We truly believe here at FantasyLabs that we have the most unique tools and data available to DFS users. However, we also realize that those tools and data are only as awesome and helpful as our ability to communicate effectively how to use everything. As such, we will continually listen to feedback of what you need and try our best to teach our subscribers how to use all of the cool things we have to offer.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles each weekday that walk subscribers through an important trend for that day’s slate of games, created with our Trends tool.
NBA Trend of the Day: FanDuel Players with a Low Bargain Rating and a Projected Ceiling of At Least 50
Before getting into today’s trend, do you guys want to hear a story about a time when I used to stock shelves as a teenager? Since I began writing here, I have found that the cool thing about asking questions to people who aren’t able to answer is that I get to assume an answer — and I assume that the answer now is “Yes, of course we want to hear a story.” Sweet, let’s get into story time.
When I was 15 or 16 years old I got a job at a local supermarket. I would work after school a few nights each week to make a little money so I could afford to buy stuff. You know — normal high-school kid stuff like books for some innocent afterschool fun.
I remember only one thing that I learned from working there, and that lesson came when I was stocking one of my favorite foods to eat (but least favorite to stock): macaroni and cheese.
Mac and cheese sucked to stock because each night there would be a large quantity that would need to be replenished and the packaging is relatively small. I would need to use the pricing gun to put a price tag on each individual box, and despite having one of the quickest draws in the entire Massachusetts supermarket scene I still found the exercise to be a real pain in the a**. From the countless times I have put a pricing sticker on those boxes, I remember that the Kraft macaroni and cheese was 89 cents and that it never seemed to have a problem selling. One day I came in to work and there was an unusually large amount of mac and cheese that needed to be stocked: We were running a sale and apparently expected to sell more boxes than usual. I went to the aisle and saw that the individual prices had changed. All along the aisle were these tiny “sale” signs that read, “Kraft Macaroni and Cheese: 10 for $10.”
At first I thought that maybe the book that I had read on the way to work that day was unusually potent and inhibiting my perception. Nope. The supermarket had raised the price on mac and cheese 11 cents and dressed up the price hike as a sale.
The boxes flew off the shelves.
What really struck me was that people didn’t seem to realize that they didn’t need to buy 10 boxes in order to get the $1/box “discount.” They could buy two for $2.00, five or $5.00, or eight for $8.00. Instead, people would stroll through the aisle, see the “10 for $10” sign, and then throw 10 boxes into their cart. Not only were people now paying 11 cents more per box, but they were also buying more boxes than they typically would.
There were a few things I learned that day.
- I should do a little less “reading” on the way work.
- People love a bargain, or at least the idea that they are getting one.
- Being under the impression that you are getting a bargain, does not, in fact, mean that you are getting one.
In DFS, not all bargains are the same. Some aren’t even bargains. Being price-sensitive makes a lot of sense in cash games, but in a large field tournament it may be worth being less price-sensitive to gain access to a player who may have otherwise gone overlooked. When everyone else is focusing on the (perceived) value of the Kraft macaroni and cheese, we might be able to sneak in and take down a tournament with the less popular store brand. In an effort not to be a prisoner of the bargain, let’s see if there is any worth in players with a low Bargain Rating and a high projected ceiling. Hopefully we can still find some value.
Step 1: Trends > Bargain Rating > Set to “0 to 49”
As expected, having a negative Bargain Rating has not been a profitable situation for players, as it results in an average Plus/Minus of -1.04.
But we aren’t done yet. Let’s take a look at what happens when we look only at players who have a negative Bargain Rating coupled with a projected ceiling of at least 50.
Step 2: Projections > Ceiling > Set to “50 to 88”
Finally, our trend looks like this.
We are left with a count of 1,474, a Plus/Minus of +2.11, and Consistency of 56.2 percent. Not bad for targeting some players who may not appear to be a bargain when held up against the salary of another site.
Here are tonight’s current matches.
There we have it. We did a very similar trend last Friday, when we looked at players on FanDuel with a high Bargain Rating (50-99) and a projected ceiling of at least 50 points. That trend had a Plus/Minus of +3.13, just over a full point better than the trend for today.
That shows us that when looking for a player with a high ceiling, it does pay off to get them at a bargain, but I still think that when considering ownership in guaranteed prize pools you may be rewarded by forgoing the bargains and rostering players who likely will have reduced ownership percentages. When everyone is chasing the bargain and upside that is Kraft macaroni and cheese, there is nothing wrong with occasionally enjoying some store-brand where there is still plenty of upside to be found.
Have a good weekend!
Disclaimer: This NBA Trend of the Day is for DFS use only. In real life, you should always go Kraft. Specifically the spirals or ones shaped as cartoons.
