This offseason we’ll take a look at all 32 NFL teams’ most pressing needs heading into the 2018-19 season. Next up is the winner of the 2018 Super Bowl (in terms of best commercial): The New York Giants.
A new era has begun in New York, as the Giants have overhauled their front office and coaching staff after finishing with the team’s fewest wins since 1983. Head coach Ben McAdoo has been replaced by former Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, who has hired former Cardinals defensive coordinator James Bettcher to replace Steve Spagnola. Mike Shula will take over at offensive coordinator. Former Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman will be leading the rebuild, but he is expected to roll with Eli Manning under center for at least another season.
Gettleman could let a plethora of average running backs, linebackers, and interior offensive linemen walk in free agency. The Giants’ 23rd- and 24th-ranked offense and defense in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) have plenty of holes to fill, and they’ll need to nail their five draft picks considering their salary-cap predicament. Overall, the Giants have just the 25th-most cap space in the league, and Odell Beckham Jr. is a holdout candidate if he doesn’t receive a contract extension this spring. What positions should the Giants prioritize this offseason?
Need No. 1: Offensive Line
The offensive line performance last season was a bit deceiving. On the one hand, they ranked as the 10th-best unit in adjusted sack rate, and Manning was one of just six quarterbacks to be pressured on less than 30 percent of his passes. On the other hand, Manning had the quickest average throw in the league, and just 10.5 percent of his passes were thrown 20-plus yards downfield — the fifth-lowest mark among all quarterbacks. The group’s ability to run-block hasn’t been any better, as the offensive line hasn’t ranked among the top-10 units in adjusted line yards per rush since 2012. Overall, the Giants didn’t have a guard or tackle graded among Pro Football Focus’ top-30 players at their position last season. Center Brett Jones is a restricted free agent.
Shurmur’s quarterback-friendly scheme can assuredly help the league’s 31st-ranked scoring offense with an infusion of new talent, but will that be enough to propel Manning against the league’s better pass rushes (in terms of adjusted sack rate)?
- Manning vs. top-12 pass rushes since 2016 (14 games): 57.5% completion rate, 6.32 yards per attempt, 217.7 yards, 1.36 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions
- All other games (17 games): 65.8% completion rate, 6.47 yards per attempt, 261.6 yards, 1.53 touchdowns, 0.88 interceptions
Gettleman has stated he wants the Giants to resume playing “Big-boy football,” and he’s accordingly admitted the offensive line needs to be fixed. Initial additions include Nate Solder and Patrick Omameh, who ranked as PFF’s 32nd- and 36th- overall tackle and guard last season, respectively. It’d still behoove the team to utilize an early-round pick or two to upgrade the position group. Manning is 37 years old and remains as immobile as ever.
Telling Stat: Among quarterbacks to start at least 16 games over the past two seasons, only Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, and Brock Osweiler have averaged fewer adjusted yards per attempt than Manning.
Need No. 2: Running Back
Both Orleans Darkwa and Shane Vereen are free agents. That leaves Wayne Gallman and Paul Perkins on the depth chart. The former at least showed flashes of three-down ability last season, while the latter’s average of 2.2 yards per carry was the ninth-worst mark ever among backs with at least 40 carries in a season. Overall, Gallman (No. 13 in 2017) is the only Giants back to post an Elusive Rating (PFF) among the league’s top-35 backs over the past two seasons.
There’s a long list of competent free-agent backs, and Shurmur’s first move was to nab Jonathan Stewart. While Stewart is quietly one of the league’s freakier athletes at running back, the soon to be 31-year old has averaged 3.8 or fewer yards per carry during each of the past two seasons. Shurmur has featured the likes of Steven Jackson, Trent Richardson, and LeSean McCoy over the years, while the Vikings’ recent backfield committees were mostly the result of injuries to Adrian Peterson and Dalvin Cook. Regardless of his backfield situation, Shurmur has continuously involved his running backs in the passing game. He found ways to deploy Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield into open space at will:
Wayne Gallman's 19 catches were tied 4th among all RBs in Weeks 14-17.
Might actually get those balls in open space as Pat Shurmur's receiving back: pic.twitter.com/Qn49sLprhY
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 8, 2018
Still, Gallman was just a fourth-round pick, and the team will almost assuredly spend a draft pick on the position regardless of how Shurmur and Gettleman feel about Stewart, Gallman and Perkins. Backs selected no earlier than the middle rounds have remained effective even though first-round running backs are starting to come into style again: Both of last season’s most productive rookie backs in Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt were selected in the third round. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Giants open up the season without a clearly-defined backfield, but whoever rises to the top has a chance to surge as a pass catcher.
Telling Stat: The Giants have 12 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. Every other team has at least 16.
Need No. 3: Linebacker
The Giants have almost purposely neglected their linebacker position, as they’ve spent the fourth- and 11th-highest allotment of the cap on their defensive line and secondary. Meanwhile, they’re one of just three teams to spend less than $5M on their linebackers. This is partially because the Giants have run a 4-3 defense instead of a 3-4, but the position could still certainly use an upgrade. Overall, they didn’t have a linebacker graded higher than 60th by PFF last season, and the position group should be held at least partially accountable for the defense allowing a league-high 12 touchdowns to tight ends last season.
One offseason might not be enough to revamp the position, but the early addition of Alec Ogletree should help and will increase the overall team speed on defense. The defense’s identity will continue to roll through the defensive line and secondary. Spagnola managed to turn largely the same unit into the league’s second-best defense in overall DVOA in 2016, so it’s not inconceivable for the team to continue to deprioritize its linebackers. The unit will at the very least need better coaching and execution, as they ranked outside of the top-20 defenses in both second-level and open-field yards per rush last season (Football Outsiders).
Telling Stat: The Giants allowed four and two backs, respectively, to rack up 15-plus and 20-plus DraftKings points in 2016. They allowed eight- and five-such performances last season.
Honorable Mention
- Quarterback: Manning’s aforementioned incompetence over the past two seasons is at least partially due to poor line play and a revolving door at receiver, but the Giants will still look to find his eventual successor sooner rather than later. Barring the new staff falling in love with 2017 third-pound pick Davis Webb, it seems likely they’ll use the draft’s No. 2 overall pick on their quarterback of the future.
- Cornerback: Some considered Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Eli Apple the best group of defensive backs outside of Denver entering last season. What a difference a season makes. PFF ranked each corner outside of the top-50 defensive backs by season’s end, with each defensive back being benched or suspended at some point. The potential departure of Ross Cockrell, along with the release of Rodgers-Cromartie, will require the Giants to address the position’s depth, and major changes will be warranted barring an improvement from the incumbent starters.
Daily fantasy players should know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. The draft will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, from April 26-28.
Our mock draft has the Giants selecting quarterback Sam Darnold with the second overall pick in the draft. Check out Darnold’s player profile as well as the FantasyLabs quarterback rankings.
Be sure to conduct offseason research yourself with our NFL tools!
