The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Week 11: Quarterbacks
How long ago does Week 1 seem? A f*cking lifetime ago. I mean, it’s already Week 11. If I were Derek Zoolander, I’d look at those two numbers and say something like, “Week 11 is at least double Week 1.” And you know what? I’d be absolutely right.
Next week it’s Thanksgiving. After that it’s basically Christmas and Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, and then it’s New Year’s Eve and then 2017, and then before you know it we’re all dead and you don’t need to read this weekly article anymore.
All of which is to say that time, when not dying, is flying. It might be hard for you to remember a world in which the QB Breakdown wasn’t a 5,000-word self-indulgent pseudo-utile sh*tshow masterpiece — but just 10 weeks ago this piece weighed in at a svelte and agile 1,827 words. I have proof.
That’s like being this guy . . .
. . . when we used to be this guy:
And wouldn’t you know it? I just wrote 175 words about how this piece uses too many words.
For the rest of the year, we’re going to try to keep the positional breakdowns lean.
Winter is coming.
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
A Few More Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s QB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers a ton of straight-up stone dopeness in only 13:48.
Moving on . . .
Four Teams on Bye
If ever there’s a week not to roster Matt Ryan, it’s this one.
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and many pieces before that, QB salary patterns on DraftKings and FanDuel are very different (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
In general, QBs are relatively cheaper on DK than on FD. For instance, six DK QBs have Bargain Ratings of 88 percent. On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 82 percent.
This is old news. But there’s also something new: This week, the most expensive QBs are actually more expensive on DK than FD. There are 28 starting QBs, and the 22 cheapest of them on DK all have Bargain Ratings over 50 percent. However, out of the six most expensive DK QBs, four of them have Bargain Ratings no greater than 30 percent: They are actually much cheaper on FD.
And now something that seems to contradict what I just said: Out of all the players in the slate, five of the 12 FD players with the highest salaries are QBs. On DK, that number is only two. Even though the top QBs in the slate have higher salaries on FD than DK when we’re comparing QBs to other positions, these QBs are still historically cheaper on FD.
It’s a weird slate for QB pricing.
If you want to pay up for QBs this week, you’ll want to pay special attention to Bargain Ratings. Also, if you’re paying up you might want to do it more on FD than DK. If you’re paying down for QBs, do it on DK, where it’s easier to acquire QB Plus/Minus. As always, arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big Seven
Technically, this section could’ve been “The Big 10,” but that’s just too unwieldy, and it wouldn’t have given me the opportunity to refer non-tellingly to Amy Schumer’s joke about big penises and unicorns two weeks in a row.
I think seven is enough, don’t you?
This cohort comprises the seven QBs who lead the position in fantasy points per game (PPG) on the season (excluding of course Matty Ice). Per our Trends tool:
These guys have been pretty studly. You know who they are:
• Tom Brady: $7,800 DK (QB2), $9,300 FD (QB1)
• Cam Newton: $7,900 DK (QB1), $8,500 FD (QB3)
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,600 DK (QB3/4), $9,100 FD (QB2)
• Drew Brees: $7,600 DK (QB3/4), $8,300 FD (QB5)
• Ben Roethlisberger: $7,500 DK (QB5), $8,400 FD (QB4)
• Andrew Luck: $7,200 DK (QB6), $8,100 FD (QB6)
• Marcus Mariota: $6,700 DK (QB7), $8,000 FD (QB7)
Notice that the salary range for this tier is pretty big: $1,200 DK and $1,300 FD. There’s definitely a difference between the guys at the top of the tier and the bottom — but how could I not include the Maserati?
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
In giving you a sub-Trevor Siemian performance, Tomth Brader nevertheless displayed just how powerful he is with the force. Against a stout Seattle defense, Brady still led the Patriots offense to three touchdowns and passed for 316 yards. His 15.2 DK and 12.3 FD points did nothing for people who rostered him, but his performance overall was strong and indicative of his weekly potential.
Through five games, Brady leads starting QBs with a 72.9 percent completion rate, 7.2 percent TD rate, 0.6 percent interception rate, and 9.8 YPA. Brady leads all starting QBs with an 86.9 Total QBR (per ESPN).
Per our Trends tool:
With Brady, the Patriots are averaging 32 PPG.
This week, the Pats are slate-high 13-point road favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 31.75 points against a 49ers team that is allowing a league-high 31.4 PPG. Plus, even though the 49ers have allowed ‘only’ 256.3 passing yards per game (YPG) to opposing QBs, they have been much worse than that this year when playing out of their division:
Brady currently has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
The hooded Sith Lord’s apprentice is going to be chalky. Just remember that he’ll be without tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Hogan. Both have been declared out.
