The NFL Conference Championships Dashboard
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Conference Championships Running Backs
“The phoenix must burn to emerge.”
— Janet Fitch
A Few Words
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s RB Model Preview by FantasyLabs Co-Founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers some stone-cold dopeness in only 5:10.
The Big One
This could maybe be a tier of two, but when the RB1 is $3,100 DK and $1,500 FD more expensive than the RB2, the top cohort kind of creates itself.
It’s Le’Ve-OH-sa, not Le’Veo-SAH
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Le’Veon Bell ($10,500 DK, $9,900 FD) wasn’t mentioned as a ‘chalk lock’ by guests Evan Silva and Rich Hribar. That’s rare. For months, Le’Veon has been a regular ‘jam ’em in’ candidate. But this week is different, because . . .
- The dynamics of the small slate make Bell hard to roster, especially on DK, where he has an abominable -4.09 Projected Plus/Minus, in part because . . .
- Le’Veon’s matchup is subpar, as the Patriots defense during the regular season was fourth against the rush in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They also held RBs to the fifth-fewest fantasy points in the league: 20.8 DraftKings and 17.3 FanDuel points per game (PPG).
Ordinarily in a small slate Bell’s Le’Veownership would be unspeakably high — but this week his FantasyLabs ownership projections are (relatively) modest. We’re expecting him not to be among the slate’s two highest-owned RBs, which is amazing considering that he’s the only ‘elite’ RB left in the playoffs.
But that’s not to say that Bell will do poorly this weekend. He probably won’t. Bell has flat-out balled out this year, finishing the regular season as the RB1 in PPG (per our free Trends tool):
The Le’Veawesomeness has continued into the postseason, as Bell has averaged 29.5 carries and two receptions for 170 scrimmage yards and a touchdown per game. His 28 DK and 24 FD PPG in the playoffs is unbelievably high.
Scoreless in his first five games of the season, Le’Veon was a total beast to close the regular season. Per RotoViz:
And it’s not as if he was trash in the first five games, either.
It’s almost impossible to overstate how dominant Bell was this season. Despite missing four games, he led the entire NFL with 101 total evaded tackles (per Player Profiler). His 95.2 percent opportunity share also led the NFL. And he was fifth among all players (and first among RBs) with 6.3 receptions per game. (The studly David Johnson had ‘only’ 5.0 receptions per game.)
Facing the Patriots, the Steelers are now six-point road underdogs with a slate-low implied Vegas total of only 22.25 points. It seems like an all-around bad situation for Bell — and it would be nice if the Steelers had a higher total — but since becoming the best RB on the planet in 2014 Bell has still been amazingly productive in this situation even as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and wide receiver Antonio Brown have suffered from their negative home/road and favorite/underdog splits:
Even with his tough matchup, Bell is tied for first among RBs with seven DK Pro Trends and is second with 10 FD Pro Trends.
The following data says maybe all there’s to say about Bell this week: He has the position’s highest median and floor projections but not the highest ceiling projections. He’s the league’s best RB but perhaps not the slate‘s.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Ty Montgomery ($5,600 DK, $6,900 FD): In Ty’s six games without James Starks ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) during the regular season, he was inconsistent but productive:
Per our NFL News feed, Starks (concussion) has neither played nor practiced for the last six weeks and seems unlikely to play this weekend given that he’s still in the league’s protocol.
Even if Starks is out, Montgomery isn’t guaranteed to get the snaps or production of a workhorse. In fact, even when Starks has been out Montgomery has been workhorse-esque only intermittently:
• Week 6 (vs. DAL): 50.0 percent of snaps, 19.4 DK and 13.4 FD points
• Week 7 (vs. CHI): 69.0 percent, 22.6 DK and 17.6 FD pts
• Week 9 (vs. IND): 44.9 percent, 12.1 DK and 10.6 FD pts
• Week 15 (@ CHI): 83.6 percent, 33.3 DK and 29.3 FD pts
• Week 16 (vs. MIN): 62.7 percent, 8.0 DK and 6.0 FD pts
• Week 17 (@ DET): 46.7 percent, 9.1 DK and 7.6 FD pts
• Wild Card (vs. NYG): 57.7 percent, 9.8 DK and 8.3 FD pts
• Divisional (@ DAL): 77.6 percent, 26.1 DK and 23.1 FD pts
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Montgomery has recently played the most snaps of the team’s RBs and seems to be a core member of the Packers offense . . .
. . . but over the last four weeks he has earned only 44.32 percent of the team’s carries:
Montgomery has workhorse potential: He’s third on the team with 13.13 percent of the targets over the last four games, and he leads the team with six opportunities inside the 10-yard line over that span, but . . .
. . . Montgomery has also lost six such opportunities to QB Aaron Rodgers and fullback Aaron Ripkowski.
Montgomery is averaging 11 carries and 5.5 targets per game in the playoffs, so he seems to have a stable floor — as evidenced by his production as a lead back — even if he plays limited snaps this week.
In part, Montgomery has a high floor because of his ability as a receiver. While playing RB without Starks, Montgomery has averaged 6.5 targets per game. His pass-catching skills could come in handy this weekend. The Packers are five-point road underdogs implied to score 27.5 points against the Falcons. If this game turns into a shootout — it currently has a massive 60-point over/under — then Montgomery could benefit from a pass-heavy game flow.
