The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 10: Quarterbacks
I don’t know how I’m going to make it through a slate without the amusement of the volatile roller coaster that is Matt Stafford — “Matthew” if you’re feeling freaky . . .
. . . but I’ll do my best to entertain myself in some other manner. By the way, just look at that price chart. It took the salary gurus at FanDuel 10 weeks and $1,800 of round-trip movement to realize that Stafford this year is probably the guy they assumed he would be when the season started.
If anyone ever tells you that markets are efficient — any markets — even daily fantasy sports markets — your response should be as follows:
- Understand that you are speaking with someone whose view of the world is rather narrow.
- Invite that person to play poker with you and your friends.
Moving on . . .
We have four teams on bye this week, and I’m legitimately going to miss the opportunity to point out (as I do each week) that Tyrod Taylor is undervalued on DraftKings, and I’ll also miss Andrew Luck and whichever Carr brother is in the NFL right now, but I’ll survive.
By the way, if the McCown and Carr bros ever decide to form a band, I’d definitely buy tickets to see McCarr perform at the Iowa State Fair. I bet there’d be a little bit of California to that country twang.
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
But, really, we’re 10 yards into this drive. If you don’t know what offense I’m running, you’re about to get funneled.
QB Pricing
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and several pieces before that, QB salaries are elevated on FD and depressed on DK (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
This week, the guy priced as the QB1 has the slate’s ninth-highest DK salary. On FD, he has the third-highest salary. On DK, only four players with a top-24 salary are QBs. On FD, a whopping 11 QBs are priced in the top 24.
On DK, three QBs have Bargain Ratings above 90 percent. On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 75 percent. On a relative basis, it’s harder to acquire QB Plus/Minus on FD than DK. Be aware of that. Arbitrage where/when you can.
The Big Four
Technically, this section could’ve been “The Big Nine,” but [insert here Amy Schumer’s joke about big penises and unicorns].
This cohort is the same as last week’s top tier plus the NFL’s front runner for the 2016 MVP, who was on bye last week. In fact (and unsurprisingly), these four QBs lead the position in points per game (PPG) on the season, collectively destroying their opponents. Per our Trends tool:
You know who these guys are:
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,600 DK (QB1), $9,000 FD (QB1)
• Tom Brady: $7,400 DK (QB2), $8,300 FD (QB3)
• Matt Ryan: $7,300 DK (QB3), $8,600 FD (QB2)
• Drew Brees: $6,900 DK (QB4), $8,200 FD (QB4)
I make this joke every week, but this week it really might be applicable. There’s not much in the way of salary separating Ryan and Brees from the QBs priced directly beneath them.
If you want to, you should easily be able to . . .
It never GIFs old, does it?
“The Cheese is Old and Moldy; Where is the Bathroom?”
When it comes to Rodgers, I basically just need to shut the f*ck up. And yet . . .
Last week, A-Rod finished with 27.2 DK points — as did whichever QB the 49ers happened to start, except that guy was A) $2,200 cheaper and B) projected to be owned in fewer lineups.
That’s an extreme example — but it’s not that extreme. If one had pivoted down merely $600 to Brees or $700 to Ryan — both of whom were reviewed favorably in this piece last week and were the closest passers to Rodgers in salary — then one would’ve scored more DK points at the QB position. There was absolutely nothing wrong at all with Rodgers’ top-five Week 9 finish. It just wasn’t good enough for a guy who was the most expensive QB by $600.
I need to be really clear about this: I’m not saying that Rodgers is bad. I’m saying that, in most weeks, given the probability that a number of predictable and cheaper QBs will outscore him, Rodgers tends to be too expensive. It’s not enough for him to have a positive Plus/Minus. He needs to be better than the less expensive pivot plays, and most weeks this season he hasn’t been.