The Godfather
For weeks, I’ve asserted that a Cam who doesn’t steal touchdowns from his running back can never be a real Cam. In Week 10, we saw the real Cam, as he was unleashed with 12 rushing attempts for 54 yards and a TD to which he added 261 yards passing and another TD for 24.8 fantasy points.
This week, Cam is ‘Making the Four’ as the highest-rated FD QB in each of our Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek. It helps that he has a slate-high 82 percent FD Bargain Rating. Even if we take into account Weeks 8-9, when RB Jonathan Stewart ‘stole’ four rushing TDs from him, Newton has still been on point this season (excluding his injury-shortened Week 4 outing):
QBs tend not to do especially well against divisional rivals, but Newton historically has done well against the NFC South . . .
. . . in part because he gets to play two times per year against the Saints . . .
. . . who have been absolutely horrendous on defense since 2014.
Earlier this year, Newton had a 322-yard, two-TD passing performance against the ‘Aint’s while also adding a rushing TD on his way to 31.0 DK and 28.0 FD points. This week, the Panthers are currently 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 27.75 points in a game with a slate-high 52-point over/under. Unsurprisingly, the Saints are 28th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The situation isn’t perfect for Newton in that he’s playing on Thursday night and not playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football — but, still, he’s a healthy Cam at home against a team with a good offense and bad defense. As I write this, he leads the position in Pro Trends on DK and FD. Game on.
One final note: We’ve recently tweaked the way in which we determine floor and ceiling projections. (Check out FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ explanatory video on our floor and ceiling projections for more details.) I bring this up because it has direct bearing on Cam. As you might expect, he has the highest floor on DK and FD. He also has the highest ceiling on FD — but he has only the seventh-highest ceiling projection on DK. Why? Because of the three-point bonus for 300 passing yards, which our methodology suggests has a better chance of being earned by some other passers than by Newton.
This isn’t to say that you can’t roster Newton on DK — but you should be aware that, relative to other QBs, he has higher upside on FD than DK.
“The Cheese is Old and Moldy; Where is the Bathroom?”
When it comes to Rodgers, I basically just need to shut the f*ck up. And yet . . .
. . . I kind of can’t help myself.
Last week, I got it right. I said that, although regression will eventually lay Rodgers low, it wouldn’t happen against the Titans — and it didn’t. With a slate-high 51 pass attempts, he completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 371 yards and two TDs (against two INTs) and added three rushes for 27 yards and a third TD, finishing the week with 32.5 DK and 29.5 FD points as the QB1.
But Rodgers is still 29th in the NFL with 6.5 yards per attempt. Here are the guys ranked around him:
• Carson Wentz (25th)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (26th)
• Alex Smith (27th)
• Tyrod Taylor (28th)
• Blake Bortles (30th)
• Joe Flacco (31st)
• Blaine Gabbert (32nd)
• Brock Osweiler (33rd)
Excuse me for a second . . .
. . . OK, I’m back. I hope I didn’t get any of that on you.
Rodgers is outperforming a lot of his career rates for TDs and underperforming his career rates for yards. That’s not good.
The Packers are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24 points against a Washington defense that is 14th in pass DVOA and 30th in run DVOA. It’s possible that the Redskins’ funnel defense could push production toward the running game like . . .
. . . especially since RB James Starks is back and (per our Matchups tool) WR Jordy Nelson is likely to be covered for most of the game by shutdown shadow cornerback, Josh Norman, Pro Football Focus’ No. 12 CB with a coverage grade of 83.3.
It’s hard to go against A-Rod’s recent hot streak . . .
. . . because he’s been spitting venom like a frakking dilophosaurus ever since RB Eddie Lacy‘s injury made the team shift to an extremely pass-heavy offense four games ago — but Rodgers carries the risk of imminent regression.
Roster him in guaranteed prize pools, where we’re expecting him to have five to eight percent ownership, but stay away in cash games.
2016: The Year Is Almost Over, But It’s a New Year
Brees is playing on Thursday night, and he’s not at the Superdome, so he doesn’t make for an especially appealing option this week, but on the NFL Daily Fantasy Flex special guest Jeff Ratcliffe and regulars Adam Levitan and FantasyLabs Co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) speculated that Brees could be under-owned in Thursday contests because so many DFS players would be on Cam vs. the Saints defense. That’s a distinct possibility.
