The NFL Conference Championships Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Conference Championships Tight Ends
“We used to call it ‘Making the Eight.'”
— Robert Baratheon
Living Up to His Top-100 Draft Pick, Eight Years Later
When I started researching for this piece I had hoped that we’d finally have a player make the eight, but, alas, Jared Cook ($5,100 DK, $6,400 FD) is not the No. 1 TE in all four of our Pro Models for DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s the No. 1 TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models for only FD, where he has a slate-high seven Pro Trends and 89 percent Bargain Rating. Loser.
No Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, or Travis Kelce: It’s a wilderness out there.
You probably won’t be surprised to learn that Cook has the position’s highest median projections as well as ceiling and floor projections and FantasyLabs ownership projections.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Cook was mentioned as a ‘chalk lock’ for the slate. He will almost certainly be in the supermajority of lineups for cash games. I can’t believe I actually just typed that sentence, but a reality TV star was also just sworn in as President, and not many people would’ve predicted that when the NFL season started. Situations change.
In Week 11, Cook returned from his usual mid-season injury vacation.
In the seven regular season games after his return, he had at least five targets four times, doing well when targeted (per our Trends tool):
That Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating are utterly elite, especially for the position. On the one hand, you could say that this is a cherry-picked sample. On the other hand, a five-target threshold is low, especially given the circumstances in which Cook finds himself and his recent usage.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Cook has amazingly been fourth in the slate (and first among TEs) with 20.63 percent of his team’s targets over his last four games:
In that span, Cook has averaged 8.25 targets per contest with at least five targets in each game. He by far has the most usage of any TE in the slate.
And in the playoffs Cook has done what he was expected to do: He’s exploited two defenses that are weak against TEs. In the divisional round he dominated the Giants, turning his nine targets into a 5/48/0 stat line and 9.8 DK and 7.3 FD points. And then in the divisional round he destroyed the Cowboys, putting up a 6/104/1 line and 25.4 DK and 19.4 FD points on 11 targets.
Additionally, wide receivers Jordy Nelson (ribs), Davante Adams (ankle), and Geronimo Allison (hamstring) are all officially questionable to play this weekend and expected to be game-time decisions (per our NFL News feed). Even if they all play, they will likely be limited. Behind WR Randall Cobb and maybe running back Ty Montgomery, Cook might operate as one of the primary pass-catchers in the Packers offense this weekend.
The Packers are currently 5.5-point road underdogs implied to score 27.25 points against the Falcons. This game has an unbelievable 60-point Vegas over/under and could turn into a massive pass-heavy shootout. If that happens, Cook could capitalize from the extra targets he might see against a Falcons defense that this season has allowed TEs to score the sixth-most fantasy points in the league: 15.3 DK and 12.2 FD points per game (PPG).
Cook isn’t an elite player, but ever since Cobb’s ankle injury in Week 15 gave him the initial chance to earn more targets he has averaged 13.2 DK and 10.2 FD PPG. For this slate, he might as well be elite.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Levine Toilolo ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD) and Austin Hooper ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD): The apocalypse takes many forms.
The Falcons are currently five-point home favorites implied to score 32.75 points against the Packers, who are seventh in pass defense against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The last time Hooper had more than 10 yards was Week 9. The last time Toilolo had more than two receptions was Week 6.
Hooper did have a 5/41/0 performance against the Packers in Week 8 — so it’s possible for one of these guys not to suck — but rostering either Falcons TE is taking contrarianism to the extreme.
Sometimes touchdowns do fall from the sky like manna. More often they don’t.
Ladarius Green ($3,600 DK, $5,300 FD) and Jesse James ($2,700 DK, $5,400 FD): Green (concussion) hasn’t played since Week 15 and is still in the league’s concussion protocol. He’s officially listed as questionable. Surprisingly, he actually traveled with the Steelers to New England, where they are six-point underdogs implied to score a slate-low 22.25 points. So it seems as if Green has a chance to suit up in the AFC Conference Championship.
This season Green has played in only six games, the first two of which were essentially warm-up contests in which he played only 16 and 12 percent of the team’s offensive snaps — but after that his snap total and involvement in the offense increased. In his final four games, Ladarius was productive:
He will likely be limited if he’s active, but if Ladarius plays he deserves consideration in guaranteed prize pools. At a minimum, his presence in the slate would likely diminish Cook’s ownership.
If Green doesn’t play, then James will play in his place. Over the last four weeks, James as an injury fill-in has averaged four targets for three receptions and 38.5 yards per game. In the first nine games of the season (before Ladarius made his 2016 debut), James averaged 3.9 targets for 2.7 receptions, 19.1 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game.
Without Ladarius, James is likely to have between two and six targets. In this slate, that sadly passes as volumes. At least he leads the position with a 99 percent DK Bargain Rating.
During the regular season, the Patriots held TEs to the eighth-fewest fantasy points (10.8 DK and 8.5 FD PPG) in the league.
The Coda
This slate is so disgusting. Martellus Bennett ($3,300 DK, $5,500 FD) is the No. 1 TE in all four of our Pro Models for DK, where he leads the position with eight Pro Trends. Fresh off a 1/4/0 ‘performance’ against the Texans in the divisional playoffs, Bennett is the closest this slate has to an acceptable pivot play.
During the regular season, Bennett was actually more productive with tight end Rob Gronkowksi than without him (per RotoViz) . . .
. . . but Bennett at least on average is a decent TE. Amazingly, as a receiver he’s first on the Patriots in TDs (seven), second in yards (701), and third in targets (73) and receptions (55).
The Patriots are six-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Steelers, who during the regular season allowed the eighth-most targets (132) to TEs.
Bennett’s projected to have anywhere from four to 10 times less ownership than Cook. The thought of rostering Bennett hurts my brain — but Cook isn’t four to 10 times more likely than Bennett to score a TD this weekend.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other positional breakdowns for the conference championships:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
