From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
New York Giants NFL Preview
2015 was shaping up to be the year of Eli Manning. Through the first nine games of the season, Manning and his New York Giants were sitting pretty at the top of the NFC East with a 5-4 record. The season then took a turn for the worst for Eli and the Giants: 5-4 turned into 6-10 — and now Eli can no longer end any annoying conversation with Peyton by holding up two fingers.
It’s easy to look at a late-season collapse and wonder how a few different bounces could have changed the outcome, but in the Giants’ case there is some substance to the idea that they were very unlucky in 2015. Eight of the Giants’ 10 losses in 2015 were decided by no more than six points, and the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the league made the Giants a dangerous underachiever.
With back-to-back 6-10 finishes, the Giants made major offseason moves on defense and the coaching staff, but will these changes make a difference? Vegas seems to think that the Giants will do better, as their 2016 win total is currently at 8.5. It’s easy to see why Vegas expects the Giants to be (just) better than a .500 team.
Quarterback
Eli Manning
The late-career success of Manning has understandably been linked to his relationship with new head coach Ben McAdoo (the offensive coordinator for the two previous seasons). Before McAdoo arrived in 2014, Manning had thrown for 30 or more touchdowns just once in his previous 10 seasons, but with McAdoo on the staff Manning has accomplished this feat in back-to-back campaigns. The biggest reason for this newfound success is the Giants’ apparent love of throwing the football in the red zone.
After finishing 20th in the NFL with just 55 pass attempts in the red zone during the 2013 season, Manning has been the third-most active red-zone quarterback in the NFL. The Giants attempted 98 and 90 red-zone pass attempts in 2014 and 2015. Additionally, the Giants’ running game failed to make much of an impact in the red zone, so more of the scoring ‘burden’ fell to Eli and the passing game: 88 percent of the Giants’ red-zone touchdowns came through the air in 2015, which was tied for first in the NFL.
Even with this unreal red-zone usage, Manning had a tale of two tapes as far as his 2015 production went. When facing his division, Manning struggled. Big time:
According to our Trends tool, Manning had a Plus/Minus of -3.17 when facing NFC East opponents during the 2015 season. If extrapolated over an entire season, this average of 14.63 points per game on DraftKings would rank 32nd in the NFL. However, if you take the Eagle, Star, or Native American off the helmet of the opponent, then all of a sudden Manning looked like one of the game’s elites:
This includes Manning’s masterful 350-yard six-touchdown performance against the New Orleans Saints, but even if one were to remove this outlier then Eli would still produce a Plus/Minus of +4.33 and an average point total of 21.64, which stretched over an entire season would firmly entrench Manning as a top-ten fantasy quarterback on a points/game basis.
While Manning’s 2015 campaign was a bit of a roller coaster, the Giants’ offensive playing style indicates that Manning should continue to put up his fair share of stats in 2016, especially against a number of teams that did poorly against quarterbacks last year (as determined by average fantasy points allowed to the position).
Half of Manning’s 2016 opponents finished 2015 in the bottom quartile of all defenses in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Manning hasn’t consistently struggled against his division throughout his career, and with this friendly 2016 schedule there is no reason to believe that Manning can’t lead the Giants offense to another top-ten ranking. In the worst-case scenario that Manning misses his first NFL action since 2004, the Giants hopes will rest on the shoulders of third-year fourth-round quarterback Ryan Nassib, who has attempted just 10 passes in his career.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr.
No receiver has been a better fantasy producer than OBJ in the first two years of his career. Seriously. In an offseason dominated by everyone’s realization that we now get to witness Beckham vs. Josh Norman twice a year, the reality that Beckham became borderline unstoppable for the last half of the season may have been forgotten:
Beckham has always been consistently great, but his especially dominant end to 2015 was somewhat marred by his suspension following his run-in with Norman.
Beckham will get his fair share of targets no matter who else is on the field, thanks to the Giants’ regular utilization of Beckham all over the formation, but it remains to be seen in 2016 if the increased talent in the Giants wide receiver room will benefit Beckham. Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard both have question marks (for different reasons), but Beckham may have some real weapons opposite him in the offense for the first time in his career, as the only other receiver with whom Beckham has consistently shared targets, the middling Rueben Randle, has moved on to Philadelphia.
No matter where Beckham lines up in the formation, don’t expect his 2015 top-15 mark in red-zone targets to diminish substantially, as the Giants have consistently found ways to get Beckham the ball no matter who is covering him.
Victor Cruz
The salsa-dancing, fantasy-machine is finally back. After a gruesome knee injury in 2014 led to a missed 2015 season, Cruz is apparently “ready to go” for 2016. The tricky part in projecting Cruz’s fantasy impact is knowing how big of a part of the offense he will be now that Beckham is the clear No. 1 option. Cruz and Beckham have played only two career games together, and neither managed to record over 50 yards in either of the affairs.
Of course, Cruz’s target share may be the least of his problems, as history has shown that players recovering from a Patellar tendon repair have greatly struggled. Even if Cruz receives a decent share of targets, his ability to be efficient with them is very uncertain.
Sterling Shepard
The rookie out of Oklahoma is expected to contribute immediately in the Big Apple. While the Giants have their fingers crossed for a full Cruz recovery, there is a good chance that Shepard could be starting as early as Week 1. While his size (5’10” and 194 lbs.) isn’t elite, Shepard was the No. 1 wide receiver on one of college football’s most explosive offenses during his senior season in 2015.