Here’s something to keep in mind: We all know about Brees’ outlandish home/road splits, which have been all the more ridiculous ever since Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead emerged as his primary WRs last year. Per RotoViz:
But Brees has actually still been pretty decent on the road this year . . .
. . . especially in his two most recent away games:
The point is that, even with his negative home/road splits, Brees can be rostered profitably on the road. It’s possible. He is, after all, the QB1 on the season with 25.93 DK and 23.82 FD PPG.
This week, the Saints are 3.5-point underdogs implied to score 24.25 points against a QB-friendly Panthers funnel defense against which in Week 6 Brees was the QB1 with a 465-yard, four-TD performance for 36.6 DK and 33.6 FD points.
If you want a Thursday hammer, Brees might be it.
Rubberneck, Track No. 6
This week, Big Ben is away . . .
. . . where he has been astoundingly mediocre ever since Antonio Brown became his primary WR. And since Antonio became the best WR in the NFL . . .
. . . Ben has been an outright daily fantasy sports liability when not playing in Pittsburgh.
By the way, I’m not blaming Ben’s struggles on Antonio or drawing a causal connection between Antonio’s emergence and Ben’s road struggles. What I’m illustrating with these time frames is that not even the great Antonio can save Ben from his wandering self.
I hear your objection . . .
This week, the Steelers are 7.5-point favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the hapless Browns, who are 31st in pass DVOA.
. . . to which I say this: The Browns are also 29th in rush DVOA, so a lot of the action could flow to RB Le’Veon Bell, who’s just as good on the road as he is at home. Plus, Roethlisberger (with Antonio) hasn’t been all that good on the road against bottom-10 pass defenses . . .
. . . and he’s been even worse (somehow) against bottom-three pass defenses:
The sample is small, but it clearly shows the risk that Roethlisberger carries.
For a guy who has an outstanding matchup, Ben’s in about as bad of a spot as possible: He historically sucks on the road, he’s even worse on the road this year (-2.71 DK and -2.72 FD Plus/Minus values), he hasn’t been able to exploit good matchups on the road in the past, he has a good RB who could take over the game, and he’s playing against a division rival.
For a guy with chalky ownership projections of nine to 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD, Roethlisberger has the potential to be a DFS Hindenburg. (Not that I’m calling Big Ben a blimp or anything.)
Don’t rest your genitals on that Venus flytrap.
There’s No Such Thing as Luck
There’s no need to belabor this. The Colts are coming off a bye week, WRs T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief should both be rested and healthy, and the Colts are three-point home favorites implied to score 27.5 points in a game with a slate-high 52-point over/under.
And they’re facing the Titans, whose funnel defense is 26th in pass DVOA and who have had their five worst defensive performances of the year against QBs over the last five weeks:
Also, four weeks ago Luck on the road lit up the Titans like a bowlful of legalized marijuana, throwing for 353 yards and three TDs as the QB1 with 30.8 DK and 27.8 FD points — and this week he has a slate-high DK ceiling projection of 31.5 points.
And he doesn’t even have a top-five QB salary on either site. Ride that colt.
The Maserati
While the Titans’ pass defense has struggled recently, its passing offense has been on fire. Mariota has multiple TDs passing in eight of 10 games this year, and over the past month and a half . . .
. . . he’s been the QB3 in PPG just behind Brees and Rodgers.
The Titans are three-point road underdogs implied to score 24.5 points in a shootout with the Colts, who are 30th in pass DVOA, and Mariota has shown the killer ability throughout his career to produce as a road dog:
Like Luck, Mariota doesn’t have a top-five QB salary on either site. I don’t want to be indelicate, but . . .
. . . get ready.
Yeah, he’s $1,300 DK and $1,000 FD more expensive than he was when he started his hot streak seven weeks ago, but it’s hard to say that the guy who is QB7 on the season with 21.06 DK and 20.36 FD PPG is too expensive when he’s priced as QB7 and has a great matchup.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Blake Bortles ($5,400 DK, $7,200 FD): This guy is the anti-Roethlisberger: He’s a stud on the road, where’s he’s always been an underdog. Since his breakout campaign last season . . .
. . . he’s been a DFS stud. You can say that he’s a horrible QB — and he absolutely is — but . . .
- That doesn’t matter.
- It might decrease his ownership.
- He’s the slate’s DK QB8 and FD QB9 in PPG.
The Jaguars are 6.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 20.25 points against the Lions, who are dead last in pass DVOA and allowing 23.2 DK and 21.7 FD PPG to opposing QBs — the second-highest marks in the league.
