This offseason we’ll take a look at all 32 NFL teams’ most pressing needs heading into the 2018-19 season. Our next team missed the playoffs for the first time in eight years after losing arguably the best quarterback in football to injury for nine games: The Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have appeared in two NFC championship games since 2014 and went 4-3 in seven games with Aaron Rodgers last season. Still, their lack of a postseason berth led to significant changes in the locker room and front office. Long-time veterans Jordy Nelson and Morgan Burnett were both shown the door, and Edgar Bennett and Dom Capers at offensive and defensive coordinator have been replaced by Joe Philbin and Mike Pettine. No. 1 cornerback Damarious Randall was traded for DeShone Kizer and a slight upgrade in draft position.
The Packers signed tight end Jimmy Graham after last offseason’s failed Martellus Bennett experiment, and they reunited with 35-year-old cornerback Tramon Williams. New general manager Brian Gutekunst has the 15th-most cap space in the league to work with, although a massive contract extension for Rodgers is on the horizon. The Packers will look to improve both sides of the ball in April with their eight draft picks, including four in the top 100.
Need No. 1: Cornerback
Without Burnett and Randall in the fold, the Packers have Davon House, Josh Hawkins, Kevin King, and Quinten Rollins at cornerback. Pro Football Focus didn’t grade any of them higher than 98th among 121 qualified cornerbacks last season. Williams was PFF’s No. 9 overall cornerback in 2017, but it’s hard to expect too much from him without Patrick Peterson to draw the opponent’s No. 1 receiver on a weekly basis. It’s hard to overstate how bad the Packers were against the pass in 2017.
- 26th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- 32nd and 26th against Nos. 1-2 wide receivers in DVOA
- 30th in average DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers
King was the Packers’ second-round pick in 2017 and has the size (6’3″ and 200 pounds) and speed (4.43-second 40-yard dash) to start opposite Williams. Rollins is the early favorite to start at nickelback, which seems like a terrible idea given that he ranked dead last in yards allowed per cover snap among 142 corners to play at least 50 snaps in the slot last season. The Packers have selected five defensive backs in the first two rounds of the draft since 2014, and they have a good chance this year to add an impact player from a solid group of Day 1 candidates.
Telling Stat: The Packers allowed a league-high +1.6 Plus/Minus and 51 percent Consistency Rating to wide receivers last season. Only three defenses allowed a higher Plus/Minus to opposing receivers over the past four years, and only the 2014 Falcons allowed a higher percentage of receivers to hit their salary-based expectations.
Need No. 2: Pass Rush
The defensive line boasts two of PFF’s 16 top overall interior defenders, and the addition of Muhammad Wilkerson on a one-year deal certainly boosts the unit’s talent. Still, all three players, as well as outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, were graded as better against the run than the pass by PFF last season. The defense has been exposed when playing indoors against fast-paced offenses, allowing an additional 7.6 points per game in domes over the past two years.
Even with Wilkerson, additional depth is still needed on the line if Ahmad Brooks and Quinton Dial are ultimately not re-signed. It’s possible that 2016 third-round pick Kyle Fackrell and 2017 third-round pick Montravius Adams could take steps forward with more opportunity, but management should still look to improve the unit’s pass-rushing prowess with some early-round picks. The Packers are currently one of just 12 teams with fewer than $20M of their 2018 salary cap devoted to the defensive line.
Telling Stat: The Packers allowed a league-high four quarterbacks to score 30-plus DraftKings points last season: 26 teams allowed either one or zero such passing performances.
Need No. 3: Offensive Line
Rodgers’ tendency to extend plays with his legs before releasing the ball from an impossible angle at the last second makes for some of the best highlights you’ll ever witness, but it’s not an ideal method for preserving the body of a 34-year-old. The least the Packers can do for their franchise quarterback is improve the depth of a unit that ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate last season. They were undoubtedly unlucky on the offensive front considering that their starting tackles combined to miss 15 games, but the team didn’t have a PFF-ranked top-20 guard or center last season.
The Packers’ decision to activate Rodgers for their do-or-die Week 15 matchup against the Panthers nearly proved fatal thanks to their patch-work unit up front.
Overall, Rodgers was sacked 19 times in Weeks 1-6 despite being one of just two quarterbacks to avoid 10-plus tackles. Compared to the rest of the league, the Packers are currently dedicating the sixth-highest percentage of their salary cap to offensive tackles but the seventh-lowest percentage to guards. PFF’s 17th-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency needs depth at every position across the front, and it’d behoove the front office to consider upgrading the starters in the interior.
Telling Stat: Rodgers hasn’t ranked higher than 19th among all quarterbacks in completion percentage under pressure since 2012.
Honorable Mention
- Running Back: Each of Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams have demonstrated three-down ability at times. Still, Montgomery and Jones have struggled to stay on the field, and Williams last year averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. In each of the past two years the Packers have ranked among the league’s bottom-six offenses in rush attempts, and they appear poised to enter 2018 with a committee backfield. Without a clear leader, fantasy-friendly goal-line attempts could be hard to come by for any one of the backs, especially since Rodgers ranked among the league’s top-two quarterbacks in red-zone pass attempts in 2014-16.
- Wide Receiver: The Packers have yet to replace either Nelson or theoretical SPARQ-plug Jeff Janis. They boast a respectable receiving group with Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Geronimo Allison, but their backups are largely unproven. Adams, Cobb, and Nelson are the last Packers receivers selected in the first two rounds of the draft since 2006, so if the team opts to spend an early-round pick on a player he might end up relevant sooner rather than later. Adams was the only Packers receiver to rank among PFF’s 60 top wideouts in yards per route run last season.
Daily fantasy players should know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. The draft will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, from April 26-28.
Our mock draft has the Packers selecting cornerback Denzel Ward with the No. 14 pick. Check out Ward’s player profile and be sure to conduct offseason research yourself with our NFL tools!
Photo via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
