The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Week 14: Running Backs
What kind of bird are you?
— Sam Shakusky
RB Pricing
As I’ve highlighted previously in the RB Breakdown, RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
The average Bargain Rating for the four DK RBs with the highest salaries is literally zero percent. On FD, there are only four RBs with Bargain Ratings less than 20 percent.
For the entire slate on both DK and RB, the two players who are most expensive are RBs. They collectively cost $18,800 on DK. On FD, they’re $18,700 — even though FD has $10,000 more cap space.
The pricing disparity between the two sites is ridiculous, and it’s getting harder to find DK values: Six weeks ago, LeGarrette Blount had a 90 percent Bargain Rating; this week, 22 percent — which is the second-highest mark among the top-18 RBs in salary.
You can still find some comparative value on DK, but it’s not easy.
The Big Eleven Six
I thought about giving you the Big Eleven, but I could tell that you weren’t ready for it.
This week, the six RBs with the most expensive salaries in the slate are unsurprisingly also the guys with the most points per game (PPG) on the season. The Big Six (in terms of pricing) is a formidable bunch. Per our Trends tool:
Note the higher Plus/Minus and Consistency on FD as well as the lower ownership. That’s not a coincidence. Remember that RBs right now are generally cheaper on FD than DK, and we see it in the Big Six’s production.
We’re at that part of the season where hierarchies and salaries are crystallizing. Not only do we have a clear top tier of six RBs, but they’re priced in the same order on both sites:
• David Johnson: $9,800 DK, $9,700 FD
• Le’Veon Bell: $9,000 DK, $9,000 FD
• Ezekiel Elliott: $8,400 DK, $8,500 FD
• LeSean McCoy: $8,200 DK, $8,300 FD
• Melvin Gordon: $7,400 DK, $8,200 FD
• DeMarco Murray: $7,000 DK, $7,900 FD
Here are a few points about these guys:
- The salary range covered by these guys is enormous. This isn’t just one tier. Johnson’s a tier unto himself. The same is true of Bell. On FD, the difference between Zeke and Murray isn’t insignificant; on DK, that difference is massive.
- They are all workhorses who in any game have a good chance of getting 20 touches. They’re valuable because of their high expected volume.
- They are all three-down workhorses with good pass-catching skills.
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
The Big Johnson
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Johnson was the first play mentioned as a ‘chalk lock’ by Aaron Jones (aejones), the winner of the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship.
Johnson is easily the current RB1 in PPG and Plus/Minus . . .
Johnson is d*mn near the RB salary records in our database, which are $10,100 DK and $9,800 FD:
As you can see, as players have approached the salary range in which Johnson now finds himself, they’ve tended to underperform their salary-based expectations. Given where he’s priced, Johnson carries a lot of risk.
The Cardinals are one-point underdogs with an implied Vegas total of only 21.25 points, so they’re not in a great spot, but they are playing against the Dolphins, who have something of a run-friendly funnel defense that is 13th against the pass but 22nd against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
It’s pretty hard to overstate just how dominant Johnson has been this season. He’s getting all the production on the Cardinals. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, over the last four games Johnson leads the team with 80.9 percent of the rushes . . .
. . . and 23.84 percent of the targets:
In the last four games alone, Johnson has 41 targets, which he’s turned int0 a 29-297-4 receiving stat line. That’s unbelievable. When he was a draft prospect and some people were saying that he should convert to wide receiver, tight end, or H-back, they were right. (It’s just that he should also be handed the ball 25 times per game.)
Johnson easily leads the team with eight rushes and five targets inside the 10-yard line over the last four games. All of his teammates have combined for eight such opportunities in the same time span. Of course, that makes sense: We’re talking about a guy who has 28 career touchdowns in 28 games, even though he’s started only 17 contests.
Per Player Profiler, Johnson leads the league with 84 evaded tackles, which isn’t surprising given that he leads the NFL with 1,709 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.
Despite his elevated salary, we’re expecting Johnson to be chalky. He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 21-25 percent. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
One more note: Johnson doesn’t have the slate’s highest median projections at the position — those belong to Bell — but he does have the highest ceiling projections.
If he were a Doors song, he’d be “The Crystal Ship.”
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
It’s hard to imagine a world in which over the last four weeks Le’Veon could . . .
