The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Week 14: Quarterbacks
I just spent about an hour looking at hundreds of GIFs. Godfather Part II, Orange Is the New Black, The Hills, Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, Star Wars, every f*cking Will Ferrell movie, Game of Thrones, and of course Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life — I considered them all.
In the end, I chose this:
Thanks, Week 13 Drew Brees.
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
A Few More Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s QB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 6:36.
Moving on . . .
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and many pieces before that, QB salaries (in general) are relatively inflated on FanDuel and deflated on DraftKings (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 82 percent. On DK, 13 QBs have higher Bargain Ratings. Four of the 12 FD players with the highest salaries in the slate are QBs. On DK, only one QB has a top-12 salary. If you want to pay up for QBs, know that it’s easier to acquire top-tier QB Plus/Minus on FD than DK. Arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big One
Most weeks, the same group of QBs is at the top of the DK and FD salary scales. Sometimes it’s the Big Five. Other times it’s the Big Seven. Last week it was only the Big One.
And it’s the same situation this week:
Let’s do this.
You Got to Do What You Should
Last week, Brees ($7,400 DK, $8,700 FD) was playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football against a Lions defense that was dead last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Even though Brees managed to pass for 326 yards — the slate’s fourth-highest total — the outcome was still . . .
. . . less than satisfactory, as he finished with 13.0 DK and 10.0 FD points per game (PPG) on the ‘strength’ of three interceptions:
But at least I’m not bitter.
This week, Brees is playing against a division rival . . .
. . . on the road:
Per our Trends tool, that’s been a bad situation for Brees since 2014.
Honestly, Brees has been the worst version of himself in that scenario ever since he arrived in New Orleans. Per RotoViz, over the last decade Brees has been great when playing against non-divisional opponents at home (except for last frakking week) . . .
. . . and he’s been significantly worse when playing a divisional rival on the road:
Brees does have some factors in his favor: The Saints are playing against the Buccaneers in a game that currently has a slate-high Vegas total of 51 points, and the Bucs at least are allowing opposing QBs to score 20.1 DK and 18.7 FD PPG. (For reference, the Falcons have league-high marks of 22.1 DK and 21.2 FD PPG allowed to QBs.)
The Saints are 2.5-point underdogs — but (in a limited sample) the Bucs have actually allowed underdog QBs to do very well:
One of those QBs was Case Keenum, so this data isn’t cherry-picked. Case ain’t no cherry.
Also, Brees is the most expensive QB to play against the Bucs this year. Of the QBs to face them, the top half of the cohort based on salary has done well:
So it’s not all bad for Brees.
Then again, the Bucs have a run-friendly funnel defense that ranks ninth in pass DVOA and 23rd in rush DVOA. It’s possible that, if the Saints keep the game close, they’ll rely more on running backs Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower than expected.
Because Brees nut-punched the world last week, he might be rostered less than he should be, considering that QBs somewhat comparable to him — non-cheap and/or underdog QBs — have succeeded against the Bucs. He could be an option for practitioners of contrarianism.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, we talked about the possibility of Brees having a bounceback performance in this spot. (2016 DK Fantasy Football World Champion Aaron Jones [aejones] was this week’s guest.)
Brees is still the DK QB1 on the season with 25.02 PPG, and he leads the slate with seven Pro Trends on DK, where he currently has the highest median projection (21.8 points) and ceiling projection (31.2 points) as well as a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.) At that ownership, he deserves consideration in guaranteed prize pools.
At the same time, the thought of rostering Brees when he’s the slate’s most expensive QB and on the road playing against a divisional rival with a top-10 pass defense . . .
. . . is tough to stomach.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,800 DK, $7,300 FD): Another puncher of global nuts, Kaepernick was one of the best DFS QBs for six straight weeks . . .
. . . and then he was a nightmare in Week 13:
He was so bad that, in the most Chip Kelly maneuver ever, he was benched for the guy he sent to the bench a couple of months ago.
Here’s the thing: We already knew that Konami Code Colin was a bad QB. Even with all of his DFS success, he was averaging a 55.3 percent completion rate in his first six starts. Last week’s fiasco changes nothing. What happened is what happens when a bad QB plays in cold, snowy, windy, sh*tty weather. Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Kaep is still San Fran’s starter. It’s hard to ignore a starting QB averaging 56.1 rushing yards per game (YPG). Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kaep leads all QBs with 26.32 percent of his team’s rushes through the last four weeks:
The 49ers are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Jets, whose funnel defense is now last in pass DVOA. Kaep is projected for two to four percent ownership. He currently has slate-high floor projections of 12 DK and 11.9 FD points.
By the way, when Levitanimal just read those two paragraphs, he messaged me: “LETS GOOGOGOGOGO.” You heard the manimal.
And about last week . . .
