The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Week 13: Wide Receivers
“My philosophy is that worrying means you suffer twice.”
— Newt Scamander
WR Pricing
As I’ve pointed out in the WR Breakdown previously, our Bargain Rating metric indicates that WRs are ridiculously expensive on DraftKings and historically cheap on FanDuel.
For instance, if you look in the Player Models, you’ll see that only one of the 12 highest DK WR salaries belongs to a player with a Bargain Rating of at least 10 percent. On FD, only one WR has a Bargain Rating lower than 10 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that half of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs. DK is really valuing its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only three of the top-12 salaries belong to WRs. There’s a disparity in WR pricing between DK and FD, and it’s significant. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s WR Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 10:28.
Moving on . . .
The Big Four
This week, we have a clear top tier of four WRs at the top of the salary scale on both sites. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values might not look all that impressive, but at a position as volatile as WR those numbers are pretty good, especially when you take into account the raw points per game (PPG) and also the Consistency.
Here they are:
• Antonio Brown: $9,100 DK (WR1), $9,000 FD (WR1/2)
• Odell Beckham: $8,500 DK (WR4), $9,000 FD (WR1/2)
• Julio Jones: $8,700 DK (WR2), $8,300 FD (WR4)
• Mike Evans: $8,600 DK (WR3), $8,500 FD (WR3)
Let’s shred this secondary.
Antonio at Home
The good news for Antonio is that the Steelers are six-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 27.5 points. Over the last three years, Antonio has been especially exceptional as a home favorite:
Phrased differently:
The bad news for Antonio is that he’s playing against the Giants, who are eighth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Per our Matchups tool, Antonio is likely to run most of his outside routes against cornerback Janoris Jenkins, Pro Football Focus’ No. 12 coverage CB. And when Antonio moves to the slot, he’s likely to face Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, PFF’s No. 9 coverage CB. Per John Proctor’s WR/CB Matchups, “this coverage unit is technically a downgrade” for Brown.
This isn’t to say that Antonio doesn’t have the potential to dominate. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Brown has seen 30.41 percent of the Steelers’ targets over the past four weeks, and over that time he’s basically been spitting fire, like so:
Per RotoViz . . .
. . . Antonio’s on a pretty big heater right now.
We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Antonio. He doesn’t just have the highest ceiling in the slate. His ceiling is higher than any other WR’s ceiling by at least 6.1 DK and 4.4 FD points.
If you want Antonio, you certainly won’t be alone in rostering him. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
Unsurprisingly, Antonio has the Levitanimal stamp of approval: He’s the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model.
Eight Weeks Going on Nine
The first month of the season, people were flipping out about OBJ. For the eight weeks since then, OBJ has easily been one of the most productive WRs in the NFL:
The circumstances, though, are against Beckham this week. The Giants are six-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.5 points against the Steelers. Beckham is more productive when he’s at home and/or favored. When he’s been a road dog, he really hasn’t been that good:
Positive Plus/Minus with an awful 36.4 percent Consistency Rating? Roster OBJ (if you must) in guaranteed prize pools (with his 17-20 percent projected ownership), but don’t think about rostering him in cash games.
It doesn’t really help his case that the Steelers are holding opposing WR units to 34.0 DK and 25.8 FD PPG — the fifth- and fourth-lowest marks in the league.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, regulars Adam Levitan and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) and guest Eric Crain universally liked OBJ the least of The Big Four.
The Man With the Moustache
Even though Julio sucked last week, turning only seven targets into a pitiful 4-35-0 stat line, he still is fourth in the NFL with 29.32 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games . . .
. . . and he still leads the NFL with 103.6 yards per game.
The Falcons are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Chiefs, who are allowing the most fantasy points in the NFL to WRs: 44.6 DK and 35.0 FD PPG.
Of course, with Julio there are two problems.
