose No. 1 defense flows to the running game like so:
The Broncos are first in pass DVOA — but 25th in rush DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA against RBs.
Blount leads the league with 14 TDs rushing, and Lewis and White have combined for 41 targets over the last four games.
They’ll all have opportunities.
The Super Models
This week, we (currently) have two non-Big Seven-ish RBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Lamar Miller: $5,400 DK, $7,200 FD
• Matt Asiata: $3,400 DK, $5,500 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
Sometimes It’s Simple
In general I’m not a fan of Miller, but the Texans are six-point home favorites implied to score 22.8 points against the Jaguars, who this year have been dominated by home (always favored) No. 1 RBs:
Miller (ankle) has been losing some work recently, perhaps because of his injury, but he’s been over the past month the guy he was for the first two months of the season:
As long as Miller gets the goal-line carries against the Jags, he should have the opportunity for a big game . . .
. . . and he’s gotten the clear majority of the RB work inside the 10-yard line over the last month.
Miller’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership on DK, where he’s the highest-rated RB in the Sports Geek Model.
LOL LMAO ROFL WTF
Let’s pretend that I didn’t bash Asiata 2,000 words ago, shall we? Let me tell you everything great about him!!!
Asiata has the slate’s second-highest DK Bargain Rating (87 percent) — and remember that it’s hard to find value on DK — and Asiata’s a big-bodied back with a locked-in goal-line role for a defense-oriented team with a sh*tty QB.
Asiata has only 30.68 percent of the Vikings’ carries over the last four games, but the carries he does get . . .
. . . tend to count for something.
We’re projecting him for zero to one percent ownership, and he’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Maybe Farrow is like Asiata.
‘Sup.
Adrian Peterson ($5,000 DK, $6,300) is back. Get ready to see a declining non-receiving two-down grinder who hasn’t played football in three months get at least 10 carries in a horrifyingly ineffective rushing offense. We think AD’s an upgrade on Asiata???
The Coda
He’s had a tough go of it recently, in part because his offensive line for a time was melting away like Voldemort’s skin after his final curse rebounds, like so . . .
. . . but Jay Ajayi ($5,700 DK, $6,900 FD) is still a guy with GPP-winning, multi-TD upside every week. Since becoming the lead RB in Week 5, Ajayi in the aggregate has been a stud:
His potential absolutely must be respected, regardless of his matchup.
Now then, let’s take a look at whom the Dolphins are playing . . .
. . . Jets, sixth in rush DVOA . . .
. . . never mind.
Kill the spare.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 15 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
