NFL DFS and betting analyst Chris Raybon previews every Week 3 NFL matchup below. He highlights cash-game and GPP plays for each game before revealing his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Cardinals at Jaguars
DFS Plays
Kyler Murray is the overall QB1 this week as he faces a Jaguars defense that got shredded by Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater for a 70.1% completion rate, 9.2 yards per attempt and 309.5 passing yards per game with four total touchdowns and no interceptions.
DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, ribs) mostly lines up on the left and would see a lot of second-year cornerback C.J. Henderson, who has allowed 5-of-6 completions for 63 yards and a touchdown this season. If Henderson is out, Hopkins would face second-round pick Tyson Campbell, who has allowed 9-of-12 for 110 yards and a touchdown this season.
Rondale Moore’s percentage of routes run per dropback increased from 39% in Week 1 to 59% in Week 2. Through two weeks, Moore has been targeted on 13 of his 38 pass routes, an absurd 34.2%. He’s a GPP-winning eruption waiting to happen.
Christian Kirk’s rate of routes run per dropback increased from 61% in Week 1 to 73% in Week 2, but he’s only averaging 4.5 targets per game. He’s still in play as a pivot off Hopkins and Moore and is the superior option to A.J. Green, who is averaging only 5.8 yards per target — barely up from last season’s 5.0.
After catching 7-of-7 targets for 94 yards against the Vikings last week, Maxx Williams has some large-field GPP appeal against a Jags defense that is allowing 9.5 schedule-adjusted targets per game and ranks 21st in DVOA to tight ends.
Arizona’s backfield is a ceiling-capping committee where Chase Edmonds has out-touched James Conner, 29-24, and both have yet to find the end zone on 53 combined touches.
This is a smash spot for the Cardinals defense against Trevor Lawrence. The Cardinals have dialed up the blitz 41.0% of the time through two weeks, and Lawrence is just 2-of-13 passin for 42 yards with no touchdowns, two interceptions and two sacks.
Marvin Jones Jr. is averaging 10.0 targets per game and looks to have taken his place atop the pecking order at wide receiver. He’ll line up most against Arizona’s Robert Alford, however, who has allowed just 54 yards on 11 targets, so I’m still keeping Jones Jr. off my cash roster. The Cardinals have allowed four-plus catches and a TD to four different wide receivers through two weeks, so Jones Jr., D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. are all still in play for GPPs.
In Week 2, James Robinson’s snap rate increased to 73% from 63% in Week 1, and he out-touched Carlos Hyde, 14-2. I’d still be hesitant to play him in GPPs given Lawrence’s struggles with the blitz. The Cards have also yet to surrender to TD to a running back on 54 touches.
- Cash plays: Cardinals DST
- GPP plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk, Maxx Williams, Marvin Jones, D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault
Betting Pick
This game is a hard pass for me. Kyler Murray is 13-7-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog but just 4-8 ATS as a favorite. Urban Meyer’s Jags are 0-2 ATS and have failed to cover by an average of 12.25 points per game. \
Pick: Pass
Colts at Titans
DFS Plays
Derrick Henry is the top RB play on the slate against a Colts defense allowing a healthy 4.8 yards per carry and 8.6 yards per catch to RBs.
Julio Jones rewarded those who bought low with a 6-128-0 line that could have been bigger if he didn’t have a TD overturned, but this is shaping up like more of an A,J. Brown week. Colts slot corner Kenny Moore has allowed 12-of-13 completions for 149 yards, 1 TD and a 149.1 passer rating. Chester Rodgers (#RevengeGame alert) has emerged from the special teams doldrums to become the Titans No. 3 receiver, but Brown has still spent 44% of his time in the slot while Jones has lined up inside only 10% of the time.
In his last 14 starts, Carson Wentz has taken 56 sacks, thrown 16 picks and fumbled 11 times. He shoveled a pass to the Rams defense at the goal line last week. He also now has two bum ankles. The Colts will use some combination of Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley if Wentz can’t go. Henry-Titans DST is the top RB-DST stack on the board this week.
