The Week 12 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns, visit our NFL dashboard. There are no matchup previews this week because of Thanksgiving, but they will return next week.
Thanksgiving: The Holiday Season Begins
Thanksgiving is the f*cking best because it gives me the opportunity to pound as much pie as I want without people feeling the need to tell me that I’m being gluttonous.
I know that I’m being gluttonous, but . . .
- That’s the point of Thanksgiving.
- I don’t want someone actually telling me that I’m eating like a pig while I’m eating like a pig. That would diminish my enjoyment.
So Thanksgiving is pretty great. I can be my inner fat child without anyone batting an eye.
At the same time, Thanksgiving officially marks the beginning of the holiday season, which is supposed to be awesome but in actuality can be pretty rough.
I have to think about presents I need to buy for people. And then I actually need to buy these presents. And then my wife reminds me that I forgot to get gift cards, and so I have to go out to the store to buy gift cards. And then I have to think of something to write in the gift cards — and then I have to spend time actually writing out that drivel.
And then I need to go through the effort of giving these gifts — and the precious gift cards — to these random people. In some cases, I might even need to see these people — in person! — in order to give them their gifts.
I might even be required to spend hours with them.
I love the holidays — but sometimes I really f*cking hate the holiday season.
This last weekend — before even Thanksgiving! — the town/city where I now live (Cedar Rapids) had a Christmas tree festival, which (of course) my wife made me attend I gladly attended with my best friend and life partner.
There were so many kids at this festival of trees. So many babies. So much noise. So little food and alcohol. That one event was the most effective form of birth control I’ve ever encountered — which . . .
. . . never mind. It’s probably not worth mentioning.
Anyway, I hope that you had a great Thanksgiving. Get ready for the next six weeks:
Let’s get through this.
A Few More Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s QB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers a ton of straight-up stone dopeness in only 10:54.
Moving on . . .
Back to Thanksgiving
Thanks to Ian Hartitz, Bryan Mears, and Kelly McCann for doing this week’s RB, WR, and TE pieces.
Week 12: Quarterbacks
This week I’m going to trim down the analysis even more. I suppose that I don’t need to tell you every stat that I find.
Six Teams off the Slate
Remember that in this slate, even though all 32 teams are playing this week, we will be without the services of GOATs Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and, yes, even Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Scott Tolzien.
Frakking Thanksgiving.
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and many pieces before that, QB salary patterns on DraftKings and FanDuel are very different (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
In general, QBs are relatively cheaper on DK than on FD. For instance, four DK QBs have Bargain Ratings of at least 92 percent. On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 78 percent.
Out of all the players in the slate, five of the 12 FD players with the highest salaries are QBs. On DK, that number is only two. On FD, the QB with the highest salary is the second-most expensive player in the slate; on DK, the fifth-most expensive.
Pay special attention to Bargain Ratings, but in general it’s easier to acquire QB Plus/Minus on DK than FD. As always, arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big Five
The most expensive QBs form a natural cohort. They are also the five QBs in the slate with the most fantasy points per game (PPG) on the season. Per our Trends tool:
These guys have been pretty studly. You know who they are:
• Tom Brady: $7,800 DK (QB1), $9,100 FD (QB1)
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,000 DK (QB4), $8,900 FD (QB2)
• Marcus Mariota: $7,200 DK (QB2), $8,300 FD (QB5)
• Drew Brees: $7,100 DK (QB3), $8,600 FD (QB4)
• Matt Ryan: $6,900 DK (QB5), $8,700 FD (QB3)
Let’s break down these deep-fried turduckens.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
Last week, Tomth Brader passed for only 280 yards and completed only 60 percent of his passes. #Loser is what that guy is.
Through six games, Brady is the QB1/2 on the season with 26.3 DK and 24.3 FD PPG. In five of six games, he has passed for either 300 yards or four touchdowns. He leads the NFL with 10.6 adjusted yards per attempt and an 86.0 Total QBR (per ESPN).
By the way, as I’m writing this article, Elf is playing in the background, my wife is trimming the Christmas tree, and I’m at the kitchen table eating my third breakfast of the day, like . . .
That’s also what Brady’s going to look like this weekend going against the Jets.
This week, the Pats are slate-high 7.5-point road favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26.75 points — the second-highest mark on the slate. The Pats are taking on the Jets, who have an extremely pass-friendly funnel defense, ranking second against the rush and 30th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Although it might seem problematic for Brady to be playing on the road against a divisional rival, he historically has done well taking on the AFC East outside of Foxborough. Over the last decade, he’s basically been his typical Brady self in that situation. Per RotoViz:
With Brady, the Patriots are averaging 31.67 PPG this season.
