The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Week 11: Running Backs
Last week, I used the election as an excuse for attempting to make this piece shorter. This week, I offer no excuse. I’m just asserting that, like Eddie Lacy, this piece is best when it weighs a little less than it recently has.
Also, you’re right. What I just wrote — that’s an excuse trying to pretend as if it’s not excuse. Sort of like Tavon Austin trying to pretend that he’s not a RB.
RB Pricing
As I highlighted in the RB Breakdown last week and several weeks before that, RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
The average Bargain Rating for the four DK RBs with the highest salaries is 0.5 percent. That’s not a typo. Talk about getting screwed with your pants on.
On FD, there’s only one RB who has a Bargain Rating lower than 24 percent.
The pricing disparity between the two sites is ridiculous.
Four weeks ago, LeGarrette Blount had a 90 percent Bargain Rating; this week, four percent.
You can still find some comparative value on DK, but it’s not all that easy.
The Big Four
This week’s Big Four (in terms of pricing) is a formidable bunch. Per our Trends tool:
Unsurprisingly, these four RBs easily lead the position in points per game (PPG) on the season. Also, note the higher Plus/Minus and Consistency on FD. That’s not a coincidence. Remember that RBs right now are generally cheaper on FD than DK. These four guys all have FD Bargain Ratings of at least 98 percent. Those absurdly high Bargain Ratings count for something, and we see it in the Big Four’s year-to-date performance.
You know who these brosephs are:
• Le’Veon Bell: $8,800 DK (RB1), $9,100 FD (RB1)
• DeMarco Murray: $8,200 DK (RB2), $8,500 FD (RB3)
• Ezekiel Elliott: $8,000 DK (RB3), $8,700 FD (RB2)
• David Johnson: $7,900 DK (RB4), $8,300 FD (RB4)
A few things about these guys:
- They are all costly, but Bell is within a tier of his own. He’s $600 DK and $400 FD more expensive than the RB2. There’s an enormous tier break between these guys and the RB5 ($1,000 DK and $600 FD), so these four RBs definitely belong together, but Bell is the clear Leonardo of these Ninja Turtles.
- They are all workhorses who, at least mostly, seem likely to get the supermajority of RB action on their team. They’re valuable because of their high expected volume.
- They are all three-down workhorses with good pass-catching skills.
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
One question:
With the yards and opportunities that Bell has gotten this season, he was bound to score some touchdowns at some point. And here’s the thing: Even though he scored two TDs last week, he’s probably not tapped out. For the first three years of his career, Bell averaged one TD for every 189.4 scrimmage yards. Through six games, he’s averaging one TD for every 396.5 yards. He still is likely to experience some positive TD reversion.
And, boy, he has the nuts matchup. The Steelers are 7.5-point road favorites with an implied Vegas total of 27.75 points. Throughout his career, Le’Veon has very much been his stud self as a road favorite. Per RotoViz:
On top of that, they’re playing against the Browns, who are 29th against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and allowing 125.4 rushing yards per game (YPG) to opposing RBs — the second-highest mark in the slate.
Through 10 games, they’re allowing RBs to average 28.6 DK and 26.2 FD points per game (PPG). Last week, with DeAngelo Williams recovering from knee surgery, Bell was literally the only RB on the Steelers to touch the ball. The odds are that this week, whatever RB production the Steelers have, it will almost entirely belong to Bell.
One quick note: We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Bell. No matter how you look at him, here’s the clear top RB for the slate. On both DK and FD, he easily has the top median projection, and he also has the highest floor, ceiling, and Projected Plus/Minus.
He leads the slate with seven FD and 12 DK Pro Trends and has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 percent — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
He is Monsieur Chalk Du Jour.
Note: the weather in Cleveland is apparently apocalyptic with high winds and sideways-blowing snow. Monitor the FantasyLabs News feed for updates. It’s possible that Bell could see more than his usual share of opportunities.
The Murracle
DeMarco (foot) has been playing through an injury for weeks now. It limits his ability to practice — he missed practice on Wednesday, and his status should be monitored via the FantasyLabs News feed — but he hasn’t missed a game yet, and even with the injury he’s been a stud:
Last week he even pulled a LaDainian and threw a TD pass to his tight end. With 19.1 carries and 4.6 targets per game, Murray is averaging a robust 118.9 scrimmage YPG. His 10 TDs on the season are just gravy.
This week, the Titans are three-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points against the Colts. Although it’s not great to be a road dog, Murray has done well as such this season, averaging 22.53 DK and 19.15 FD PPG across four games with 100 percent Consistency. On the road, he hasn’t not been a dog this year.
