The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
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Divisional Playoffs Tight Ends
“Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry, but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?”
— Professor Albus Percival Wulfric Brian Dumbledore
Zeus at Mount Olympus
No Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, or Greg Olsen: Last week we really missed Travis Kelce ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD). The extent to which Kelce is dominating the position right now can’t be overstated. He leads the slate with eight DraftKings and 10 FanDuel Pro Trends. For seemingly the 29th week in a row, he’s the highest-rated FD TE in the Levitan Model.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Kelce is fifth in the slate (and first among TEs) with 23.08 percent of his team’s targets over his last four games:
In the Chiefs’ Week 9 matchup with the Jaguars, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a groin injury and left the game. In the eight weeks since then, Kelce has been the team’s primary receiver. Per our Trends tool:
Of all the TEs left in the playoffs, Kelce has easily been the TE1 in points per game (PPG) over the second half of the season, and his Consistency has been excellent for the position.
This week the Chiefs are 1.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 22.5 points. That’s not a lot of points, but Kelce doesn’t need the Chiefs to do well to get his targets. With Kelce, matchup doesn’t matter too much — he smashes whatever’s in his way like beer cans on his head — but for what it’s worth he has a middle-of-the-road matchup against the Steelers, who this year have allowed 13.5 DK and 10.9 FD PPG to the position.
Unsurprisingly, Kelce has the position’s highest median projections as well as Projected Plus/Minus values. He’s in the top two in ceiling and floor projections and also FantasyLabs ownership projections.
Other TEs might outscore him this weekend, but he’s the slate’s lone elite TE.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Austin Hooper ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD) and Levine Toilolo ($2,500 DK, $4,600 FD): That Toilolo is actually more expensive on FD than Hooper pretty much says it all: These guys are interchangeably sh*tty.
The Falcons are currently four-point home favorites implied to score 27.75 points against the Seahawks, who this year have held TEs to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points (9.6 DK and 7.5 FD PPG) despite being 19th against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Only the Cardinals this year allowed fewer TDs to the position than the Seahawks’ three.
The last time Hooper had even double-digit yards was Week 9. The last time Toilolo had more than one reception was Week 6.
Zero to one percent projected ownership is too good for these guys.
Ladarius Green ($3,800 DK, $5,700 FD) and Jesse James ($2,800 DK, $4,500 FD): Green (concussion) missed last week’s game and is officially listed as doubtful for this week (per our NFL News feed). He’s almost certain not to play against the Chiefs.
In his place, James will endeavor to show us the meaning of “stone minimum.”
The Chiefs this year have allowed only 10.1 DK and 8.1 FD PPG to the position.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($3,600 DK, $5,200 FD): With the exception of one game missed with a concussion, Colton John during the regular season had a minimum of five targets each game since Week 4. Per RotoViz:
Last week, in a game the Texans easily controlled, CJF had a respectable four targets. In his 13 games (including postseason) as an integral part of the Texans offense, CJF has reached his salary-based expectations 76.9 percent of the time. In the three games in which he’s fallen short he hasn’t missed expectations by much.
He’s not in a great spot. The Texans are 15-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 14.75 points against the Patriots, who this year have held TEs to the eight-fewest fantasy points (10.8 DK and 8.5 FD PPG) in the league. Still, given his combination of Consistency, salary, projected ownership, and projected ceiling, Fiedorowicz deserves consideration as a contrarian pivot play.
The Super Models
As I write this, three non-Kelce TEs are atop our Pro Models:
• Jimmy Graham: $4,900 DK, $6,800 FD
• Jared Cook: $3,900 DK, $5,400 FD
• Jason Witten: $3,500 DK, $4,900 FD
I haven’t used a GIF yet, have I?
There we go.
The Imposter
Last week, the person pretending to be Jimmy turned four targets into a 3/37/0 crotch-punching display. The first half of the season was a long time ago:
The Seahawks are currently four-point road underdogs implied to score 23.75 points against the Falcons, who this year have allowed TEs to score the sixth-most fantasy points in the league: 15.3 DK and 12.2 FD PPG. It’s partially because of this matchup that Graham is the No. 1 TE in the CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for DK, where Graham has the position’s second-highest median and floor projections and Projected Plus/Minus values as well as the second-most Pro Trends.
So it seems like a good spot for Graham. It certainly doesn’t hurt that in January the Seahawks will be playing indoors. And maybe if they trail the Seahawks will use a pass-heavy approach that utilizes Graham — but probably not. Graham has extreme home/road and favorite/underdog splits, which when combined make him look like the worst f*cking TE ever:
The sample is small — but are you willing to pay up to learn firsthand if its representative?
Living Up to His Top-100 Draft Pick, Eight Years Later
In Week 11, Jared Cook ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD) returned from his usual mid-season injury vacation.
In the seven regular season games after his return, he had at least five targets four times, doing well when targeted:
In the wild card round, Cook did what he was expected to do: He exploited a Giants defense that was 26th in pass DVOA against TEs, turning his nine targets into a 5/48/0 stat line.
He has an even better matchup this week against the Cowboys, who are 30th in pass DVOA against TEs and this season have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position: 17.3 DK and 13.6 FD PPG. On the year, the Cowboys have allowed the second-most receptions (113) and third-most yards (1,132) to TEs. If Cook gets his targets, he has the potential to accumulate substantial receptions and yards.
And he’s likely to get his targets. No. 1 WR Jordy Nelson (ribs) is officially out, so more opportunities will be available — and Cook over the last month has amazingly been second on the Packers with 20.41 percent of the team’s targets:
The chalk du jour, Cook has the position’s highest projected ownership and is the No. 1 TE in the Bales Model for both DK and FD.
Dad Runner
Witten is the No. 1 FD TE in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models. He’s cheaper than everyone, second on the Cowboys with 18.03 percent of the targets over the last four games, on the field for every offensive snap, and a #DadRunner.
He’s been in the league since before you were born. Do you really need me to tell you more information about Granddaddy?
The Coda
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, I talked about how the Texans-Patriots game doesn’t seem like a good spot for Martellus Bennett ($4,000 DK, $5,900 FD). I won’t deny his potential. He has the position’s second-highest ceiling projections and a QB in Tom Brady who could randomly decide to give him three TDs. The Pats are 15-point home favorites, and they have the slate’s highest implied total at 29.75 points. And I’m not holding against Bennett that he had only two receptions and 10 yards on three targets against the Texans in Week 3, since that game was with rookie third-string QB Jacoby Brissett. This seems like a good spot . . .
. . . but the Texans are second in pass DVOA against TEs and this year have held the position to the third-fewest fantasy points in the leauge: 8.9 DK and 6.8 FD PPG.
The Patriots can likely win this game without needing to target Bennett heavily — and it’s not like the Patriots to attack an opponent repeatedly at a point of strength. Bennett has upside — but I have maybe three or four six-packs of Coors Lite at stake on the downside, so you know I’m invested in what I’m sayin’.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other divisional round positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