I’ve been especially hard on Rodgers the last few weeks. While acknowledging that Rodgers is a good QB, I’ve basically undermined him in every way imaginable other than calling him “no worse than a league-average lover.” And now I’ve done him the indignity of recycling that joke.
Over the last three weeks — ever since the Packers realized that guys who actually play running back are so 1950s — Rodgers has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 869 yards, 10 touchdowns, and one interception, adding 110 yards rushing and a two-point conversion. He’s averaged 29.6 DK and 28.3 FD PPG in that span.
He’s packing that cheese.
I don’t know what that last sentence means, but it sounds strong. Like the smell of cheese.
On last week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, FantasyLabs Co-founder and GOAT practitioner of gut-based evaluation Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) said this:
He’s a great play. . . . He had that look, like he had the swagger back. Are you guys buying that eye-test swagger?
People don’t laugh at Pete often, but Davis Mattek, Adam Levitan, and I laughed at him. Even the millionaire laughed at himself.
Davis said: “That sounds like a CSU theory that I don’t . . .”
Yeah, I don’t either. I make it a habit not to bet against Pete when anything more than Coors Lite is at stake, but in an era in which passing is at an all-time high Rodgers hasn’t thrown 400 yards in a game in over two years.
In Week 9, Colin Kaepernick was two yards shy of 400 yards passing. That’s the same Kaepernick whom an actual NFL coach earlier this year thought was worse than Blaine Gabbert. That guy was closer to the 400-yard threshold than Rodgers has been since November 2014.
On the Week 8 NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, guest (and winner of the 2014 Week 15 Millionaire Maker) Drew Dinkmeyer gave a strong anti-Rodgers take:
Rodgers isn’t good anymore . . . he’s basically Joe Flacco. . . . Rodgers had a great career, but I think he’s kind of washed now.
On the one hand, Rodgers is in no way comparable to Flacco. On the other hand, Rodgers is 28th in the NFL with 6.4 yards per attempt (YPA). He’s ahead of only Tyrod (6.4), Flacco (6.1), Gabbert (5.9), and Brock Osweiler (5.8), so . . .
. . . he’s comparable to Flacco in at least one regard.
Now, there was someone on Twitter who said that Rodgers’ YPA mark doesn’t matter, because the Packers are using the short passing game as an extension (or in lieu) of the running game. Two points:
- That’s correct. That’s exactly what the Packers are doing.
- That’s false. A-Rod’s YPA still matters.
I’m going to pick an extreme example, not because I’m an *sshole but because the illustration is clear. (Also, I’m definitely an *sshole — but that’s not why I’m picking this example.)
Example: In 1932, the league-average YPA was 5.1. Last year, it was 7.3. Back then, on average an NFL team attempted 10.9 passes per game for 55.2 yards and 0.4 TDs. In 2015, we saw 35.7 passes for 243.8 yards and 1.6 TDs passing. As a general trend, when teams become more efficient at throwing the ball, they become more prolific and productive with their passing games. More passes are attempted, and more fantasy points are accumulated through the air. Throughout the history of the NFL, we can see this trend clearly. The higher the YPA, the greater the overall passing production. I’m not saying that the trend is causal, but the correlation is strong.
We can see this trend even this year. It’s not a coincidence that Brady leads the NFL with 9.8 YPA — or that Ryan is second at 9.5. Those two so far have been the season’s best DFS QBs. It’s also not a surprise that Osweiler and Gabbert have the two lowest YPAs in the league: Those guys suck at (daily fantasy) football.
More than most teams, the Patriots use the short passing game as an extension of the running game. Brady’s numbers aren’t at the bottom of the league — and he also doesn’t have the benefit of playing with what currently looks like the league’s best foursome of wide receivers in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Ty Montgomery.
It’s problematic that Rodgers has thrown 137 passes in three games and has ‘only’ 869 yards to show for it. I mean . . .
Is Rodgers playing on a football field for insects? Rodgers is currently playing the best we’ve seen him play all season and is still averaging fewer than 300 yards passing in that span.