Brady currently has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
Some people might be concerned, as some of the hooded Sith Lord’s stormtroopers currently have uncertain statuses for this weekend. Tight end Rob Gronkowski (lung) missed last week’s game and might not play this week. TE Martellus Bennett (ankle) and wide receiver Chris Hogan (back) seem to be practicing and playing at less than full capacity.
Be sure to monitor all of these situations on the FantasyLabs News feed.
For what it’s worth, Gronk seems unlikely to play, and if he plays he’ll almost certainly be limited. When Brady has been without Gronk . . .
. . . he hasn’t quite been himself.
“The Cheese is Old and Moldy; Where is the Bathroom?”
Rodgers is the QB2/1 on the season with 25.53 DK and 24.33 FD PPG. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, he leads the Packers with 25.71 percent of the team’s rush attempts over the last four weeks:
Let that sink in, over the last month, Rodgers has basically been his own No. 1 RB.
And last week he was the QB1 with 32.3 DK and 29.3 FD points.
I’ve been saying for about six weeks that what we’re seeing with Rodgers is unreal. On the one hand, I’m right. On the other hand, we’re talking about fantasy f*cking football.
It’s d*mn-near inconceivable that a QB can be as inefficient as Rodgers has been this year and also a top-two fantasy QB. Rodgers is 26th in the NFL with 6.7 yards per attempt. Here are the guys ranked around him:
• Colin Kaepernick (20th)
• Sam Bradford (21st)
• Eli Manning (22nd)
• Trevor Siemian (23rd)
• Alex Smith (24th)
• Case Keenum (25th)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (27th)
• Carson Wentz (28th)
• Tyrod Taylor (29th)
• Joe Flacco (30th)
• Blake Bortles (31st)
• Blaine Gabbert (32nd)
Excuse me for a second . . .
. . . OK, I’m back. I hope I didn’t get any of that on you.
Don’t get me wrong. I love Kaep, Tygod, and Bortles-on-the-road as undervalued daily fantasy sports options — but I don’t think of them as guys to whom I’d want A-Rod to be comparable as a passer.
But the fact is that the Packers are employing such a pass-happy Rodgers-centered offense, it probably doesn’t matter that Rodgers is overperforming (based on some of his career efficiency numbers) or that the Packers are averaging a middle-of-the-road 24.7 PPG.
What matters is that the Packers seem likely to continue to pass the ball an unreal amount and to feature Rodgers.
In the five games this year that running back Eddie Lacy has missed, Rodgers has attempted 45.8 passes and four rushes per game. He’s been a DFS monster:
Here’s the most disgusting statistic on A-Rod that I’ve found: This year, the Packers offense has scored 28 TDs . . . and Rodgers has thrown and rushed all of them.
Let that sink in: We are 11 weeks into the season, and Rodgers has 100 percent of his team’s rushing TDs.
I could point to that fact — and so many others — and say something stupid like, “What Rodgers is doing isn’t sustainable, regression is coming, you need to save yourself,” etc. — but I won’t.
The Packers are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score 21.75 points against the Eagles, who are first in pass DVOA and destroying QBs when they play in Philly:
If you want to smell that cheese on Monday night, sniff all you want. It’s your nose.
Rodgers has a 92 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he’s the highest-rated QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Player Models.
The Maserati
For the first month of the season, Mariota was a sputtering jalopy, averaging -2.83 DK and -3.47 FD Plus/Minus values on 50 percent Consistency.
Since then, however, he’s been the Maserati:
The Titans are 4.5-point road favorites implied to score 23.25 points against the Bears, who are without their starting QB and No. 1 WR. The Titans offense should get some extra opportunities to put up points.
Yeah, he’s $800 more expensive on DK and FD than he was when the season started, and he’s easily the most expensive he’s ever been — but it’s hard to say that Mariota hasn’t earned his salary with his recent play.
He’s projected at only five to eight percent ownership.
Home is Where the Points Are
This week, we have a NO/LA matchup in NOLA, as Brees gets to face a non-division opponent at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, which has been a very positive situation for him as long as Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and now Michael Thomas have been his top receivers:
As long as Brees has been in New Orleans, he’s been at his best when playing at home against non-NFC South opponents:
The Saints are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.5 points against the Rams, who are a non-horrible 12th in pass DVOA, so it’s not a great spot for Brees.
Then again, in his last two home games Brees managed to average 284 yards and two TDs passing against the stout Broncos and Seahawks pass defenses. (He also rushed for a score against Seattle.)
This year, Brees at home has the following finishes:
• Week 1 (OAK): QB2
• Week 3 (ATL): QB4 DK, QB3 FD
• Week 6 (CAR): QB1
• Week 8 (SEA): QB11 DK, QB10 FD
• Week 8 (DEN): QB5 DK, QB8 FD
I mean . . .
. . . does it even matter who Brees is playing at home?
He’s been a stone-cold killer at the Superdome all year.
