The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Week 10: Wide Receivers
In the RB Breakdown I wrote something lame, like . . .
This is the ‘special’ election edition of the piece. By that, I mean that I’m going to try to make it shorter, basically out of necessity, as I was unable to do any work on this piece on Tuesday night because I instead was watching the TV for hours with people I didn’t know in an act of awkward, forced, and alcohol-fueled adult socialization.
Anyway, you’ve been warned. I’m going to try to make this shorter (which, frankly, would be good for all of us).
And then I proceeded to write a piece that was about as long as it always is.
Can you use the election excuse twice in one week?
Oh! I know! I’ll reuse last week’s intro!
There’s no good way to put this, so I’m just going to put it.
I’m of the opinion that, if you’ve already had sex with a person two times in one night, foreplay is unnecessary if you’re going back for thirds. In this instance, I think that the third act of intercourse should last as short of a time as possible, because you need to save your strength and make sure that you have enough time for the inevitable fourth sexual act of the evening.
I guess that’s my way of saying that I’ve done two long-ish intros for this week’s QB Breakdown and RB Breakdown — which you should read, by the way — and I still have the TE Breakdown to do after this.
So instead of writing a proper introduction . . . I just wrote an introduction about fast sex and my desire not to write an introduction. What can I say? Sometimes foreplay just happens.
When I think about you, I quote myself.
Let’s do this!
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s WR Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers a ton of straight-up stone dopeness in only 11:24.
Moving on . . .
WR Pricing
As I pointed out in the WR Breakdown last week — and have pointed out for several weeks now — our Bargain Rating metric indicates that DraftKings WRs are more expensive than all the money required to maintain President-elect Trump’s hair. I imagine that sum is tremendously huge.
For instance, if you look in the Player Models, you’ll see that the three DK WRs with the highest salaries all have zero percent Bargain Ratings. On FD, we don’t see a WR with a Bargain Rating lower than 50 percent till we get to $5,800.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that the five highest salaries in the slate all belong to WRs. There are seven WRs with top-12 salaries. DK is really valuing its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, there are only six WRs with top-24 salaries. There’s a disparity in WR pricing between DK and FD, and it’s significant. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big . . . Wait, What?
Most weeks, the same general group of WRs is at the top of the DK and FD salary scales. There’s normally a point in the spreadsheet where I can insert a line above which the WRs on DK are the same as the ones on FD. Sometimes it’s the Big Four. Last week it was the Big Five.
This week, we have the Big Zero. There’s no clear line of demarcation. There’s no trans-platform consensus on a clear top tier.
What do we do when that happens?
We spread the field and we just start throwing it deep. Right away.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Julio Jones ($9,500 DK, $8,800 FD): The mustachioed assassin is second in the NFL with 107.8 receiving yards per game (YPG), and he’s averaging a respectable nine targets per game. Julio doesn’t dominate his team’s targets the way that some other stud WRs do, but Julio is still the primary receiver.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Julio has ‘only’ 27.78 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games — that’s currently the fifth-highest mark in the NFL — and he additionally has an outsized 43.35 percent of Atlanta’s Air Yards, a metric created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer that helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. Because of his high Air Yards, Julio doesn’t need a lot of targets to do his damage.
But there are two minor issues with Julio:
- If he doesn’t score a TD, he probably destroys your lineups.
- He has a tough matchup against the Eagles.
Since he entered the NFL, Julio has been a rather TD-or-bust WR. Per RotoViz:
That might seem weird for a WR who gets so much of his production from receptions and yards to have his production so correlated with TDs, but that’s how it is.
Because of that, it’s hard to trust Julio in cash games. (In guaranteed prize pools, you should probably always roster Julio in a portion of your lineups.)
As far as the matchup goes, the high-flying Falcons are currently two-point road favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26 points. Per our Matchups tool, Julio is likely to run the majority of his routes against cornerback Nolan Carroll, who has a poor Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 52.9. He also might see a little bit of CB Leodis McKelvin, who has a poor PFF coverage grade of 52.1. Both Carroll and McKelvin are outside of PFF’s top-80 cover CBs. Per John Proctor’s WR/CB Matchups, “Should he get eight to 10 opportunities to catch passes against the Philadelphia cornerbacks, he could have a huge week.”