Expected to be the Giants’ version of Randall Cobb, the second-round selection is probably more NFL-ready than Cobb was, as Shepard is a polished route runner and Cobb was a versatile all-around playmaker who spent most of his first college season as an option quarterback. Having averaged nearly 100 yards and a touchdown per game as a senior, Shepard has a knack for getting separation, and his career 14.9 yards/catch average (as well as his 4.48-second 40-yard time) show that Shepard has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. With multiple catches of 50-plus yards in each of his last three collegiate seasons, Shepard has the ability to make a sizable impact right away for the Giants.
Dwayne Harris
Harris’ first year in New York turned out to be by far the most productive offensive season of his career. Still, with just over 400 total yards on offense and four touchdowns, Harris wasn’t a consistent fantasy contributor. Even if an injury to another receiver leads to more playing time, Harris is still unlikely to see a drastic increase in opportunities. In Harris’ one game last season without Beckham, he was targeted only twice.
Geremy Davis
At 6’2” and 217 lbs., Davis is by far the Giants’ largest wide receiver. With Shepard likely playing in the slot, Davis could get some playing time on the outside if Cruz isn’t ready to play and the coaching staff wants to use a receiver bigger than Harris. Still, that promotion would be unlikely to result in a lot of production.
Tight End
Will Tye
The Giants’ tight end situation is a bit of a mystery at the moment, and it’s mainly because of the second-year tight end from Stony Brook. After losing starting tight end Larry Donnell for the season, the Giants made Tye the starter and he managed to outperform Donnell as the team’s primary receiving option at the position:
The above chart shows the average totals for Tye in Weeks 9-16 and Donnell in Weeks 1-8. At 6’2” and 262 lbs., Tye is the smaller of the two tight ends, but he was still a red-zone beast in 2015, turning three of his six targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns. Both Tye and Donnell have shown that they can be fantasy contributors in the Giants’ offense, but Tye’s brief showing last season shows that he may be best positioned to run away with the job. It doesn’t hurt that he’s younger and much more athletic.
Larry Donnell
September 25, 2014, seems like so long ago. On that beautiful day Donnell pulled in three touchdowns, but in the 20 games since then he has scored just four times. At 6’5” and 269 lbs., Donnell is a massive red-zone target on an offense with small wide receivers. The problem has never been his skill, just his opportunity. With a two-season red-zone catch rate over 50 percent, Donnell has the ability to serve as Manning’s go-to red-zone receiver. First, he just needs to beat out Tye . . . and then steal targets from OBJ.
Running Back
Rashad Jennings
Despite starting every game for the Giants in 2015, Jennings averaged just over 12 carries per game, ahead of only Lamar Miller for running backs to start all 16 games. While Miller’s low workload was offset by a nice touchdown total and a large presence in the Dolphin’s passing attack, Jennings has totaled just seven rushing touchdowns in his 27 career games as a New York Giant.
Jennings is the de facto starter in New York, but that may not be enough to make him a reliable fantasy option. Shane Vereen is a consistent receiver out of the backfield, as he doubled Jennings’ number of targets in 2015. Jennings has shown flashes when given the opportunity to be ‘the guy,’ averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game in the four games from 2014 to 2015 in which he received at least 20 carries. However, Jennings received just four carries inside the five-yard line in 2015, which ranked 40th among all running backs.
Don’t expect him to be any more consistent or productive in 2016.
Shane Vereen
Vereen has increased his receiving production every year in the league. An average of 3.7 receptions per game gives Vereen a nice floor as a running back, but the Giants never gave Vereen more than six carries in a single game in 2015. And 2016 will likely be more of the same.
If, however, Jennings were to miss time then Vereen would likely be the running back most immediately to benefit from his absence, receiving additional opportunities in the air and on the ground, as he managed to outrush Andre Williams last year even though he had 27 fewer carries.
Andre Williams
The 5’11” and 230 lb. Williams may have rushed for over 2,000 yards as a senior at Boston College, but he ended 2015 with a 2.9 yard/carry average. From 2014 to 2015, Williams’ brutal production led to 10 fewer carries inside the five-yard line, making his seven-touchdown rookie year seem like a long time ago.
By the time the 2016 season is over, Williams might not even be on the team’s roster.
Paul Perkins
A three-down back out of UCLA, Perkins tallied over 1,500 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns in each of his last two collegiate seasons. Particularly impressive was his work as a receiver, as he caught 80 passes in his three-year college career. At 5’10” and 208 lbs., Perkins lacks elite straight-line speed but is big and athletic enough to be a lead back in the Devonta Freeman mold. While Perkins will need to show that he can produce at the next level, he has all the tools to be a complete NFL running back and could ultimately steal production from all of the team’s other backs as a runner and receiver if he is able to find the field.
He definitely has hidden workhorse potential in 2016, especially in the second half of the season — after he has had time to adjust to the NFL and the running backs ahead of him have had time to wear down and suffer injuries.
Two-Minute Warning
The NFL’s 30th-ranked scoring defense was the Giants’ kryptonite in 2015. There’s a reason their games were so high-scoring last year. The offseason additions of Janoris Jenkins, Olivier Vernon, and Damon Harrison should help bolster the league’s third-worst defense in terms of adjusted sack rate. Additionally, longtime head coach Tom Coughlin was replaced by his offensive coordinator, and a wide receiver group that was looking for at least one sidekick for Beckham may have found two in Cruz (finally healthy) and Shepard (the Giants’ second-round draft pick).
Vegas’ optimistic 8.5 win total, combined with the improvement on defense, may reflect the fact that there might be fewer shootouts for the 2016 Giants. With McAdoo still in charge of the offense, the team’s pass-happy ways should continue. While a potential abundance of options at wide receiver and tight end has positioned the Giants offense to be more than a two-horse show in 2016, Manning and OBJ are still the stars here. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon.
