The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
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Week 13: Quarterbacks
“Will we die, just a little?”
— Gellert Grindelwald
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and many pieces before that, QB salaries (in general) are relatively inflated on FanDuel and deflated on DraftKings (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
Six DK QBs have Bargain Ratings of at least 94 percent. (And both of those numbers have increased over the past couple of weeks.) On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 78 percent. (Two weeks ago, it was 82 percent.)
On top of this pricing trend is an oddity: As a cohort, the most expensive QBs are actually more expensive on DK than FD. Of the five most expensive DK QBs, three of them have Bargain Ratings no greater than 38 percent: They are actually much cheaper on FD.
At the same time, five of the 12 FD players with the highest salaries in the slate are QBs. On DK, that number is only two. On FD, the most expensive player on the slate is a QB. On DK, the most expensive QB is outpriced by four running backs and four wide receivers.
There’s a lot going on with the pricing that we could analyze, but basically if you want to pay up for QBs this week you should pay special attention to Bargain Ratings and know that it’s easier to pay up on FD than DK. If you’re paying down for QBs, do it on DK, where it’s easier to acquire QB Plus/Minus. As always, arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big One
Most weeks, the same group of QBs is at the top of the DK and FD salary scales. There’s normally a point in the spreadsheet where I can insert a line above which the QBs on DK are the same as the ones on FD. Sometimes it’s the Big Seven. Last week it was the Big Five.
This week, there are points where I almost get the same group on both sites — eight on one side, seven on the other, etc. — but in this slate there’s no clear line of demarcation or trans-platform consensus after the top QB: Drew Brees ($7,600 DK, $9,300 FD).
Basically, Brees is a top tier of one.
Random aside: If you could have only one “One” for the rest of your life, which would you choose?
Metallica’s?
Or U2’s?
You Got to Do What You Should
This week, Brees is playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football . . .
. . . where’s he’s been an absolute beast against non-division opponents with Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and now Michael Thomas as his top receivers.
As long as Brees has been in New Orleans, he’s been at his best when playing at home against non-NFC South opponents. Per RotoViz:
The Saints are 5.5-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 29.5 points. In a game with a slate-high 53.5-point over/under, they host the Lions, who just happen to be dead last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
A 29.5-point total is high, but the Saints are unquestionably capable of hitting it. On the season, they are averaging 30.4 points per game (PPG), and at home they’re doing even better:
This year, Brees at home has the following finishes:
• Week 1 (OAK): QB2
• Week 3 (ATL): QB4 DK, QB3 FD
• Week 6 (CAR): QB1
• Week 8 (SEA): QB11 DK, QB10 FD
• Week 10 (DEN): QB5 DK, QB8 FD
• Week 12 (LA): QB2
I mean . . .
. . . does it even matter who Brees is playing at home?
He’s been a stone-cold killer at the Superdome all year.
He has a slate-high seven Pro Trends on DK, where he’s the QB1 on the season and has a chalky FantasyLabs ownership projection of 13-16 percent. (Our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.)
One more note on Brees: We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Brees: He currently has the highest ceiling on DK but ‘only’ the fourth-highest ceiling on FD. Why? Because of the three-point bonus on DK for 300 passing yards, which Brees has a very good chance of getting. Only once all year has Brees not passed for at least 300 yards at home, and that was against the Seahawks, who were fifth in pass DVOA.
To borrow from The Folk Implosion, he’s the one, natural one.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Colin Kaepernick ($6,100 DK, $7,800 FD): Stop acting as if you’re too good for KCCK. Last week he was the QB1 with 37.1 DK and 34.1 FD points. Ever since becoming the 49ers’ starting QB in Week 6, Kaep has been a DFS dream:
You might think that Kaep sucks as a passer — and, fine, his 55.3 percent completion rate suggests that he sucks as a passer — but he is averaging 62.2 rushing yards per game (YPG). When you add in the random passing (or rushing!) bonuses that he might get on DK as well as the occasional rushing TDs, that’s probably enough to get some of you excited:
The 49ers are one-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.25 points. That total is undeniably low, but the 49ers have averaged only 19.5 PPG in Kaep’s six starts, and he’s still managed to reach his salary-based expectations in each game.
The 49ers are playing against the Bears, to whom Adam Levitan (on this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex and Twitter) has referred to as the least-talented roster for Week 13.
On FD, Kaep currently has the slate’s second-highest QB floor and ceiling projections.
Projected at nine to 12 percent ownership, Konami Code Colin is expected to be chalk-ish in guaranteed prize pools. In cash games, he’s likely to be a cheap QB who doesn’t destroy lineups — just as he has been for basically the last two months.
Dak Prescott ($5,900 DK, $8,000 FD): He’s a Thursday player, so he might have some inflated GPP ownership, but he deserves consideration in cash games. If we ignore his Week 1 NFL debut, Presgod has been the model of (100 percent) Consistency:
It almost doesn’t matter who or where he’s playing.