Of course, the Eagles defensively are first in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and they also rank first in pass DVOA and second in pass DVOA against WR1s — but those high rankings have a lot to do with the team’s pass rush, as the Eagles have a 7.7 percent sack rate.
Against Carroll, Julio has PFF’s sixth-most advantageous WR matchup in the slate. The matchup for the Falcons’ passing game isn’t particularly easy — but his individual matchup . . .
. . . is about as good as it GIFs.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,600 DK, $7,200 FD), John Brown ($4,900 DK, $6,200 FD), J.J. Nelson ($4,200 DK, $5,600 FD), and Michael Floyd ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD): The Cardinals are slate-high 13.5-point favorites implied to score a slate-high 30.75 points against a 49ers team that is allowing a league-high 32.5 PPG. And even though the 49ers aren’t actually horrible against the pass, ranking 19th in pass DVOA, they are allowing a league-high 1.88 TDs per game to WRs, in part because on offense they play at the league’s fastest pace.
Fitz is very discounted on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, and he balled out with a 6-81-2 stat line when the Cardinals played against the 49ers in Week 5.
The other Cardinals WRs have factors in their favor. Brown was dealing with a hamstring issue related to his sickle cell trait earlier in the season, but he returned to action in Week 8, scored his first TD of the year, and then had a bye in Week 9. He should be ready to go this week. Before his hamstring issue acted up, he had 27 targets in Weeks 3-4. When he’s healthy, he can be this team’s de facto No. 1 WR. He’s expected to run most of his routes against CB Keith Reaser, who has a poor 47.3 PFF coverage grade. Monitor his situation with the FantasyLabs News feed.
Nelson has supplanted Floyd as the team’s No. 3 WR, and Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians (the wide receiver whisperer) said on Friday that Nelson is now basically running as the team’s No. 2 WR. He has 19 targets in the last two games, turning them into an 11-163-2 stat line. He led the WRs last game with 92 percent of the offensive snaps, and over the last four games he leads the Cardinals with 27.62 percent of the team’s Air Yards:
Nelson has FantasyLabs ownership projections of zero to one and two to four percent on DK and FD. It’s not a bad idea to be overweight on him.
As for Floyd? He’s no longer a starter, but he’s still a big-bodied guy who had 1,000 yards in 2013, six TDs each year in 2014-15, and 41 percent of the snaps last week. If this game turns into a blowout and the other WRs see fewer snaps, Floyd could potentially benefit. He’s a flyer who likely will have little ownership.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,700 DK, $7,500 FD) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,800 DK, $6,900 FD): The thesis for investing in these two WRs is simple. They’re playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football.
It’s true that the Broncos are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 22.75 points — and that line has moved down since I wrote the QB Breakdown, so that’s not ideal — but they have the potential to go off in New Orleans against a defense that has really given it up at the Superdome this year:
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
You probably already know this, but last year the ‘Aint’s defense allowed an NFL-record 45 TDs passing and was dead last in DVOA. This year, the defense is 28th in pass DVOA, allowing 21.3 DK and 19.1 FD PPG to QBs. They’re allowing the third-most points in the league at 29.8 PPG.
As a road underdog, Demaryius has done exceedingly well in head coach Gary Kubiak’s system. Per our Trends tool:
And of course the same can be said for Manny:
The sample is small, but it’s suggestive. At least a little GPP exposure to these guys is mandatory given this trend and their matchup in NOLA.
Brandin Cooks ($7,000 DK, $7,300 FD), Michael Thomas ($6,100 DK, $6,400 FD), Willie Snead ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD): Rostering any of these three WRs in cash games would be ‘contrarian’ (read: probably a mistake), as defensively the Broncos are second in total and pass DVOA — and first, first, and second in pass DVOA against No. 1, No. 2, and supplementary WRs.
I mean . . .
. . . I know, right? Like, what am I thinking, right?
Well, since they became Brees’ primary receivers, Cooks, Snead, and Thomas have collectively destroyed at the Superdome:
For three WRs on the same team competing for one ball in the same games, those numbers are absurd.
The Broncos are holding opposing WRs to league-low marks of 22.3 DK and 17.4 FD PPG, but the Broncos aren’t entirely themselves: CB Aqib Talib (back) and left end Derek Wolfe (elbow) are expected to miss the game. Other players, such as CBs Chris Harris, Jr. and Kayvon Webster, are currently on the Injury Report. As a result, we are projecting Cooks and Thomas to run the majority of their routes against CB Bradley Roby and Webster. Roby has a poor 42.3 PFF coverage grade; Webster, a below-average 69.4.
