Friday features Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Series Overview
The Hawks were able to pull off the road victory in Game 1 despite checking in as sizable underdogs. They got an absolutely massive performance from Trae Young, who abused the Bucks in the pick-and-roll. He finished with a career-high 48 points, which was enough to propel the Hawks to victory.
That said, the Bucks remain the favorites to win the series. They’re currently listed at around -210 to make it to the NBA Finals, and they’re eight-point favorites once again in Game 2.
There’s not a whole lot to monitor tonight from an injury perspective. Bogdan Bogdanovic is once again listed as questionable, but there doesn’t appear to be much of a chance that he actually sits. Cam Reddish could also possibly see the floor for the first time since February, but he would likely be extremely limited if he does play.
Overall, the only real question is what adjustments the Bucks will make to try and slow down Young in Game 2. If they can solve that problem – which is easier said than done – they should have no problems cruising to a victory.
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo had a classic Giannis performance in Game 1. He racked up 34 points, 12 rebounds, nine assists, two steals and two blocks, resulting in 70.5 DraftKings points. That might be on the high side of what you can expect tonight, but there’s no reason to plan on too much regression. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy this season, averaging 1.67 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s projected for more than 40 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a lethal combination, and he remains essentially a must-play.
Trae Young actually outscored Giannis in Game 1 thanks to his massive performance, but he’s a much stronger regression candidate. The Bucks already made some tweaks to their defensive scheme in the second half of that contest, and they did a much better job over the final 48 minutes. Young was 11-16 from the field in the first half, but he shot just 6-18 in the second. They basically benched Brook Lopez over that time frame, which didn’t give him someone he could target in the pick-and-roll.
Lopez should retain his starting spot in Game 2, but I’m expecting a far lesser role than he had in the last series. He could play less than 20 minutes, and if that happens, it’s going to be much tougher for Young to generate fantasy points. He’s obviously still a strong target in the single-game format – he owns the second-highest median and ceiling projections – but he’s a far weaker play than Giannis at Captain. The fact that he’s only $600 cheaper makes it an easy decision.
Khris Middleton has been extremely hit or miss recently. He went off for 70.0 DraftKings points in Game 6 vs. the Nets, but he’s shot 36.4% or worse from the field in three of his past four games. That includes a horrific performance in Game 1 vs. the Hawks, shooting just 26.1% from the field and 0-9 from 3-point range. Middleton shot 47.6% from the field and 41.4% from 3-point range during the regular season, so he seems like a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s an elite buy-low target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%, and he will likely command the lowest ownership in this tier.
Jrue Holiday seems poised for a big series. He struggled mightily shooting the ball vs. the Nets, but he racked 33 points in Game 1 vs. the Hawks. They dared him to beat them from the perimeter, and he responded by shooting 5-12 from 3-point range. The Hawks tried a combination of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter on him primarily in Game 1, and neither of those guys figures to serve as much of a challenge. He remains underpriced at $9,400 on DraftKings.
Midrange
John Collins and Clint Capela are next up on the pricing spectrum, and they could be the biggest beneficiaries if Lopez plays less than expected. The smaller lineup for the Bucks did a much better job of slowing down Young, but it left them exposed on the glass. Capela and Collins combined for 34 rebounds – including nine offensive rebounds – and the Hawks outrebounded the Bucks by a margin of 51 to 45.
Of the two, Capela is my preferred target. Collins has been priced up recently following some big performances, and he’s actually the fourth-most expensive player in this matchup on FanDuel. I’m not sure if he has the upside to justify that price tag. Meanwhile, Capela is as affordable as ever. Our Models give him the edge in median and ceiling projection, so it seems wise to take the discount with him on Friday.
I’m avoiding this next tier like the plague. It consists of Huerter, Bogdanovic, and Lopez, and all three players have factors working against them. Bogdanovic is clearly injured, and he hasn’t looked like the same player he was at the start of the postseason. Huerter has picked up some of the slack from his injury, but he’s been priced up following some big games vs. the 76ers. He did almost all his damage in that series by picking on Seth Curry, and he will not have that luxury vs. the Bucks. He finished with just 17.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, and I wouldn’t expect a ton of progression in Game 2.
Lopez’s fantasy value will be determined by his minutes, and I don’t think he sees enough playing time to be viable. He’s currently projected for 22.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and that honestly might be aggressive. He played less than eight minutes in the second half of Game 2, so he could very easily play less than that.
Next up is Danilo Gallinari, and he’s reasonable at his current price tag. He played just under 25.5 minutes in Game 1, and Gallinari has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season. His numbers were down in Game 1, but he contributed virtually nothing in the peripheral categories. He’s averaged 4.9 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game vs. the 76ers, so he should be a bit better in those categories in Game 2.
Pat Connaughton rounds out this price range, and he should be the primary beneficiary if Lopez plays fewer minutes in this series. He saw more than 28.7 minutes in Game 1, and he’s projected for an even larger workload in our NBA Models for Game 2. Connaughton isn’t great on a per-minute basis, but it’s hard to ignore someone so cheap who has the potential to play 30+ minutes.
Values & Punts
- P.J. Tucker ($3,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Tucker has been a godsend for this Bucks’ squad. He did yeoman’s work against Kevin Durant in their last series, and he’s looking at another large workload vs. the Hawks. Unfortunately, Tucker is arguably the worst producer in fantasy on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged just 0.49 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he still has a chance to return value through sheer volume.
- Bobby Portis ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): The Bucks dusted off Portis in Game 1 of this series, but he played just 3.5 minutes in the second half. He ultimately finished with 22.5 DraftKings points in that contest, making him an excellent value, but I’m not as confident in his playing time in Game 2.
- Bryn Forbes ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Forbes actually gave the Bucks some solid minutes in Game 1, and they outscored the Hawks by +8 points with him on the court. That said, Forbes has still been a major negative for the Bucks for most of the playoffs. His minutes are far from safe, but he has the potential to return value with a few 3-pointers.
- Lou Williams ($2,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Lemon-Pepper Lou is a prime boom-or-bust option at this price tag. He’s scored at least 17.5 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, and he’s scored 4.25 DraftKings points or fewer in the others. Still, we really only care about upside in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), and Williams has it at this salary.
- Solomon Hill ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hill is the safest punt play on DraftKings. He’s priced at the minimum, and he logged more than 20 minutes in Game 1. He’s currently projected for 18.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and he should be able to crack double-digits with that much playing time.