Second-round rookie corner Kristian Fulton followed D.K. Metcalf for much of last week and could do the same against Michael Pittman Jr., so even though I like the player, I’m selling high on last week’s 8-123-0 line and fading him this week. Though he did allow a TD, Fulton has still limited opponents to 4-of-12 completions for 83 yards and has broken up two passes. The Colts love to spread the ball around and are having issues at quarterback, so I’m not touching Zach Pascal or Parris Campbell, either.
Jonathan Taylor has a great matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 24th in rushing DVOA and 23rd on targets to running backs, but he’s flirting with the RB1 danger zone due to a snap rate of 50% through two games. If the Colts can’t keep it close, this could be a Nyheim Hines bounce-back spot, but he’s also not worth the risk after seeing just two touches despite a 37% snap rate last week.
- Cash plays: Derrick Henry
- GPP plays: A.J. Brown, Titans DST
Betting Pick
This is another pass for me. It’s similar to the Jaguars-Cardinals game in that the underdog is in a good buy-low spot in theory, but Carson Wentz is just 15-26 ATS since the start of 2018.
The Colts are well-coached enough to keep it close with their familiar division rival, but the Titans are explosive enough to run away with this game despite their shaky defense.
Pick: Pass
Ravens at Lions
DFS Plays
T.J. Hockenson could be the third straight TE to go off on the Ravens after they gave up 10-105-1 to Darren Waller in Week 1 and 7-109-1 to Travis Kelce in Week 2. Hockenson has eight catches and a TD in both games this season. He’s the top cash-game play at TE.
Quintez Cephus led Lions receivers with an 89% snap rate last week and has also caught a TD in both games while averaging 6.5 targets. He is worth a GPP dart throw given his salary is still near the minimum, and is playable in cash on DraftKings at just $3,900. The Ravens have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (210.5).
The Ravens defense tends to struggle without Brandon Williams (questionable, reserve/COVID-19), but D’Andre Swift (questionable, groin) has barely out-touched Jamaal Williams, 31-27. Williams would be a strong play if Swift is out.
The Lions have been predominantly a two-deep shell team under new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, but will he be willing to do that against Lamar Jackson? If he does, it will be another big running week for Jackson. If Glenn dials up more single-high, the Lions’ depleted cornerback corps is not going to be able to handle Marquise Brown on the outside. The Lions are allowing a league-high 157.0 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. The Lions are also No. 32 in DVOA against tight ends, so this is a get-right spot for Mark Andrews.
Ty’Son Williams has handled 51% of backfield touches through two weeks and has split red-zone work with Latavius Murray. I’d rather not play Williams with guys like Saquon Barkley are within his price range.
- Cash plays: T.J. Hockenson, Quintez Cephus
- GPP plays: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews
Betting Pick
I considered Baltimore as a teaser piece earlier in the week, but with the team’s COVID issues, this is a pass for me.
Pick: Pass
Football Team at Bills
DFS Plays
Antonio Gibson has a tough matchup against a Bills defense allowing 66.5 total yards per game to opposing RBs, but he is too cheap for a RB averaging 19.0 touches per game. Washington will likely lean on its running game with Taylor Heinicke going against a tough defense on the road.
I’m fading Terry McLaurin this week after his 11-107-1 dismantling of James Bradberry and Co. The Bills likely won’t single-cover McLaurin after his success against Bradberry in the first half last Thursday.
Josh Allen has been underwhelming thus far this season, but this is a decent spot for him against a Wahsington defense allowing 293.0 passing yards and 47.0 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. I’d stack him with Stefon Diggs, as Washington is allowing 11.5 schedule-adjusted targets per game to WR1s, tied for third-most. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders remain in play based on usage; both are running a route on roughly 90% of Allen’s dropbacks. Dawson Knox should be on the field more going forward after the BIlls had more success in 11 personnel last week than they did with four-wide looks in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, but Knox has to be more productive before he can be deemed playable.
