This offseason we’ll take a look at all 32 NFL teams’ most pressing needs heading into the 2018-19 season. Our next team is undefeated since handing the franchise keys to Tom Brady’s ex-understudy: The San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are officially Jimmy Garopollo‘s team for the foreseeable future. With the quarterback position solved, the front office can turn its attention to surrounding the NFL’s highest-paid player with enough talent to help the team hit a .500 record for the first time since 2014. The team hopes the second year with Kyle Shanahan will better resemble the team’s 5-0 finish as opposed to its 1-10 start, but there are currently more questions than answers on a roster poised for plenty of turnover.
Carlos Hyde appears to be on the way out, and the offense will also lose numerous pieces in the interior of the line. There could also be holes in the secondary depending on the status of free agents Eric Reid and Dontae Johnson. The defense could take an additional hit depending on the status of Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 overall linebacker Rueben Foster, who could be facing discipline following a February arrest on suspicion of domestic violence. The team has four of the top 74 picks and the fifth-most cap space.
Need No. 1: Wide Receiver
Jimmy GQ proved plenty capable of getting the most out of the 49ers pass catchers last season, but there’s no reason why the team can’t upgrade the position group given the plethora of cap space. As it stands, Marquise Goodwin proved to be more than just a speedster with Jimmy GQ under center, turning into the WR11 in DraftKings scoring over the final month of the season. Trent Taylor flashed Danny Amendola-esque ability from the slot while Aldrick Robinson and Pierre Garcon are perpetually underrated.
While the 49ers boast a group of capable pass catchers when healthy, they combined for just six touchdowns last season, and Goodwin, Taylor, and Robinson all stand 5’10” or shorter. The unit ranked as the league’s seventh worst in average DraftKings points per game, and only Goodwin and Garcon ranked among the league’s 70 top receivers in yards per route run. Living in the Bay area, playing with one of the league’s brightest stars under center, and working under one of the best offensive minds at head coach should be an enticing proposition for any free agent or potential draftee. Be sure to check out our 2018 NFL draft wide receiver rankings.
Telling Stat: There were 74 instances of a player gaining over 100 receiving yards and scoring a touchdown last season. The 49ers were responsible for zero of those games.
Need No. 2: Cornerback
The 49ers’ cornerback situation is probably best summarized by that burning dumpster gif. None of their corners were graded among the league’s top 40 at the position by PFF, and they had one of just seven defenses to allow at least 2,500 yards and 15 touchdowns to wide receivers. All 11 receivers with eight-plus targets against the 49ers came away with at least five catches or a touchdown. The defense unsurprisingly ranked near the bottom of most statistical categories against the pass:
- 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- 30th, 16th, and 32nd in pass DVOA vs. No. 1, No. 2, and other WRs
- 23rd in QB Rating allowed
- 22nd in yards allowed per attempt
- Third- and seventh-most DraftKings PPG allowed to QBs and WRs
The whole unit is short on experience, and none of the current corners on the roster managed to hold receivers to less than 1.0 yard per cover snap last season — a feat 39 players managed to accomplish in 2017. The 49ers signed Richard Sherman in hopes he’ll return to his previous All-Pro form, although he’s coming off surgery on both his left and right Achilles. John Lynch selected two defensive backs in last year’s draft, with both standing over 6’0″ and coming from the Power Five.
Telling Stat: 18 of 32 quarterbacks (56.3 percent) have scored at least 18 DraftKings points against the 49ers since 2016.
Need No. 3: Interior Offensive Line
Starting center and guard Daniel Kilgore and Brandon Fusco are free agents, and they join incumbent starter Laken Tomlinson outside of PFF’s 20 highest-graded players at their positions. The 49ers ranked 11th in adjusted line yards per rush last year but just 18th on rushes behind the center or guards. Shanahan deserves plenty of credit for this improvement given that the team ranked dead last in those categories under Chip Kelly in 2016, and it remains to be seen if he’ll choose to upgrade the personnel or rely on continuity. It’s also not ideal that last year the line was 18th in adjusted sack rate.
The offense struggled to get the job done against tough defensive lines last season:
- Top-12 defensive lines in adjusted line yards (6 games): 1-5, 12.3 points, 299.2 yards, no games with 110-plus rush yards
- All other games (10 games): 5-5, 25.7 points, 379.2 yards, six games with 110-plus rush yards
Lynch stressed the need to improve the offensive line in February, and the expected return of former first-round guard Joshua Garnett will assuredly help the unit’s depth. We saw what the team looked like without competent quarterback play, so finding players to protect Jimmy GQ should be this offseason’s first priority. The 49ers signed Weston Richburg, who is a capable starter at both guard and center.
Telling Stat: The 49ers were one of 10 teams to rank 20th or lower in both percentage of runs to achieve a first down on third- and fourth-and-short and percentage of runs for no gain or a loss.
Honorable Mention
- Running Back: Hyde’s role as the unit’s alpha group will be filled by ex-Vikings back Jerick McKinnon. Despite splitting reps with Latavius Murray in the wake of Dalvin Cook‘s season-ending injury, McKinnon ranked among the league’s top-eight backs in both receptions (43) and receiving yards (381) from Week 5 on in 2017. Matt Breida and Joe Williams will battle it out for the No. 2 spot. Breida demonstrated three-down capabilities but faces physical limitations at 5’10” and 190 pounds, and he posted PFF’s sixth-worst Elusive Rating out of 53 qualified backs. Williams averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the preseason and received plenty of post-draft hype, but he is yet to take an NFL carry after an ankle injury sidelined him for the entirety of last season. While his dad was known for pumping out 1,000-yard backs, Shanahan has done so in only five of his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach.
- Linebacker: Foster is a difference-making linebacker and would be sorely missed. Overall, the 49ers allowed an average of 20.5 points and 100.9 rush yards in their final eight games of the season with Foster compared to 27.4 points and 131.8 rush yards in the first half of the season with just two games from Foster. Nobody else on the roster was graded among PFF’s 55 top linebackers, so the unit will need to add depth even if Foster is able to avoid suspension for his recent legal issues.
Daily fantasy players should know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. The draft will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, from April 26-28.
Our mock draft has the 49ers selecting guard Quenton Nelson with the No. 9 pick. Be sure to conduct offseason research yourself with our NFL tools!
Photo via Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