First, with Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator, Julio has (relatively) sucked as a home favorite:
Second, even though Julio is averaging 9.5 targets per game, his target totals are volatile on a weekly basis, and when he hasn’t at least approached double-digit targets he hasn’t done well:
Still, this could be a week in which he gets his targets. We’re projecting him to run most of his routes against Phillip Gaines, who has an awful PFF coverage grade of 36.2 and ranks as the ‘116th-best’ cover CB in the NFL.
We’re projecting Julio’s ownership to be 21-25 percent on DK and a slate-high 31-40 percent on FD, where he’s currently the highest-rated WR in the Levitan Model.
231 Pounds of 6’5″ Bad-Assery
Evans in theory has a tough matchup this week, as he’s expected to be shadowed by Chargers CB Casey Hayward, who has a strong PFF coverage grade of 85.9 and is currently PFF’s No. 5 cover CB.
Of course, Evans also theoretically had a difficult matchup last week, when he turned 11 targets into an 8-104-2 stat line against the Seahawks defense and its No. 2 pass DVOA.
I normally try to stay away from the straight tout — and I’m not saying that you must roster Evans — but I want Evans.
He leads the NFL with 12 targets and 0.91 TDs per game. He’s third in the league with a respectable 92.7 yards per game. He leads the league with 31.29 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games. He’s reached his salary-based expectations with a solid 72.7 percent Consistency this year.
The Bucs are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 22 points against the Chargers. This year, Evans has hit his salary-based expectations in all five road games — and the Bucs were dogs in all of them.
If you’re looking for a high-upside pivot away from Antonio and Julio, then Evans could be your guy.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Stefon Diggs ($6,700 DK, $6,500 FD): Diggs (knee) didn’t play last week but is expected to play on Thursday night against the Cowboys, who have been abused soundly by slot WRs this season:
Per PFF, Diggs runs 58 percent of his routes from the slot.
If you’re looking for some Thursday fun, Diggs could be your guy. He’s second in the NFL with 7.4 receptions per game and eighth with 83.0 YPG.
Michael Thomas ($6,900 DK, $6,900 FD), Brandin Cooks ($6,400 DK, $6,800 FD), and Willie Snead ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): #CoorsField — “If you have to ask, you’ll never know. If you know, you need only ask”:
At least one of these guys is likely to have a big game, as the Saints are six-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points in a game with a slate-high 53.5-point over/under . . . and they’re hosting the Lions, who just happen to be dead last in pass DVOA.
Excuse me for a second . . .
. . . moving on.
Thomas is pacing to join the prestigious 1,000-10 rookie WR club, Cooks is a squeaky wheel about to get greased, and Snead is Antonio ca. 2011-2012.
Just in case you actually need it in neon lighting.
Golden Tate ($6,200 DK, $5,900 FD), Marvin Jones ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD), and Anquan Boldin ($4,100 DK, $5,000 FD): The Saints are 25th in pass DVOA, this game is likely to be a shootout, and the Saints don’t have one CB with a PFF coverage grade better than average.
If you’re stacking the Saints this week, be sure to run it back with a Lions receiver using the special feature in our Multi-Lineup Builder.
Jones is now expected to be out, but you should probably still give some attention to Tate and Boldin.
Dez Bryant ($6,900 DK, $7,700 FD): Perhaps let this one be the (Xavier) Rhodes not taken.
T.Y. Hilton ($7,600 DK, $7,600 FD) and Donte Moncrief ($6,600 DK, $6,700 FD): For your Monday night enjoyment, the Colts are traveling to New York to take on the Jets as 1.5-point favorites implied to score 25 points.
The Jets have a WR-friendly funnel defense that is 29th in pass DVOA and third in rush DVOA. They’re allowing WR units to score 40.9 DK and 32.4 FD PPG — the fifth-highest marks in the league. Plus quarterback Andrew Luck (concussion) seems likely to play after practicing all week.
