The Week 12 NFL Dashboard
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Week 12: Running Backs
Breaking: @MattFtheOracle is working on other stuff and I’m here to talk running backs. That means a few things:
• I don’t have to write about Brock Osweiler this week. That is good news for mostly me but probably you as well.
• We’re going to limit this piece to two GIFs, one Star Wars reference, and zero unprovoked shots at Tavon Austin.
• Volume is still everything.
Great. Let’s talk RB pricing.
RB Pricing
RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel. Out of the top-15 most expensive RBs this week, 14 are better bargains on FanDuel. Todd Gurley isn’t, but he also isn’t averaging over 3.2 yards per carry this season. Relevant or not, that’s just sad.
Anyway, only three RBs priced over $4,500 on DK are better bargains on DK: Gurley, Carlos Hyde, and Jonathan Stewart. It’s not a coincidence that those RBs are all essentially non-threats in the receiving game, so they’re cheaper on DK. Gurley was a receiving threat at one point, but then Benny Cunningham got healthy. You read that last sentence correctly.
The Big Four Five
Personally, I hate grouping things into four instead of five. Groups of four are reserved for Mount Rushmore and The Beatles. Also, Shady McCoy is the fourth-most expensive RB on DK this week but the fifth-most expensive on FD.
Per our Trends tool, the five most-expensive RBs on DK and FD have absolutely dominated through 11 weeks:
FD RBs have been more consistent and have had a higher Plus/Minus. DK RBs have had a higher ownership percentage but have scored more raw DK points. Again: RBs are mostly cheaper on FD than DK, but you’re getting that full-PPR bonus on DK. Without further ado, Week 12’s Big Five:
• David Johnson: $8,900 DK (RB1), $9,500 FD (RB1)
• DeMarco Murray: $7,700 DK (RB2), $8,300 FD (RB3)
• Jay Ajayi: $7,600 DK (RB3), $8,400 FD (RB2)
• LeSean McCoy: $7,300 DK (RB4), $8,100 FD (RB5)
• Melvin Gordon: $7,000 DK (RB5), $8,200 FD (RB4)
A quick glance at this group tells us a few things:
- Johnson is the clear leader of the pack, costing $1,200 more than the next expensive RB on both DK and FD.
- Ajayi is the only RB in the group that doesn’t offer a ton of receiving upside, but he’s playing the 49ers.
- Shady is more expensive this week than last week. His thumb is fine.
Now for the beasts.
The David Johnson Experience
Remember: Volume is everything.
Per playerprofiler.com, Johnson has more volume than any RB in the league with just two capital letters in their name. He didn’t have more than 20 carries in a single game during the first four weeks of the season, but then coach Bruce Arians realized that Carson Palmer sucks now. Since Week 5, Johnson has had 20-plus carries in four of his six games. Also, he’s averaged 8.66 targets per game over his past six games, compared to 5.25 targets per game during the first four weeks of the season.
When you have Ladainian Tomlinson 2.0, you should probably give him the ball as often as possible.
Still, it’s not Johnson’s volume that is so impressive, but what he does after he gets the ball. Johnson is currently first among all RBs with 7.4 evaded tackles per game, but he’s also averaging a strong 2.6 yards after contact per carry. Put simply: Johnson is making guys miss and also powering through contact to pick up extra yards.
Over his past five games, Johnson has faced the Vikings, 49ers, Panthers, Seahawks, and Jets. Four out of those five teams boast good-to-great run defenses. This brings us to the Falcons, who do not have a good-to-great run defense. In fact, they’re pretty terrible: The Falcons are ranked 26th in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the run this season and have allowed the fifth-most average fantasy points per game to RBs, per fantasydata.com. Sure enough, this has resulted in a ton of success for opposing RBs priced over $5,000 on DK:
As our Trends tool shows, RBs priced over $5,000 on DK have posted a +7.15 Plus/Minus with 83.3 percent Consistency and have averaged 21.33 DK points. Those six RBs to qualify are Gordon, Christine Michael, C.J. Anderson, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray, and Doug Martin. It’s fair to say that Johnson will be the best RB the Falcons have faced all season.
The catch: Johnson leads all RBs with 31-40 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on both DK and FD. May the chalk be with you.