Over the last three games, Rodgers is averaging 6.3 YPA, 45.7 attempts per game, and one TD every 86.9 yards passing. Over the first five games of the season, he averaged 6.5 YPA and 36.2 attempts per game. Before these last three games, Rodgers had averaged one TD every 125.7 yards passing across his career.
Over the last three games, Rodgers is averaging 36.7 rushing yards per game (YPG). Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Rodgers has run the ball almost as much over the last four games as Montgomery has:
Before these last three games, Rodgers had averaged 17.3 rushing YPG across his career.
You can see where this is going. Over the last three games, Rodgers has been less efficient as a yardage producer. He’s been incredibly lucky as a TD thrower. He’s thrown the ball much more than he usually does. And he’s run the ball much more than he usually does.
Since Week 7, the Packers have run an inordinately pass-heavy offense (for them). Per StatMuse:
At some point — maybe this week with the potential return of running back James Starks? — the Packers will throw the ball fewer times per game. And Rodgers will have fewer rushing attempts. And he’ll need to throw more yards to get TDs.
Regression — that Shakespearean Dark Lady who annihilates all men of noble accomplishment — is coming for Rodgers. One day, she will lay him low, like some disgraced cosmonaut. (That one’s for you, Fantasy Douche.)
If you’re paying up for Rodgers when regression strikes, your week will likely be ruined. Feel free to roster him in guaranteed prize pools if you want, but just know that rostering him in cash games is like having unprotected sex with a stranger you just met on the outskirts of London: A thrilling proposition with negative long-term expected value.
Rodgers’ 6.4 YPA is his lowest mark as a starter, and his 254.9 passing YPG trails all of his other starting marks except for the 252.4 he accumulated in his first season as Brett Favre’s replacement and the 238.8 he accrued last year. This should go without saying, but Rodgers isn’t the QB1 stud he was in 2011 when he led the NFL with a 9.0 TD percentage and 9.2 YPA.
In the last 16 games, he has passed for 300 yards just twice and surpassed 30 fantasy points just once.
Of course, now that I just spent maybe 1,000 words treating Rodgers the way college bros do a frat house, I should say that he’s clearly having a good season. With his Week 8 performance, he’s now QB4 in PPG for the season:
His matchup is also promising. The Packers are 2.5-point road favorites with a Vegas total of 25.75 points. On the one hand, those circumstances haven’t been especially ideal for Rodgers. Per RotoViz:
On the other hand, the Packers are playing against the Titans, whose funnel defense is 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Over the last month, the Titans have had their four worst defensive performances of the year against QBs:
• Philip Rivers (Week 9): 24-33-275-2, 18.7 DK/FD pts.
• Blake Bortles (Week 8): 33-54-337-3, 32.7 DK and 29.7 FD pts.
• Andrew Luck (Week 7): 27-39-353-3, 30.8 DK and 27.8 FD pts.
• Cody Kessler (Week 6): 26-41-336-2, 24.7 DK and 21.7 FD pts.
You have to think that if Kessler and Bortles can throw for over 300 yards against the Titans in Tennessee then Rodgers can, right?
In terms of Plus/Minus, those last four performances collectively look like this:
Over the last 16 games, the Titans have allowed +3.7 DK and +3.0 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs — the second-highest marks of the slate.
Rodgers currently has the slate’s second-highest QB projection and slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
In summation:
- At some point, Rodgers is going to come to earth like a faulty 1980s Russian satellite.
- This week, Rodgers has the opportunity to outsize the Titans.
I’m not going to be the *sshole who goes broke short selling Rodgers every week — especially this week. He warrants strong GPP consideration.
I can’t believe I just said that.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
In Week 8, Tomth Brader finished as ‘merely’ the QB3 with 33.1 DK and 30.1 FD points as the Patriots on the road beat the Bills by 16 points. The hooded Sith Lord was moderately pleased.