Of course, there’s a problem: Ever since Moncrief emerged as a legitimate WR last season, neither he nor Hilton have been viable options on the road:
Really, this home/road split might be enough to move me off of Hilton and Moncrief altogether.
Hilton and Moncrief are expected to run most of their routes against Buster Skrine and Darrelle Revis, both of whom have poor PFF coverage grades and rank outside PFF’s top-80 cover CBs.
Amari Cooper ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD) and Michael Crabtree ($6,000 DK, $6,400 FD): Cooper and Crabtree have reverse home/road splits this season . . .
. . . and the Raiders are hosting the Bills, who have something of a funnel defense that flows toward the running game.
It’s not that C&C are horrible plays this weekend. It’s just that neither one seems particularly enticing. If I had to roster one, I’d actually probably go with Crabtree. He leads the team with 26.92 percent of the targets over the last four games, yet he’s scoreless in that time frame and is substantially cheaper than Cooper.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD), Michael Floyd ($4,200 DK, $4,900 FD), J.J. Nelson ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD), and John Brown ($3,800 DK, $5,400 FD): Right now, Brown (hamstring) looks unlikely to play in Week 13 — monitor his situation on the FantasyLabs News feed — but the other three WRs are in intriguing spots.
The Cardinals are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Redskins.
We’re projecting Nelson to be sacrificed on the altar of CB Josh Norman, which means that for most of the game Fitz is going to be in the slot going against Kendall Fuller and Floyd will be on the outside facing Bashaud Breeland, both of whom have very poor PFF coverage grades of 50.8.
Fitz in particular is the guy to consider. He’s third in the NFL with 10 targets per game but doesn’t have a TD in six games.
Jordy Nelson ($7,000 DK, $7,400 FD), Davante Adams ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD), Randall Cobb ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD), and Ty Montgomery ($4,200 DK WR, $4,700 FD RB): The Packers are seven-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Texans.
On the one hand, any of these guys could bust loose for a multi-TD game in any given week.
On the other hand, the Texans are holding WR units to 32.1 DK and 24.4 FD PPG — the third-lowest marks in the league.
Sammy Watkins ($5,500 DK, $6,300 FD): Watkins (foot) returned to action last week and turned his three targets (on limited snaps) into three receptions and 80 yards. Watkins is likely to see even more targets (and snaps) this week.
The Bills are three-point road underdogs implied to score 22.5 points against the Raiders, who are allowing WR units to score 41.1 DK and 32.1 FD PPG.
Watkins is projected for nine to 12 and five to eight percent ownership on DK and FD.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD) and Will Fuller ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD): The Texans are seven-point road underdogs against the Packers, who are allowing WR units to score 40.0 DK and 33.0 FD PPG. I don’t trust QB Brock Osweiler . . .
. . . but it’s hard to ignore two high-quality WRs going against a pass-friendly funnel defense in a spot that requires their team to throw the ball.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,200 DK, $6,800 FD) and Ted Ginn ($4,000 DK, $4,900 FD): The Panthers are seven-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.75 points against the Seahawks. I know what you’re thinking:
Just remember that K-Benjy and the Man Who Outlived Megatron are leading the Panthers in targets with 22.31 percent each over the last four games, and they’re projected for zero to one percent ownership.
CB Richard Sherman (who has struggled against large WRs this season) is expected to shadow Benjamin, and Ginn always has the potential to get free for a long TD.
This call reeks of contrarianism, but it might not be crazy.
Julian Edelman ($6,800 DK, $6,600 FD), Chris Hogan ($4,400 DK, $5,500 FD), and Malcolm Mitchell ($3,600 DK, $5,600 FD): The Patriots are slate-high 13.5-point home favorites implied to score 29.5 points against the Rams.
There’s this misconception that the Rams are good on defense. They’re not, especially when it comes to defending WRs, whom they’re allowing to score 40.8 DK and 31.9 FD PPG.