Zach Moss’ activation ate into Devin Singletary’s goal-line usage, with the former vulturing two TDs. I’m avoid this situation with a committee likely going forward.
- Cash plays: None
- GPP plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Gibson
Betting Pick
I like Washington to +7 here. The Football Team has lost by more than seven points under Ron Rivera just four times in 18 regular-season games, and the familiarity between him and Sean McDermott — who was his former defensive coordinator in Carolina — should keep things tight.
Pick: Washington +7 (to +7)
Saints at Patriots
DFS Plays
Bill Belichick’s defense has stifled opposing passers to the tune of 6.9 yards per attempt with one TD and five interceptions, so the only playable Saint is Alvin Kamara. The Pats have allowed 28.0 touches for 141.0 total yards per game to opposing backs, though they have held them out of the end zone. I’d still prefer Dalvin Cook playing through a questionable tag to Kamara this week, as Belichick will likely build his game plan around slowing down Kamara.
Damien Harris will usually be the only playable Patriot until we know more about Mac Jones and the passing game, but this week I’m fading him, too, as the Saints are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and Harris is a zero in the passing game.
This game basically boils down to: Play either DST or stay away.
- Cash plays: None
- GPP plays: Alvin Kamara, Saints DST, Patriots DST
Betting Pick
This is a tough game to handicap because we know more about the coaches than the teams themselves. Sean Payton is excellent coming off a loss (47-26 ATS) while Belichick is excellent in Foxboro (95-59 ATS with a spread of -17 or less since 2003).
I would play the under, but I’m worried about Jameis Winston turnovers, and about the potential curveball of Belichick going pass-heavy against the Saints stout run defense despite his rookie quarterback.
Pick: Pass
Chargers at Chiefs
DFS Plays
Austin Ekeler is in a smash spot versus the Chiefs’ 32nd-ranked defense in rushing DVOA. Keenan Allen is also too cheap on FanDuel at $6,900 and is viable in cash games.
Justin Herbert has high upside against the Chiefs as well in what could be a shootout. The Chiefs are allowing 338.0 total yards per game to QBs, and Herbert should see less pressure with Frank Clark (hamstring, doubtful) likely to miss
Mike Williams’ price is climbing, but he still has to be considered in Herbert stacks. Williams is averaging 6.5 catches for 86.5 yards and 1.0 TDs per game.
Jared Cook got a TD called back last week, keeping his price down. He has run a route on 64% of Herbert’s dropbacks this year in is in play in GPPs as well.
Nothing much needs to be said about Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who are top GPP plays every week. The Chargers are 18th in DVOA vs. WR1s and 28th vs. TEs, so I’d lean Kelce if choosing between him and Hill.
Mecole Hardman is running a route on a career-high 81% of dropbacks this season and is a sneaky play as well.
This is a buy-low spot for Clyde Edwards-Helaire at just $4,800 on DraftKings. The Chargers have allowed 181.0 yards and 1.0 TDs on 30.0 touches per game to opposing backfields. Edwards-Helaire isn’t safe enough to play in cash games, though, as his fourth-quarter fumble last week cost the Chiefs the game.
- Cash plays: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen
- GPP plays: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Jared Cook
Betting Pick
Even if the Chargers can’t pull off the upset here, they have a great chance of covering: Including playoffs, only one of the Chiefs’ last 10 wins has come by seven or more points.
Pick: Chargers +7 (to +7)
Falcons at Giants
DFS Plays
Saquon Barkley’s season starts now. He’s had 10 days to rest after playing 8% of the snaps last Thursday, and he gets a matchup aaginst a Falcons defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 8.5 targets per game to opposing RBs.