De’Merican Pharoah
Murray has been a workhorse this season. He’s had fewer than 20 touches just twice since Week 2 and both instances were simply the result of the Titans beating the sh*t out of the Jaguars and Packers by halftime. Murray will look to keep things rolling during his last game with Mustache Mariota under center, as he’s historically thrived as a road favorite:
The Titans have never been a road favorite with Mariota under center, but Murray thrived in this scenario during his time in Dallas and Philadelphia. The reasons why we should feel comfortable with this trend continuing:
• The Titans have called the fourth-most run plays in the league this season. About the only thing that could stop them from pounding the rock would be if they’re forced to play from behind. They’re facing a Bears offense that will feature Matt Barkley under center. Barkley has thrown zero touchdowns and six interceptions on his 65 career pass attempts.
• The Bears have been very good against RBs this season. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and have limited RBs to 1.5 DK points below salary-based expectations over the past 12 months. A large part of this success can be credited to Jerrell Freeman, PFF’s second-highest graded linebacker this season. Freeman will miss the next four games with a PED suspension.
• Murray hasn’t been held under 12.5 DK points this season and has exceeded his salary-based expectation in nine out of his 11 games.
Oh, and Murray has averaged 155 total yards and 23.47 PPR points during his three career games against the Bears.
The New Kid
Ajayi is a rare breed. Not only is he capable of gaining extra yards after contact, but he’s also broken off big runs at a higher rate than most RBs this season. Per PFF, Ajayi is averaging 3.6 YAC per carry – the highest mark among all RBs with at least 50 carries this season. Additionally, 7.7 percent of his runs have gone for 15-plus yards — a mark that ranks among the top-12 RBs through 11 weeks.
Still, Ajayi hasn’t looked like this explosive bowling ball over the past three weeks:
We can’t expect Ajayi to rush for 200 yards every week, but his average of 15.13 DK points over the past three weeks puts him more on par with Lamar Miller than Ezekiel Elliott.
The good news is that few defenses are more capable of making good running backs look great than the 49ers:
While the above numbers are solid, the 17.9 percent ownership is a red flag. Sure enough, Ajayi is behind only David Johnson this week in terms of FantasyLabs projected ownership.
As we discussed earlier, the only downside for Ajayi is his limited impact out of the backfield. He hasn’t gained more than 20 receiving yards in a game since Week 2 and has two or fewer targets in six of his nine games this season.
With that said, Ajayi has a real chance at being the RB1 this week against a 49ers defense that ranks dead least in DVOA against the run and allows their opponents to run a league-high 71.6 plays per game, per teamrankings.com. The 49ers have allowed five FD points above salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months.
The Real Slim Shady
Shady is past his hamstring issue, but he dislocated his thumb during the Bills’ Week 11 win over the Bengals. He’s practiced all week and is fully expected to play Sunday against the Jaguars.
Shady has been matchup-proof this season. He’s arguably regained his status as the most explosive back in the league, as he’s averaged a league-high 1.4 rushes of 15-plus yards per game this season. Shady is the biggest reason why the Bills are averaging a league-high 5.3 yards per carry through 11 weeks.
This week, he has a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that is 28th in DVOA against the run. Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara have formed a solid cornerback duo, but the front seven is still a work in progress . . . for the most part.
Per sharpfootballstats.com, we see that the Jaguars have been gashed on runs to the right, but they’ve held up pretty well when offenses have run to their left. This sets them up nicely for a matchup against Shady, who has had far more success running to his left this season:
Not only has Shady struggled to run to his right this season, but he also dislocated his left thumb, meaning he’ll be running to his left with the ball tucked under the wrong arm. He’s had more success to his left in large part due to the play of left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito, PFF’s 13th- and 20th-highest graded players at their position this season.
The Bills have called the second-most run plays in the league this season. Shady is virtually guaranteed for 20-plus touches barring an injury. It’s a good matchup, but keep in mind the Jaguars are better equipped than most bad run defenses to take away what the Bills and Shady do best.
Best of the Rest
Tevin Coleman ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD) and Devonta Freeman ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD): Coleman hasn’t played since Week 7 but is fully recovered and good to go for the Falcons’ Week 12 matchup against the Cardinals.
Prior to Coleman being injured, Freeman was the team’s bell-cow back, while Coleman was the more efficient receiver. Overall, Coleman averaged 11.14 touches compared to 18.14 for Freeman, although Coleman’s average of 1.34 fantasy points per opportunity far surpasses Freeman’s average of 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity.
Both backs have a tough matchup against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 2.7 FD points below salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months.