Through four games, the 2016 NFL MVP — I have a crystal ball — leads the league with a 73.1 percent completion rate, 9.0 percent TD rate, zero percent interception rate, and 9.8 YPA. Brady leads all starting QBs with a 91.5 Total QBR (per ESPN).
Angry Tom is definitely doing his best to make America hate the Patriots again.
It almost goes without saying that Brady’s still the QB1 with 28.53 DK and 26.28 FD PPG.
Per our Trends tool:
With Brady, the Pats have scored 34 PPG and are yet to score less than their implied Vegas total in any game.
So Brady has some factors in his favor. If you’re a truther, it’s comforting that the Pats are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.5 points.
What isn’t comforting is that the Pats are playing against the Seahawks, who defensively are sixth in total and pass DVOA and unafraid to go low on vulnerable players, am I right, Dan?
Playing at home gives Brady an edge, but the Seahawks are basically still the Seahawks on defense even when they are on the road . . .
. . . and Brady’s home-field advantage hasn’t been significant over the last decade:
The Patriots have an edge, but we shouldn’t overvalue the fact that they’re playing at Foxborough.
But, by that same token, we shouldn’t overvalue Seattle’s pass defense. Brady has historically been very much himself against top-12 pass defenses . . .
. . . and against the Seahawks over the last five years Brady has been a stud:
Brady currently is projected for nine to 12 and five to eight percent ownership on DK and FD. On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, there was some discussion as to whether Brady will be chalky. At a minimum, we’re not anticipating heavy ownership, in part because of the matchup.
But, again, the matchup might not be something to fear. Over the last four games — or, framed differently, against QBs who aren’t travesties like Gabbert, Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Weeks 1-4) — the Seahawks have been exploitable:
On FanDuel, Brady has a slate-high 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
Ryan is the QB3 this season in PPG, and his 77.8 percent Consistency is one of the best in the NFL:
If you roster him, you probably want him on DK, where (despite his performance this year) he’s only $200 more expensive than he was in Week 1 . . .
. . . whereas he’s now $1,000 more expensive on FD:
Of course, it’s not a given that you should roster Ryan in the first place. The Falcons are implied to score ‘only’ 25 points on the road in what is currently a pick’em with the Eagles, who defensively are first in total and pass DVOA.
Even though Ryan benefits from reverse home/road splits . . .
. . . he’s done abysmally against top-six pass defenses the few times he’s played them on the road over the last half decade:
At the same time, Ryan has done well when he’s faced defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in the past. Schwartz was the Lions head coach in 2009-13, and during that time Ryan faced the Lions once with wide receiver Julio Jones active:
On the one hand, that’s an absurd sample of one. On the other hand, the Lions were still No. 9 in pass defense when Ryan gave them a bikini wax. There’s a precedent for Ryan destroying a good Schwartz pass defense when he’s throwing to Julio.
There’s a lot that could be said about the Falcons. They’re first in the NFL with 33.9 PPG, 3,863 total offensive yards, and 6.8 yards per play, and this season they’ve exceeded their implied Vegas totals by a ridiculous league-high average of 9.6 PPG, surpassing the Vegas mark in eight straight games.
Per Player Profiler, Ryan has been perhaps the best DFS QB of 2016:
Ryan has the potential to have a big game, but the matchup is unquestionably tough: The Eagles are holding QBs to 15.9 DK and 15.2 FD PPG. I doubt that you’ll be surprised to learn that our Pro Models don’t especially like Ryan this week.
Like Brady, Ryan has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and five to eight percent on DK and FD.
There’s No Place Like Home — Depending on Who Your Guest Is
This season, Brees is playing that sweet jazz music at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football:
On the season, Brees is the QB2 with 25.92 DK and 23.92 FD PPG across eight games — and at home . . .
. . . he’s finished as the QB2, QB4 DK/QB3 FD, QB1, and QB11 DK/QB10 FD in PPG:
Where was I?