The Saints are three-point favorites implied to score 25.75 points. They’ve outscored their implied point totals at home by 6.8 PPG. The odds seems good that at least one of these three WRs will have a good game.
They’re all projected to have ownership no greater than eight percent.
Mike Evans ($9,000 DK, $8,500 FD): The Buccaneers are implied to score 22.75 points at home in a pick’em against the Bears, who are allowing 42.6 DK and 33.7 FD PPG to WRs — the third- and fourth-highest marks in the league.
Evans leads the NFL with a whopping 12.9 targets per game.
Jordan Matthews ($5,900 DK, $5,900 FD): The Eagles are two-point home underdogs implied to score 24 points against the Falcons, who are allowing league-high marks of 44.4 DK and 35.9 FD PPG to opposing WRs. Over the last four games, he leads the team with 25.00 and 29.86 percent of Philly’s targets and Air Yards.
Terrelle Pryor ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD) and Corey Coleman ($5,100 DK, $5,700 FD): The Browns are 7.5-point home underdogs implied to score only 18.25 points against the Ravens, whose funnel defense is allowing 42.4 DK and 34.6 FD PPG to WRs.
Pryor’s been his best with Cody Kessler at QB . . .
. . . and Coleman took it to the Ravens in Week 2, turning eight targets into a 5-104-2 stat line and 30.4 DK and 24.9 FD points.
If you’re in the mood for some Thursday action, one of these guys might do the trick.
Tyreek Hill ($3,800 DK, $4,700 FD): The Chiefs are implied to score only 20.5 points on the road against the Panthers, whose funnel defense is 23rd in pass DVOA. Tyreek has speed, consistent touches, and a team-high four TDs in eight games. When I say, “Double,” you say, “Dipsh*t.”
Plus, Jeremy Maclin (groin) has been ruled out for Week 10. Hill is likely to see more snaps and opportunities in this game.
Kenny Britt ($4,900 DK, $6,400 FD), Tavon Austin ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD), and Brian Quick ($3,700 DK, $4,500 FD): The Rams are implied to score only 19 points as two-point road underdogs against the Jets, whose funnel defense is second in rush DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
These guys have advantageous matchups against outside CBs Marcus Williams (74.6) and Darrelle Revis (56.6) and slot CB Buster Skrine (49.9), all of whom have wonderfully uninspiring PFF coverage grades.
The Jets are allowing 41.0 DK and 32.6 FD PPG to opposing WRs, and Britt, Austin, and Quick have about 75 percent of the team’s Air Yards between them:
None of these WRs is projected to have ownership higher than eight percent — and that’s on the high end.
Jarvis Landry ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD): The Dolphins are implied to score only 22.25 points as 3.5-point road underdogs against the Chargers. That’s not a great situation, but Landry is the Miami slot machine, and WRs who have accumulated at least eight targets against the Chargers have made those targets count:
That said, Landry has an injured shoulder and is averaging only 6.5 targets over his last four games. He’s officially questionable but expected to play.
Julian Edelman ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD) and Chris Hogan ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD): Edelman is averaging 8.75 targets since QB Tom Brady returned, and the Seahawks can be exploited in the middle of the field. Hogan has 8.89 percent of Brady’s targets but 22.23 percent of his Air Yards:
Not all of the receiving can go to tight end Rob Gronkowski, can it?
However, Hogan tweaked his back on Thursday, missed practice on Friday, and is questionable to play this weekend. Monitor his situation.
Jordy Nelson ($7,500 DK, $7,700 FD), Randall Cobb ($6,400 DK, $6,600 FD), Davante Adams ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD), and Ty Montgomery ($6,500 DK WR, $6,200 FD RB): The Packers are implied to score 26 points against the Titans. The team has basically no running backs, and all that passing production isn’t going to TE Richard Rodgers.
And, yes, I basically just used the same joke/conclusion twice. Deal with it.
Deal with it.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,800 DK, $7,00 FD): The Panthers are three-point home favorites implied to score 23.5 points against the Chiefs, who are allowing opposing WRs to score 42.3 DK and 33.2 FD PPG. K-Benjy’s slated to run most of his routes against CB Phillip Gaines, who has a poor 40.8 PFF coverage grade and affords Benjamin with PFF’s second-most advantageous WR matchup of the slate.
