Wednesday features Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks starting at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
Series Overview
Both of these teams are coming off grueling seven-game series in the previous round. The Bucks were able to outlast the Brooklyn Nets in an instant classic. Much of the attention in that series was focused on the Nets, who got an all-time performance from Kevin Durant and had to deal with injuries to James Harden and Kyrie Irving. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo delivered some huge performances as well, and Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday were able to hit some big shots down the stretch in Game 7.
The Hawks pulled off a sizable upset of the 76ers. Trae Young has blossomed into a star this postseason, and he has proven that he’s not afraid of the biggest stages. While certain players shrink in those moments — **cough Ben Simmons cough** — Young has risen to the occasion.
Unfortunately, the Hawks enter this series at less than full strength. Bogdan Bogdanovic was hobbled towards the end of that series vs. the 76ers, and he’s listed as questionable for Game 1. De’Andre Hunter has already been shut down for the rest of the season, so Bogdanovic being out or limited would be a big blow. Cam Reddish has been upgraded to questionable after being out of the lineup since February, but it seems likely that he’ll be heavily restricted if he is able to play. Make sure to monitor their status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Overall, the Bucks are listed as -480 favorites to win the series, and they’re eight-point favorites in Game 1.
Studs
You could make the argument that Antetokounmpo is the only true fantasy stud in this series. I’ll throw some other players in this section because Mr. Miyagi once told me that balance is important, but Antetokounmpo clearly possesses the highest ceiling on today’s slate. He has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s seen a nice spike in playing time during the postseason.
He’s played at least 41.1 minutes in four of his past five games, including more than 50 minutes in their Game 7 overtime victory. He might not see that much playing time to start the series vs. the Hawks, but he’s still projected for a sizable 39.2 minutes in our NBA Models.
Giannis should have the advantage over whoever is guarding him in this series. Hunter would’ve been the most logical choice — he did an outstanding job on Julius Randle in the first round — but he’s unavailable. John Collins will likely get the first crack at him, but Giannis shot 7-of-8 from the field with Collins as his primary defender during the regular season.
Young has scored at least 56.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he did that in a brutal matchup vs. the 76ers.
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks.
Philly ranked first in the league in defensive efficiency, and they have a pair of elite perimeter defenders in Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. He’ll have his hands full once again vs. Jrue Holiday, but Young has proved that he’s essentially matchup proof.
Middleton and Holiday round out this tier. They couldn’t buy a bucket for most of Game 7, shooting a combined 14-49 from the field, but both players have provided solid fantasy value during the postseason. Middleton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings, while Holiday has done it in nine of 11 playoff games.
Of the two, Holiday is my preferred target. Not only is he a bit cheaper across the industry – particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95% – but he also has the better individual matchup. Young is one of the worst defensive point guards in the league, and Holiday shot 75% with Young as his primary defender in their lone regular-season matchup.
Midrange
Clint Capela is coming off a disastrous series vs. the 76ers. He cracked 33.25 DraftKings points in just one of the seven games, and he ultimately posted a negative Plus/Minus in five contests. His price has come down a bit, but this stands out as another subpar matchup.
Playing against Brook Lopez is obviously better than playing against Joel Embiid, but Lopez is going to drag Capela out to the perimeter on offense. That means Capela will spend more time than usual outside of the paint, which should limit his defensive rebounding chances. Most of Capela’s value comes from rebounding and dunks, so I don’t think this is a particularly appealing buy-low spot.
I’d rather save a little with Collins if I’m going to target the Hawks’ frontcourt. If he does draw the assignment vs. Giannis, he’s going to spend virtually all of his time in the paint. That should be good for his rebounding prospects. He’s also been a nice value recently, scoring at least 36.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games.
When we last saw Kevin Huerter, he was busy abusing Seth Curry in Games 6 and 7. He poured in at least 42.75 DraftKings points in both contests, and he displayed a nice variety of shot-making that I frankly didn’t know he possessed. Unfortunately, there will be no whipping boy for Huerter to beat up on in this series, which makes him a lot less appealing. His salary has also increased across the industry, so he’s an easy fade on today’s slate.
Lopez stands out as one of the best pure values in this price range on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s been a solid contributor recently, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his playing time is up during the postseason.
Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Brook Lopez #11 of the Milwaukee Bucks.
He posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of seven games vs. the Nets — including a 42.0 DraftKings points performance in Game 7 — and I like his chances to pay off his salary again on Wednesday.
Bogdanovic is a massive X-factor on today’s slate. I would expect him to suit up in Game 1, but there’s no guarantee he’s anywhere near full strength. He played 28.6 minutes or fewer in each of the final three games vs. the 76ers, and he unsurprisingly failed to return value in each contest. He has high bust potential on today’s slate, but he also has the potential to be an interesting contrarian target. Bogdanovic should garner minimal ownership, and he was the Hawks’ second-best offensive threat before getting injured.
Danilo Gallinari rounds out this price range, and he has stepped up recently given the injury to Bogdanovic. He doesn’t possess a huge ceiling, but he has scored at least 28.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Values & Punts
- P.J. Tucker ($3,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Tucker was a huge part of the Bucks’ rotation during their series vs. the Nets, but they may not need as much from him vs. the Hawks. He was tasked with stopping Durant in the previous round, but the Hawks don’t really have a wing player for Tucker to focus on. He needs to play heavy minutes to potentially return value – he averaged a paltry 0.49 DraftKings points per minute this season – but he could play less than expected on Wednesday.
- Bryn Forbes ($3,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Forbes lost playing time as the series vs. the Nets progressed, but he could see a few additional minutes vs. the Hawks. He’s a 3-point sniper, shooting 45.2% from deep this season, and he only needs to make a couple to pay off his current salary.
- Lou Williams ($2,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Don’t expect a ton of minutes for Williams, but he is usually productive when on the floor. He chipped in 17.5 DraftKings points in just 11.3 minutes in Game 7, and he’s scored at least 14.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.
- Bobby Portis ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Portis intrigues me on today’s slate. He was in contention for the Sixth Man of the Year award this season, but he basically fell out of the rotation vs. the Nets. He has much more playability vs. the Hawks, who typically play two traditional big men, so Mike Budenholzer can use him in this series if he wants to.
- Pat Connaughton ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Connaughton was basically the only reserve player that the Bucks trusted in the latter stages of their series vs. the Nets. He’s projected for more than 24 minutes in our NBA Models, so he stands out as underpriced.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): I’m probably not looking to go any cheaper than Connaughton on DraftKings, but Okongwu is your best bet if you need to go dumpster diving. He should see around 10 minutes in this matchup, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Photo Credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks
