This special Monday Night Football Slate Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for the Week 1 doubleheader. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL home page.
The Monday Night Football slate has some massive guaranteed prize pools to kick off the season. DraftKings is offering the Monday Night Showdown with a $3 entry fee and top prize of $250k, while FanDuel counters with the Monday Million contest with $200k up top for just $4.
Sam Bradford, QB
Drew Brees is the only quarterback in the slate with a DraftKings price above $6,000, but Bradford is in arguably the most favorable spot with the highest Projected Plus/Minus in Models. The Vikings’ implied total of 25.25 points is the highest in the slate, and they’re currently 3.5-point favorites (per our Vegas Dashboard). Bradford is at home against the Saints, who last year allowed the sixth-most DraftKings (20.5) and FanDuel (18.8) points per game (PPG) to opposing passers. The Saints were top-10 in passing touchdowns allowed (27) and fourth in passer rating allowed (98.1). They actually gave up a higher passer rating on the road (103.8) than at home (92.7), which is surprising given the Saints play in the Superdome (aka the Coors Field of NFL DFS).
Our new Correlations page suggests that Bradford can be stacked with teammates of varying positions. On a two-game slate, finding contrarian stacks will be one key to success. This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of MNF.
Drew Brees, QB
Brees and the Saints have the third-highest implied total (22.25) but are not far behind the Broncos (22.75). It’s a tough matchup on paper. The Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings (16.2) and sixth-fewest FanDuel (15.7) points per game (PPG) to opposing passers, the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns (21), and they had the 12th-most interceptions (14). Minnesota can also get after the quarterback — they were fifth in the NFL last season with 41 sacks — but they are facing a New Orleans offensive line that in 2016 was fifth with a 4.5 percent adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders).
Brees’ ownership rate is typically much lower on the road (5.7 percent) than at home (9.3), but it is notable that this game will also be played indoors. Even if he sees elevated ownership on a small slate, Brees is probably the most likely to hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings; he led the league in passing yards each of the last three years, five of the last six years, and seven of the last 11 years. That said, per our Trends tool, in similar situations on the road as an underdog, Brees has previously produced 19.73 DraftKings PPG with a -0.07 Plus/Minus and 50.0 percent Consistency Rating; he has scored less than 20 points in seven of 14 games.
Dalvin Cook, RB
With the second-highest floor at the position, Cook is in a prime spot to smash value at his DraftKings price of $5,900 as the Vikings’ featured back. The Saints were the worst in the NFL at defending running backs in the passing game last season (Football Outsiders), and the Vikings have talked up both his pass-blocking and receiving ability during training camp. The Vikings’ offensive line was terrible at run blocking last season, finishing 30th in adjusted line yards per attempt (3.64), but MNF could be a prime spot to take advantage of that recency bias with Cook’s ability to create explosive plays.
Mark Ingram, RB
C.J. Anderson is also in play for $200 cheaper, but the second-highest rated DraftKings RB in the Bales Model — with the crowd likely taking a stroll down Adrian Peterson #NarrativeStreet — is Ingram, who owns the top Projected Plus/Minus in the slate. Per our Saints Fantasy Preview, over the last three seasons he’s averaged 1,215 yards and 8.3 touchdowns from scrimmage as well as 41.7 receptions per year despite missing five games. That said, the matchup isn’t optimal. The Vikings allowed opposing rushers to accumulate the seventh-fewest fantasy PPG (21.8 DraftKings, 18.3 FanDuel). Since 2014, Ingram has averaged 14.91 DraftKings PPG with a +2.72 Plus/Minus and an impressive 71.4 percent Consistency Rating at a low 3.5 percent ownership in large-field GPPs. His lack of volume-security doesn’t make one feel warm and fuzzy in cash games — especially if he loses high-value touches to Peterson and receptions to Alvin Kamara –– but the leverage gained in tournaments might be worth it.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR
I touched on Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in the Prime Time Breakdown — and I still think they are both fantastic plays — but let’s pivot to the game no one wants to talk about on this slate. The Broncos-Chargers game has a lackluster 42.5-point over/under — it’s dropped 1.5 points since it opened — but that could also lead to lower ownership for a guy like Sanders. Last year the Chargers allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy PPG (33.9 DraftKings, 26.5 FanDuel) to opposing wide receivers, but Sanders leads the slate with a ceiling of 27.9 points. What is most appealing about this offense is how concentrated the target share will likely be with Sanders (25.8 percent) and Demaryius Thomas (25.9) dominating in 2016. In yards per route run (YPRR), Sanders barely trailed Thomas last year 1.91 to 1.97 (PFF), but he did fade down the stretch due to injuries. Sanders failed to reach 70 yards in either meeting with the Chargers last year, but so did Thomas, and there’s zero legitimate threat to steal targets underneath with Denver’s lack of depth at receiver and unproven tight ends.
Brandon Coleman, WR
In that PT Breakdown, I discussed Tedd Ginn, and speaking of pivots, a less-popular option in this offense could be (6’6’’ and 225 lbs.) Coleman in the slot. Ginn was already going to see significant snaps, but Coleman could easily become the primary beneficiary of the tough matchup for Michael Thomas and the Snead suspension. Brees has shown the ability to elevate his teammates, and because game stacks are probably undervalued, adding Coleman to a Saints stacks could make some sense to differentiate lineups.
Kyle Rudolph, TE
The position is pretty thin, but Rudolph stands out as easily the strongest bet for a receiving touchdown in this slate. Last year, he trailed only Jordy Nelson with his 24 red zone targets; his 22.6 percent target share last year is the highest mark among all tight ends on this MNF slate. He should continue to see volume and has massive touchdown equity; he’s viable all formats. Last year in comparable situations as a home favorite, Rudolph produced 13.28 DraftKings PPG with a +4.25 Plus/Minus and 50.0 percent Consistency Rating.
For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Team Preview Dashboard.