The Falcons aren’t just bad against RBs. (During the regular season they were 29th in rush DVOA, allowing RBs to score 28.1 DK and 24.0 FD PPG — the fourth- and fifth-highest marks in the league.) The Falcons are also bad against RBs who can catch the ball. They’re 26th in pass DVOA against the position, and this season they allowed league-high marks in targets (141), receptions (109), yards (870), and TDs (six) to RBs.
There’s no doubting the matchup that Montgomery has. He’s highly likely to get his targets and at least a handful of carries. The question is whether he’ll get double-digit carries and a couple of goal-line opportunities. If he does, then he could finish the week as a top-two fantasy RB — just as he did last week.
Montgomery is the No. 1 DK RB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Dion Lewis ($5,300 DK, $7,000 FD), LeGarrette Blount ($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD), and James White ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD): After scoring no TDs during the regular season, Lewis exploded last week for three scores — one each as a rusher, receiver, and returner. It’s the playoffs. Anything can happen — sort of.
Over the last four contests, Lewis has reemerged as an all-around presence, averaging 14.5 carries, 3.25 targets, and 69.25 scrimmage yards per game. With this usage and production, DFS players are acting as if he’s the team’s clear lead back. We’re projecting him to be one of the highest-owned players in the entire slate.
Here’s the problem. In his four games with double-digit rushes, he’s yet to surpass 100 scrimmage yards (much less 100 yards rushing or receiving) or to catch more than two passes. If he doesn’t score a TD — and remember that he’s scored a TD in only one of eight games this year — he’s highly unlikely to reach his salary-based expectations now that his price has been elevated.
It’s not that Lewis has no chance to score a TD. Over the last four weeks he’s actually had substantial opportunities inside the 10-yard line, but . . .
. . . as you can see, Lewis is not the guy the Patriots have tended to rely on near the goal line. That’s Blount, who during the regular season led the NFL with 18 TDs rushing as well as both carries and TDs inside the five-, 10-, and 20-yard lines.
It’s true that over the last four games Lewis has asserted himself and is stealing significant carries from Blount, but nevertheless Blount actually still leads the Patriots with 43.7 percent of the team’s carries over that time:
In 17 games this year, Blount has scored TDs in all but four of them. He’s had double-digit carries in all but one. Over the last four weeks, he has scored four TDs — even though he didn’t score last week.
And (this probably doesn’t matter but) in Week 8 when Blount played against the Steelers (his former team) he had 24 carries and one reception for 134 scrimmage yards, a TD, and 29.4 DK and 25.9 FD points.
The Patriots are six-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Steelers, who during the regular season allowed RBs to score 27.2 DK and 23.3 FD PPG — the seventh- and ninth-highest totals in the league.
Over the last three years, Blount has been a TD machine when the Patriots have been home favorites:
With his reduced salary, Blount will be very close to reaching his salary-based expectations if all he does is get a TD.
Are you willing to bet that he doesn’t score?
Blount is the No. 1 RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models for DK, where he leads the slate with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
As for White, this week he needs to score 5.34 DK and 4.11 FD points to meet his salary-based expectations. Last week he got only one opportunity — which he turned into a TD, by the way — but over the last eight weeks (since Lewis returned) White has not once failed to surpass those point thresholds.
He’s risky given his recent usage, but White’s about as safe and upside-laden as a dirt-cheap RB can be.
And I just realized I’ve gone up to this point without using a GIF.
Problem solved.
The Coda
For the second straight week, Devonta Freeman ($7,200 DK, $8,000 FD) ‘makes the four’ as the highest-rated RB on FD, where he has a slate-high 12 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s also tied for the position lead on DK with seven Pro Trends.
After submitting one of the greatest ‘disappointing’ campaigns of all time — 1,541 yards and 13 TDs from scrimmage in 16 games — Devonta made his playoff debut last week with a ho-hum 125 scrimmage yards, a TD, and 22.5 DK and 20.5 FD points on 14 carries, five targets, and four receptions. (Yawn.)
The Falcons are currently five-point home favorites over the Packers and implied to score a slate-high 32.5 points in a game with a 60-point total. Although the Packers are fairly stingy against RBs — they allowed 22.0 DK and 19.1 FD PPG to the position during the regular season — they’ve struggled as road underdogs against teams with RBs who get double-digit carries:
Notice that Devonta is on that list. On the one hand, you can look at his Week 8 performance against the Packers and think that it’s fluky because he had limited yardage and two TDs. On the other hand, it’s nice to know that even when he doesn’t get a lot of yards Devonta can still produce, right?
Devonta leads the team with eight opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games and nine TDs in the seven games since the Falcons’ Week 11 bye. His TD-making upside remains intact.
In his six games this year as a home favorite against a non-divisional opponent, Devonta has been an absolute beast:
Freeman doesn’t lead the position in median and floor projections, but he does have the highest ceiling projections.
If you want to pivot away from Freeman (for some ungodly reason), teammate Tevin Coleman ($4,800 DK, $6,300 FD) is a strong option. There’s nothing wrong with a RB who has 12 TDs in 14 games, amirite? He’s the cheap low-owned high-upside option for exposure to Atlanta’s offense.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other positional breakdowns for the conference championships:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