Daniel Jones is also a high-upside GPP play against a Falcons defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. With Kenny Golladay (hip) and Evan Engram (calf) banged up and Kadarius Toney eating into Darius Slayton’s snap count, the top stacking partner for Jones is Sterling Shepard.
The Giants may not employ the same scheme against Calvin Ridley as they did Terry McLaurin after McLaurin hung an 11/107/1 line on them, but Ridley is still in play for GPPs based on his alpha No. 1 receiver status.
This could be a smash spot for Kyle Pitts, as the Giants are allowing the second-most schedule adjusted targets (10.5) and sixth-most schedule-adjusted yards (77.0) to TEs. Pitts’ target share could increase with Russell Gage (ankle) ruled out.
Cordarrelle Patterson has earned his way into the Falcons backfield, and has looked better than Mike Davis. Patterson is worth a GPP flier here against a Giants defense that has allowed 162.5 total yards and 1.0 TDs per game to opposing RBs. Patterson is averaging 10.5 touches on a 33% snap rate, but there’s talk of a more even split going forward.
- Cash plays: Saquon Barkley
- GPP plays: Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts
Betting Pick
After fading the Falcons as a favorite against the Eagles in Week 1 then vs. the Buccaneers in Week 2 (via tease), it’s finally time to buy low on Atlanta — Arthur Smith showed he was a brilliant offensive mind in Tennessee, and I expect the first-time head coach’s team to improve as the season progresses.
The reason I faded Atlanta in Weeks 1-2 was that it was badly outmatched in the trenches (correctly evaluating the offensive line vs. defensive line battle on both sides is a key to being a profitable long-term NFL bettor). But in this Week 3 matchup, the Falcons should be able to hold their own against a Giants front that has brought down the quarterback only three times in two games. And on the defensive side, the Falcons won’t be great, but the matchup against the Giants’ bottom-tier offensive line is substantially better than the top-tier Eagles and Bucs units.
The Giants covered on the road last week, and now they’re getting a field goal (or more at some books) at home. This has been the formula to betting the Giants: Giants stink at home, go on the road and surprise people, and then come back down to earth just in time to be overrated for what turns out to be an ugly showing in the Meadowlands of New Jersey.
Case in point: According to our Action Labs data, Daniel Jones is 10-4 against the spread on the road, but just 4-10 ATS at home.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta wins this game outright. I like the Falcons on the spread at a field goal or better.
Pick: Falcons +3 (to +3)
Bears at Browns
DFS Plays
The Justin Fields era begins with him as the top QB value on the board. The 11th overall pick will face a Browns defense that got shredded by Tyrod Taylor for 10-of-11 passing for 125 yards and a TD while also allowing him to score a 15-yard TD on the ground. Fields is the top cash play at QB and can be stacked with Allen Robinson or Darnell Mooney.
The Browns have allowed 2.9 yards per carry and 58.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, so David Montgomery is a fade this week.
The Bears have allowed only 3.8 yards per carry and 70.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, so I’m fading Nick Chubb coming off back-to-back weeks with 90-plus scrimmage yards and at least one TD. Chubb is averaging only 14.5 touches per game.
I’m also fading Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham in Beckham’s first game back. With Jarvis Landry out, Beckham will be easier for the Bears to take away. Donovan Peoples-Jones has been a full-time player, but could see his playing time decrease after a miserable start to the season. Sixth-round pick Demetric Felton looked electric last week and is a player to watch. He caught two passes for 51 yards and a TD last week and should enter the lineup as Landry’s direct replacement in the slot. He’s worth a GPP flier.
- Cash Plays: QB Justin Fields
- GPP plays: WR Allen Robinson, WR Darnell Mooney, RB/WR Demetric Felton
Betting Pick
I love buying low on Justin Fields and the Bears in this spot.
The Browns’ struggles against Tyrod Taylor were worrisome, and even when taking into account Davis Mills’ snaps, they still allowed the Texans to go 8-of-14 on third down. For the season, the Browns have allowed an NFL-worst 63.0% third-down conversion rate.
