The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 13 Tight Ends
“People change.”
— Newt Scamander
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s TE Model Preview by Team FantasyLabs member Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 7:22.
Moving on . . .
To Gronk or Not to Gronk?
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Rob Gronkowski (herniated disc) underwent back surgery on Friday. He’ll miss the rest of the season.
Nothing but indescribable sadness.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Jordan Reed ($6,400 DK, $7,500 FD): Reed (shoulder) is also out. Despite what your grandmother told you, life is not a bowl of cherries.
And what about Vernon Davis ($3,300 DK, $4,600 FD)? The Cardinals are holding TE units to league-low totals of 5.5 DraftKings and 4.0 FanDuel points per game (PPG).
Eric Ebron ($3,900 DK, $5,700 FD): Ebron is playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football in what is expected to be a shootout. The Lions are six-point road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of 23.75 points. The Saints are subpar against TEs, ranking 21st in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ebron has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17-20 percent (available in our Player Models) — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
Ebron is the chalk.
Coby Fleener ($3,500 DK, $5,500 FD) and Josh Hill ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): The Saints are implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points, and they’re playing the Lions, who are 28th in pass DVOA and allowing TEs to score 15.9 DK and 13.1 FD PPG — the fifth- and third-highest marks in the league.
Since last season, the Lions have allowed TEs to score 21 TDs in 27 games.
Even though Fleener has been disappointing this year, he’s actually been a serviceable player at home. Per our Trends tool:
Those Plus/Minus values are pretty good.
And don’t forget about ‘the backup.’ On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Hill was mentioned as an intriguing punt play. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, we can see that Hill has gotten substantially more snaps than Fleener over the past four weeks . . .
. . . and he’s held his own as a receiver, seeing 8.84 percent of the team’s targets in that time frame to Fleener’s 11.56 percent:
If Hill instead of Fleener were the Saints TE to score a TD this weekend, we probably shouldn’t be surprised.
Lance Kendricks ($2,900 DK, $4,900 FD): Kendricks is second on the Rams with 20.59 percent of the targets over the last four weeks, and he’s facing the Patriots, who are 29th in pass DVOA.
He’s projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD): Rudolph is averaging 7.1 targets per game on the season, and he’s facing the Cowboys, who are 30th in pass DVOA against TEs. If you want a Thursday TE, I guess you can use this guy?
Zach Ertz ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD): Over the last four games, Ertz is second on the Eagles with 19.63 percent of the team’s targets, and he’s now facing the Bengals, who are 25th in pass DVOA against the position and allowing TE units to score 16.2 DK and 13.0 FD PPG — the third- and fourth-highest marks in the league.
Ertz is projected for less than five percent ownership.
Travis Kelce ($4,700 DK, $6,300 FD): Kelce leads the Chiefs with 25.87 percent of their targets over the last four weeks, and this week he’s facing the Falcons, who are allowing TE units to score 15.7 DK and 12.7 FD PPG — the sixth- and fifth-highest marks in the league.
The highest-rated DK TE in the Levitan Model, Kelce’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Vance McDonald ($2,900 DK, $4,900 FD): This might be the most unbelievable thing I’ve written — but over the last four weeks (since SF’s bye) McDonald leads the 49ers with 18.06 percent of their targets. Over that time frame, he’s been a serviceable player:
This week he’s facing the Bears, who are 24th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Antonio Gates ($4,100 DK, $5,300 FD) and Hunter Henry ($2,900 DK, $5,800 FD): There’s really nothing special about this matchup — in fact, the Buccaneers are fifth in pass DVOA against TEs — but both guys get targets near the goal line and collectively have 10 TDs on the season.
Gates is cheaper on FD, where he’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership. Henry’s cheaper on DK, where he’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models and has an ownership of just zero to one percent . . . shhhh!
Tyler Eifert ($5,300 DK, $6,800 FD): Eifert is going against the Eagles, who are third in pass DVOA against TEs and holding them to only 7.0 DK and 5.7 FD PPG — the second-lowest marks in the league.
So it’s not a great spot for Eifert . . . but that probably doesn’t matter. If we discount his Week 7 warm-up in which he played limited snaps, Eifert has basically been his old self since returning from injury:
With wide receiver A.J. Green and pass-catching running back Giovani Bernard out, Eifert is likely to be heavily involved in the game plan. Over the last four weeks, he leads the Bengals with 21.66 percent of their total targets and four targets inside the 10-yard line.
If you’re paying up but don’t want TE exposure to the Panthers-Seahawks game, then Eifert is a guy you’ll strongly consider rostering.
He’s projected for five to eight and nine to 12 percent ownership on DK and FD.
Martellus Bennett ($4,800 DK, $5,100 FD): Now Gronk-less, Bennett is facing the Rams, who are 22nd in pass DVOA. It might seem like a good thing for Bennett to have the TE job in New England all to himself, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Per RotoViz:
For what it’s worth, Bennett has a 99 percent FD Bargain Rating.
Greg Olsen ($5,100 DK, $6,200 FD): His production has tailed off a little over the last few weeks — but he still leads the Panthers with 90 targets, 58 receptions, and 790 yards. He’s playing against the Seahawks, who are 18th in pass DVOA.
Look . . . Olsen’s great. He’s sort of the Ron Swanson of TEs — but he has only three TDs on the season and only one target inside the 10-yard line over his last four games.
If I’m going to roster a TE in the CAR-SEA game . . . it’s probably not going to be Olsen.
The Coda
The highest-rated FD TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models, Jimmy Graham ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD) has ‘Made the Four.’ Discounting his Week 1 warm-up in which he played limited snaps, Jimmy has been a good player, meeting his salary-based expectations a majority of the time and rarely punishing his teams with bad performances:
With Gronk and Reed out, Graham is one of the few elite TEs in the slate — and he has a good matchup. The Seahawks are taking on the Panthers, who are 20th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing TE units to score 16.0 DK and 13.6 FD PPG — the fourth- and second-highest marks in the NFL.
Graham is this slate’s Chalk Lite, with ownership projections of nine t0 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD.
He leads the slate with 11 FD Pro Trends.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