With tight end Rob Gronkowski (herniated disk) out for the rest of the season, there should be more targets to go around for the WRs.
The Super Models
Here are the non-Antonio/Julio WRs at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Doug Baldwin: $6,700 DK, $6,900 FD
• Quincy Enunwa: $4,500 DK, $4,700 FD
• Marquess Wilson: $4,000 DK, $5,400 FD
• Jeremy Kerley: $3,300 DK, $5,400 FD
Bang a gong.
It Happened One Month Ago
For the last four weeks, Baldwin has actually been a pretty decent WR:
In that time frame, he actually leads the Seahawks with 21.95 percent of the team’s targets. He’s starting to round into form.
The Seahawks are seven-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Panthers, who have a pass-friendly funnel defense allowing WR units to score 40.4 DK and 32.4 FD PPG.
Primarily a slot receiver, Baldwin is expected to run the majority of his routes against Leonard Johnson, who has a horrid PFF coverage grade of 41.1. Baldwin has PFF’s most advantageous WR matchup of the slate.
Baldwin is the highest-rated WR in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models for FD, where he’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership.
The Major Was a Lady Suffragette
I seriously doubt that Enunwa is a good player, but he’s a volatile player. Since he’s basically a GPP-only play anyway, that volatility works.
Over the last four weeks, he’s gotten 20.63 percent of the Jets’ targets, so he has a steady flow of opportunities. Target fluctuation doesn’t seem to be something that impacts him: On basically the same number of targets, he either scores a TD and gets a good chunk of yards . . . or he doesn’t:
This could be a week in which he scores a TD: The Jets are 1.5-point home underdogs implied to score 23.5 points against the Colts, who are 30th in pass DVOA.
If you want to target the Colts passing defense on Monday night but don’t want to roster Enunwa’s more expensive teammate in Brandon Marshall ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD), then Enunwa could be the smart play.
Enunwa is currently the highest-rated FD WR in the Bales Model.
Marque$$
Drew Dinkmeyer’s favorite player is seeing fewer snaps than his teammate Cameron Meredith, but Wilson has two more targets (15 to 13) since making his season debut in Week 11.
Last week Wilson in particular crushed, turning 11 targets from QB Matt Barkley into an 8-125-1 line. This week, the Bears are one-point home favorites implied to score 22.25 points against the 49ers, who are allowing WR units to score 41.6 DK and 34.1 FD PPG — the third-highest marks in the league.
Ask yourself this question: If we’re projecting five to eight percent of the GPP-playing population to roster Wilson, can it really be that unbelievable for him to be the highest-rated DK WR in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models?
For People Who Enjoy Pain
Kerley is amazingly the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales Model at the moment. The Bales Model heavily weights Projected Plus/Minus and Projected Points per Dollar — both of which value cheap players. On DK, Kerley is basically as cheap as it gets for a guy who is averaging 7.4 targets per game.
It also doesn’t hurt that he gets to face the Bears, who have been horrible against slot WRs all year:
Kerley definitely has some underappreciated potential and is expected to be rostered in just zero to one percent of tournament lineups.
The Coda
As a rule I tend to like big WRs, but there’s a certain breed of small WRs — guys like Antonio, Hilton, J-Bro, Snead — who catch my eye. Small guys who have college production and enter the league as players who are largely overlooked.
Taylor Gabriel ($4,000 DK, $5,700 FD) and Tyreek Hill ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD) are two guys like that — and they are doing their cohort proud. Gabriel somehow has 322 scrimmage yards and five TDs in the last four games. Le Freak has 33 targets in that same time span.
Collectively, Tayreek has been a stud over the last four games:
This week the Falcons and the Chiefs are going at it, and there’s a chance that one of these guys could have a big game.
More than anything, this is a general statement: If you’re not sprinkling some of these smaller, athletic, somewhat unknown guys into your GPP lineups before they go on a tear, you’re probably leaving money on the table.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