The Bears are ninth in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA and should be able to keep it close with the Browns’ run-heavy offense.
Pick: Bears +7 (to +7)
Bengals at Steelers
DFS Plays
Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd should get a boost with Tee Higgins (shoulder) listed as doubtful. Chase is averaging a 3.5/77.5/1.0 line through two weeks while Boyd is averaging 5.0/52.5/0.0. Chase is playable in GPPs everywhere. I’d only play Boyd on full-PPR sites.
Joe Mixon is a volume-based GPP play. He;s averaging 27.0 touches per game, but the Steelers defense is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and 58.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields.
The Bengals defense is a sneaky play against Ben Roethlisberger and the maligned Steelers offense that will be without Diontae Johnson (knee). The Steelers are averaging just 5.3 yards per play, 20th, while the Bengals are allowing just 4.5 yards per play, fourth-best.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool are nice GPP plays with Johnson out. I wouldn’t trust James Washington, who is not guaranteed to inherit Johnson’s role, as the Steelers could go with more heavy personnel featuring tight ends Eric Ebron and Pat Freiermuth.
The prospects of more heavy formations (and potentially more of fullback Derek Watt) and a 97% snap rate keep Najee Harris in play in GPPs, but the floor is too low for cash, in my opinion, against a Bengals defense that has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per reception to opposing running backs.
- Cash plays: None
- GPP plays: Najee Harris, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Bengals DST
Betting Pick
This is an under game for me.
Steelers-Bengals has seen more than 44 points only twice in the past 10 matchups — and in only 32% of matchups in Ben Roethlisbgerger’s career. The absences of Bengals WR Tee Higgins and Steelers WR Diontae Johnson ding each offense and offset the Steelers’ loss of T.J. Watt on defense in terms of the projected total.
The Steelers are likely to use more heavy formations, if not because of the absence of Johnson, then to get their stagnant running game going, And the Bengals are likely to be conservative on offense with Higgins out and Joe Burrow coming off of a three-interception game.
Pick: Under 43 (to 43)
Dolphins at Raiders
DFS Plays
Jon Gruden apparently thinks Peyton Barber is a thing despite his 3.5 yards per carry average. Barber got 13 carries to Kenyan Drake’s seven last week, though Drake did catch five passes while Barber went catch-less. The Dolphins have allowed 159.5 total yards and 1.5 total TDs, so Drake is worth a GPP flier on the off chance that Gruden realizes the error in his ways. Josh Jacobs (ankle) is listed as doubtful.
Derek Carr is playing well and shook off an ankle injury last week, but save for Darren Waller, I still want nothing to do with the Raiders passing game this week in what could be a conservative game script against a backup QB in a game with a falling over/under.
Raiders cornerback Casey Hayward has helped his new team with a 90.2 PFF coverage grade, which leads all corners. He hasn’t allowed a catch on five targets, but he’s played only one snap in the slot. That could mean a tough go for Devante Parker and/or Will Fuller while Jaylen Waddle escapes Hayward’s coverage in the slot. Waddle is averaging a 5.0/54.5/1.0 line on 6.5 targets per game. Jacoby Brissett plays conservatively, so I don’t see Waddle’s production getting impacted much with the change in quarterback with Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) on IR.
The Raiders are allowing just 28.0 schedule-adjusted yards per game to tight ends, so Mike Gesicki remains unplayable.
Mtles Gaskin has handled just 23-of-44 Dolphins backfield touches and is averaging just 11.5 touches per game; he’s a fade so long as he remains stuck in a three-way committee with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed.
- Cash plays: None
- GPP plays: Kenyan Drake, Darren Waller, Jaylen Waddle
Betting Pick
I like the under here.
Miami’s combined scores are 33 and 35, while the Raiders’ are 60 and 43 … but the 60 came in that wild game against the Ravens that was 17-10 entering the fourth quarter.