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000 DK, $8,100 FD): The Steelers are two-point road favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Bills. On the one hand, the Bills are allowing visiting QBs to do fairly well:
On the other hand, even with the best wide receiver in the world Ben sucks as a road favorite:
We’re projecting him to have two to four percent ownership for a reason.
Derek Carr ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD): The Raiders are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.75 points against the division rival Chiefs, who are 12th in pass DVOA. Across his three-year career, Carr has been at his worst against division opponents . . .
. . . on the road:
This past Sunday, I asked this question on Twitter:
Right now, the NFL MVP is … ???
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 4, 2016
Carr was the most common response. He’s had a great season, but this Thursday night he’s likely to struggle if past trends hold true.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD): Rodgers is still a top-two fantasy QB with 24.87 DK and 23.53 FD PPG, and he’s the cheapest he’s been all season. In fact, he’s the cheapest he’s been since 2014 (by $300 on both DK and FD).
On the one hand, Rodgers has been Alex Smith-esque this season with his ‘efficiency’ — he’s averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt — and he’s historically sucked whenever DK and FD have dropped his salary:
On the other hand, he makes for a strong contrarian play because he’s facing Seattle’s defense, which is sixth in pass DVOA — but it’s now without Pro Bowl free safety Earl Thomas, and this year it hasn’t been its usual stout self against non-division QBs:
Anytime you can have exposure to a top-two fantasy QB at home at a massively reduced price at no more than eight percent projected ownership . . .
. . . you should strongly consider it.
Matt Barkley ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD): The Bears are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 18 points against the division rival Lions . . . but the Lions are 30th in pass DVOA, and the Bears have averaged 23.5 PPG in Barkley’s two starts, in which he’s actually been not horrible:
At the same time, he’s unrosterable in cash, and who are you going to stack him with in GPPs? He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Trevor Siemian ($5,100 DK, $7,000 FD): Since Week 6, the Titans have been destroyed by QBs:
After missing last week’s game, Siemian (foot) is expected to start this week against the Titans in Week 14 with ownership approaching zero percent.
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD): This dude is a f*cking gamer. Most QBs underperform on the road. Most QBs underperform against division opponents. Not Captain Kirk. With Jay Gruden as head coach, Cousins has been a divisional road warrior:
In those six games, the Redskins have scored (and allowed) a lot of points, and Cousins has had some massive production:
You know it’s coming:
Bryce Petty ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD): In 2008, then-Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey turned Tyler Thigpen — an unspectacular second-year backup QB — into a serviceable fantasy player. It’s possible that Gailey could do the same thing — at least in this game — with Petty. The Jets offensive coordinator is something of a QB whisperer. He once made people think that Ryan Fitzpatrick was an NFL QB.
The Jets are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21 points — but they’re playing against the 49ers, who are 28th in pass DVOA.
Just think of Petty as a chili hot dog: Messy, almost certainly bad for you, highly likely to give you diarrhea — but something you’re still tempted to taste.
Russell Wilson ($6,600 DK, $7,900 FD): The Seahawks are 2.5-point road favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the Packers, whose funnel defense is 22nd in pass DVOA. Ever since Doug Baldwin emerged as the team’s lead wide receiver in 2014, Wilson has been a strong player as a road favorite:
He’s projected for five to eight percent ownership.
Matt Ryan ($6,500 DK, $8,300 FD): The Falcons are 5.5-point road favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Rams. Ryan currently leads the slate with seven Pro Trends on DK, where road QBs comparable to Ryan in salary have sheared the Rams since Gregg Williams became defensive coordinator in 2014:
The Falcons are averaging a league-high 32.2 PPG, and Ryan is projected for zero to one percent DK ownership.
Matthew Stafford ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD): The Lions are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Bears. With Jim Caldwell as head coach for the last three years, Stafford has been good as a home favorite . . .
. . . and home QBs have had success this year against the Bears:
We’re expecting Stafford to be chalky-ish with nine to 12 percent ownership.
Jared Goff ($5,000 DK, $6,700 FD): Two games ago, Goff threw three TD passes against the Saints, and now the Rams are 5.5-point home underdogs playing against a Falcons team that allows QBs to score league-high totals of 22.1 DK and 21.2 FD PPG.
That said . . .
. . . optimism is the meat on which fantasy scavengers like Goff feed.
Philip Rivers ($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD): The Chargers are one-point road underdogs implied to score 23.5 points against the Panthers. With Mike McCoy as head coach, Rivers has been strong against non-division opponents:
Also, the Panthers have a funnel defense that ranks sixth in rush DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA. The Chargers could be motivated to throw the ball.
At the same time, Rivers has been inconsistent this year as an underdog . . .
. . . and road QBs have been inconsistent against the Panthers:
Rivers is projected for two to four percent ownership.
