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Conference Championships Wide Receivers
“The ruins were taking their time falling apart.”
— Billy Collins, “Greece”
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s WR Model Preview by Team FantasyLabs member Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 5:47.
The Big Two
For the last three seasons there’s been a clear three-man cohort of top-tier WRs in the NFL. Two of those WRs are still in the playoffs — the Big Two, who unsurprisingly are the most expensive WRs in the slate. They’re also the most productive (minus a certain WR with at least two broken ribs):
• Antonio Brown: $8,800 DK, $8,400 FD
• Julio Jones: $8,200 DK, $8,800 FD
Let’s shred this secondary.
Antonio Is Only as Good as His Road QB
About 90 percent of last week’s Antonio blurb is still applicable.
If you use our Trends tool to sort through all the WRs, you’ll see that not only has Antonio been the most productive receiver this year (including the postseason) . . .
. . . but he’s also easily been the best WR of the last three years:
Those Plus/Minus values are unbelievable for the position, as are the raw points per game (PPG) and Consistency Ratings. But . . .
. . . when the Steelers are on the road quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turns into a massive liability:
As a result, Antonio also suffers on the road. Per RotoViz:
As you may have surmised, the Steelers are on the road this week. They’re six-point underdogs implied by Vegas to score only 22.25 points against the Patriots, who over the last 12 months have held WRs to slate-low -1.4 DK and -1.1 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values.
Although John Proctor in his WR/CB Matchups piece suggests that “the matchup may not be as imposing as it seems” — and that could very well be true — the truth is that the matchup isn’t likely to be a reason for rostering Antonio. During the regular season the Pats were 23rd against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), so it’s possible that they aren’t even league-average against the pass, but there are indications that this could be a very subpar matchup for Antonio.
Per our Matchups tool, he’s likely to run many of his routes against cornerback Malcolm Butler, who actually shadowed him on 36 of his 40 routes when the teams played against each other in Week 7 (per Pro Football Focus). In that game, Antonio turned 11 targets into seven receptions and 106 yards. He also added one rush for 13 yards and finished with 21.9 DraftKings and 14.5 FanDuel points. Those raw totals seem good, but given his salaries Brown was essentially played to a draw, finishing the slate with +1.48 DK and -0.10 FD Plus/Minus values.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Butler shadowed him again on outside routes — and Butler is PFF’s No. 4 cover CB with a 90.5 grade in pass defense. And when Antonio moves into the slot he’s likely to run most of his routes against CB Logan Ryan, who plays most of his snaps on the inside and is PFF’s No. 11 cover CB with an 85.3 grade against the pass.
Nevertheless, even with the road and matchup concerns, Antonio’s an all-world talent who’s hard to fade, and he has the highest median as well as ceiling and floor projections. Plus, it’s the f*cking playoffs. In his five playoff games as Roethlisberger’s No. 1 WR . . .
. . . Antonio’s been targeted an average of 10.6 times per game, and he hasn’t disappointed.
Given the size of the slate, Antonio has FantasyLabs ownership projections that are relatively low, and he wasn’t one of the ‘chalk locks’ mentioned on this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod. Antonio might be the closest this slate gets to having a superstar contrarian play.
He’s the No. 1 WR in the Bales and CSURAM88 Player Models for FD, where he has a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends.
By the way, Eli Rogers ($3,400 DK, $4,900 FD) is incredibly cheap — so cheap in fact that he’s the No. 1 DK WR in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models. When he’s been targeted at least five times in a game this year . . .
. . . Rogers has actually been not awful.
It will be hard to find a WR cheaper than Rogers and likelier than him to have more than just a couple receptions.
The Moustachioed Assassin
While Julio (toe) was sidelined for Weeks 14-15, he returned in Weeks 16-17, rested on wild card weekend, and then produced a 6/67/1 stat line last week on limited snaps. He aggravated his injury in the fourth quarter of Atlanta’s divisional playoffs victory, but he’s reportedly expected to be “ready to rock” for this weekend even though he’s yet to practice this week. Monitor Julio’s status on our NFL News feed, but expect him to play.
With Julio, it’s all about volume. He’s been great this year when targeted at least eight times in a game:
Otherwise, he’s disappointed. In fact, when salary and ownership are considered, Julio had something of a mildly disappointing regular season:
There’s nothing wrong per se with Julio’s 2016 performance, but it didn’t provided much value.
The Falcons are currently five-point home favorites implied to score 32.5 points against the Packers, who during the regular season allowed WRs to score 35.5 FD and 43.3 DK PPG (the highest and second-highest totals in the league). This matchup is all sorts of delicious.
On the outside, Julio is likely to run the vast majority of his routes against CBs LaDarius Gunter and Damarious Randall. He might even see shadow coverage from Gunter, who covered him on 26 of his 38 routes in Week 8. On the one hand, Julio was targeted only five times earlier in the season against the Packers, finishing with a pathetic 3/29/0 stat line. On the other hand, Gunter last week was the primary cover man on Dez Bryant, who feasted with a 9/132/2 performance, and on the season Randall has a horrible PFF coverage grade of 41.2.
