The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 14: Wide Receivers
“Marty, that was very interesting music.”
— Lorraine Baines
A Few More Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s WR Model Preview by Team FantasyLabs member Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 4:37.
Moving on . . .
WR Pricing
As I’ve pointed out in the WR Breakdown previously, our Bargain Rating metric indicates that WRs are ridiculously expensive on DraftKings and historically cheap on FanDuel.
For instance, if you look in the Player Models, you’ll see that only one of the 12 highest DK WR salaries belongs to a player with a Bargain Rating of at least 10 percent. On FD, only two WRs in the entire slate have Bargain Ratings lower than 10 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that seven of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs. DK really values its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only four of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs.
The top WR costs $8,900 on both sites — even though FD’s salary cap is $10,000 higher than DK’s. There’s a disparity in WR pricing, and it’s significant. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big Four
This week, we have a clear top tier of four WRs at the top of the salary scale on both sites. It’s the same group we had last week. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values might not look all that impressive, but at a position as volatile as WR those numbers are good, especially when you take into account the raw points per game (PPG) and also the Consistency.
Here they are:
• Mike Evans: $8,900 DK (WR1), $8,900 FD (WR1)
• Antonio Brown: $8,700 DK (WR2), $8,800 FD (WR2)
• Julio Jones: $8,500 DK (WR3), $8,300 FD (WR4)
• Odell Beckham: $8,000 DK (WR4), $8,500 FD (WR3)
Here are a few points about these guys:
- They are within a fairly tight salary range. In many cases you should be able to pivot from one WR to another if you want to do so.
- The gap between these WRs and the WR5 is $500. Moving up to this tier from a cheaper WR isn’t easy.
- They are the four WRs with the most PPG on the season — with the exception of A.J. Green ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD), who is technically in the slate but expected not to play (per the FantasyLabs News feed).
Let’s shred this secondary.
231 Pounds of 6’5″ Bad-Assery
Last week, Evans had his worst performance of the season, turning six targets into three receptions and 38 yards. He also chipped in a two-point conversion, just to troll people watching NFL RedZone.
“Was that a TD?!”
No, f*ckhead, it wasn’t.
This week, Evans is the most expensive WR on the board, because the No. 1 rule of running a restaurant is that if you’re going to provide bad service to your customers then you might as well overcharge them too.
If not for Evans’ bed-wetting performance last week, his ownership this week likely would’ve been higher. As it is, he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13-16 and 17-20 percent on DK and FD. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 26.75 points. Evans looks like he’s in a good spot — but it’s not as good as it seems. Throughout his career, Evans has been better on the road than at home . . .
. . . and as an underdog than a favorite:
Add in the fact that Evans has been favored only at home, and you get a sample that’s significant:
Of course, it’s not all blood red for Evans, who’s playing against the Saints, who defensively are 26th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and allowing WR units to score 39.9 DK and 31.4 FD PPG. (For reference: The Chiefs allow the most production to WRs at 44.8 DK and 35.1 FD PPG.)
Per our Matchups tool, Evans is likely to run most of his routes against cornerback Delvin Breaux, who theoretically is the No. 1 CB for the Saints but in actuality has a horrible Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 41.6, which makes his matchup with Evans PFF’s most advantageous WR/CB pairing of the week. As noted by John Proctor in his WR/CB Matchups, this matchup is a big upgrade from the one he had last week.
In a really twisted way, basically the only thing to dislike about Evans is that he’s a home favorite. He leads the NFL with 11.5 targets per game. He is tied for second with 0.83 TDs per game and is fourth with 88.2 yards per game (YPG). Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Evans leads the Bucs with 239 offensive snaps and 27.13 percent of the team targets over the last four weeks:
To put a bow on this: Evans is in a good spot, which is reflected in his position-high median projection. He’s also riskier than he might seem. He currently has ‘only’ the 10th- and sixth-highest floor projections on DK and FD.
Antonio Is Only as Good as His Road Favorite QB
Brown might be the best WR in the NFL, but when the Steelers are road favorites QB Ben Roethlisberger turns into a liability:
What this means is that, when the Steelers are favored, Antonio is also much worse on the road than at home:
As you may have surmised, the Steelers are road favorites this week. They’re giving two points to the Bills and implied to score 24.5 points.
In no way do Antonio’s home/road splits mean that he should automatically be faded: He’s facing a Bills defense that is 21st in pass DVOA, and he’s expected to run most of his routes against CB Stephon Gilmore, who is imminently beatable with a slightly below-average 69.7 PFF coverage grade. In almost any circumstances, AB has a legitimate chance to be a slate’s WR1
But here’s the question: Is it wise to pay up for a guy with 21-25 percent projected ownership when (based on his past history) his ceiling is lower and his odds of hitting that ceiling are reduced?
I can’t answer that question for you.
The Man With the Moustache — and the Turf Toe
Last week, Julio got nine targets, which he turned into a 7-113-0 stat line. Julio also got turf toe. He’s expected to play this week, but his status is uncertain, and he’ll likely be limited if he does play. As a result, we’re projecting Julio to have low ownership — which does make him moderately intriguing.
Julio leads the NFL with 32.82 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games . . .
. . . and he leads the NFL with 104.4 yards per game — but that turf toe . . .
With the exception of his injury, Julio is in a great spot. The high-scoring Falcons are six-point road favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Rams.
First of all, with Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator, Julio has done well as a road favorite (in a small sample):
Secondly, the Rams are allowing WR units to score 42.0 DK and 32.7 FD PPG — the third- and fifth-highest marks in the league. Even with reported shadow coverage by Rams CB Trumaine Johnson, a healthy Julio would be capable of giving this secondary a tour of LA.