I also played Miami, as it’s a great buy-low spot for the Dolphins and a great sell-high spot for the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been a difference-maker at QB, and Jacoby Brissett should be better with a week to prepare as the starter after he looked sloppy in relief of Tagovailoa last week. Meanwhile, Jon Gruden is just 25-38 (40%) ATS after a win and 8-18 (31%) ATS coming off of a multi-game winning streak since 2003.
You also have the blowout bounce-back in effect for MIami. Since 2003, underdogs coming off a blowout are 38-20-3 (66%) ATS the following week against favorites who aren’t coming off a bye week.
Picks: Under 44 (to 44), Dolphins +4 (to +3)
Jets at Broncos
DFS Plays
Courtland Sutton posted 159 receiving yards in the first game without Jerry Jeudy, but I’m fading the Broncos passing game this week due to game script concerns. Despite a -24 point differential, the Jets are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs, the third-fewest half-PPR points to opposing WRs and the 13th-fewest half-PPR points to TEs.
The top play here is Javonte Williams, who seemed to be favored as the game wore on last week. Melvin Gordon is worth a look as well, but I expect him to trend downward as the season progresses.
The Jets offense is averaging 10.0 points per game, so no one on their offense is playable against an elite Broncos defense. It’s Broncos DST or bust.
- Cash plays: None
- GPP plays: Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon, Broncos DST
Betting Pick
I grabbed this under at 43 early in the week and still like it down to 41.
The Jets have already allowed 10 sacks, which is great for killing drives and hitting unders. And with Zach Wilson coming off a four-pick game, coaches will preach being conservative this week, which could mean more sacks and punts and fewer turnovers (which can sometimes cause issues for unders if they happen too close to the offense’s end zone).
The Broncos have allowed just 13 points in both games, and it could have been less. In Week 1, the Giants got a TD in garbage time as time expired, and last week, the Jaguars got a kickoff return TD from Jamal Agnew.
The under is also 30-20-1 (60%) in Teddy Bridgewater’s career.
Pick: Under 41.5 (to 41)
Buccaneers at Rams
DFS Plays
Coming off two straight games with at least seven catches, 100 yards and a TD, Cooper Kupp is a steal at his price in DFS and is the top cash play at WR.
The Bucs have a talented defense but they play single-high and will give up production to receivers, especially since teams tend to avoid the run against their stout front. Tampa Bay has allowed the most catches (48) and second-most yards (490) in the league to WRs.
Robert Woods saw his snap rate jump back up from 77% to 98% last week. Van Jefferson also played 92% of the snaps. Jefferson only has three catches in two games, though, and could start losing playing time to DeSean Jackson, whom McVay wants to get more involved.
Tyler HIgbee disappeared last week, but is still running a route on 85% of dropbacks, keeping him in play for GPPs.
I’d fade the Rams’ running game this week even if the cheap Sony Michel fills in for Darrell Henderson (questionable, ribs). The Bucs are allowing just 44.0 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. Matthew Stafford, however, is a sneaky play in a potential pass-heavy shootout script.
For the Bucs, Tom Brady is worth a contrarian play at QB after throwing nine TDs in the first two games. The absence of Antonio Brown (reserve-COVID-19) should concentrate the targets more around Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. Godwin would likely see the most of Jalen Ramsey if Ramsey continues to play inside more in the STAR position, though it’s possible they actually use him against Gronkowski at times. Still, all three are viable GPP options.
The Rams invite the run, but I’m fading the unpredictable Bucs backfield — especially with Ronald Jones coming out of the dog house to eat into Leonard Fournette’s snaps last week, but Fournette has still run a route on 85% of the dropbacks this season, putting him in play in GPPs.
These are two good defenses, but the total for this game is 55.5, so I’m fading both in DFS.
