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Week 12: Yet again the Pittsburgh Steelers are left off DraftKings’ main slate. Get used to it.
It’s a weird week given the number of potentially lopsided games: There are a whopping five double-digit favorites, and three of those could be at two touchdowns or more come game time. It’s only the 19th time since 2005 there has been a week with five or more games with a double-digit spread. Starting running backs (using a projection of 10-plus DraftKings points as a proxy for this) have historically been better as a favorite than a dog, averaging over a full DraftKings point more and a higher average Plus/Minus. Double-digit favorites? Well, they’ve been quite valuable:
The Fanciful Five
Interestingly enough, no guys at the top of the pricing tier are in the group discussed above. In fact, only Gurley and Fournette are favorites among this “fanciful five.” Still, they’ll likely be popular.
- Todd Gurley ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- LeSean McCoy ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
- Mark Ingram ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Leonard Fournette ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Bang a gong.
The Best Running Back in Los Angeles
Gurley is DraftKings’ highest-priced running back, and he’s in a peculiar spot. On one hand, he’s had an excellent season, ranking first with 1,216 yards from scrimmage and 11 rushing/receiving touchdowns. He’s a big reason why the Rams own a top-10 offense in DVOA after ranking dead last a season ago. He’s an absolute market share monster, getting 100 percent of the Rams’ rushes in Week 11 and ranking second in the entire league with nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks. He’s also a big part of LA’s passing game, getting 16.8 percent of Jared Goff‘s targets over that same time frame. There’s a reason his projected floor of 12.0 DraftKings points is at least one point higher than the mark of any other non-QB in the entire slate.
On the other hand, Gurley has a tough matchup against a New Orleans Saints team that is much improved defensively this season, ranking eighth in DVOA. But they have something of a funnel defense, as they rank fourth against the pass but only 26th against the run. Gurley does own a slate-low -4.6 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but that’s likely more due to the fact that the Saints have been up so much lately. The five running backs who have been favored against the Saints this year have actually been quite valuable as DFS assets:
Gurley and the Rams are currently 2.5-point home favorites.
I Just Watched Five First-Half Interceptions
Any time you can bench your decent starting quarterback to trot out an unproven fifth-round pick against a LA Chargers team that features two elite pass-rushers and ranks seventh in pass DVOA, you have to do it. Thankfully for Shady, the Nathan Peterman experiment ended after just one half and five interceptions. Despite the worst-case scenario game script, McCoy still ended up with 28.6 DraftKings points thanks to an impressive 13-114-1 rushing line and an additional touchdown through the air. In Week 12 he gets Tyrod Taylor back behind center and faces a Kansas City team that ranks 25th in defensive DVOA this season. Sure, the Bills are large 10-point underdogs on the road, but Shady showed he can still produce even in bad spots.
McCoy, like most of the high-priced options, dominates the touches in his backfield. He owns more than 10 percent of the Bills’ targets, and he ranks fifth in the NFL with 80 percent of his team’s rushes over the past four games. In general, these workhorse running backs are more valuable on FanDuel: Every RB priced over $6,200 on DraftKings has a one percent Bargain Rating.
As a rule, it makes more sense especially this week to pay up for running backs on FanDuel than DraftKings.
The Saints March in Pairs
The Saints RB duo has been a revelation this season, and they’re now both priced as top-seven options in the main slate. In terms of cumulative DraftKings Plus/Minus on the year, they’ve literally been the most valuable DFS assets in the league:
Touch-wise, Ingram gets the heavier share of rushes, owning a 55.5 percent market share over the past four games versus Kamara’s 31.9 percent. The latter is a beast in the passing game, owning 20.5 percent of Drew Brees‘ targets over the same time period. They’re both end zone monsters with eight and seven TDs on the year, respectively, and they lead the Saints with five opportunities a piece inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. Given how good this offense is and how involved they are, they’re both in play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on a weekly basis. Given the matchup and their status as slight road dogs against the Rams, it is certainly fine to be heavier on Kamara, who is one of the least game-script-dependent backs in the league at this point. All that said, this is a tough matchup, and they’re both projected to be chalky at 21-25 percent ownership on DraftKings.