But Julio’s not healthy, which means his ability to earn targets will be uncertain if he plays — and when he hasn’t at least approached double-digit targets this year he hasn’t done well:
You know what they say:
It hurts so good.
Eight Games Going on Nine
The first month of the season, people were flipping out about OBJ. For the eight games since then, OBJ has been the fantasy WR1 with 22.15 DK and 17.96 FD PPG:
Phrased differently:
And — hot d*mn! — OBJ is in a great spot this week: The Giants are three-point home underdogs implied to score 22.25 points against the division rival Cowboys.
Would it surprise you to learn that thoughout his career OBJ has played better at home than on the road? — and at home he’s played better as an underdog than a favorite?
And what about the couple of times that the Giants have played as home dogs against divisional rivals?
OBJ burns secondaries like this:
I believe that the Cowboys remember — and would like to forget — one of those games.
Adam Levitan really doesn’t like Beckham. Every week on the NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast he talks about how he can’t stand OBJ. On this week’s show, even the Levitanimal said something about liking Beckham. It was a podcast first.
Ironically enough, OBJ is the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Golden Tate ($6,600 DK, $6,300 FD): He’s projected for chalky 17-20 and 26-30 percent DK and FD ownership — but his floor, median, and ceiling projections are far lower than those of any WR with comparable projected ownership.
Just sayin’.
Willie Snead ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD): Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks are also options, but Snead is the cheapest, he by far has the lowest ownership projections, and he easily has the best matchup of the trio, expected to run most of his routes in the slot against CB Vernon Hargreaves III, who has a horrible PFF coverage grade of 50.9 . . . and little NFL experience playing in the slot.
Amari Cooper ($7,500 DK, $7,400 FD) and Michael Crabtree ($6,200 DK, $6,200 FD): The Raiders are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.25 points against the Chiefs — but the Chiefs allow league-high marks of 44.8 DK and 35.1 FD PPG to WR units, and C&C have been at their best over the last two years as road underdogs:
If you’re looking for some Thursday action, here it is.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,100 DK, $6,800 FD): I don’t even care who the opponent is. Some small Fitz GPP exposure is compulsory:
Since Week 6, Fitz has gotten his targets, receptions, and yards — but not one TD. At some point, the fantasy gawds will rectify this oversight of fate.
Jordy Nelson ($6,800 DK, $7,100 FD), Davante Adams ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD), and Randall Cobb ($5,000 DK, $6,000 FD): The Packers are 2.5-point home underdogs implied to score only 22 points against the Seahawks, who are sixth in pass DVOA.
So all of that sucks.
But not one of these guys is projected to have ownership above five percent, and the Seahawks have actually allowed reasonable production to WR units this year: 35.9 DK and 28.6 FD PPG.
The odds are that these guys will struggle, but there’s also an underappreciated chance that one of these guys ends the night with a 100-1 stat line.
The Super Models
Here are the non-OBJ WRs currently at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Emmanuel Sanders: $5,700 DK, $5,900 FD
• Marqise Lee: $3,700 DK, $5,400 FD
• Robby Anderson: $3,000 DK, $4,700 FD
Bang a gong.
The Denver WR1
The Broncos are implied to score 21.75 points on the road in a pick’em against the Titans. Even with the lackluster team total, the Broncos WRs are still in a good spot: The Titans allow the second-most fantasy points to WR units: 43.7 DK and 34.4 FD PPG.
Some people assume that Demaryius Thomas is Denver’s No. 1 WR — and he probably is — but over the last three years Sanders has been the superior DFS play . . .
. . . and this year Manny’s besting Demaryius in both raw PPG and Plus/Minus:
Although Sanders and Demaryius have exactly the same FD median projection (12.3 points), Sanders has the higher ceiling despite being $1,000 cheaper. Of the two, Sanders also has the superior Bargain Rating (96 percent) on FD, where he ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated WR in all of our Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek.
Sanders is projected for 13-16 percent ownership.
The Quickest Blurb Ever
Marqise Lee is the highest-rated DK WR in the CSURAM88 Model. Here’s why:
You’re welcome.
Maybe (Not)?
An undrafted rookie with elite height and speed, Anderson is the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales and Sports Geek Models because he’s the stone minimum, he has one of the slate’s highest Bargain Ratings, and he’s played a lot of snaps over the last four weeks:
In fact, Anderson has been a consistent (even if uninspiring) DK play since Week 6:
Of course, last week Anderson ‘exploded’ (for him), turning 12 targets into a 4-61-1 stat line, so his ownership is likely to see a significant increase this week.
So two questions arise:
- Is it smart to roster a guy at five to eight percent projected ownership when he has only 6.5 targets per game over the last four contests and catches only 54.9 percent of his targets?
- Is it smart not to roster a guy who gets 6.5 targets per game and is facing the 49ers, who are 28th in pass DVOA and allowing WR units to score 40.7 DK and 33.3 FD PPG?
Maybe (not).
The Coda
Even though he has to put up with a teammate stealing TDs every game, T.Y. Hilton ($7,500 DK, $7,600 FD) is in an advantageous spot. The Colts are six-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Texans, who just released their former sh*tty starting slot CB and have now pretended to replace him with his backup, Kareem Jackson, who has a below-average PFF coverage grade of 63.7.
Hilton runs most of his routes out of the slot, and he tends to be at his best anyway when the Colts are home favorites:
Hilton has the slate’s third-highest DK and FD ceiling projections.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 14 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
