The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 11 Tight Ends
Do we really need a TE Breakdown?
To Gronk or Not to Gronk?
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Rob Gronkowski (lung) is officially out — but it’s not as if you were planning on playing him anyway, right?
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Martellus Bennett ($3,700 DK, $5,200 FD): In theory, Bennett should get a big projection/production bump with the absence of Gronk, but in actuality his production this year without Gronk hasn’t been much better than it is with him. Per RotoViz:
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Adam Levitan mentioned Bennett as a potentially chalky player to fade, and we’re definitely anticipating that he’ll be popular: He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 21-25 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD (available in our Player Models) — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
Regarding the matchup: The 49ers undoubtedly suck — but there’s nothing about them that is particularly exploitable by TEs. In fact, against TEs they are eighth in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Still, Bennett has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
One thing to note: We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Bennett. Even though he might be a player to consider fading, he does have a high ceiling projection. On FD, he actually has the highest ceiling. On DK, he trails Jordan Reed with the second-highest ceiling. Why the difference? Because our methodology suggests that, in an upside scenario, Reed’s chances of earning the 100-yard DK bonus are better than Bennett’s.
Pay attention to the nuances of the ceiling and floor projections.
Greg Olsen ($6,500 DK, $7,100 FD): Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Olsen hasn’t been the team’s primary receiver over the last month . . .
. . . but he’s still incredibly important to the Panthers, as he leads the team with 78 targets, 50 receptions, and 712 yards. On the season, he’s still the TE1 in points per game (PPG). Per our Trends tool:
The Panthers are 3.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 28 points. Olsen is facing the division rival Saints, who are 26th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Olsen is the highest-rated FD TE in the CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models.
Julius Thomas ($3,500 DK, $5,900 FD): He’s facing a Lions defense that is 28th in pass DVOA against TEs and has allowed literally 21 TDs to TEs over the last 25 games. He’s projected for two to four percent ownership.
Delanie Walker ($5,700 DK, $6,400 FD): Despite missing a game, Walker leads the Titans with 62 targets, 42 receptions, and 571 yards. He’s second with five TDs receiving. He’s facing a Colts defense that is 31st in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing 17.0 DK and 13.3 FD PPG to the position.
Walker is the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales Model.
Zach Miller ($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD): There’s nothing all that great about Miller’s matchup with the Giants — they’re 18th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing a middle-of-the-road 13.0 DK and 10.1 FD PPG to the position — but there’s the possibility that, with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery out, Miller could emerge as the primary pass catcher for the Bears.
It wouldn’t be the first time it’s happened.
We’re expecting him to be especially chalky on DK with an ownership percentage of 17-20 percent.
Jesse James ($3,400 DK, $4,800 FD) and Ladarius Green ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): We don’t know yet how the workload is going to be split between these two guys, but Ladarius was a full participant in practice on Thursday and is working his way back into the offense and playing shape. He’s an intriguing guy who costs bone nothing on both sites.
James and Green are going against a Cleveland defense that is 32nd in DVOA against TEs and allowing them to have league-high marks in targets (89), receptions (72), yards (774), and fantasy points: The Browns are allowing to TEs a ridiculous 21.6 DK and 17.1 FD points per game (PPG).
Neither guys is projected to have an ownership higher than four percent — and that’s already on the high end.
Dennis Pitta ($3,600 DK, $4,800 FD): Pitta is second on the team with 66 targets, first with 46 receptions, and third with 375 yards. He’s facing a Dallas defense that is 30th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Zach Ertz ($3,200 DK, $4,700 FD): Ertz has 15 targets, 14 receptions, and 152 yards over the last two games. He’s facing a Seattle defense that is 22nd in pass DVOA against TEs.
Charles Clay ($2,600 DK, $4,800 FD): Clay is absurdly cheap for a guy averaging 5.7 targets per game over his last six games. He’s facing a Bengals defense that is 29th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position: 17.9 DK and 14.6 FD PPG.
He’s the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales and Sports Geeks Models.
Jordan Reed ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD): If you like to pay up for TEs, you’ll be satisfied to know that the Packers allow 15.7 DK and 12.6 FD PPG to TEs. You also might be troubled to know that they’re 10th in pass DVOA against the position.
It’s tough to fade Reed — but fading him worked out last week . . .
Tyler Eifert ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD): If we discount Eifert’s Week 7 warm-up, we see a guy who is back to being a total stud . . .
. . . and is facing a Bills defense that is 27th in pass DVOA against TEs.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,300 DK, $5,100 FD): He didn’t get the TE TDs last week, but he still saw five targets and over the last six weeks . . .
. . . he has firmly entrenched himself as a part of the offense. The Raiders are allowing 13.6 DK and 11.2 FD PPG to the position.
Eric Ebron ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) and Travis Kelce ($4,700 DK, $6,100): These two guys are similar in that they are both central to their teams and they’re projected to have ownership that’s not insignificant. It’s not that I think both players need to be faded, but neither has a matchup that is advantageous. Ebron is facing the Jaguars, who are 12th in pass DVOA against TEs, and Kelce is facing the Buccaneers, who are fifth against the position.
If you want to roster either of them, I think it’s fine. Both of them are good enough to overcome neutral to negative matchups. But you should just know that you’re not getting these guys in great spots.
Will Tye ($2,700 DK, $4,500 FD): As was the case last week, Tye is bone cheap and a decent punt play. He’s facing the Bears, who are 21st in pass DVOA against TEs. Over the last two weeks, Tye has seen 15 targets as the No. 1 TE for the Giants.
Jimmy Graham ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD): Graham’s facing the Eagles, who are third in pass DVOA against TEs and holding them to the second-fewest fantasy points at the position: 6.6 DK and 5.3 FD PPG.
Graham has failed to meet his salary-based expectations in three of the last four games.
So naturally the contrarian in me wants to roster him.
Per Admiral Adama: “Sometimes you’ve got to roll the hard six.”
The Coda
Coby Fleener ($3,400 DK and $5,700 FD): Fleener’s done jack sh*t for a solid month. It’s about time for him to screw everyone over with a big game. The Panthers are 24th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing 16.4 DK and 14.0 FD PPG to the position.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
