The Week 12 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 12 Tight Ends
Last week, Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman asked the question: “Do we really need a TE Breakdown?”
Apparently the answer is, “Yes,” because he asked me to write one.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk?
I advocate Gronking whenever humanly possible. If you ain’t Gronking you ain’t living.
That said, my man has a punctured lung, hole in, preforated, pneumothorax . . . f*ck it. Dude has a chest injury. And this is the New England Patriots. No matter what the actual injury to Rob Gronkowski may be, he will be listed as limited in practice and questionable on the injury report right up until sometime before a late kickoff on Sunday.
Gronk is too risky to play on FanDuel with a 4:25 kickoff, but if the Patriots throw a curveball and Gronkowski does suit up this week he’s likely to be a low-owned play with upside for guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
Gronkowski has traditionally outperformed his salary-based expectations in divisional road games with excellent Consistency (per our Trends tool):
That said, we really have no way of knowing what’s going on with his injury or how limited he’ll be if he plays. Monitor his situation via the FantasyLabs News feed.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, Freedman is I’m throwing me the ball.
Speaking of Gronk . . .
Martellus Bennett ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD): A week after being owned at nearly 40 percent and laying a 2.4-point egg on DK, Marty is back with the site’s second-highest projected ceiling (23.4). By the way, did you know that our floor and ceiling projections have been updated and improved? Bennett is projected at just two to four percent ownership on both sites and is an excellent play in GPPs. Keep in mind that he has been more productive this season with Gronk than without. Per RotoViz:
Delanie Walker ($4,900 DK, $6,100 FD): Delanie is currently the second-rated TE in the CSURAM88 Player Model for FD, where he has a top-five projection and a 91 percent Bargain Rating. Walker has averaged 7.8 targets per game over the past five games and is basically the primary receiver in a Titans offense devoid of a true No. 1 WR (unless you count Rishard Matthews, who also has ‘only’ 7.8 targets per game over the last five games). Walker has the fifth-most targets (68) among TEs this season despite missing a game.
Will Tye ($3,000 DK, $4,600 FD): Tye gets the juiciest matchup of the non-Thanksgiving day slate: Cleveland ranks 30th in pass defense against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Browns have allowed a league-high 19.8 DK and 15.6 FD points to the position. Since taking over full-time TE duties, Tye has piled up 20 targets in three games.
Dennis Pitta ($3,200 DK, $4,900 FD): Only Greg Olsen has been targeted more than Pitta (71) at the TE position this season. Pitta also gets the added benefit of facing the team that is 28th in pass DVOA against TEs. As Freedman pointed out a couple of weeks ago, “Most people don’t really think of the Bengals as sucking against TEs, but suck they do.” Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most receptions (58), receiving yards (712), and touchdowns (six) to TEs in 2016. Along the way they have given up the third-most DK points (16.8) and second-most FD points (13.6) to the position. Pitta has a projected ownership of two to four and zero to one percent on DK and FD.
Lance Kendricks ($3,000 DK, $4,800 FD): He’s averaged 7.6 targets per game over his past five games, and he’s second on the Rams with 19.11 percent of the team’s targets over the past four games (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report):
Additionally, he has the privilege of playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football. The Saints defense ranks 25th in pass DVOA against TEs and has the dubious distinction of having allowed more than 11 points each to dudes named Ed Dickson and Garrett Celek this season.
Antonio Gates ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD): Gates has been targeted at least nine times per game and scored three touchdowns in his last four games. The Texans are third in pass DVOA against TEs, holding TEs to only 9.2 DK and 7.1 FD PPG. It’s not a great matchup.
Travis Kelce ($4,000 DK, $6,300 FD): He’s the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales Model, but he’s also facing a Denver defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA against TEs this season. Other than getting flamed by Hunter Henry (20.3 DK points) in early October, the Broncos have held opposing TEs in check. Kelce has FantasyLabs ownership projections of just two to four percent as well as a slate-high nine Pro Trends on DK.
Gary Barnidge ($3,600 DK, $4,800): The Giants have given up big games to Zach Miller, Tyler Eifert, and Zach Ertz over the past three weeks and have allowed an average of 92 receiving yards to TEs the past four weeks, so Barnidge has to be licking his chops. An added bonus: Gary will have quarterback Josh McCown throwing him the ball, and Barnidge has historically done well with McCown:
Cameron Brate ($3,100 DK, $5,400 FD): Brate is the N0. 2 TE in the Bales Model for DK, where he has a 92 percent Bargain Rating and a projected ownership of two to four percent. Seattle is slightly below average against TEs this season (21st against TE in pass DVOA) . . . but safety Earl Thomas did hit Gronk so hard two weeks ago that he punctured his lung (allegedly). Brate has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games.
Julius Thomas ($3,000 DK, $5,500 FD): I’m old enough to remember when Julius was good. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest receptions (41) to TEs this season. Be that as it may, the man formerly known as “Orange Julius” is mildly intriguing on DK, where he’s dirt cheap and the third-rated TE in the Levitanimal Player Model.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD): He’s been targeted an average of 7.3 times per game over the past six games. He doesn’t have an exceptional matchup, as the Chargers are 14th in pass DVOA against the position.
Jimmy Graham ($5,300 DK, $6,900 FD): Graham has a tough matchup with the Buccaneers, who are fifth against TEs in pass DVOA, but his 19.3-point projected ceiling on FD is the second-highest mark of the slate.
Tyler Eifert ($5,600, $6,400 FD): Eifert theoretically should see more targets with WR A.J. Green out. This week may not be the best week to test that theory: Baltimore has allowed the fourth-fewest yards (340) and only one touchdown to TEs this season. The Ravens are first in pass DVOA against TEs.
Jared Cook ($2,500 DK, $4,600 FD): Shhhhh!
The Coda
Greg Olsen ($5,800 DK, $7,000 FD): Olsen is the No. 1 TE in five of our six Player Models for FD, where he has a 91 percent Bargain Rating. He leads the NFL in targets among TEs and is facing a defense allowing the seventh-most targets to the position this season.
Despite having the position’s highest projected floor and ceiling on both sites, Olsen is projected for not even five percent ownership in the Millionaire Maker and Sunday Million, where you should feast upon him like a leftover turkey in your fridge.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks: By Matthew Freedman
• Running Backs: By Ian Hartitz
• Wide Receivers: By Bryan Mears
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