- Have 31.23 DK and 25.35 FD PPG on 100 percent Consistency
- Touch the ball 31 times per game
- Accumulate 164.75 scrimmage YPG
- Accrue a league-high 91.51 percent of team rushes as well as 22.3 percent of team targets
- See nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line and average one TD per game
. . . and not be the RB1 in that span.
It’s DJ’s world in which Le’Veon lives.
That said, Bell is tied with Johnson at eight DK and 10 FD Pro Trends, and he’s also projected for 21-25 percent ownership. Unlike DJ, Le’Veon doesn’t have the most expensive RB salaries of the season.
The Steelers are two-point road favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Bills, who are 24th in rush DVOA. Unlike quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and wide receiver Antonio Brown, Bell doesn’t have horrendous home/road splits. In fact, since emerging as one of the league’s best backs three years ago, Bell has been very much on his game as a road favorite:
If you want an elite RB but don’t want to pay all the way up for DJ, Le’Veown him.
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
I love Helen of Troy, but . . .
. . . Zeke is dangerous.
He has six TDs in his last four games, but . . .
. . . he has only five carries inside the 10-yard line in those contests.
Additionally, in his four division games, Zeke has (relatively) been held in check:
Also, Zeke so far has been at his best when the Cowboys are underdogs:
The Cowboys are three-point road favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the division rival Giants, who are fifth in rush DVOA and pass DVOA against RBs.
It’s hard to suggest that Zeke is a risky play, considering that he . . .
- Leads the league with 107.1 rushing yards and 21.9 rushing attempts per game
- Catches a Le’Veon/DeMarco-esque 84.8 percent of his targets
- Is the workhorse runner for the only team in the NFL that runs more than it throws
. . . especially when he ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated FD RB in all four Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek.
In comparison to DJ and Bell, Zeke is a cheap upside RB, and he’s a fine pivot play at 17-20 percent projected ownership — but he’s still in a spot that’s less than ideal.
May I Have Your Attention Please?
When McCoy isn’t sabotaging us with hamstring and thumb injuries, he’s doing pretty well:
In this nine-game sample, McCoy has been a total workhorse, averaging 22.1 opportunities per game. Per RotoViz:
The Bills are two-point home underdogs implied to score only 22.5 points against the Steelers. The matchup and Vegas lines don’t seem great, but the Steelers are allowing RB units to score 27.6 DK and 23.5 FD PPG — the sixth-highest marks in the league — and McCoy has consistently been one of the best fantasy RBs this year despite being on a team that averages ‘only’ 25.4 PPG (ninth in the league).
McCoy should be fine in this matchup — as long as frakking Mike Gillislee ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD) doesn’t steal too many of his TD opportunities. McCoy has the lowest ceiling projections of the Big Six, and he’s scored multiple TDs in three games this season. He’s not the worst . . .
That’s a little GIFt from me to you.
McCoy leads the slate with eight DK and 12 FD Pro Trends.
Whatever
Even if you (read: I) think that MG3 is a near-talentless hack who feasts on the soft carbs of massive volume, you still have to appreciate him for what he is:
MG3 is second in the NFL with 20.9 rush attempts per game, and he has 56 targets in 12 games. Even though he’s scored only two TDs in his last four games, he’s still averaging one TD per game on the season. With 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line and 84.91 percent of his team’s rushes over the last four games, MG3 always has the chance to pile up some points — but he has a tough matchup.
The Chargers are 1.5-point road underdogs implied to score 23.25 points against the Panthers, whose funnel defense is sixth in rush DVOA but 18th in pass DVOA.
Nevertheless, MG3 will probably have a decent game even if he doesn’t have a high ceiling projection. On the season, he’s averaging 21.76 DK and 19.13 FD PPG. As a road underdog . . .
. . . he’s done basically the same thing. That’s what happens when a team gives a RB the ball incessantly regardless of context. His production smooths out.
Like McCoy, MG3 is a potential pivot play down from Johnson and Bell. Unlike McCoy, MG3 is projected for only five to eight and nine to 12 percent DK and FD ownership.
The Murracle
DeMarco (foot) played through an injury for the middle stretch of the season, but he’s now coming off the bye week and looks to be healthy, per the FantasyLabs News feed.
The bye week came at exactly the right time for Murray. He had perhaps his two worst games of the season right before getting Week 13 off . . .
. . . and the result is that Murray is now $1,200 DK and $600 FD cheaper than he was two games ago and projected to be owned at only two to four percent: Arbitrage.