Also, Murray gets the privilege of facing the Colts, who are dead last in rush DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA against RBs. On the season, the Colts are allowing 27.7 DK and 24.2 FD PPG to RBs. A month ago, Murray had a ‘mediocre’ performance against the Colts, accumulating 127 yards and a TD on 25 rushes and three receptions for 24.7 DK and 20.2 FD points. Naturally, he had 41.7 and 33.2 percent DK and FD ownership.
This week, we’re projecting him to have 17-20 and 13-16 percent DK and FD ownership. That’s a pretty big difference in ownership percentage from Week 7 to Week 11: Arbitrage.
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
Last week, the young man from Ohio put up 43.9 DK and 39.9 FD points — the highest RB marks on the season. His final touch was a game-winning 32-yard TD run with nine seconds left to play. No big deal.
The Cowboys rookie leads the NFL with 1,005 yards rushing. The two backs who immediately trail him — Murray and Melvin Gordon III — have both played in 10 games. Zeke has played in only nine.
With 111.7 rushing YPG, he’s easily the only RB in the league with a mark above 100. And he’s proven himself to be a competent receiver, with a catch rate of 85.7 percent. As a point of comparison: DeMarco’s is 80.4 percent, as is Le’Veon’s. Just last week, Zeke took one of his two targets 83 yards for a TD. Again, NBD.
The Cowboys are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Cowboys are hosting the Ravens, who easily — very easily — lead the NFL in rush DVOA. This year, they’re allowing only 18.9 DK and 15.2 FD PPG to RBs — the second-lowest marks on the slate.
Zeke is yet to see fewer than 19 opportunities in any game, and the Cowboys are the only team in the league to run the ball more than they pass — but Zeke carries some risk. While the game is competitive, it’s possible that Zeke might not do a lot with his opportunities, and if the Cowboys get a large lead it’s possible that Alfred Morris — priced up to an astounding $4,700 DK, by the way — could get some of the run-out-the-clock action so that Zeke doesn’t need to pound against a tough defense for no reason.
For a guy who’s the seasonal RB2 in PPG, Zeke has actually been surprisingly mediocre in his few games as a home favorite:
There’s nothing wrong with what Zeke has done so far as a home favorite — but, given his 21-25 and 26-30 percent DK and FD projected ownership, these probably aren’t the droids you’re looking for.
[Obi-Wan Kenobi hand gesture]The Big Johnson
Johnson is easily the current RB1 in points per game (PPG) . . .
. . . and he’s priced as the RB4. Why is that?
Because the Cardinals are on the road and playing against the Vikings, who are allowing only 20.0 DK and 17.2 FD PPG to RBs — the fourth-lowest marks in the league. It certainly isn’t an easy matchup for the team, as the Cardinals are currently implied to score only 20.25 points in a pick’em.
Sometimes it’s hard to remember that (despite his 23 career TDs) Johnson has started only 14 games, so we don’t have a large sample to analyze.
Against top-16 rush defenses, Johnson hasn’t been an especially productive workhorse on the road . . .
. . . and he also wasn’t great in his one road game with a close spread:
But he’s David F*cking Johnson, and he’s $900 DK and $800 FD cheaper than the guy priced as the RB1. Plus, the Vikings have been roughed up by the two RBs who are the most comparable to him out of all the RBs they’ve faced (DeMarco and Jordan Howard):
Johnson has FantasyLabs ownership projections of only 13-16 percent. In at least a few tournament lineups, you should probably get off of Bell, Murray, and Zeke and use Johnson instead:
He’s the Quan.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
C.J. Prosise ($4,200 DK, $4,900 FD): Almost a year ago, I profiled Prosise as an NFL Draft prospect, saying this (at RotoViz): “Even if Prosise is not the athlete that they are — and he probably isn’t — the players to whom he is most comparable (given his size, production, receiving ability, and likely draft range) are David Johnson and Javorius Allen. Like Johnson, the Notre Dame prospect is a WR-to-RB convert who has adapted remarkably well to his new position, and Prosise, like Allen, is a capable big-bodied runner who really distinguishes himself because of his receiving ability.”
As Johnson and Javorius did last year, Prosise this year has a massive opportunity to break out over the second half of the season and do damage as a three-down workhorse. In his two games this season as an actual part of the offense, he’s done well . . .
. . . and now Christine Michael is no longer with the Seahawks. Thomas Rawls seems likely to return this week, but he hasn’t played in a couple of months, and he was largely inefficient to open the season.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex, Adam Levitan said that he expects Prosise to be incredibly chalky this week, and we’re projecting him to have 31-40 and 21-25 percent ownership on DK and FD.