Oh, yes, Brees at home: #ChalkLock — if not for . . .
As Mama Lynn would say, “Lord Almighty, me, oh my.”
This will be a contest of contrasts: Brees is one of the best home QBs in the NFL, but this season the Broncos are holding QBs to the fewest fantasy points (12.6 DK and 12.4 FD PPG) as well as lowest Opponent Plus/Minus values:
A couple of points:
- It’s debatable whether starting a QB against the Broncos is an instance of contrarianism — or stupidity.
- Take a look at that ownership.
Brees’ ownership will certainly be higher — at home against the Seahawks two weeks ago he had 4.8 and 5.1 percent ownership in the Millionaire Maker and Sunday Million, and he’s currently projected at five to eight percent ownership — but the ownership we generally see for QBs going against the Broncos is ridiculous. In this game, the season’s QB2 could be available at reduced ownership.
Of course, we can say the same thing about the QB1 and QB3, because they all have tough matchups, so . . . whatever.
It doesn’t help Brees that the Broncos defensively are second in total and pass DVOA but 20th in rush DVOA. In this game, Saints production could flow to the running backs like . . .
And, seriously, what’s the point of Saints production if it has nothing to do with Brees?
One factor in Brees’ favor is the state of the Broncos defense. It’s beat up. Cornerback Aqib Talib (back) and left end Derek Wolfe (elbow) are expected to miss the game. Other players, such as CBs Chris Harris, Jr. and Kayvon Webster, are currently on the Injury Report.
Monitor this situation using our Matchups tool: Right now we have WRs Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas going against Webster and CB Bradley Roby. Per Pro Football Focus, Webster has a below-average 69.4 coverage grade; Roby, a poor 42.3, ranking 108th out of 115 CBs. Given the injuries to the Broncos, Brees is in a position that isn’t quite as horrible as it seems.
At the same time, only one QB this season has scored at least 20 fantasy points against the Broncos: Cam Newton, all the way back in Week 1, with a lot of his production coming from his 11-54-1 rushing stat line. The Broncos are yet to allow 300 yards passing or three TDs to QBs in any game this season. Since 2015, only once have they allowed 300 yards passing and twice three TDs to QBs.
The Saints are 2.5-point favorites implied to score only 25.5 points and have outscored their implied point totals at home by 6.8 PPG.
Brees carries a lot of risk in cash games and a lot of perhaps unexpected potential upside in guaranteed prize pools.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Joe Flacco ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Flacco might not even be a replacement-level Joe, but the Browns can make almost anyone look like a superstar:
The Browns allow the league’s third-most fantasy points (22.9 DK and 21.5 FD PPG) to QBs, and in Week 2 Flacco had his best passing performance of the season against these Browns, completing 25 of his 45 passes for 302 yards, two TDs, and 21.2 DK and 18.2 FD points.
The Ravens are 10-point home favorites implied to score 27.5 points against the 0-9 Browns. Flacco is available only on the Thursday slates, but if you feel like throwing down on a weeknight you could definitely do worse.
Case Keenum ($5,000 DK, $6,600 FD): In the game with the slate’s lowest over/under, the Rams are two-point road underdogs implied to score 19 points against the Jets, whose funnel defense is 3oth in pass DVOA. This year Keenum has been almost not horrible against non-division opponents . . .
. . . and less than a month ago Keenum passed for 321 yards and scored four TDs total against a Lions defense that is comparably bad. Keenum’s ownership is projected to be zero to one percent.
Carson Palmer ($6,500 DK, $7,900 FD): On the one hand, the Cardinals are slate-high 13.5-point favorites implied to score a slate-high 30.75 points against a 49ers team that is allowing a league-high 32.5 PPG. Plus, even though the 49ers have allowed only 235 passing YPG to opposing QBs, they have outright sucked this year when playing outside of their division:
I guess there’s something about playing against QBs who aren’t Keenum, Drew Stanton, or an injured Russell Wilson that can make a defense seem worse.