Even with his recent dip in production, Murray is averaging 112.7 scrimmage YPG on the strength of 19.1 carries and 4.5 targets per game. He has 11 scrimmage TDs (as well as a throwing score) in 12 games.
And the matchup . . . OMG, the sneaky matchup. The Titans are implied to score only 21.75 points at home in a pick’em against the feared Broncos, who are holding teams to only 19.1 PPG. The Broncos certainly have a great defense — it’s first overall in total DVOA — but it’s now one of the biggest funnels in the league . . .
. . . ranking first in pass DVOA but 26th in rush DVOA (and 18th in pass DVOA against RBs).
This spot is deceptively advantageous for Murray, who has been his best at home:
Murray has risk in that, even though the Denver defense is weak against the run, it’s still the No. 1 defense in the NFL — but it’s possible that DeMarco could outscore at least three of the other Big Six RBs.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Mark Ingram ($5,300 DK, $7,100 FD) and Tim Hightower ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD): It’s annoying as f*ck that these two are in a timeshare, but whatever. This is the situation we’re in, and both of these guys have the potential to go off in this game . . .
. . . even Hightower:
The Saints are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score ‘only’ 24.25 points, which is low for the Saints. On the surface, this isn’t a great spot, especially since Ingram and Hightower are away from the Coors Field of daily fantasy football — but they’re playing against the Bucs, whose funnel defense is ninth in pass DVOA and 23rd in rush DVOA.
Also, after the catastrophe that was last game, neither of these guys is projected for higher than four percent ownership.
Spencer Ware ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD): Ware’s had an up-and-down campaign, but he’s been at his best with WR Jeremy Maclin in the lineup . . .
. . . and Maclin (groin) is expected to play on Thursday night after missing the last four weeks.
The Chiefs are three-point home favorites implied to score 24.25 points against the Raiders, who are 28th in rush DVOA. Ware’s averaging 18.95 DK and 16.45 FD PPG in four games this year as a home favorite. He has the sixth- and fifth-highest DK and FD RB ceiling projections.
Matt Forte ($6,800 DK, $7,700 FD) and Bilal Powell ($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD): The Jets are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21 points against the 49ers.
On the one hand, it’s a subpar situation for the Jets RBs because their implied total is low and Bryce Petty is starting at QB.
On the other hand, we’re projecting them for low ownership, and the 49ers are dead last in rush DVOA and allowing RB units to score league-high marks of 34.0 DK and 29.7 FD PPG.
Jordan Howard ($6,400 DK, $7,800 FD): The Bears are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 18 points against the Lions. Frankly, I think that’s too low. The spread has experienced reverse line movement in favor of the Bears: That’s where the big (smart) money is going.
It’s not that I think that QB Matt Barkley is the best Matt QB in the league — he’s almost certainly not even the best Matt QB in this game — but the Bears have averaged 23.5 PPG with him as the starter, and Howard (in a small sample) has done well with Barkley:
The Lions are 25th in rush DVOA and 29th in rush DVOA against RBs.
Jonathan Stewart ($5,400 DK, $6,500 FD): The Panthers are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Chargers, who are allowing RB units to score 27.7 DK and 24.0 FD PPG — the league’s fifth-highest marks. Stewie is basically the only Carolina RB to get significant carries over the last month . . .
. . . and he’s literally the only Panther besides QB Cam Newton to get an opportunity inside the 10-yard line in that time frame.
Lamar Miller ($5,100 DK, $7,200 FD): One of the few RBs discounted on DK, Miller has an 87 percent Bargain Rating, which in theory should make him more attractive. The Texans are 5.5-point road underdogs implied to score 20.5 points against the Colts, who are 31st in rush DVOA. (Again, that should theoretically make Miller more attractive.)
Of course, this year Miller is the stone-cold WOAT as a road underdog:
What do we say to the god of death?
#NailedIt
Rob Kelley ($4,200 DK, $5,900 FD): Fat Rob has done admirably as the Redskins’ lead back, earning 77.89 percent of the team’s rush attempts and seeing lots of opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games:
The Eagles are ninth in rush DVOA, but they’ve still allowed lead backs to get their production:
Kelley’s not likely to have a huge game, but he does have top-10 ceiling projections.
Latavius Murray ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD): The Raiders are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.25 points against the division rival Chiefs. Latavius leads the entire NFL with 16 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games:
Do you think there’s a chance that the Raiders get inside the 10-yard line in this game?