Brock Osweiler ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD): The Texans are 5.5-point road underdogs implied to score 20.75 points against the division rival Colts. In his tenure as Texans head coach, Bill O’Brien has overseen a slew of QBs who have been the absolute stone-cold f*cking WOAT as road underdogs against divisional opponents:
Yes, this group includes such QB luminaries as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, T.J. Yates, and Tom Savage. But is Brock really all that different from these guys?
I’m contractually obligated to tell you that the Colts are 29th in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 21.0 DK and 20.1 FD PPG — the league’s third-highest marks.
If you enjoy that Siren song, it’s your watery grave, sailor.
Andy Dalton ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD): The Bengals are 5.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.25 points against the Browns, who are 31st in pass DVOA and allowing QBs to score 21.6 DK and 20.5 FD PPG — the league’s second-highest marks.
Dalton’s coming off his best game of the season (25.2 DK and 22.2 FD points), this is his best matchup of the year, and we’re projecting him for zero to one percent ownership.
If not now, when?
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400 DK, $7,460 FD): Ever since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Tygod has been heavenly:
Tyrod has been supported by his strong rushing production, as he’s averaged 48.4 yards and 0.6 TDs on the ground per game since Week 3.
The Bills are two-point home underdogs implied to score 22.5 points against the Steelers. In his 12 starts at home over the last two years, Taylor has +4.67 DK and +4.54 FD Plus/Minus values with 83.3 percent Consistency.
Carson Palmer ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD): The Cardinals are on the road playing against the Dolphins, who allow QBs to score 20.5 DK and 19.6 FD PPG — the league’s fifth- and fourth-highest marks — and he’s projected for minimal ownership. I guess you could roster Palmer in a GPP?
Joe Flacco ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD): Last week, Flacco went wacko with slate-high totals of 33.2 DK and 30.2 FD points on 381 yards and four TDs passing. This week he’s facing the Patriots. The Ravens are seven-point road favorites implied to score only 19.25 points, so it’s not a great spot for Flacco — but throughout his career he’s had some big performances against the Pats, going over 20 fantasy points in four of his eight career games against them:
Note that three of these baller performances came on the road in the playoffs. Flacco can handle the pressure of facing the Patriots in Foxborough.
Of the four QBs playing on Sunday and Monday nights, he might have the lowest ownership.
Marcus Mariota ($6,200 DK, $7,900 FD): Immovable object meets unstoppable force. The Broncos are holding QBs to slate-low totals of 14.0 DK and 13.5 FD PPG. Since the first month of the season, Mariota has been a top-three fantasy QB:
The Titans are currently implied to score 21.75 points at home against the Broncos in a pick’em, and Mariota is projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Andrew Luck ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD): The Colts are 5.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Texans, who are holding opposing QBs to 15.8 DK and 15.4 FD PPG — the fifth-lowest marks in the league.
The Texans’ apparent ability to limit QBs notwithstanding, Luck is in a good spot. He has negligible division/non-division splits, and he also has negligible favorite/underdog splits when he’s at home, where he’s been a top-four fantasy QB over the last three years:
Ever since BOB has been the Texans head coach, Luck has done well against the team, averaging 23.43 DK and 22.09 FD PPG on 66.7 percent Consistency.
Luck has chalky-ish nine to 12 and 13-16 percent DK and FD ownership projections.
Tom Brady ($7,100 DK, $8,600 FD): Since John Harbaugh became head coach of the Ravens in 2008, Brady has played against his team eight times:
Against the Ravens, Brady has multiple passing TDs only twice and 300-plus passing yards only thrice. He has a 10:10 TD:INT ratio. Even though he’s luckily scored three TDs rushing in the sample, Brady’s had fewer than 15 fantasy points half the time.
The Ravens have something of a funnel defense in that they are a strong first in rush DVOA and ‘only’ fifth in pass DVOA, but against them QBs are scoring only 16.7 DK and 16.0 FD PPG — the ninth-lowest marks in the league. The Ravens are second in the league with only 17.3 PPG allowed.
Brady’s the QB3 on the season with 23.96 DK and 22.46 FD PPG, but he’s without tight end Rob Gronkowski, and he’s priced as a top-three QB even though he’s in a tough spot.
It’s nice that the Pats are seven-point road favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Ravens — but Brady’s risky at his price.
Jameis Winston ($6,700 DK, $8,200 FD): The Bucs are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 26.75 points against the Saints in a game that has a slate-high 51-point over/under. The Saints are 26th in pass DVOA.
It’s been awhile since a GIF:
Winston is projected for chalky-ish 13-16 and nine to 12 percent DK and FD ownership.