A.J. Green ($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD): The Bengals are currently implied to score 23.5 points on the road in a pick’em against the Giants, who are allowing league-high marks of 26 receptions and 194.25 yards per game to WRs. Green is expected to run most of his routes against CB Eli Apple, who has a poor 49.2 PFF coverage grade. Green has PFF’s third-most advantageous WR matchup. There’s the potential for some Monday night magic.
Speaking of which . . .
Odell Beckham ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD): Remember four games ago when people were freaking out about OBJ? He has five TDs in the last four games and is expected to run most of his routes against Cincy CB Adam Jones, who has a poor 48.6 PFF coverage grade.
OBJ gonna eat like . . .
. . . or something like that.
The Super Models
Here are the WRs at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Antonio Brown: $8,900 DK, $8,600 FD
• Alshon Jeffery: $6,600 DK, $7,200 FD
• Doug Baldwin: $5,800 DK, $6,900 FD
• Steve Smith: $5,500 DK, $5,400 FD
• Dontrelle Inman: $3,400 DK, $5,300 FD
Bang a gong.
It’s Not That Complicated
Brown is ridiculously priced as the WR4 on FD, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-rated WR in the Bales and CSURAM88 Player Models.
The Steelers are at home, and QB Ben Roethlisberger is back. Since Antonio became the No. 1 WR, being at home with Ben has been a recipe for success:
It’s not that complicated. Brown is projected to be owned at 21-25 and 26-30 percent on DK and FD. Get some.
Is Jay Cutler as Insignificant as We’ve Always Thought?
There’s this narrative going around that, with Cutler back, Alshon will return to full-on studness.
Maybe.
It sort of depends on the timeline.
Since he first broke out in 2013, he’s basically been a Cutler-agnostic WR:
If, however, you look at what he’s done with the Bears since WR Brandon Marshall left, you’ll see that Cutler’s presence seems to matter:
What probably matters most, though, is that the Buccaneers are allowing opposing WRs to score 42.9 DK and 34.8 FD PPG — the second-highest marks in the league.
Alshon’s the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model.
Ironies
Baldwin leads the slate with eight DK Pro Trends and is the highest-rated DK WR in the CSURAM88 Model. Some of the Model’s love for Baldwin is based on what he has done over the last 16 games, including his second-half onslaught last season:
It’s time that we all admit that that is not who Baldwin is.
It’s ironic that Baldwin has actually done better in the first half of 2016 . . .
. . . than he did in the first half of 2015 and is still such a disappointment, but that’s just the way it is.
Baldwin is not the primary receiver on the Seahawks. That’s TE Jimmy Graham, who has seen 25.20 percent of the team’s targets over the last four games:
What Baldwin did last year when Graham was out isn’t really representative of the player he is now:
You can like Baldwin this week if you want, because he’s cheap and because he’s facing the Patriots, who are 26th in pass DVOA — but don’t like him because of who he was in the second half of last year.
Spiffy Smiffy
It’s not that I/we actually ‘like’ Smith. That’s not why he’s the highest-rated FD WR in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models. It’s that he gets a steady diet of targets when he’s healthy, he seems pretty healthy now, and he’s playing against the Browns, who are dead last in the league in pass DVOA.
P.S. Mike Wallace ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD) turned six targets against these Browns into a 4-41-2 stat line in Week 2. Thursday night’s alright for fighting.
Never Did I Think . . .
For the second week in a row, I’m closing this piece with a half-*ssed blurb about Inman, who’s currently the top DK WR in the Bales and Sports Geek Models.
Why Inman? Because Travis Benjamin ($5,100 DK, $5,700 FD) is injured and has missed practice time this week. He’s officially doubtful to play in Week 10. And Tyrell Williams ($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD), though likely to play and serve as the team’s primary receiver, is also dealing with a knee injury and seems unlikely to absorb all of Benjamin’s targets.
It’s not sexy, but whenever Inman has seen at least six targets . . .
. . . he’s been viable.
The Coda
OBJ is priced as the WR4 on DK. On FD, he’s the WR1 — and he still has a 96 percent Bargain Rating there. That’s incredible.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