As a quick plug for my Week 12 funnel defense ratings piece, this game had the lowest combined pass funnel rating among all games despite having a week-high 53-point Vegas total. The Saints and Rams both have excellent pass defenses but can be exploited against the run. It’s likely the trio of Ingram, Kamara, and Gurley all see heavy, fantasy-friendly loads.
JAG
Fournette has really struggled of late . . .
… although he has been dealing with a nagging ankle injury. He looked better in Week 11 and only missed value because he didn’t get into the end zone against the Browns: He had a serviceable 28-111-0 rushing line and added three targets. Few RBs can rival his 30-plus-touch ceiling, and he should have a manageable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed starting RBs to score 2.7 DraftKings points over salary-based expectations on the year. Fournette has crushed on the road this year, averaging 25.03 DraftKings PPG and a +8.4 Plus/Minus in four instances. He will likely be the contrarian option of the group — he’s currently projected for just 13-16 percent ownership — especially since he’s only $100 more than Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, who is one of the ‘Model RBs,’ and looks to be the chalk play of the week against a reeling Bills team. Fournette outscoring Hunt — which certainly isn’t a ridiculous proposition — is how GPPs are won.
Up the Gut
Carlos Hyde ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): He’s averaging a robust 4.8 yards per attempt this season, and he’s averaged a +2.31 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 starts. Hyde has played well against the Seahawks the past two years, averaging 20.4 fantasy points and a +10.69 Plus/Minus. He’s an underdog, but that’s not a huge deal considering he leads the 49ers with a 20.8 percent target share over his past four games.
Jay Ajayi ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): I’m only including him in this breakdown to protect you (and then have you flood my mentions when he goes off). Last week, here’s how the RB market share broke down:
- Blount: 48.2 percent
- Ajayi: 25.9 percent
- Clement: 22.2 percent
- Barner: 3.7 percent
Sure, the Eagles crushed the Cowboys, but Ajayi didn’t even get heavy work when it was close.
First-half RB snaps:
Blount 14
Clement 8
Ajayi 4
Barner 2— Bo Wulf (@Bo_Wulf) November 20, 2017
Christian McCaffrey ($6,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): The Panthers’ first-round pick may not deserve to be the focus of the offense in his first season, but here we are. Over the past four weeks, McCaffrey leads the team with a 23.8 percent target share. The Panthers are coming off a bye and get a Jets squad that ranks 23rd overall defending RBs in the pass game.
Jordan Howard ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Among low-owned RBs for GPPs, people don’t focus enough on if-then statements. DFS users typically consider only the first part of analysis, such as “this RB is a large underdog and thus likely to see negative game script.” Sure, that’s fine analysis, but what is more compelling is what we get from a running back if something weird happens — if we see a black swan. Is that player going to suddenly see a huge amount of touches? Or is their ceiling cap no matter what? Howard is a good example of someone who likely will have a negative game script — and he isn’t a guy you want in that situation — but he also has massive upside if the Bears get up. He’s second in the NFL with 192 rushing attempts, and he has legitimate 30-plus-touch upside in that regard. So what are the odds the Bears can get a lead against the red-hot Eagles? Not great. But what are the chances you can win a GPP? Now we’re talking.
DeMarco Murray ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): He had a two-touchdown game just two weeks ago and now faces a Colts squad that ranks 26th in defensive DVOA. That said, the time share is hard to deal with:
Dion Lewis ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): I’ll discuss two more Patriots RBs below, but can you blame me? I mean, they’re currently implied to score 32.3 freaking points against the Miami Dolphins. Lewis turned his 14 touches in Week 11 into 16.8 DraftKings points and should see double-digit carries again as a stupid 16.5-point favorites versus the Dolphins.
Adrian Peterson ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): On the one hand, he leads the entire NFL with a 94.3 percent rushing share over the past four games. On the other hand, he’s perhaps the most game-script dependent back in the league and stands as a five-point dog versus an elite Jaguars defense.
Duke Johnson ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): He leads the Browns with 60 targets this season. I’m not sure what that means.
Devontae Booker ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): He got 20 opportunities last week against the Bengals. I’m not sure what that means either, but I’m certainly intrigued to find out, especially because he’s almost minimum price on DraftKings and he’s facing an Oakland Raiders team that ranks dead last in defensive DVOA.
