We truly believe here at FantasyLabs that we have the most unique tools and data available to DFS users. However, we also realize that those tools and data are only as awesome and helpful as our ability to communicate effectively how to use everything. As such, we will continually listen to feedback of what you need and try our best to teach our subscribers how to use all of the cool things we have to offer.

With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles each weekday that walk subscribers through an important trend for that day’s slate of games, created with our Trends tool.

NBA Trend of the Day: Late-Season Production by Team Win Percentage

At this point in the NBA season, teams have basically separated into three groups. First, you have the elite teams like the Warriors, who are really just killing time until the postseason starts. For teams in this position, the biggest priority is keeping everybody healthy in preparation for a title run. Next, you have the playoff hopefuls – these are teams that are still jostling for position in the playoff picture. These next handful of games still hold meaning for teams in this group. Finally, there are the lottery teams, who have no real incentive to try and win games at this juncture of the season.

Over the last 10 games of the season, how might a player’s fantasy production be affected by his team’s spot in the standings? Fortunately, we can use our NBA Trends tool to find out.

Step 1: Projections > Proj Minutes > Set “20 to 48”

Setting a minutes requirement is important with most Trends, but I think it is especially important here. If we are expecting the elite teams to rest their superstars, maybe players projected in the 10-15 minute range will do well in terms of Plus/Minus. That would skew the overall numbers as the result of players who probably aren’t on a DFS player’s radar.

Step 2: Team Filters > Team Win % > Set “0 to 46”

You can really use your own discretion with how you want to define good and bad teams. Personally, I’m going to label “bad teams” as those with a winning percentage under .460.

 

Step 3 > Time Filters > Game Number > Set “72 to 82”

Now, let’s look at the last 10 games of the season. As you can see, “Bad Teams” add exactly one fantasy point per game over the last 10 games of the season. However, the “Average Expected Points” is actually lower. This pretty much confirms what we suspected – lottery teams are resting their top players and as a result, value plays are dominating.

 

Just to be sure, let’s add a salary filter.

Step 4 > Player Filters > Salary > Set “$6,000 to $12,000”

 

Players who cost $6,000 or more on FanDuel in this result set lose about a fantasy point and a half. The +1.98 score is still decent overall though.

Step 5 > Remove Salary Filter

For comparison’s sake, I repeated the first three steps while changing the team’s winning percentage each time. Here are the results:

 

Before working on this Trend, I had expected the “In the Hunt” group (Winning Percentage of 48 to 58) to perform the best. These teams still have an incentive for playing their starters heavy minutes. That’s not really reflected in the results, however, as the Plus/Minus is over a full fantasy point below the “Bad Teams” group.

 

Finally, elite teams whose winning percentage exceeds .600 had the lowest overall Plus/Minus over the last 10 games at +2.21.

So, what type of teams make for the safest targets late in the year? Looking at both players from all salary ranges and then isolating players that cost $6,000 or more, “Bad Teams” had the highest results in Plus/Minus and Consistency.