March Madness is here and our friends at ScoresAndOdds have already delivered a bevy of NCAA Tournament picks and predictions for round 1.
You don’t have to wait until Thursday for the madness to begin. The NCAA Tournament officially tips off on Tuesday, with two play-in games, followed by another pair on Wednesday.
Here’s a quick look at the odds for all four matchups during the play-in round:
- No. 16 Wagner vs. No. 16 Howard -3.5, O/U 128.5
- No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 10 Virginia +1.5, O/U 119.5
- No. 16 Grambling vs. No. 16 Montana State -3.5, O/U 134.5
- No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 10 Boise State +2.5, O/U 137.5
NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions
There’s one team in particular that three experts are on. Find out below why there’s value on the Colorado Buffs, plus two more picks for the NCAA Tournament play-in games.
Montana State set to cruise over Grambling
Congrats to Grambling State on being the best team in the worst conference, but this line of 3.5/4 is too short. Grambling’s offensive game plan is basically to dribble the ball for 20 seconds and then shoot a contested 2-point jumper. They will turn the ball over with any amount of pressure, and Montana State actually does a decent job on defense, forcing a turnover at an 18.6% rate (good for 74th in the country). The Bobcats have a backcourt of experienced guards who can make shots. If they can play without fouling Grambling late in the shot clock, Montana State will cruise. – Jourdan Case
CSU vs. UVA prop: Stevens under 14.5 points
Stevens is one of the better point guards in the country, but he draws a brutal spot in the First Four. Virginia is the 7th-best defense in the country and plays at the single slowest tempo. They’ve actually really struggled with strong post scorers this season, but their perimeter defense is outstanding. Even worse for Stevens is that he’ll draw coverage from arguably the best on-ball guard defense in the country in Reece Beekman. Stevens is supposedly nursing a calf strain (per the broadcast in their loss to New Mexico on Friday), and he went to the locker room early last game and was a total shell of himself. He is super unselfish and probably looks to distribute even more with his matchup, as he did on Friday. – Erik Beimfohr
Editor’s note: Not in state with legal sports betting? Play CBB DFS during the NCAA Tournament by making player predictions on Sleeper and Dabble.
Experts backing Colorado moneyline & spread on Wednesday
I love Colorado in this game and actually think they have a chance to win more than just this contest in their NCAA Tournament journey. This is a team that made it all the way to the conference title game before losing to Oregon, and they had won eight in a row prior to that loss. I think the 2023-2024 Pac-12 was better than it got credit for, and I similarly think that the Mountain West wasn’t as good as they got credit for. Both teams have ten losses, but Colorado is the better squad and is playing great basketball right now. Don’t be surprised if this closes around -150 or -160, so I am locking in -134 early. – Justin Van Zuiden
I like a few of the advantages that Colorado has here, and I think it will all add up for a win. Boise is 10-0 when their offensive rebound rate is over 40% in any game. But Colorado has only allowed two teams to hit a 40% offensive rebound rate against them this season. The Buffs just have more size.
Colorado has elite offensive efficiency. They score by the 2-pointer frequently, and that’s where Boise has allowed damage, ranking 258th in defensive 2PT%. The Buffs also shoot “close” 2-pointers at the 4th-highest frequency in the country, but Boise ranks 328th in close 2-point defensive FG% (via BartTorvik).
The Buffaloes have the highest-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency rating (25th overall via KenPom) that Boise has played this season. Boise has played against 18 teams in the top 100 of that category and is an underwhelming 8-10 against them but is a perfect 12-0 against every team outside of the top 100 in that department.
Boise also relies on drawing fouls as a big source of scoring, but the Buffaloes are top 75 in the country in defensive free throw attempts per field goal attempt (meaning Colorado does not send its opponent to the foul line very much).
In fact, Boise is 4-8 overall against teams that rank within the top 200 of defensive free throw rate, but the Broncos are 15-2 against teams that rank worse than that. Boise has faired extremely well vs. teams that send them to the line, but the Buffs shouldn’t be one of them. Overall, I just think the Buffs will be a bit too much. – Justin Carlucci
Similar to the committee dinging the Mountain West, I’m looking to generally fade the conference in the tournament. Even better, I think Colorado is a bit underrated here, as they have dealt with a boatload of injuries this year. They are finally healthy, and KJ Simpson is one of the most underrated guards in the country. They have matchups for Degenhart and Stanley on the interior. It’s the perfect storm with one overrated and one underrated team. – Erik Beimfohr