He’s 6’0″ and 220 lbs. and ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and (per Player Profiler) he leads all RBs with 7.3 yards per touch and is second with his 93.8 percent catch rate. Those numbers are based on a small sample, but they’re indicative of the type of player he is.
The Seahawks are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Eagles, who have a funnel defense that flows to the running game and are also 24th against RBs in pass DVOA.
Robert Kelley ($4,400 DK, $5,400 FD): ‘Rob’ to the industry, ‘Robert’ to his mother, ‘Robby’ to his childhood friends, ‘Bobby’ to his online chess opponents, and ‘Bob’ to his accountant, Kelley has been a model of competent mediocrity since becoming Washington’s starter:
A big-and-slow grinder who is Matt Asiata-esque in his workmanship — he has a bottom one percentile SPARQ-x score (per Player Profiler) — Kelley in the NFL has been a total failure as a receiver, turning four targets into two receptions for -1 yard, but in college he was an outstanding pass-catcher, with a 46-340-4 receiving stat line as a sophomore.
He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Packers, who are fifth in rush DVOA, but the Redskins are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.5 points. It’s hard to ignore a big-bodied goal-line back getting 23 opportunities per game as a starter.
Jeremy Hill ($4,400 DK, $5,900 FD) and Giovani Bernard ($4,600 DK, $6,000 FD): The Bengals are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Bills, who are 22nd in rush DVOA and allowing RBs to score 1.1 rushing TDs.
This year, Hill has been a beast as a home favorite . . .
. . . and he’s been a producer over his last three games:
Of course, you can never take Gio for granted.
Spencer Ware ($6,000 DK, $7,700 FD): One of the few DK RBs with a Bargain Rating above 50 percent, Ware last week had an understandably uninspiring game against a tough Panthers defense (seventh in rush DVOA). This week, the Chiefs are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Buccaneers, who are allowing 25.9 DK and 23.1 FD PPG to RBs — the ninth-highest marks in the league.
As a home favorite . . .
. . . Ware has been very good, and this week we’re projecting him at only five to eight and two to four percent ownership on DK and FD.
Jay Ajayi ($6,800 DK, $7,600 FD): Last week was the first time that Ajayi underperformed in his five weeks as a lead back. Here’s the thing: He still got 80 yards on 20 touches. It’s annoying that Damien Williams ($3,900 DK, $4,700 FD) has managed to steal four TDs in as many games, but Ajayi has still been a stud as the starter:
The Dolphins are 1.5-point road favorites implied to score 20.75 points against the Rams, who are eighth in rush DVOA. It’s not a great spot for Ajayi, but he does have +7.86 DK and +6.97 FD Plus/Minus values with 100 percent Consistency in his two games as a favored lead back.
And, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Ajayi is dominating the Miami backfield with 72.39 percent of the team’s rushing attempts:
He’s projected for nine to 12 and two to four percent ownership on DK and FD.
Lamar Miller ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD): Over the last five games, Miller has only one game with at least 18 carries. Of course, he is playing against the Raiders, who are 27th in rush DVOA, and he does have three TDs over the last month. Maybe the Monday night Mexico City game will see some offensive outbursts like the London games have seen.
Latavius Murray ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD): On the season, Murray has 1.1 TDs per game, and since returning from injury he’s averaging 20.7 opportunities per contest across three games. The Raiders are 5.5-point favorites implied to score 25.75 points in Mexico City, and the Texans have a funnel defense ranked 24th in rush DVOA.
Frank Gore ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): I’m not really a fan of Gore, but he’s having a good season, especially for a guy suspected of committing voter fraud because he’s dead. He’s been consistent this year, but the irony is that he’s been at his worst as a home favorite:
The sample is small, but it illustrates just how limited Gore’s upside is.
The Colts are three-point home favorites implied to score 27.5 points against the Titans, who are in the bottom-six in the league with 20.1 DK and 17.7 FD PPG allowed to RBs.
Todd Gurley ($5,000 DK, 6,700 FD): Rookie quarterback Jared Goff is making his first NFL start. Whatever.
James Starks ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD): The Redskins are 14th in pass DVOA and 30th in rush DVOA. If ever there were a time, it’s now.
The Super Models
This week, we (currently) have five runners at the top of our Pro Models:
• LeSean McCoy: $6,900 DK, $7,500 FD
• LeGarrette Blount: $6,400 DK, $7,300 FD
• Theo Riddick: $5,100 DK, $6,700 FD
• Isaiah Crowell: $3,900 DK, $6,200 FD
• Rashad Jennings: $3,600 DK, $5,600 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
The Real McCoy
If we ignore McCoy’s injury-impacted eight-carry Week 7 performance against Miami, we’ll see that he’s been a steady stud this year:
Given how much cheaper McCoy is than the Big Four and how comparable his production is to theirs, he probably warrants some tournament exposure.