The Cowboys are three-point road favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Vikings, who are fourth in pass DVOA. It’s not a great spot for Dak, but I think that he’s pretty much a matchup-proof QB on account of his rushing production: He has 16.8 yards and 0.5 TDs per game on the ground.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys are third in the NFL with 28.7 PPG. And, perhaps bizarrely, they actually do better on the road than at home:
Dak is first in ESPN’s Total QBR at 86.0.
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,400 DK, $8,300 FD): The dude is playing at home against a non-division opponent:
That’s worked out for him pretty well over the last three years.
The Steelers are six-point favorites implied to score 28 points against the Giants.
On the one hand, the Giants are seventh in pass DVOA and allowing opposing QBs to score only 14.9 DK and 13.9 FD PPG. On the other hand, Roethlisberger has the highest QB ceiling projection on FD, where he has a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Alex Smith ($5,400 DK, $7,000 FD): The Chiefs are playing against the Falcons. The Falcons are allowing NFL-high marks of 22.8 DK and 22.0 FD PPG to opposing QBs. In the loosest of senses, the Utahn water walker is a QB.
Eli Manning ($5,900 DK, $7,900 FD): This guy is the ultimate GPP play as a road underdog. The Giants are implied to score only 22 points against the Steelers, who are allowing only 17.0 DK and 15.7 FD PPG to QBs. All of that sucks.
But Manning on DK has a 94 percent Bargain Rating, an ownership projection of zero to one percent, and an outrageous history of volatility as a wandering canine:
Do you see it? The positive Plus/Minus with a horrible 35.7 percent Consistency Rating? That’s the mark of extreme volatility.
Over the last three years, Eli as a road underdog has scored fewer than 20 DK points in 10 games and over 30 DK points in three games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD): On the one hand, the Jets are hosting the Colts, who are 30th in pass DVOA and allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs: 22.0 DK and 21.0 FD PPG.
On the other hand, ShitzTragick in his nine starts this season has thrown more than one TD only twice and more than 300 yards only once.
He isn’t as catastrophic as the Harvard Hall fire of 1764, but he’s definitely worse than the dumpster fire that was the Larry Summers presidency.
Russell Wilson ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD): He’s cheap, and the Seahawks are seven-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Panthers, who have a funnel defense that flows toward the passing game.
In his two non-division home games since regaining his mobility — Wilson was hampered by ankle and knee injuries earlier in the season — he has significantly outperformed expectations:
He’s projected at five to eight percent ownership.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD): Ever since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Tygod has been heavenly:
Tyrod has been supported by his strong rushing production, as he’s averaged 50.4 yards and 0.56 TDs on the ground per game since Week 3. That rushing production is partially why he has the second-highest floor projection on FD.
The Bills are three-point road underdogs implied to score 22.5 points against the Raiders, who are 22nd in pass DVOA and allowing 20.6 DK and 19.3 FD PPG to QBs.
In the three games this season in which the Raiders have been home favorites, they’ve allowed opposing QBs to do some serious damage:
With wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot) back and ready to get more snaps, Tyrod could be positioned for a big game at less than five percent ownership.
Cam Newton ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD): This is a bad spot for Cam. The Panthers are seven-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.75 points against the Seahawks, who defensively are fifth in pass DVOA, second in rush DVOA, and holding QBs to only 16.7 DK and 15.8 FD PPG.
But, seriously, this isn’t that bad of a spot for Newton — because he’s Newton. Throughout his career, he’s somehow managed to produce when he’s been in similar spots before:
The interception total is hideous, and his rushing production is likely unsustainable, and the sample is small — but Newton hasn’t been horrible when playing as a substantial road underdog against an elite defense.
He’s projected for less than five percent ownership.
Tom Brady ($7,500 DK, $8,500 FD): The Patriots are slate-high 13.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.5 points against the Rams, who are middle of the road in pass DVOA (16th) but pretty trashy as road underdogs against QBs who aren’t at or near the bottom of the salary range:
Monitor Tomth Brader’s knee injury on the FantasyLabs News feed, but expect him to play. The Patriots are averaging 30.3 PPG with Brady, who is the QB3 on the season with 25.26 DK and 23.54 FD PPG.
He has a 69 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where we’re projecting him to be owned at nine to 12 percent.
Andrew Luck ($7,300 DK, $8,100 FD): On the one hand, the Colts are implied to score 25.25 points against the Jets, who have a pass-friendly funnel defense ranking 29th in pass DVOA and third in rush DVOA.
On the other hand, the Jets have actually been pretty decent against QBs in New York:
Of course, these five road QBs have been Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, and one-legged Russ and Tom, so . . .
