The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 10 Tight Ends
“But at my back I always hear / Time’s winged chariot hurrying near.”
To Gronk or Not to Gronk?
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, we discussed whether Rob Gronkowski would be a chalky play. Apparently he will be: He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17-20 percent (available in our Player Models) — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
Even with that high ownership, you can’t really be blamed for wanting to roster Gronk. With a healed hamstring and quarterback Tom Brady back running the offense, Gronk has easily been the most productive tight end in the league. Per our Trends tool:
Even with those amazing Plus/Minus values, you might find it disconcerting to invest $6,900 DK and/or $8,000 FD in a player who has gotten all of his production on only 6.75 targets per game. Per RotoViz:
But just look at that production! He has either 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this year. That streak won’t last forever, but isn’t it possible that Gronk will be this year — and/or this week — what he’s been for years: Brady’s most important receiver?
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Gronk has ‘only’ 20.00 percent of New England’s market share of targets, trailing wide receiver Julian Edelman by 5.93 percentage points, but he actually leads the team with 33.00 percent of its Air Yards:
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. Basically, what we see with Gronk is that, even though he’s not targeted as frequently as we might expect him to be as the team’s de facto No. 1 receiver, he is targeted on the field deep enough to make his targets count. When Brady is throwing Gronk the ball, Gronk is down the field. Those targets are worth a lot.
Plus, Gronk has a pretty good situation this week. The Patriots are 7.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 28.25 points, and they’re facing the Seahawks. Although that might not seem like a great matchup — as the Seahawks defensively are sixth in pass defense per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — the fact is that the Seahawks are exploitable, ranking 23rd in pass DVOA against TEs.
Less than two years ago, Gronk turned 10 targets against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl into six receptions for 68 yards, a touchdown, and 18.8 DraftKings and 15.8 FanDuel points.
Gronk has the slate’s highest TE projection. If you want to pay up for him, I don’t blame you. He’s the highest-rated FD TE in the Levitan Player Model.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Dennis Pitta ($4,000 DK, $4,900 FD): He’s the highest-rated FD TE in the CSURAM88 Model and going against a Cleveland defense that is 32nd in DVOA against TEs and allowing them to have league-high marks in targets (81), receptions (64), yards (734), and fantasy points: The Browns are allowing to TEs a ridiculous 22.0 DK and 17.5 FD points per game (PPG).
Lance Kendricks ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): Over the last four games, he actually leads the Rams with 19.88 percent of the team’s targets. Where else are you going to find a team leader in targets for this cheap? He’s facing the Jets, who are average (16th) in pass DVOA against the position and allowing 14.0 DK and 11.1 FD PPG to the position.
Greg Olsen ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Projected for no more than eight percent ownership, Olsen might go overlooked in this slate. Averaging 8.75 targets per game on the season, Olsen easily leads the Panthers with 45 receptions and 673 yards. He’s facing the Chiefs, who defensively are eighth in overall pass DVOA but just 22nd against TEs.
Will Tye ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): Bone nothing on both sites, Tye is an exquisite punt play. He’s the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, and he’s facing the Bengals, who are 29th in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing top-three marks of 17.5 DK and 14.3 FD PPG to the position. Most people don’t really think of the Bengals as sucking against TEs, but suck they do. If you want some cheap Monday action, have it at, you degenerate, you.
Virgil Green ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD): He has 10 targets for six receptions and 92 yards over the last two games. He’s playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football against a Saints defense that is 28th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Kyle Rudolph ($3,600 DK, $5,000 FD): Rudy is the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales Model. He’s facing a Washington defense that is 13th in pass DVOA overall but 21st in pass DVOA against TEs. The Redskins allow 15.5 DK and 11.8 FD PPG to TEs.
Travis Kelce ($5,600 DK, $6,300 FD): Kelce has FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight and nine to 12 percent on DK and FD, on the latter of which he has nine Pro Trends and a 96 percent Bargain Rating. Kelce’s facing a Panthers defense that is 25th in DVOA against TEs and allowing top-three marks of 17.3 DK and 14.8 FD PPG to TEs.
WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) is officially out. Kelce could lead the team in targets this week.
Zach Ertz ($3,700 DK, $4,600 FD): Ertz is the highest-rated FD TE in the Sports Geek Model. He’s facing the Falcons, who defensively are just 18th in pass DVOA against TEs but are still allowing 16.1 DK and 13.1 FD PPG to the position.
Tyler Eifert ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD): Don’t forget about him. In his first full game (in Week 8 before the bye), he turned 12 targets into a 9-102-1 stat line. He’s going against the Giants, who are 19th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Jesse James ($2,700 DK, $4,900 FD): He’s the highest-rated DK TE in the Sports Geek Model. He’s facing the Cowboys, who are 30th in pass DVOA against the position.
Of course, Ladarius Green (ankle) has just been activated from the PUP. He’s bone nothing at $2,500 DK and $4,500 FD and might play this week. Monitor the FantasyLabs News feed for updates.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD): Over his last five games, he’s averaging 6.8 targets, 4.8 receptions, 54.4 yards, and 0.6 TDs. That comes out to 13.84 DK and 11.33 FD PPG. He left his Week 8 game with concussion-like symptoms but had the Week 9 bye to recover and might play against the Jaguars this week. Monitor this situation.
Jordan Reed ($6,200 DK, $7,000 FD) and Delanie Walker ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD): These two guys are similar in that they are both central to their teams and projected for five to eight percent ownership. It’s not that I think both players need to be faded, but neither has a matchup that is advantageous. Reed is facing the Vikings, who are 11th in pass DVOA against TEs, and Walker is facing the Packers, who are sixth against the position.
If you want to roster either of them, I think it’s fine. Both of them are good enough to overcome neutral to negative matchups. But you should just know that you’re not getting these guys in great spots.
Antonio Gates ($3,900 DK, $5,700 FD) and Hunter Henry ($3,000 DK, $5,400 FD): As it was prophesied, “Neither can live while the other survives.”
The Coda
Gronk isn’t the only TE playing in New England this weekend. Jimmy Graham ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD) — for the first time in his career — is playing against Gronk. Graham leads the Seahawks with 25.20 percent of the team’s targets over the last four games, and since his Week 1 warm-up Graham has basically been his team’s No. 1 receiver and one of the top-two TEs in the NFL, averaging 16.63 DK and 12.56 FD PPG across that time period.
The Patriots are 24th in DVOA against TEs. They presumably spent their Week 9 bye coming up with a plan to stop Graham . . . but his five to eight percent projected ownership might be too low.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