The Bills are implied to score only 22.3 points as 2.5-point road underdogs against the Bengals, so McCoy is seemingly not in a great situation, but he’s done well enough this year as a road underdog . . .
. . . especially when you consider that those games were against three teams with top-five rush DVOAs in Baltimore (first), Seattle (second), and New England (fourth).
The Bengals are 20th.
McCoy is the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
“Suffragette City”: San Fran, Thank You, Ma’am
The 49ers defense is 31st in rush DVOA and allowing league-high marks of 35.1 DK and 30.7 FD PPG to RBs. The 49ers are also allowing a league-high per-game rushing stat line of 30.6-160.3-1.4. And let’s not forget the league-high 31.4 PPG allowed by the team.
The Patriots are slate-high 13-point road favorites implied to score 32 points against the 49ers.
Blount has actually been more productive with Brady than he was without him . . .
. . . and he’s projected for ‘only’ 13-16 and 21-25 percent ownership on DK and FD — which is pretty low, considering that he leads the NFL with 12 rushing TDs and the slate with 13 carries inside the five-yard line.
Blount is the highest-rated FD RB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Of course, if you wanted to pivot off of Blount, some leverage with pass-catching RB James White ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD) probably wouldn’t hurt:
He has two to four and zero to one percent ownership projections on DK and FD.
And with tight end Rob Gronkowski out, it’s possible that Blount could see more red-zone opportunities than he normally does.
A Whole Lotta JAGs
Amazingly, the Jaguars are first (!) in pass DVOA against RBs — but Riddick isn’t a typical pass-catching back, and the Jags are 28th in rush DVOA.
On the season, Riddick is averaging 10.7 carries and 6.6 targets for five receptions, 81.4 scrimmage yards, and 0.71 TDs per game.
The Lions are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.75 points against the Jags. As a home favorite over the last two seasons, Riddick has +5.62 DK and +4.05 FD Plus/Minus values with 100 percent Consistency — and most of that action occurred last season before Riddick became the team’s primary rusher.
Riddick has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and two to four percent on DK and FD. He’s one of the few RBs with a Bargain Rating of at least 50 percent on DK, where he’s the highest-rated RB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Cros Before Something Else That Rhymes With “Cros”
For a big-bodied two-down back who isn’t especially great at catching the ball and is losing significant snaps to another RB while being on an 0-10 team that has given real quarterback snaps to five QBs and a wide receiver who used to pretend to play QB, Crowell is actually doing pretty well this season. You can’t expect much more from a guy in that situation than the 78.5 scrimmage YPG and 0.5 TDs per game that he’s offering.
From a salary-based perspective, Crowell isn’t great, but he’s not garbage either, especially on DK, where he has a +5.11 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency, a slate-high 93 percent Bargain Rating, and the highest RB rating in the Bales Model. His +6.37 Projected Plus/Minus is second in the slate.
He’s not in a great situation — the Browns are 7.5-point home underdogs implied to score only 19.5 points against the Steelers — but his salary-based expectation is only 7.33 points. With an average of 14.9 opportunities per game, he has a decent chance of getting there.
I mean, I probably wouldn’t roster him, but I also like cubes of cheese dipped in chocolate, so . . .
The WOAT
Ripping off what I said last week . . .
Jennings is the f*cking WOAT, but he’s so cheap on DK, where he’s the highest-rated RB in the CSURAM88 Model.
Why does he rank so highly in that Model?
He has an 82 percent DK Bargain Rating, a +6.02 Projected Plus/Minus, and a favorable Vegas situation. The Giants are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Bears.
On the season, Jennings is averaging 13.2 rushing attempts and 3.3 targets per game. He’s yet to have fewer than 13 opportunities in any game played. It’s hard to find that kind of volume for only $3,600 DK — especially if you don’t really trust Chris Ivory at that price (and I pretty much don’t).
The Bears aren’t stout against the run, ranking 18th in rush DVOA, so Jennings should have a real chance to reach his salary-based expectation of 6.48 points. He’s fallen below that total only once — in the Week 2 game he had to leave early due to injury.
Can we be done?
The Coda
Jonathan Stewart ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD) is a home favorite against a Saints defense that is allowing 29.6 DK and 26.2 FD PPG to RBs. It’s a Thursday night game, but . . .
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 11 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