We’re expecting Brees to be pretty chalky. He’s second at the position with FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13-16 percent.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
It’s not hard to see that Ryan has been one of the best QBs of 2016. Per Player Profiler:
And his production has been especially strong at home this year:
Ryan doesn’t have a great matchup, as the Cardinals are third in pass DVOA, and it’s likely (per our Matchups tool) that stud shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson will spend much of the game defending No. 1 WR Julio Jones — but Ryan is still in an advantageous spot: The Falcons are five-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 27.75 points.
Even though Ryan has led the Falcons to league-high marks of 32 PPG and 6.7 yards per play, he’s projected to have only two to four percent ownership. His matchup with the Cardinals is a big reason for the low ownership projection:
Ryan has +0.75 DK and -1.34 FD Projected Plus/Minus values for Week 12. You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but those numbers suck worse than the Keira Knightley plot line in Love Actually, which coincidentally is the movie my wife is now playing.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Blake Bortles ($5,600 DK, $7,100 FD): This guy is the anti-Brees: He’s absolutely at his best on the road, where he’s always been an underdog. Since his breakout campaign last season . . .
. . . he’s been a road stud. You can say that he’s a horrible QB — and he absolutely is — but . . .
- That doesn’t matter.
- It might decrease his ownership.
- He’s the slate’s DK QB9 and FD QB8 in PPG.
The Jaguars are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points against the Bills, who are 15th in pass DVOA.
Jump on the back of this garbage truck and hang on for dear life.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,900 DK, $7,700 FD): Ever since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Tygod has been heavenly:
Tyrod has been supported by his strong rushing production, as he’s averaged 52 yards and 0.5 TDs on the ground per game since Week 3. That rushing production is partially why he has the second-highest floor projection on DK and FD.
The Bills are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Jaguars, who are surprisingly not horrible against QBs. The Jags defense is 13th in pass DVOA and hasn’t allowed a QB to score 20 fantasy points since Week 2:
Tyrod has a matchup that is deceptively difficult, but he has only two to four percent projected ownership, and he might get back WR Sammy Watkins (foot), who has practiced this week and appears close to returning.
If you want a high floor without needing to pay up at the position, Tyrod might be your guy.
Or this next guy . . .
Colin Kaepernick ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD): Stop acting as if you’re too good for KCCK. Ever since becoming the 49ers’ starting QB in Week 6, Kaep has been a DFS dream:
You might think that Kaep sucks as a passer — and, fine, his 53.1 percent completion rate suggests that he sucks as a passer — but he is averaging 52 rushing YPG. When you add in the random passing (or rushing!) bonuses that he might get on DK as well as the occasional rushing TDs, that’s probably enough to get some of you excited:
The 49ers are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 18.5 points. That total is undeniably low, but the 49ers have averaged only 18.6 PPG in Kaep’s five starts, and he’s still managed to reach his salary-based expectations in each game.
Additionally, the 49ers are playing against the Dolphins, who are fifth in pass DVOA, so Kaep doesn’t have an easy matchup. At the same time, though, the Dolphins are allowing a middle-of-the-road 17.5 DK and 17.0 FD PPG to QBs. The matchup isn’t as daunting as it may seem.
In their two games this year against non-injured running QBs (Mariota and Tyrod), the Dolphins have been exploited:
On DK and FD, Kaep has the fourth-highest QB floor projection.
One more note on Kaep: We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Kaep: He currently has the highest ceiling on FD — but only the eighth-highest ceiling projection on DK. Why? Because of the three-point bonus on DK for 300 passing yards, which our methodology suggests has a better chance of being earned by passers other than Kaep.
Projected at two to four and five to eight percent on DK and FD, Konami Code Colin is an intriguing tournament option, and if you’re looking for a cheap QB who probably won’t destroy your lineups in cash games then he could be your guy.
Eli Manning ($6,500 DK, $7,800 FD): The Browns are bad against QBs, allowing 21.7 DK and 20.5 FD PPG — the fourth-highest marks in the league. And, loosely, Eli is a QB. The Giants are seven-point road favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Browns, who are 31st in pass DVOA.
In the words of the Levitanimal, this is a JV defense.
Brock Osweiler ($5,100 DK, $6,300 FD) and Trevor Siemian ($5,100 DK, $7,300 FD): My dad once told me an old Jewish joke about the difference between a schmuck and a schlemiel. A schmuck is the guy who buys a new Cadillac and then drives it off a cliff.
A schlemiel is the guy it lands on.
Both of these guys are projected for zero to one percent ownership.
Joe Flacco ($5,300 DK, $7,300 FD): In only two games this season has Flacco thrown multiple TDs. Both of those games were against the Browns:
Bad news: Joe’s not playing against the Browns this weekend.