The Model Running Backs
Besides Bell, there are three other running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Le’Veon Bell ($9,400 FanDuel)
- Kareem Hunt ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Tevin Coleman ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
- Rex Burkhead ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
- J.D. McKissic ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
Not much needs to be said about Le’Veon. He’s the highest-priced option on FanDuel, where he’s actually available in the main slate. Even if you don’t typically play there, he’s probably worth looking into it. He continues to be the best running back in football, leading the NFL with 886 rushing yards, 232 rushing attempts, and 281 total touches. He’s a market share monster in every way, ranking second with an 88.3 percent rushing market share rate over the past four games, while also grabbing 17.7 percent of his team’s targets. Bell is also the only player in the NFL with double-digit opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. He’s a 14.5-point home favorite against Green Bay; I’d run a trend on him as a favorite that big, but it hasn’t happened in our database. We do know that as a home favorite against a non-division rival, he’s averaged over 20.0 FanDuel points and a +4.18 Plus/Minus. Yup.
The stud in both slates we need to discuss is Hunt, who was the uber chalk in Week 11, getting up to 35.9 percent ownership in the DraftKings Milly Maker. He disappointed DFS users, scoring just 10.7 fantasy points in a dream spot against a Giants squad that ranks 28th in defensive DVOA; the game was projected to have heavy sustained winds that should have put the Chiefs into a run-heavy game script. It was a brutal game to stomach, and it unfortunately continued a concerning trend of subpar fantasy production from the rookie RB:
Now that I’ve described the ledge so much, let me talk you off it.
Hunt is definitely not lacking for opportunities. He ranks fourth in the entire league with 81.7 percent of his team’s carries over the past four weeks, and he owns 13.1 percent of Alex Smith‘s targets over that time frame. He got 22 touches in last week’s game, and the real reason he hasn’t hit value of late is a lack of touchdowns: He hasn’t gotten into the end zone in eight games. How does a date with a Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns sound? And when I said “league-high,” I likely undersold it: Only two teams have allowed more than 10 touchdowns on the ground — the Lions (12) and Bills (16). Buffalo ranks 31st in rush DVOA for a reason, and they’ve also allowed a slate-high +1.7 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel to RBs over the past year. Hunt is a terrifying fade this week and should be one of the most popular options. He’s especially valuable on FanDuel, where he dominates the slate with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and an absurd 15 Pro Trends.
Coleman claims a top spot in each of our Pro Models for FanDuel, likely because of his massive, slate-high +7.31 Projected Plus/Minus there. With backfield mate Devonta Freeman slated to miss Week 12 with a concussion, Coleman is obviously an excellent value again at his $6,200 price tag. There was no doubt he was the guy in Atlanta sans Freeman in Week 11, as he received 74.1 percent of the Falcons’ rushes against the Seahawks. He was incredibly inefficient in that game, accumulating just 43 rushing yards on 20 attempts, but the volume is the most important thing here. He gets a much easier matchup against a Tampa Bay Bucs squad that ranks 27th in total defensive DVOA. Coleman has been incredibly consistent this season, averaging a +2.18 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. He qualifies for the trend at the beginning of the piece as a double-digit favorite.
To end, let’s quickly touch on the cheap running backs who stand out within our Pro Models for DraftKings, who offers full PPR scoring. Burkhead was identified as a potential cheap value play for cash games last week, and he barely hit value, scoring only 7.7 DraftKings points on 11 total opportunities. That’s obviously not great, but he did receive six targets and faces a Miami Dolphins team that is one of the strongest pass funnel defenses in the league, posting a terrible 42.8 percent pass defense DVOA while merely rating average against the run. If production gets funneled toward the pass-catching RBs, he and James White could have solid outings. McKissic is a similar play, and he got up to 50 offensive snaps last week after not playing more than 23 in any other game. He also got six targets in Week 11, and he’s even cheaper at $3,700; he comes with a 89 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, along with a +0.5 Opponent Plus/Minus. He faces the fast-paced San Francisco 49ers, who rank 31st against RBs in the passing game. At almost minimum price, all of these RBs are likely to be somewhat popular low-ceiling punt plays for cash games.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