Spencer Ware ($6,100 DK, $7,000 FD): Charcandrick West is expected to miss this game with a concussion, so Ware will be the undisputed feature back for the Chiefs’ matchup against the Broncos. After a strong start to the season, Ware has faded in recent weeks:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, we see that Ware has averaged 5.8 fewer PPR points per game during the second half of his season. Part of the issue is his workload, as Ware is averaging over 1.5 fewer targets and 2.1 fewer rush attempts per game over his past four games.
The other part of the problem could be due to the Chiefs’ non-existent aerial attack without Jeremy Maclin in the lineup:
Maclin has missed the Chiefs’ last two games against the Panthers and Buccaneers, and Ware has gained just 157 yards and zero touchdowns on his 35 touches over that span.
Ware is the highest-rated FD RB in our Bales Model, but he falls to fifth in our Levitan Model. As the bell-cow back against a Broncos defense that has allowed the eighth-most average fantasy points to RBs this season, the upside is certainly there for Ware to swing a GPP. Still, he hasn’t had more than three targets in a game since Week 4 and is a risky cash play, especially against a Denver defense that is fresh off of a bye week and will be welcoming back CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe – PFF’s 22nd-highest graded interior defender against the run this season.
LeGarrette Blount ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Tom Brady has now been back for six games and the Patriots haven’t stopped feeding Blount. He’s averaged 18.33 carries per game over his past six games but has a tough matchup against a Jets defense that ranks second in DVOA against the run this season.
Also, Blount received 19 carries last week in Dion Lewis‘ first game back, but last season Blount averaged 4.16 fewer rush attempts per game during his six games with Lewis active.
Todd Gurley ($5,700 DK, $7,500 FD): Gurley ripped off his first run of 20-plus yards last week and now will travel to NOLA to take on the Saints. While the Saints defense has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league this season, opponents have rushed for just 3.9 yards per carry. It’s tough to say if the Gurley that ran for 125-plus yards in four of his first five career games will ever be back, but he has a good shot at finding the end zone against the league’s third-worst scoring defense. Even if you don’t trust him, he’s a contrarian play this week, as his two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is the lowest mark among all RBs priced over $7,000 on FD.
Thomas Rawls ($5,700 DK, $7,000 FD): C.J. Prosise will miss the remainder of the season with a fractured scapula, so Rawls will be the Seahawks’ featured back for their matchup against the Buccaneers. Rawls has excelled over the past two seasons when given a featured role in the offense:
His 19.15 PPR points is solid enough, but what’s truly impressive is his average of 5.65 yards per carry. High efficiency with high volume is rare, although Rawls will need to overcome a Buccaneers defense that has done a great job at limiting RBs this season:
RBs priced over $5,000 on DK have posted a -2.05 Plus/Minus with 12.5 percent Consistency and have averaged just 12.59 DK points against the Buccaneers through 11 weeks.
Rashad Jennings ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): Jennings has seemingly regained his role as the Giants’ featured back, as he’s had 18 and 26 touches over his past two games. Meanwhile, after racking up 14 touches in Week 9, Paul Perkins has just nine and six touches over the past two weeks.
The Browns have allowed the second-most average fantasy points per game to RBs this season and have allowed 2.8 DK points above salary-based expectations over the past 12 months to the position.
Every RB who plays the Browns knows they have an opportunity to do something special. Few events can compare — maybe just one:
Lamar Miller ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): Miller was limited in practice this week with an ankle and rib injury but is fully expected to be good to go for the Texans’ Week 12 matchup against the Chargers. He’s looked more explosive in recent weeks and has found the end zone four times in his last five games. Overall, Miller has posted a +4.17 Plus/Minus with 60 percent Consistency and has averaged 18.08 DraftKings points over his past five games.
Mark Ingram ($5,000 DK, $6,000 FD): Ingram is in the concussion protocol but is expected to be good to go for the Saints’ matchup against the Rams. Since being pushed into a committee by Tim Hightower, Ingram has averaged 15 touches during his two full games compared to 17 touches for Hightower.
The problem: The Rams defense has allowed 2.3 DK and 1.7 FD points below salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months.
Terrance West ($4,000 DK, $6,300 FD): There’s been a lot of chatter in recent weeks about Kenneth Dixon gaining a larger role in the offense, but he’s been limited to just six carries in each of the last two weeks despite averaging a strong 6.5 yards per carry. West, on the other hand, has averaged 15.5 touches over the past two weeks and has seven carries inside the five-yard line. Dixon has zero.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks: By Matthew Freedman
• Wide Receivers: By Bryan Mears
• Tight Ends: By Kelly McCann
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