Theo Riddick ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD): The Lions are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Bears. Since becoming a target monster last year, Riddick has been at his best at home:
On the other hand, the Bears are holding RB units to only 21.0 DK and 18.3 FD PPG — the seventh- and eighth-lowest marks in the league.
Doug Martin ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD): Since returning from injury four weeks ago, Martin has gotten lots of opportunities:
There’s no reason for Martin not to get opportunities this week. The Buccaneers are 2.5-point home favorites against the Saints, who are allowing RB units to score 26.5 DK and 23.4 FD PPG — the eighth-highest marks in the slate.
He has eight carries inside the 10-yard line over the last four weeks.
Thomas Rawls ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD): Rawls has the Seattle job all to himself, and that’s great, but we’re projecting him to be one of the slate’s chalkiest RBs after his 100-yard, tw0-TD performance last week. An outburst that results in 27.8 DK and 24.3 FD points is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s possible . . .
. . . that Rawls’ Week 13 performance was an outlier.
Some caution is warranted.
Jeremy Hill ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FD): The last two weeks without Giovani Bernard, Hill’s played against the Ravens and Eagles, both of whom are top-10 in rush DVOA. As a result, his production has been somewhat muted . . .
. . . but his workload has increased dramatically: He’s seeing four more carries and 3.2 more targets per game without Bernard.
This week, the Bengals are five-point road favorites implied to score 24 points against the 0-12 Browns, who are allowing RB units to score 28.2 DK and 25.3 FD PPG — the fourth- and third-highest totals in the league.
Hill has vastly underappreciated upside in this matchup, and he’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership.
LeGarrette Blount ($5,300 DK, $6,700 FD), Dion Lewis ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD), and James White ($3,800 DK, $4,700 FD): The Patriots are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Ravens, who are easily first in rush DVOA. Because of the Ravens’ stoutness against the running game, the Patriots RBs might be unpopular plays, even in the smaller prime time slate.
Here’s the thing: The Ravens have allowed 14 rushing TDs to RBs this year, and they’re also 22nd in pass DVOA against RBs.
Blount leads the league in TDs rushing, and Lewis and White have combined for 37 targets over the last three games.
They’ll all have opportunities.
The Super Models
This week, we (currently) have two non-Zeke RBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Carlos Hyde: $4,900 DK, $6,900 FD
• Devontae Booker: $4,800 DK, $6,600 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
He’s Got the Klaep
Against the Jets defense, which is second in rush DVOA, Hyde is the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models. How? Why?
Hyde is one of the few RBs who’s cheap on DK — he has an 82 percent Bargain Rating — and the 49ers are home favorites. True, they’re favored by only 2.5 points, and they’re implied to score only 23.5 points — but it’s not easy to find a competent lead back who’s both favored at home and cheap.
On the plus side, Hyde has been good at home this year:
On the negative side, Hyde has been immensely mediocre with QB Colin Kaepernick as the starter:
We’re projecting Hyde for five to eight and two to four percent DK and FD ownership.
Remember . . .
It’s not easy to find value on DK. Booker has a 67 percent DK Bargain Rating. He also (barring a Justin Forsett emergence) has the Denver backfield primarily to himself with Kapri Bibbs on injured reserve.
Let’s get this out of the way: Over the last four games, Booker has been a f*cking nightmare of a DK asset:
At the same time — even when Booker was contending with Bibbs, he still led the team with 66.09 percent of the carries and was the only RB to get an opportunity inside the 10-yard line.
The Broncos are implied to score 21.75 points on the road against the Titans in a pick’em. If the Broncos defense can keep the game close, Booker has an underappreciated chance of getting enough touches to return value — even though the Titans are holding RB units to 20.2 DK and 17.9 FD PPG (the fifth-lowest marks in the league).
Booker’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Sports Geek Model.
The Coda
He’s had a tough go of it recently, in part because his offensive line for a time was melting away like Voldemort’s skin after his final curse rebounds, like so . . .
. . . but Jay Ajayi ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD) is still a guy with GPP-winning, multi-TD upside every week. Since becoming the lead RB in Week 5, Ajayi in the aggregate has been a stud:
His potential absolutely must be respected, regardless of his matchup.
Now then, let’s take a look at whom the Dolphins are playing . . .
. . . never mind.
Kill the spare.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 14 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
