The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 14 Tight Ends
“This is the end.”
— Jim Morrison
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Jordan Reed ($5,900 DK, $7,500 FD): Reed (shoulder) is officially questionable and expects to play in Week 14 (per the FantasyLabs News feed). We’ll see. Even if he does play, he may be limited. As it is, the Eagles are third against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA) and allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position: 7.3 DraftKings and 6.0 FanDuel points per game (PPG).
Vernon Davis ($3,500 DK, $4,800 FD): Given the matchup, Davis doesn’t look attractive either.
Travis Kelce ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD): Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kelce leads the Chiefs with 28.15 percent of the team’s targets over the last four weeks:
Kelce’s likely to lose market share with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (groin) returning, but the Raiders are allowing 13.2 DK and 10.7 FD PPG to the position.
Will Tye ($2,800 DK, $4,500 FD): Tye is getting all the TE snaps in New York . . .
. . . and he’s facing the Cowboys, who are 30th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing 14.9 DK and 11.7 FD PPG to the position.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD): CJF has at least five targets in nine straight games and is a consistent contributor in the Texans offense. Per RotoViz:
That’s a lot of per-game yardage for a guy who three months ago was just some random blocker. Per our Trends tool:
This week, CJF is facing the Colts, who are dead last in pass DVOA against TEs.
Ladarius Green ($3,900 DK, $5,800 FD): Green is still playing fewer snaps than teammate Jesse James, but Green is getting the targets. Over the last four weeks Green is third on the Steelers with 14.39 percent of the targets even though he’s still working his way back into the offense — and last week Green broke out, turning 11 targets into a 6/110/1 receiving line.
The Steelers are facing the Bills, who are 26th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Zach Ertz ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD): Over the last five weeks, Ertz has emerged as a reliable contributor in the Eagles offense . . .
. . . and this week he’s facing the Redskins, who are 28th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing 16.2 DK and 12.3 FD PPG to the position.
Antonio Gates ($3,800 DK, $5,200 FD): Gates has five TDs on the season, is averaging 6.1 targets per game, and is incredibly cheap on FD, where he’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales Player Model . . . as well as as the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models. (Honestly, Gates is the highest-rated TE in one of our Pro Models almost every week.)
Gates is facing the Panthers, who are 22nd in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing them to score 16.6 DK and 14.0 FD PPG — the third-highest marks in the league.
Daniel Brown ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): The Da Vinci Code is bone nothing on both sites, and he’s facing the Lions, who are 29th in pass DVOA and allowing TEs to score 15.9 DK and 13.0 FD PPG — the sixth- and fifth-highest marks in the league.
Since last season, the Lions have allowed TEs to score 21 TDs in 28 games.
Eric Ebron ($3,800 DK, $6,000 FD): Ebron is cheap on DK, where he’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models. He’s facing the Bears, who are 25th in pass DVOA against TEs, and he’s projected for only . . . zero to one percent ownership. Shh. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
Delanie Walker ($4,400 DK, $6,200 FD) and Greg Olsen ($5,000 DK, $6,400 FD): Walker has three touchdowns and 23.81 percent of the Titans’ total targets over the last four weeks, and Olsen actually leads the Panthers with 97 targets, 61 receptions, and 820 yards — but they’re facing the Broncos and Chargers, who are fifth and ninth in pass DVOA against TEs.
For guys who aren’t cheap, they have some matchups that aren’t easy.
Cameron Brate ($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD): Brate is second only to wide receiver Mike Evans on the Buccaneers with 66 targets, 47 receptions, 528 yards, and six touchdowns — and he’s facing the Saints, who are 24th in pass DVOA.
Gary Barnidge ($3,300 DK, $4,500 FD): Just in case quarterback Robert Griffin III remembers that the tight end position exists in his first game back (since his first game back), Barnidge is cheap and playing against the Bengals, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position: 17.6 DK and 14.1 FD PPG.
Jimmy Graham ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD): The highest-rated FD TE in the Levitan Model for the second week in a row, Graham leads the slate with nine FD Pro Trends. Discounting his Week 1 warm-up in which he played limited snaps, Jimmy has been a good player, meeting his salary-based expectations a majority of the time and rarely punishing his teams with bad performances:
Graham is facing the Packers, who are allowing 15.7 DK and 12.4 FD PPG to the position.
Tyler Eifert ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): Oh, hellz yes. If we discount his Week 7 warm-up in which he played limited snaps, Eifert has basically been his old self since returning from injury:
With WR A.J. Green and pass-catching running back Giovani Bernard out, Eifert is likely to be heavily involved in the game plan.
He’s expensive — but he’s facing the Browns, who are 31st in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing league-high marks of 18.4 DK and 14.5 FD PPG to the position.
Eifert’s projected for 17-20 percent FD ownership, but on DK his ownership projection is only five to eight percent.
Yes. Yes. Yes.
The Coda
He may be old, but twice per year (always against the Giants) Jason Witten ($3,100 DK, $5,100 FD) reminds the world that he used to be a good TE. Per RotoViz:
Witten is the highest-rated DK TE in the Sports Geek Model.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 14 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