Matt Ryan ($6,800 DK, $8,600 FD): Ryan is the QB4 on the season with 24.01 DK and 22.46 FD PPG. The Falcons are first in the NFL with 32.5 PPG, and at home they’ve been especially good this year on offense:
The Falcons are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Chiefs, who are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points in the league to QBs: 20.8 DK and 19.5 FD PPG.
The Chiefs have been especially bad this year when playing against QBs who are home favorites:
And yet . . .
. . . with Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator for the last two years, Ryan has been surprisingly mediocre as a home favorite — and when we remove division games from the sample it gets pretty ugly:
Ryan probably won’t be horrible — and he’s projected to be owned at only two to four percent, so he has something of a built-in buffer — but caution is warranted.
Derek Carr ($6,500 DK, $8,100 FD): The Raiders are fifth in the NFL with 27.9 PPG, and they’re three-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Bills, who are 19th in pass DVOA.
Since breaking out last year, Carr has been immaculate as a home favorite:
He’s projected at only two to four percent ownership.
Matthew Stafford ($7,000 DK, $8,300 FD): Ever since the Saints started giving up a sh*tload of points to opposing teams in 2014, they’ve been very bad at home against QBs with salaries comparable to Stafford’s:
If ever there were a QB built to produce as a road underdog in a high-scoring game, it’s Stafford, who’s had success in similar situations over his 20 games with Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator:
The Lions are six-point road underdogs implied to score 24 points against the Saints, who are allowing opposing teams to score 27.9 PPG and defensively are 25th in pass DVOA.
He has slate-high ownership projections of 17-20 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD.
The Super Models
This week, there are three QBs (currently) at the top of our Pro Models:
• Aaron Rodgers: $6,700 DK, $8,500 FD
• Carson Palmer: $6,000 DK, $7,000 FD
• Matt Barkley: $5,000 DK, $6,000 FD
Bang a gong.
The Best Offense Is a Good Defense No Running Back
In Week 12, the Packers scored the season’s first offensive TD that Rodgers didn’t either throw or carry into the end zone. That’s unreal.
In the six games that RB Eddie Lacy has been on the Injured Reserve, Rodgers has been dominant:
The Packers are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Texans. On the one hand, it’s an advantageous spot because the Packers are at home with a high total. On the other hand, the Texans are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs: 15.7 DK and 15.4 FD PPG.
That’s somewhat worrisome, but Rodgers is averaging 44.7 pass attempts per game over the last six weeks. As long as the Packers keep on throwing — and there’s no reason to believe that they won’t — Rodgers always has a good chance to reach his salary-based expectations.
To quote Britney Spears . . .
Rodgers is projected with nine to 12 percent ownership and ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated DK QB in all of our Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek.
WTF?
Palmer is currently the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models. What’s going on here?
Basically, he’s cheap. He’s the same price as Smith and Fitz and more expensive than just a few QBs (who really don’t need to be named).
And his situation also isn’t horrible. The Cardinals are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Redskins, who are a middle-of-the-road 18th in pass DVOA. At home against non-division teams, Palmer has done well this year . . .
. . . and other FD QBs with comparable salaries and situations have returned value a high percentage of the time:
Palmer has a Bargain Rating of 69 percent and an ownership projection of two to four percent.
One Week Later . . .
On last week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, GOAT guest David Kitchen went full contrarian by talking about a Barkley-Cam Meredith stack. We all laughed, but podcast regular Adam Levitan especially thought the call was ridiculous.
One week later, Barkley is the highest-rated FD QB in the Levitan Model. I pointed that out to Levitan, and he said, “Feel better about him than Smith tbh.”
Barkley was certainly great last week, but here’s something to keep in mind: That performance was at home against a Titans defense that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to QBs over the last two months. Let’s hold off on declaring Barkley the heir to ‘starter’ Jay Cutler‘s throne of mediocrity. Of course, Barkley did throw two INTs in a loss, so maybe he is the next Cutler after all.
At the same time, the Bears are at home once again this week, and they’re playing against the 49ers, who defensively are 24th in pass DVOA and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs: 21.5 DK and 20.4 FD PPG.
The 49ers also ‘lead’ the league with 2.4 TDs passing per game allowed to QBs and 31.3 PPG allowed to opposing teams.
We’re projecting Barkley to have zero to one percent ownership.
As President-elect Trump put it when talking to minority voters, “What the hell do you have to lose?”
The Coda
For some reason, it actually matters where Blake Bortles ($5,000 DK, $7,100 FD) plays when he’s an underdog.
Since breaking out last year, he’s a GOAT as a road underdog . . .
. . . but he’s the WOAT when he’s a home dog:
In case you were wondering: A Consistency Rating of 25 percent isn’t good.
The Jaguars are five-point home underdogs implied to score only 18 points against the Broncos, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points in the NFL to QBs: 14.1 DK and 13.6 FD PPG.
If we could project him for sub-zero ownership, we would.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