On the other hand, the 49ers defensively are 19th in pass and 32nd in rush DVOA. There’s the possibility that Palmer could get funneled out of this game as his RBs go wild against the defense allowing the most fantasy points in the league to RBs.
Trevor Siemian ($5,600 DK, $7,200 FD): Last week, I said this:
His 32-point performance on 0.1 percent ownership in Week 3 wasn’t just an outlier. It was a big green middle finger flanked by three red knuckles and an exposed thumb:
I really hope that you see it. That’s what a DFS ‘f*ck you’ looks like.
This week, I’m saying that you might have another DFS finger headed your way.
It’s true that the Broncos are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 23 points. That’s horrible — but they have the potential to go off in New Orleans against a defense that has really given it up at the Superdome:
Even with Wilson’s Week 8 letdown, QBs have taken it to the Saints in NOLA:
And there’s more . . .
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
You probably already know this, but last year the ‘Aint’s defense allowed an NFL-record 45 TDs passing and was dead last in DVOA. This year, the defense is 28th in pass DVOA, allowing 21.3 DK and 19.1 FD PPG to QBs.
Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed slate-high +6.0 DK and +4.2 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs, as well as a 55.83 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 26.71 percent TD rate in the red zone, which are the highest marks in the slate. In every game but one this year they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing.
They’re allowing the third-most points in the league at 29.8 PPG.
He currently has FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight and zero to one percent on DK and FD.
Eli Manning ($5,900 DK, $7,600 FD): The Giants are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Bengals, who allow 22.6 DK and 20.9 FD PPG to QBs and defensively are 24th in pass DVOA. Eli plays on Monday night and is also perhaps the most ‘meh’ QB on the slate.
Alex Smith ($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD): Smith returns just in time to suck against another soft opponent.
If a QB plays against a pass-friendly Panthers funnel defense but doesn’t reach his salary-based expectations, is he really a QB?
Marcus Mariota ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD): Since the corpse of Andre Johnson retired . . .
. . . he’s been doing pretty well.
The Titans are 2.5-point home underdogs implied to score 23.5 points against the Packers, whose QB-friendly funnel defense is 16th in pass DVOA.
In his 10 career games as a road underdog . . .
. . . Mariota has been the Maserati.
Ryan Tannehill ($5,300 DK, $7,200 FD): The Dolphins are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 22.5 points against the Chargers, who after CB Jason Verrett‘s season-ending knee injury have allowed non-Siemian QBs to average 24.20 DK and 21.87 PPG.
Of course, those non-Siemian QBs are Mariota, Ryan, and Derek Carr, who are all . . . not Tannehill.
Dak Prescott ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD): He’s second in the NFL with an 83.8 Total QBR. It almost doesn’t matter who or where he’s playing:
To quote AC/DC: “If you want blood, you got it.”
He’s projected at two to four percent ownership.
Philip Rivers ($6,700 DK, $8,100 FD): Rivers is one of the chalkier QBs at nine to 12 percent projected ownership — but his floor projections of 5.8 DK and 5.5 FD points highlight the extent to which his matchup against the Dolphins isn’t a walk in the park.
The Dolphins are ninth in pass DVOA and have allowed QBs to pass for only 238.4 YPG this season. He’s also likely to be without WR Travis Benjamin (per the FantasyLabs News feed).
If you wanted to be underweight on Rivers, that would be fine with me.
Russell Wilson ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD): Last week, Wilson had perhaps his best game of the season, turning 26 pass attempts into a 20-282-2 line and adding three rushes for 10 yards and a TD. It was only his second positive Plus/Minus performance of the year.
This week, the Seahawks are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score 20.75 points against the Pats, whose funnel defense is 26th in pass DVOA and who have allowed 75 percent of opposing QBs to reach their salary-based expectations.