So Julio’s problem isn’t the matchup (his poor Week 8 performance notwithstanding). Ironically, Julio’s (potential) problem is his status as a home favorite. With the emergence of Atlanta’s double-headed running attack this year, Julio has been rendered something of an accessory when the Falcons are favored at home:
It’s not that Julio’s played poorly in this situation. More often than not, he’s actually reached his salary-based expectations. It’s just that the Falcons haven’t needed to rely on him to win games, and when they’ve given the ball to others Julio has been horribly unproductive.
Intriguingly, the Falcons have given Mohamed Sanu ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) action when they’ve been home favorites:
And in Week 8 Sanu had his best game of the season against the Packers, with seasonal highs in targets (10), receptions (nine), yards (84), TDs (one), and fantasy points (23.4 DK and 18.9 FD points).
Running the majority of his routes in the slot, Sanu is likely to have ample opportunity to exploit safety/slot CB Micah Hyde, who has been targeted on 20 percent of his routes this season and allowed 0.43 fantasy points per route — the second-highest marks in the slate.
Of course, the cover man with the slate’s worst marks is Hyde’s teammate Randall, who has been targeted on 23 percent of his routes and allowed 0.51 fantasy points per route. We’re expecting Taylor Gabriel ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD) to be the Falcons WR whom Randall most frequently defends, especially if Gunter shadows Julio. A big-play speedster, Gabriel trails only Julio and Antonio in the slate with his 0.51 fantasy points per route, and against Randall he has PFF’s top WR/CB matchup.
In Week 8 Gabriel had a 3/68/1 performance against the Packers, and like Sanu he has been lethal as a home favorite:
Gabriel has seven TDs in his last nine games.
Jones is the No. 1 FD WR and Sanu is the No. 1 DK WR in the Sports Geek Model. Gabriel has what looks like the best matchup in the slate.
All of the Falcons WRs are in play.
Fly Pattern
Nine route, go.
Julian Edelman ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD): For at least the second week in a row, Edelman’s the No. 1 WR in the Levitan Model for DK, where he’s second at the position with a 92 percent Bargain Rating.
The No. 1 WR for the best team in the league, Edelmanimal closed the season on a roll. Tight end Rob Gronkowski (back) missed Week 11, played seven snaps in Week 12, and then was placed on Injured Reserve in Week 13. In Weeks 11-17, Edelman was a top-six fantasy WR:
His hot streak has continued into the postseason. Last week Edelman turned his 13 targets into an 8/137/0 stat line against a Texans defense that was fifth in pass DVOA.
The Patriots are six-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Steelers, who this season were 12th in pass DVOA and managed to hold WRs to 25.2 FD and 33.0 DK PPG — the fourth- and fifth-lowest totals in the league.
The matchup isn’t great, but at this point even tough opponents don’t present a big challenge to Edelman because he’s getting so much volume. Over his last four games he easily leads the league with an unreal 35.38 percent of his team’s targets (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). When Brady throws the ball, the odds are high that it’s going to Edelman regardless of who’s covering him.
Primarily a slot receiver, Edelman is likely to run most of his routes against William Gay, who plays the supermajority of his snaps in the slot. Gay is PFF’s No. 11 cover CB with a pass defense grade of 85.3, so he doesn’t offer Edelman an easy matchup — but that might not matter. When the Pats played against the Steelers in Week 7, Edelman was still able to accumulate a 9/60/0 line on his 10 targets.
With only three three TDs on the season, Edelman seems to lack the upside desired from WRs in guaranteed prize pools. At the same time, he’s one of the safest WRs in the league. We’re projecting him for the highest ownership at the position.
As for Chris Hogan ($3,900 DK, $5,500 FD), Malcolm Mitchell ($3,700 DK, $4,700 FD), Michael Floyd ($3,300 DK, $4,700 FD), and Danny Amendola ($3,100 DK, $4,500 FD), one of these guys could score a TD. You’re guess could be better than mine.
The Coda
Jordy Nelson ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD) has two broken ribs. Davante Adams ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD) has a sprained ankle. Geronimo Allison ($3,800 DK, $5,400 FD) has a pulled hamstring.
The Packers are currently 5.5-point road underdogs implied to score 27.25 points against the Falcons, who this year allowed the sixth-most points (25.4) in the league to opposing teams and 38.7 DK and 31.1 FD PPG to WRs.
Randall Cobb ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD) is the only healthy Packers WR who plays snaps on a regular basis. Ever since returning on wild card weekend from a late-season ankle injury, Cobb has turned 15 targets into 12 receptions, 178 yards, three TDs, and 50.8 DK and 41.8 FD points as the WRs around him have suffered injuries. Cobb is the No. 1 WR in the Levitan Model for FD, where he leads the slate with a +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus.
You didn’t think I’d leave you without a GIF, did you?
Cobb or die.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other positional breakdowns for the conference championships:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