Jump on the back of this garbage truck and hang on for dear life.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD): Stop acting like you’re too good for KCCK. Ever since becoming the 49ers’ starting QB in Week 6, Kaep has been a DFS dream:
You might think that Kaep sucks as a passer — and, fine, his 53.0 percent completion rate suggests that he sucks as a passer — but he is averaging 57 rushing YPG. When you add in the random passing (or rushing!) bonuses that he might get on DK as well as the occasional rushing TDs, that’s probably enough to get some of you excited:
His salary-implied expectations this week are 14.37 DK and 14.85 FD points. He’s yet to drop below either of those marks this season. Unsurprisingly, he currently has a top-five floor projection on both DK and FD.
The 49ers are 13-point home underdogs implied to score only 18.75 points against the Pats, but does any of that really matter? The Pats are 27th in pass DVOA, and they couldn’t prevent two running QBs from having serviceable performances against them in their most recent games.
If you’re looking for a cheap QB who probably won’t destroy your lineup in cash games, Konami Code Colin could be your guy.
Or this next guy . . .
Tyrod Taylor ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD): Ever since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Tygod has been heavenly:
Like Kaep, Tyrod has been supported by his strong rushing production, as he’s averaged 53.9 yards and 0.57 TDs on the ground per game since Week 3. He also has a top-five floor on DK and FD.
The Bills are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score 22.25 points against the Bengals, who are allowing 22.3 DK and 20.8 FD PPG to QBs — the fourth-highest marks in the league.
Matthew Stafford ($6,600 DK, $7,900 FD): The guy who can’t decide if he’s “Matt” or “Matthew” has played in nine games this year. In three of them he has at least 28 DK points. In the other six, he has not even 20 DK points.
If you want to roster the DK QB11 and FD QB10 when he’s priced as the QB7 and playing against a Jaguars team that’s 13th in pass DVOA, go for it. You look like you could use a good shvitz.
Yep.
Dak Prescott ($6,000 DK, $7,500 FD): He’s second in the NFL with an 82.6 Total QBR. Since making his NFL debut, Presgod has been the model of (100 percent) Consistency:
It almost doesn’t matter who or where he’s playing.
The Cowboys are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.25 points against the Ravens, whose No. 1 rush DVOA should serve to funnel some of the production toward the passing game.
Russell Wilson ($6,100 DK, $7,400 FD): For the first three years of his career, Wilson was better in the second half of seasons than in the first half:
The trend held true last year:
And so far . . .
. . . it’s manifesting itself this year.
I don’t know if I believe in the predictiveness of a first-/second-half seasonal split — but Wilson has it.
The Seahawks are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Eagles, who are first in pass DVOA but currently banged up, with both of their starting outside cornerbacks appearing on the midweek injury report.
He’s projected for five to eight and nine to 12 percent ownership on DK and FD.
Kirk Cousins ($5,800 DK, $7,600 FD): A Levitan and CSURAM88 favorite, Cousins is basically Stafford — except with lower highs, higher lows, a lower salary, a higher Consistency, and a better matchup at home against a funnel defense.
#NailedIt
The Super Models
This week, there are two non-Cam QBs (currently) at the top of our Pro Models:
• Andy Dalton: $5,700 DK, $7,500 FD
• Alex Smith: $5,300 DK, $6,700 FD
Let’s roll.
Devil’s Advocate
As I’m writing this, Dalton is the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models. His slate-high 88 percent Bargain Rating probably has something to do with that.
Full disclosure: I’m off of Dalton. He has only two games all year with multiple passing TDs. He’s yet to score three TDs in a game. He has fewer TDs passing than Osweiler.
But, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll play devil’s advocate: Dalton is fourth in the NFL with an 8.1 YPA, and he’s scored more than 20 DK and 18 FD points in six of his nine games played. The Bengals are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.8 points against a Bills defense that is 23rd in pass DVOA.
You could do worse.
The Utahn Water Walker
Alex Smith is worse.
The Coda I
Under 3,600 words: That’s improvement.
The Coda II
A not insignificant portion of the Mexican population believes that Texas was stolen from Mexico about 180 years ago. Roger Goodell, ever the thoughtful ambassador of the NFL, is sending to Mexico City — for the first regular-season game to be played there in over a decade — one team from Texas and another team named “The Raiders.” Good thinking, Commish.
The last guy who screwed over a professional football league as much as Goodell has is now the President-elect. I hope that you’re all looking forward to Goodell being President in 20 years.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 11 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