Plus, #SuperBowlRevenge — if you care about that sort of thing.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800 DK, $7,700 FD): When Ben is at home, you play him on DK . . .
. . . and also FD:
Ben has been a home QB his entire career, but his home/road splits have been really extreme ever since Antonio Brown became his primary WR, and he’s even better when he’s not playing a division rival:
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent and a 75 percent FD Bargain Rating. When Ben is at home, ownership is compulsory. He comes at defenses like . . .
That he’s playing outside of the division with low projected ownership is just a bonus.
The Super Models
This week, there are three guys (currently) at the top of our Pro Models:
• Cam Newton: $6,800 DK, $7,800 FD
• Jay Cutler: $5,300 DK, $7,000 FD
• Carson Wentz: $5,400 DK, $6,800 FD
Let’s roll.
The Godfather
D*mn right, I’m ripping off last week’s blurb!
One of my favorite lines from Francis Ford Coppola’s cinematic masterpiece goes something like this:
A Cam who doesn’t steal touchdowns from his running back can never be a real Cam.
In Week 8, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart had two goal-line TDs in Cam’s return to action after missing a game with a concussion. Unsurprisingly, Week 8 marked Newton’s worst performance of the season.
And, still unsurprisingly, Week 9 was Cam’s second-worst of the season, as he passed for only 225 yards, rushed for only 16, and totaled only one TD.
What’s the problem with Cam? He’s no longer the primary goal-line runner. Stewart is, and even Mike Tolbert has gotten some touches within the 10-yard line over the last four games. Additionally, the Panthers aren’t throwing the ball all that often within the 10, which basically means that Cam isn’t getting many premium opportunities to score.
If Newton is more cautious and/or the team uses him differently than it has previously, then Newton’s upside is limited. Last year, Newton was used extensively as a runner, accumulating 636 yards and 10 TDs on 132 attempts. The result was an MVP campaign in which he was QB1 overall with 25.94 DK and 24.94 FD PPG.
Ever since he entered the league, Cam has been at his best when he’s scored TDs as a runner:
It’s great that Newton is currently ‘Making the Four’ as the highest-rated FD QB in all of our Pro Models: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek. It’s great that Newton has the slate’s third-best FD Bargain Rating at 69 percent. And it’s great that Cam is cheap at home — a situation that has been good for Newton historically:
But the Panthers are implied to score only 23.5 points as three-point home favorites over the Chiefs, who are eighth in pass DVOA. The Chiefs aren’t pushovers. They’re allowing only 18.9 PPG to opponents.
For Newton, it comes down to this: If he isn’t supplementing his game with some rushing attempts, there’s not a lot of room in that phone booth to change into his Superman suit.
It’s Not You, It’s Them
In his two full games, Cutler has averaged 13.55 fantasy PPG for -1.88 DK and -0.22 FD Plus/Minus values with 50 percent Consistency.
Everything about that feels so ‘Cutler.’
He has basically one factor in his favor this week: He’s playing against the Buccaneers, who are allowing 294.4 passing YPG and 22.9 DK and 20.9 FD PPG to QBs.
The Bears are one-point road underdogs implied to score only 22.5 points.
Frankly, the less I write about Cutler, the better.
He’s the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales and Levitan Models.
“You Are the Wind Beneath My Wings”
Wentz isn’t having a great rookie year. It’s not horrendous . . .
. . . but it’s not great. Nevertheless, his matchup this week is great. The Eagles are implied to score 25 points at home in a pick’em with the Falcons, who are allowing 28.8 PPG to opposing teams as well as league-high marks in passing TDs (2.56 TD per game) and fantasy points (24.9 DK and 23.9 FD PPG) to QBs.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent and is the highest-rated DK QB in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models.
The Coda
Gabbert is somehow 13th in Total QBR with a 63.4 rating. Wentz is 29th with a 44.9. But those are just numbers.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