Josh McCown ($5,000 DK, $6,400 FD): QB Cody Kessler (concussion) is out. On the one hand, McCown’s not Kessler, and he’s done well with the Browns over the last two years in the games that he’s actually started and finished:
On the other hand, he’s facing the Giants, who are seventh in pass DVOA and allowing the second-fewest fantasy points in the league to QBs: 14.6 DK and 14.0 FD PPG.
Matt Barkley ($5,000 DK, $6,000 FD): ‘Starter’ Jay Cutler (shoulder) may have a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, and he seems very doubtful to play this weekend. With backup Brian Hoyer (arm) on injured reserve, it looks like the third-string fourth-round fourth-year California kid is going to get his first career start.
So far, he’s turned 65 NFL pass attempts into a 55.4 percent completion rate, zero TDs, six INTs, and 5.9 yards per attempt — but with -3 yards on six career rush attempts he can clearly take a knee with the best of them.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, GOAT guest David Kitchen went full ‘contrarian’ by talking about a Barkley-Cam Meredith stack.
I get it. The Bears are at home, and the Titans have sucked the last six weeks against QBs:
But, seriously, com’on. We’re talking about a QB so bad that not even Chip Kelly was delusional enough to think that he could squeeze anything other than urine out of that lemon.
I appreciate the gin and juice that Kitchen is serving, but . . .
. . . I’d prefer to drink something else.
Jared Goff ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD): Sometimes pop flies turn into home runs at Coors Field: For that one YOLO GPP lineup that somehow keeps you warmer than money going up in flames.
Carson Palmer ($5,300 DK, $7,100 FD): The Falcons are allowing league-high marks of 23.3 DK and 22.2 FD PPG to QBs. We’re projecting Palmer for two to four and zero to one percent ownership on DK and FD. If not now, when? RB David Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald have been known to catch TD passes.
Ryan Tannehill ($5,500 DK, $7,100 FD): Once you get over the fact that Tanny is an irredeemable QB who belongs in Canada, you might appreciate the fact that the 49ers allow a league-high 2.3 passing TDs per game and are total trash against non-division opponents:
This might turn into a Jay Ajayi game — the 49ers defense is dead last in rush DVOA — but it’s hard to ignore Tanny at home against a bad defense when the Dolphins are 7.5-point favorites implied to score 26 points.
The Super Models
This week, there are three non-Rodgers QBs (currently) at the top of our Pro Models:
• Cam Newton: $6,800 DK, $7,800 FD
• Russell Wilson: $6,700 DK, $7,500 FD
• Derek Carr: $6,100 DK, $7,900 FD
Bang a gong.
The Godfather
A Cam who doesn’t steal touchdowns from his running back can never be a real Cam.
I’m happy to say that Cam is back. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Cam has 26.5 percent of the Panthers’ rushes . . .
. . . and he’s managed to steal five carries inside the 10-yard line from RB Jonathan Stewart.
The Panthers are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 23.25 points against the Raiders, who are 24th in pass DVOA and fairly weak against non-division QBs:
It might not seem like a great spot for Cam, but in his career he’s basically done as well when he’s been a road underdog playing outside of his division as he has in all other situations put together:
Cam is available at a steep discount — especially on FD, where he’s the highest-rated QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models — and he’s projected for only two to four percent ownership on both sites.
The Second-Half Savior
For the first three years of his career, Wilson was better in the second half of seasons than in the first half:
The trend held true last year:
And so far . . .
. . . we’re seeing it again this year.
I don’t know if I believe in the predictiveness of a first-/second-half seasonal split — but Wilson has it.
Wilson’s lingering leg injuries from earlier in the year are no longer a concern. If the guy’s healthy enough to catch a 15-yard TD pass, he’s healthy enough to scramble for some extra yards or to maneuver inside the pocket to buy time if he needs to do so.
Wilson is back to killin’.
The Seahawks are six-point road favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Buccaneers, who are allowing 21.2 DK and 19.5 FD PPG to QBs.
Throughout his career, Wilson has done well as a road favorite when playing outside of the division:
He’s expected to be chalky, with a slate-high 17-20 percent ownership projection on FD, where he’s the highest-rated QB in the Levitan Model.
Baby, You Can Drive My Carr
Since emerging last season as a legitimate NFL QB, Carr has started and not been injured in five home games against non-divisional opponents. He’s done pretty well in those games:
Like Wilson on FD, Carr is expected to be chalky on DK, where he has a slate-high 17-20 percent ownership projection and is the highest-rated QB in the Sports Geek Model.
The Coda
Now we’re watching Die Hard, one of the most underrated Christmas movies ever. Sometimes when you’re surrounded by family, there’s really nothing you want more than to see some sh*t blow up.
Yippee ki-yay, motherf*cker.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs: By Ian Hartitz
• Wide Receivers: By Bryan Mears
• Tight Ends: By Kelly McCann
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