- Cash plays: Cooper Kupp
- GPP plays: Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski
Betting Pick
I grabbed the Bucs at +1.5 but now they’re favored, so I’d stay away unless this game got back down to a pick’em or better for Tampa Bay — Tom Brady is 25-9-2 (74%) ATS as an underdog or pick’em since 2003.
I expect the Bucs to adjust on offense after losing a close game to the Rams last year, and Matthew Stafford still has to prove he can beat good teams. Stafford is just 23-54 straight up against teams that entered the game with a winning record.
Pick: Bucs at pick’em or better
Seahawks at Vikings
DFS Plays
Kirk Cousins is averaging 297.5 passing yards and 17.5 rushing yards per game and has five TDs in two games. He’s one of the few pocket passers in play for GPPs.
Justin Jefferson should see the most of struggling cornerback Tre Flowers, who has allowed 7/130/1 and a 155.8 passer rating on nine targets this season. He’s my favorite GPP play among him and Adam Thielen, but the latter is in play as well in what is projected as a close, high-scoring game.
K.J. Osborn is viable in cash games thanks to a salary that is still near the minimum. Osborn is averaging a 6.0/83.5/0.5 line on 6.5 targets per game and should be able to take advantage of another pass-heavy script.
Dalvin Cook (questionable, ankle) is in play as a pivot off Derrick Henry if he suits up. Cook is averaging 25.0 touches per game and Seattle’s defense just allowed over 200 scrimmage yards and three TDs to Henry last week.
This is a smash spot for Russell Wilson against a Vikings defense allowing 77.8% completion rate and 10.5 yards per attempt and six total TDs to quarterbacks through two games. Left cornerback has been a trouble spot for Minnesota, with Bashaud Breeland getting benched in Week 2. Tyler Lockett lines up on the right more than D.K. Metcalf, and though both are in play in GPPs, we may see Lockett out-produce Metcalf for the third straight week.
Gerald Everett is worth a GPP flier against a Vikings defense that gave up a career day to Maxx Williams last week (seven catches for 94 yards). Everett has been quiet, but ran a route on 76% of Wilson’s dropbacks last week — a borderline elite number for a TE.
Chris Carson was lucky to salvage his day with two rushing scores but is still seeing 82% of the backfield touches. After Seattle allowed a big comeback last week, Carson could see more work early this week. He’s in play in GPPs against a Vikings defense that has allowed 140.0 yards and 0.5 TDs per game to opposing running backs through two weeks.
- Cash plays: K.J. Osborn
- GPP plays: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Gerald Everett, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
Betting Pick
Minnesota is two plays away from being 2-0 and they’re a good teaser play this week. Seattle rarely blows teams out, but I’d rather not play the Vikings as a short dog because their kicking nightmare from last season has spilled over into this one.
Pick: Vikings tease from +2 to +8
DFS Cash Lineups
DraftKings
- QB Justin Fields $5,200 at CLE
- RB Derrick Henry $8,600 vs. IND
- RB Austin Ekeler $7,200 at TEN
- RB Saquon Barkley $6,500 vs. ATL
- WR Cooper Kupp $6,800 vs. TB
- WR Quintez Cephus $3,900 vs. BAL
- WR K.J. Osborn $3,500 vs. SEA
- TE T.J. Hockenson $5,200 vs. BAL
- DST Arizona Cardinals $3,000 at JAX
FanDuel
- QB Justin Fields $6,500 at CLE
- RB Derrick Henry $9,700 vs. IND
- RB Austin Ekeler $7,000 at KC
- RB Saquon Barkley $6,000 vs. NYG
- WR Cooper Kupp $7,900 vs. TB
- WR Keenan Allen $6,900 at KC
- WR K.J. Osborn $5,100 vs. SEA
- TE T.J. Hockenson $6,300 vs. BAL
- DST Arizona Cardinals $4,600 at JAX
Pictured above: Rams WR Cooper Kupp. Credit: Getty Images