The Super Models
As I write this, there are four QBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Cam Newton: $7,200 DK, $7,800 FD
• Eli Manning: $5,500 DK, $8,000 FD
• Dak Prescott: $5,900 DK, $8,000 FD
• Robert Griffin III: $5,000 DK, $6,200 FD
Get your freak on.
The Godfather
A Cam who doesn’t steal touchdowns from his running back can never be a real Cam. Newton’s been inconsistent over the last month, but he has two TDs rushing and 22.55 percent of the Panthers’ rushes over that period:
With a slate-high 82 percent Bargain Rating, Newton is the highest-rated QB in the CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for FD, where he’s priced as the QB14. (On DK, Cam’s the QB2.)
The Panthers are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Chargers. Cam is priced near his three-year low, and he’s done well in that time whenever he’s been favored with a similar FD salary:
Cam’s projected at two to four percent ownership.
You Can’t Spell “Elite” Without “Lite”
Manning is the QB16 on FD. On DK, he has a slate-high 98 percent Bargain Rating priced as the QB21 and is the highest-rated QB in the Bales, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models.
The Giants are three-point home underdogs implied to score only 22.25 points against the divisional rival Cowboys. All of that might seem bad for the Giants, but the Cowboys are 27th in pass DVOA and currently without cornerback Morris Claiborne (groin).
Additionally, Eli’s in a spot that has historically been good for him. Since head coach Ben McAdoo joined the Giants staff in 2014, Eli has been strong as a home . . .
. . . underdog . . .
. . . playing against a divisional opponent:
That final sample is small, but even if you looked only at Eli at home, that trend might be enough to suggest that he’s worth rostering in GPPs.
At $5,500 DK, Eli is the cheapest he’s ever been with McAdoo . . .
. . . and anytime he’s been below $6,000 at home he’s done well:
We’re projecting him for five to eight percent DK ownership.
I love that GIF.
A History Lesson
Dak is the highest-rated QB in the CSURAM88 Model for DK, where he has a Bargain Rating of 96 percent and is priced as the QB16. (He’s salaried at QB11 on FD, along with Rogers, Rivers, and Carr — the bizarro Creedence Clearwater Revival.)
The Cowboys are three-point road favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Giants, who are holding QBs to 15.2 DK and 14.2 FD PPG — the third- and second-lowest marks in the league.
The Cowboys are in an unusual situation, coming off of back-to-back Thursday games. The Cowboys have been in a similar situation once before in the Jason Garrett era — playing on the road in December against the division rival Eagles after two Thursday games — and Tony Romo was his usual, efficient 2014 self with 265 yards and three TDs for 21.5 DK and 20.5 FD points.
In the Garrett era, the Cowboys have played five games on Sundays or Mondays after having the previous weekend off because of Thursday games. Romo (a.k.a. a competent QB, i.e., not Matt Cassel) started four of those games. Three of those four were on the road, and two were against division opponents. On average, those four games had an over/under of 48.625, and the Cowboys were 2.625-point favorites implied to score 25.625 points.
Three of the four ‘competent QB’ starts turned into shootouts. The Cowboys and their opponents exceeded their implied totals by respective averages of 3.625 and eight points, and the Cowboys accumulated 22.3875 DK and 20.75 FD QB PPG.
The Giants are the lone team to beat Dak in his young career. They’re holding teams to only 19.8 PPG, and defensively they’re seventh in pass DVOA. Dak isn’t likely to combust — he leads the NFL with an 85.2 Total QBR (per ESPN) and is in a situation in which a competent QB under Garrett has historically thrived — but the Giants this year have -1.05 DK and -1.42 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values against QBs, who are reaching their salary-based expectations only 33.3 and 25 percent of the time.
This isn’t likely to be an easy game for the non-Ezekiel Elliott Rookie of the Year candidate.
Goodbye, Norma Jean
RG3 is the highest-rated QB in the Bales Model for FD, where Griffin is cheaper than Blaine Gabbert and Josh McCown.
The 0-12 Browns are five-point home underdogs implied to score 19 points against the 4-7-1 Bengals, who are allowing QBs to score 20.3 DK and 18.9 FD PPG.
If you had to place money on one QB to have a big performance in a meaningless game with only two to four percent of the population on him, wouldn’t you at least consider RG3?
That guy lives his life like a candle in the wind.
The Coda
For some reason, it actually matters where Blake Bortles ($5,000 DK, $6,900 FD) plays when he’s an underdog.
Since breaking out last year, he’s a GOAT as a road underdog . . .
. . . but he’s the WOAT when he’s a home dog:
In case you were wondering: A Consistency Rating of 20 percent isn’t good.
The Jaguars are 3.5-point home underdogs implied to score only 18.25 points against the Vikings, who are holding QBs to 14.6 DK and 14.3 FD PPG — the league’s second- and third-lowest marks.
If we could project him for sub-zero ownership, we would strongly consider it.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 14 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
